Annual power ranking of US launch companies finds a shake-up at the bottom
Movers and shakers Annual power ranking of US launch companies finds a shake-up at the bottom No. 1 should come as no surprise, but we bet you won't guess no. 10. Eric Berger Jan 7, 2025 7:00 am | 0 A long-range tracking camera captured this stunning view of Starship hot staging, with the upper stage engines firing at the same time of booster separation. Credit: SpaceX A long-range tracking camera captured this stunning view of Starship hot staging, with the upper stage engines firing at the same time of booster separation. Credit: SpaceX Story textSizeSmallStandardLargeWidth *StandardWideLinksStandardOrange* Subscribers only Learn moreOnce again, we're back with our annual power ranking of US launch companies. 2024 was the third year Ars compiled a list of the most accomplished rocket companies in the United States with the goal of sparking debate, discussion, and appreciation for the challenge of operating a successful launch company.This is a difficult business, both technically and financially. We salute all the engineers, technicians, and business development people out there giving this industry a go.Please note that this is a subjective list, although hard metrics such as total launches, tonnage to orbit, success rate, and more were all important factors in our decisions. And our focus remains on what each company accomplished in 2024, not on what they might do in the future.1. SpaceX (no change from last year)There can be no doubt about the number one slot for 2024.SpaceX flew nearly as many Falcon rockets as times NASA flew the Space Shuttle over the course of three decades. In addition to flying 134 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy missions in 2024, SpaceX also launched its massive experimental Starship rocket four times, even catching the first stage on one of those occasions.SpaceX has become much more than a launch company in the last five years, both in terms of human spaceflight with the Dragon spacecraft and broadband connectivity and its Starlink Internet constellation. This summer, Dragon was called upon to fly Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back from the International Space Station after NASA was uncertain of the Starliner spacecraft's safety. With Starlink, SpaceX operates a profitable network composed of more satellites than the rest of the world operates combined.2. United Launch Alliance (+1)ULA returns to the second spot for 2024 after finally delivering its new Vulcan rocket to orbit in January. In addition to two Vulcan launches, the company also flew its final Delta IV Heavy rocket in April and flew two Atlas V missions. The launches were successful, although the second Vulcan launch in October required an investigation after a solid rocket motor nozzle broke apart during flight.Let's be real: Five launches in a calendar year is not sustainable from a business standpoint, and it's not where ULA had hoped to be. In February 2023, ULA chief executive Tory Bruno said during a roundtable with reporters, "We have to ramp up. Before the end of 2025 we expect to be really at a tempo, which is flying a couple of times a month, every two weeks." So far, the company is still only flying every two months, but it does look set to increase that cadence starting this year. A dozen launches in 2025 would be a good step up. The first Vulcan rocket fires off its launch pad in Florida in January 2024. Credit: United Launch Alliance The first Vulcan rocket fires off its launch pad in Florida in January 2024. Credit: United Launch Alliance 3. Rocket Lab (-1)A strong case could be made to have kept Rocket Lab at the No. 2 spot from a year ago. The company broke its previous launch record by 60 percent with a total of 16 Electron missions. Rocket Lab also did not have any launch failures. The company's work on Electron shows there remains a solid amount of demand for a reliable small launch vehicle and that Rocket Lab is continuing to improve its operations practices.That experience will be important as the company continues the development of the medium-lift Neutron rocket. There is plenty of demand in the market for a non-SpaceX medium-lift rocket, and if the company can land and reuse the first stage, that will be a bonus. The question is when Neutron will be ready. Rocket Lab continues to target 2025 for the rocket's debut, but if history is any guide, delivering on that launch date will require beating the odds. It will be a storyline to follow.4. Blue Origin (+2)This is the first time Blue Origin has reached the top five of this list. One may believe it is unwarranted, as the company has yet to fly an orbital payload yet. But it was a solid year for the company's New Shepard spacecraft, which flew three human missions and a cargo-only mission. A highlight was flying Ed Dwight into space in May. So after a failure in September 2022 put New Shepard offline for more than a year, the company's suborbital rocket is back.More importantly, though, Blue Origin finally began to execute its New Glenn program with some urgency under new chief executive Dave Limp. Although the massive rocket did not ultimately launch in 2024, the company has nonetheless delivered the vehicle to the launch pad. Moreover, it has components of the second and third vehicles in an advanced state of readiness in its large Florida factory. This year may be the year of Blue Originfinally! Dave Limp, Blue Origin's new CEO, and founder Jeff Bezos observe the New Glenn rocket on its launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. Credit: Jeff Bezos via Instagram Dave Limp, Blue Origin's new CEO, and founder Jeff Bezos observe the New Glenn rocket on its launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. Credit: Jeff Bezos via Instagram 5. Firefly (-1)Firefly has a lot of things going for it: an in-space propulsion unit, a lunar lander, and a survivor's mentality. Moreover, after 2024, it's clear that the company's Alpha rocket has won the 1-ton wars, outlasting Relativity Space and ABL Space to successfully launch and commercialize a rocket that can loft about 1 metric ton to low-Earth orbit. But so far, the company has struggled to reach an operational cadence. In 2024, the Alpha rocket launched just one time, successfully, putting eight CubeSats into low-Earth orbit for NASA in July.However, one important advantage Firefly has is its propulsion business. The company manufactures the Reaver engines for its Alpha rocket, and it's making substantial progress on the larger Miranda rocket engine to power a medium-lift rocket. This engine will power the Antares 300 rocket for Northrop Grumman and an unnamed medium-lift vehicle the two companies are developing together. If Firefly can continue to execute, the pieces are there for future success.6. Northrop Grumman (-1)In terms of pure launch statistics, 2024 was not a great year for Northrop. The company's sole launch was a suborbital Minotaur I rocket for the US Air Forcefrom Vandenberg Space Force Base in Juneas part of an ICBM readiness test. Northrop's Cygnus spacecraft did reach orbit twice, ferrying supplies to the International Space Station. Unfortunately, it did so both times on competitor SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, as Northrop is still working to find a replacement for the Antares 230+ rocket.Northrop was forced to forgo the Antares 230+ rocket after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the rocket's engines were built in Russia, and the first stage was manufactured in Ukraine. Hence, the company's partnership with Firefly to provide Miranda engines and construct a first stage for a newer version of Antares. If all goes well, that rocket will make its debut flight with a Cygnus spacecraft this summer. But since when does everything go right in rocket development?7. Stoke Space (+2)In 2023, Stoke Space demonstrated the viability of its novel upper stage with hop tests in Washington. In 2024, the company made progress on the development of the first stage of the Nova rocket, which is intended to be fully reusable. By the end of the year, Stoke hot-fired a 'Block 2' version of the first stage engine. Seven of the methalox engines will power a rocket that is intended to lift about 5 metric tons into low-Earth orbit.Every other entity on this list has launched a rocket before, so Stoke Space remains here on promise rather than what it has actually delivered. But as we head into 2025, the company appears to be making a lot of the right moves, including pushing for full reusability right out of the gate, setting up a launch site at Cape Canaveral and hiring well within the industry. Although Stoke is unlikely to launch its Nova rocket this year, I wouldn't entirely rule it out. Stoke Space fires up the second version of its main engine in December. Credit: Stoke Space Stoke Space fires up the second version of its main engine in December. Credit: Stoke Space 8. Relativity Space (-1)Relativity launched its first rocket in March 2023, and the Terran 1 vehicle had a nominal first stage performance. However, after this mission, the company shelved the smaller vehicle to put all of its resources into the much larger and more ambitious Terran R rocket. It has not been an easy transition, and the pivot has taken some of the shine off of the company. Its recent fundraising efforts appear to have been lackluster compared to its earlier rounds.In September, Ars published a lengthy feature about where the company is headed. It's fairly sobering, as a company that once aspired to 3D-print nearly the entirety of its rockets now is sourcing some key components from suppliers in Europe. Worryingly, a planned event this fall by chief executive Tim Ellis to release more information about Terran R's development has not gone off. It's fair to ask whether Relativity Space will be on this list at all next year.9. Astra (unranked)Guess who's back, back again? Astra's back, tell a friend. In October, Astrawhich last launched in June 2022announced that it had won a Department of Defense contract valued up to $44 million for launch services. To be clear, Astra is not all the way back yet. The company remains in the phase of building and testing rocket stages and engines and does not have a launch vehicle ready to go. Its new booster, Rocket 4, will launch no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2025.However, it is nice to see a resurrection of sorts for a company that I and many others left for dead. Ultimate success will depend on how chief executive Chris Kemp's fundraising goes and how the technological work progresses. But the near-term goal for Astra is to develop a mobile launch capability by which the rocket can be delivered to a concrete launch pad in two cargo containers and the ground support equipment and consumables in five additional containers by barge, train, or truck. Responsive launch is what the Department of Defense is interested in.10. USC Rocket Propulsion LabThe University of Southern California Rocket Propulsion Lab is not a company. Rather, it is a student group. However, this year, the students at the prestigious aerospace school did something that only a handful of companies did in 2024: launch a rocket into space. In November, the lab's Aftershock II mission reached an altitude of 470,000 feet (143 km), shattering the previous non-governmental and non-commercial record of 380,000 feet set by Civilian Space Exploration Team back in 2004.The Rocket Propulsion Lab remains the first and only student group ever to cross the Krmn line, which it accomplished in 2019 for the first time. Think about it this way: In the United States last year, only SpaceX, ULA, Rocket Lab, and Firefly launched something to a higher altitude. The USC group may not be a company, but in a few years, these students will make some US launch companies very happy with their talents.Dropped outTwo companies that made our power rankings in 2023 have dropped out. One of these, Virgin Galactic, flew to space twice with its suborbital space plane. However, after those flights, the company halted its operations with VSS Unity as it awaits the more reusable delta-class spaceships. Whether those vehicles will fly in 2025, 2026, or ever is yet to be seen. The other company on the list, ABL Space, is moving away from launch.Frankly, it's becoming difficult to identify 10 credible US launch companies at this point. There remain some US companies in various states of launch vehicle development, including Phantom Space, Evolution Space, Exos Aerospace, Vaya Space, Deep Space Transport LLC (which sounds like it is on life support, if it exists at all), and other companies. But absent a rocket at the pad, it's difficult to have too much confidence in any of these players.Finally, I was also hoping for memorable antics from Pythom Space this year, but alas, the last update on its website is a post to wish everyone a Happy New Year from early January 2024.Eric BergerSenior Space EditorEric BergerSenior Space Editor Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA policy, and author of two books: Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX; and Reentry, on the development of the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. 0 Comments