After a dramatic week that saw both the third anniversary of the war in Ukraine and an unprecedented flurry of diplomatic activity, its becoming possible to see what a real if far from ideal agreement to end the bloody conflict might look like. But to know whether an agreement is actually achievable or realistic would require being inside the heads of two of the most inscrutable men on the planet: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. This week, Washington and Kyiv reached a deal to exploit Ukraines mineral resources. A plan emerged for a potential European peacekeeping force to be deployed to Ukraine after the war is over. And a visit to Washington by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is imminent. Both developments suggest Ukraine and European countries are working to make the best of a situation where the US can no longer be counted on to be on Ukraines side. Can minerals save the US-Ukraine relationship? Last week, relations between the US and Ukraine seemed to have reached a nadir.The US dispatched senior negotiators to meet their Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine present breaking a longstanding promise. The US tried to get Zelenskyy to sign over half of Ukraines critical minerals as reimbursement for past American support. Trump referred to Zelenskyy as a dictator for not holding elections during wartime. (He later declined to apply the same description to Putin.)Then, on Monday, signs of a major pro-Russian shift continued: The US twice sided with Russia over Ukraine and its European allies at the United Nations. First, the US voted to oppose a resolution in the general assembly that condemned Russias invasion. Then it supported a resolution in the security council that called for an end to the conflict but contained no criticism of Russia. But then, on Tuesday, the US and Ukraine signed a revised version of the long-promised minerals deal. Zelenskyy will travel to the US on Friday to sign the agreement. Ukraine is believed to have significant reserves of critical minerals like lithium and graphite, as well as rare earth metals, such as scandium and neodymium. China currently dominates the supply chains for these minerals, which have a variety of high-tech applications. (Some analysts are skeptical that Ukraines reserves are really as large as is being advertised.) A significant amount of these reserves are believed to be in territory currently occupied by Russia, and Putin was quick to say this week that he would also be open to a partnership with the US to develop them. Before Trump took office, Ukrainian officials hoped to leverage the countrys mineral wealth to ensure future US support. This was not an unreasonable plan, given Trumps interest in controlling mineral-rich territories like Greenland, but it appears to have backfired. Rather than an enticement for future support, Trump viewed Ukraines resources as payback for past US aid. (Trump has repeatedly claimed the US has provided Ukraine with $300 billion or $350 billion in aid. Independent estimates put the real number at around $120 billion.)Two weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly presented Zelenskyy with a deal that included a demand that Ukraine turn over 50 percent of revenue from future mineral extraction to the US, up to $500 billion. Bessent demanded that Zelenskyy sign immediately without consultations. It was Zelenskyys refusal to sign that led to Trumps public sniping at the Ukrainian leader. On Tuesday, Ukraine and the US agreed to a new version of the deal that drops this requirement and instead establishes a joint fund for the management of those resources. Officials say this is only a framework agreement and no money is actually changing hands. (Some analysts are skeptical any ever will.) The deal also, which seems crafted to be deliberately vague, critically, does not include any security guarantees or pledges of future military aid. But Ukrainian officials are hopeful it will put them in a stronger negotiating position with the Trump administration going forward, and improve the tenor of the relationship after last weeks sniping. Can Europe keep the peace?The British and French are promoting a plan for a European reassurance force to be deployed to Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron, currently the European leader with the most experience dealing with Trump, visited the White House on Monday for talks on Ukraine with Trump. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will follow suit on Thursday. Whether the reassurance force is actually reassuring to anyone may depend on how much risk of a wider conflict Ukraines partners are now willing to take.The plan, which is still being developed, would likely involve less than 30,000 troops from several European countries and focus on air and maritime power. Its unlikely to impress the Russians numerically: At this point, Ukraine already has the largest and most experienced ground forces in Europe. But the idea is that Russia might think twice about violating a ceasefire if, by doing so, they risked direct conflict with western militaries. The US is supportive of the idea of a European peacekeeping force. Britain and France insist, however, that the force would have to come with a US backstop. What that means hasnt been fully defined, but it likely would mean they would want the US to provide air support if the troops came under attack.Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth seemed to rule out a US role in the peacekeeping force in his recent speech to the Munich Security Conference. But when Trump was asked by reporters about US backing for the force following his meeting with Macron, he didnt entirely dismiss the idea: Were going to have a backing of some kind and obviously, the European countries are going to be involved and I dont think youre going to need much backing. I think thats not going to be a problem. Once an agreement is signed, Russia is going to get back to its business and Ukraine and Europe are going to get back to their business. Trump also said he had been personally told by Putin that the Russian leader would be willing to accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine after the war a claim the Russian government quickly denied. Not everyone is on board with the plan. The German and Polish governments are skeptical; Zelenskyy has said a force of 100,000 to 150,000 troops backed by the US would be required. But given that these troops are envisioned less as an actual military deterrent than as a tripwire, the key question is not how many of them there will be its what the countries sending them will do if they get attacked.Since the beginning of the war, Ukraines backers including both the Europeans and the US have had two priorities: assisting the Ukrainians in fighting the Russians, and preventing a wider war between Russia and its nuclear armed adversaries in the West. The second priority has often outweighed the first. (Theres such involvement from other countries and it could really lead to a very big war, World War III, and were not going to let that happen either, Trump said on Monday.) Whether the reassurance force is actually reassuring to anyone may depend on how much risk of a wider conflict Ukraines partners are now willing to take.A potential deal is emerging. Does anyone want it?An agreement that freezes the current front line in place, and includes a European peacekeeping force with some level of US support, might be hard for Ukraine to turn down. Leaving territory under Russian occupation would be a painful sacrifice, but polls show most Ukrainians now favor negotiations to end the war rather than fighting on until victoryStill, Ukrainian officials are inherently skeptical of agreements with Russia, arguing that Moscow violated previous agreements to respect their sovereignty in 1994 and 2014. Ukraine had hoped for NATO membership or NATO-lite security guarantees from the US: assurance that, if they were attacked again, the US would join the fight. Those now appear to be off the table. Some have suggested the US and Ukraine could instead pursue an Israel model partnership: The US is not bound by law to come to Israels defense, but it is required to provide Israel with military capabilities to maintain its qualitative military edge over its rivals.The fear, as always, is that a ceasefire will simply give Russia time to regroup for another attack, this one aimed at snuffing out Ukraines political independence entirely. Ukraine, of course, could reject a US-backed deal, and continue to fight on, but that might mean doing without US military systems like Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS rocket launchers, and Elon Musks Starlink satellite system, which have been critical to their war effort. All of this, of course, assumes that Putin is actually interested in ending the war. Russian officials, like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, insist they are not interested in a quick deal and will keep fighting until Ukraines political drift toward the West in recent years and NATOs involvement in Eastern Europe are addressed. Given the existential stakes Putin has attached to this war, analysts are skeptical Russia would be willing to stop fighting on terms that would be acceptable even to this administration. Still, there are signs that Russias offensive momentum on the ground in Ukraine has slowed, that it is taking heavy casualties and losing equipment, is having difficulties recruiting new troops, and that its economy is showing signs of strain. There are reasons for Russia to quit while its ahead. The Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War noted one recent concession from Moscow: In a recent interview, Putin seemed to acknowledge that Zelenskyy would be Russias future negotiating partner. Russia had previously maintained that Zelenskyy was not a legitimate leader because Ukraine did not hold elections in 2024. Still, Russia could participate in talks with the aim of dragging them out indefinitely and pressing its advantage on the battlefield. With a new US administration aping Kremlin talking points to an extent even the Russians seem to find baffling, Putin may see this as a time not to settle but to see what more he can get. Trump had said prior to taking office that he was willing to increase aid to Ukraine in order to get Russia to agree to a deal. Its unclear whether that possibility is still on the table or what Trump will do if a ceasefire isnt reached soon. For weeks, Ukrainian and European officials thought they understood the administrations approach, only for Trump to completely flip the script following a phone call with Putin this month. Its not out of the question it could flip again.See More: