The Saudis discussed buying the F-35 stealth fighter as part of a major agreement to purchase US arms. Here, a Saudi F-15 fighter escorts Air Force One to Riyadh on May 13. Brian Snyder/REUTERS 2025-05-15T13:47:14Z Save Saved Read in app This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now. Have an account? A US-Saudi arms agreement may get complicated when it comes to Lockheed Martin's F-35 The F-35 could put Saudi Arabia's military on par with Israel in what may be a dealbreaker. The Saudis may also buy advanced US drones and missile defenses as part of the agreement. During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump signed what the White House described as "the largest defense sales agreement in history," valued at almost $142 billion, that will provide the kingdom "state-of-the-art warfighting equipment and services." The offer, the final value of which may ultimately prove much less than $142 billion, is expected to include Lockheed Martin's C-130 Hercules transport aircraft and other unspecified missiles and radars. Neither the White House nor administration officials have provided further details about which specific systems the deal may include, such as the advanced fighter Riyadh has wanted.The two sides discussed a potential Saudi purchase of the F-35 Lightning II stealth strike fighter and Israel's qualitative military edge came up, Reuters reported Tuesday. The Saudis have sought the F-35 for years since it's one of the world's top fighter jets that could put the kingdom's armed forces on par with Israel, the only Middle Eastern country currently flying that fifth-generation combat aircraft. Washington is legally obligated to preserve Israel's military advantage by, among other things, not selling military hardware to regional countries that are as or more advanced than Israel's arsenal. Unlike the neighboring United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia has not joined the Abraham Accords by normalizing ties with Israel and refuses to do so amid the ongoing war in Gaza."I think an F-35 deal could be agreed upon even absent Saudi-Israeli normalization," Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told Business Insider. "However, to proceed with the F-35 package, it would have to be significantly downgraded to preserve Israel's qualitative military edge." "Such downgrades might diminish the overall sale's attractiveness to the Saudis."Israel took delivery of three F-35s in March, bringing its total fleet strength to 42. It will field 75 eventually. Washington may not agree to sell Riyadh a comparable number, and it may impose limits on their use."I don't think numbers alone will be sufficient, as the Israelis will be concerned that such systems could eventually end up in the hands of adversaries," Bohl said. "Rather, I think we would likely see technical restrictions and end-use requirements that would severely limit the usage of F-35s by the Saudis and reduce their capabilities against the Israelis."Israel's F-35I Adir is a unique version of the stealth aircraft that Israel modifies with indigenous weapons and systems. Therefore, the Adir is arguably already more advanced than any standard F-35A model Saudi Arabia might acquire.Ultimately, it is Israel's arch-rival Iran that may have more concerns over the prospect of Saudi F-35s.Any F-35 acquisition could give Saudi Arabia the "ability to conduct deep strikes in Iran" in ways far greater than presently possible with their current fleet of non-stealthy 4.5-generation F-15s, noted Sebastien Roblin, a widely published military-aviation journalist. Such an acquisition could also "substantially enhance" Saudi airpower and enable Riyadh to participate in any US or Israeli bombing campaign against Iran."I can see such an acquisition affecting the perceived regional balance of power vis-à-vis Tehran," Roblin told BI."That said, in a large-scale conflict, questions would arise about the vulnerability of these aircraft to Iranian strikes when they landed," Roblin said. "And whether these countries could acquire enough F-35s with enough munitions and muster sufficient professionalism and support assets to minimize risks of combat losses." F-35 Lightning II fighters entered service with the US Air Force in 2016. U.S. Air Force photo/Master Sgt. Ben Mota Riyadh may not prioritize acquiring the F-35 and seek other advanced American armaments.The US is much more open to exporting advanced drones to Middle Eastern countries than just a few years ago, when Washington largely followed the range and payload limitations suggested by the Missile Technology Control Regime for exported systems.Before Trump's trip, Washington green-lighted a potential sale of MQ-9B drones to Qatar. General Atomics is expected to offer Saudi Arabia MQ-9B SeaGuardians as part of a "huge" package deal."I think the weakening of end-use restrictions will certainly make the Americans more eager to strike deals to sell their drones to the region," RANE's Bohl said. "American drones will still need to compete against Turkish and Chinese drones that may be cheaper and have fewer political strings attached."When Washington previously declined Middle East requests for advanced American drones, China stepped in and supplied its drones throughout the region in the 2010s. In the 2020s, Saudi Arabia and the UAE signed lucrative contracts with Turkey for its indigenous Bayraktar drones."I wouldn't expect a major surge in American drone exports to the region at this point, but rather for them to become part of this region's drone diversification strategy," Bohl said. "Certainly, there will be notable deals struck in the coming years, but China and Turkey will continue to be formidable competitors in the drone arena in the Arab Gulf states."The White House mentioned that the $142 billion agreement includes "air and missile defense.""If we are looking at recent trends, they should be focusing on air defenses, including deeper stocks of interceptor missiles, and diversification of air defenses to cost-efficiently combat lower-end threats as well as high-end ones," Roblin said.Saudi Arabia already operates advanced US Patriot air defense missiles and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, which can target ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. It completed its first locally manufactured components of the latter system mere days before Trump's visit. Riyadh may seek similar co-production deals to aid in developing its domestic arms industry."There's a need for more long-distance precision strike weapons in the form of missiles and drones, which can be used without risking expensive manned combat aircraft," Roblin said. "There should be some parallel interest at sea, where we've seen Ukraine and the Houthis successfully execute sea denial strategies, one that Iran might seek to imitate in the confined waters of the Gulf.""Thus, the homework of Gulf navies is to ensure their vessels have the sensors and self-defense weapons to cope with small boat threats and cruise and ballistic missiles."Saudi Arabia has already taken steps to expand its navy with more advanced warships in recent years. RANE's Bohl believes Trump may persuade the kingdom to "purchase big-ticket items like warships" as he attempts to "revitalize the manufacturing sector" in the US.Only a fraction of this $142 billion agreement may result in completed deals — as was the case with the series of letters of intent for $110 billion worth of arms sales Trump signed with Riyadh in 2017."These deals involve optioning huge defense sales, but Trump will present these to his supporters as done deals," Roblin said. "So, the Gulf states can gift Trump a large number as a political victory without actually having to pay anywhere near the whole bill.""For the 2017 defense deal, by the following year, Riyadh reportedly had bought only $14.5 billion out of $110 billion optioned."Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region. Recommended video

What’s the opposite of a “bear hug”?That was the phrase often used to describe President Joe Biden’s approach to Israel since the October 7, 2023 attacks: publicly and enthusiastically backing Israel, particularly when it comes to its wider regional conflict with Iran and its proxies, while quietly trying to restrain Israel’s actions in Gaza. Now President Donald Trump is traveling through the Middle East this week for a multi-country tour and dealmaking bonanza that pointedly does not include a stop in Israel. (Trump has denied the snub, saying his trip is “very good for Israel.”)The trip is the latest example of how Trump’s approach to the country often seems like a mirror image of his predecessor’s: he has little interest in restraining or pressuring Israel on its war in Gaza, but perhaps even less interest in supporting Israel on wider regional issues or aligning the two countries’ approach to the region. This is still an administration that is fiercely “pro-Israel” in rhetoric and in its willingness to punish Israel’s critics in America. But in practice, as he conducts his foreign policy, Trump seems remarkably unconcerned about what Israel has to say about it. “The one message that’s consistent [from Trump] is ‘I have plans for the region. You’re welcome to be a partner, but if you prefer to be ignored, go ahead,’” said Nimrod Novik, former foreign policy adviser to the late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres. This is not the Trump Israel was expectingWhen Trump was reelected last November, the response from the Israeli government was near rapturous. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had an often fraught relationship with Biden’s administration, praised Trump for “history’s greatest comeback” and predicted a “powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”It’s not hard to figure out why Netanyahu was so optimistic. During his first term, Trump, who often describes himself as the most pro-Israel president in history, took a number of precedent-smashing steps to demonstrate that support, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, which is not considered the country’s capital by most of the international community, and recognizing Israel’s sovereignty over the disputed Golan Heights.His first term included the Abraham Accords — a series of deals, mediated by the United States, normalizing relations between Israel and a number of Arab countries — as well as the scrapping of President Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal, loathed by Netanyahu’s government. Even by the standards of the US-Israel relationship, Trump’s approach stood out for its unconditional support. There were early indications that the second term would bring more of the same. For his ambassador to Israel, Trump picked Mike Huckabee, a Christian Zionist whose views on Israeli-Palestinian issues would put him on the far right even in Israeli politics. One of Trump’s most notable domestic initiatives so far has been a widespread crackdown on universities and activists over last year’s anti-Israel protests. Nor has his White House engaged in much Biden-style soul-searching about Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza: Trump quickly lifted the limited restrictions on arms exports to Israel and sanctions on violent West Bank settlers that Biden had put in place. His suggestion that Gaza be “cleaned out” of its Palestinian inhabitants to make room for a resort was received ecstatically by the Israeli far right. But when it comes to the Middle East, writ large, it’s been a different story. Trump seems remarkably unconcerned about appearing to be on the same page as the Israelis in his approach to the region, and has repeatedly negotiated directly with Israel’s main adversaries while cutting Israel out entirely.In early March, Axios reported that Trump’s envoy for hostage affairs, Adam Boehler, had been negotiating with Hamas over the release of American hostages — without coordinating with Israel, and breaking a longstanding precedent of the US refraining from direct talks with the terrorist group. The news created a firestorm of controversy and Boehler was removed from the talks, but just this week, Hamas agreed to release the last surviving American hostage, Edan Alexander. The negotiations that led to the release, led by Trump’s all-purpose foreign envoy Steve Witkoff, reportedly came after Hamas reached out via an “Arab Americans for Trump” group. Israel learned about the talks not from the White House, but from its own intelligence services. It was not the only surprise Netanyahu has gotten recently. During an Oval Office meeting with the prime minister last month, Trump dropped the surprise announcement that he was dispatching Witkoff and other negotiators to begin direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program. Netanyahu, who learned of the talks only after arriving in Washington, DC, has pushed the US to insist on a complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. But officials including the secretary of state and vice president have suggested they might be open to Iran maintaining some type of civilian nuclear program — effectively returning to a similar framework to the one Trump tore up in 2018. And while Israel welcomed Trump’s decision in March to step up the US air campaign against the Houthis, the Yemeni militant group that has been firing missiles and drones at Israel as well as ships traveling through the Red Sea since the start of the Gaza war, Trump abruptly announced an end to the bombing earlier this month. He said he had received assurances from the Houthis that they would refrain from attacking US ships. (The rate at which the campaign was burning through American money and munitions also probably played a role.) Trump’s announcement made no mention of Israel, even though the Houthis had attacked Tel Aviv’s airport days earlier. The message was unmistakable: Israel could deal with the Houthis on their own. All in all, the Trump administration has been in direct talks with three of Israel’s main adversaries — Hamas, Iran, and the Houthis — to cut deals without Israel’s input, a nearly unprecedented situation according to longtime observers of relations between the two countries.“I don’t think there’s an administration, Democrat or Republican, that has even come close to undertaking the sort independent outreach that the Trump administration has now contrived over the course of the last three months,” said Aaron David Miller, a veteran Mideast peace negotiator who served in several US administrations. A changing GOP meets a changing Middle EastWhat explains the new frostiness in the US-Israel relationship? One answer may be that Trump is simply growing frustrated with Netanyahu. If there’s one consistent theme in Trump’s worldview, it’s skepticism about allies that, as he sees it, take more from America than they give. During his Oval Office meeting with Netanyahu, Trump brushed aside a suggestion that he should lift tariffs on Israel, saying “We give Israel $4 billion a year. That’s a lot. Congratulations, by the way.” Some Trump critics in the US have been crediting him for his approach to the relationship. The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman praised the president for realizing that “Netanyahu is not our friend,” while former Bernie Sanders foreign policy adviser Matt Duss credited him with handling “Netanyahu more effectively than alleged foreign policy expert Joe Biden did.” Netanyahu himself is probably not the only factor here. The second Trump term has also seen the rise in influence of the so-called “restrainer” wing of Republican foreign policy, who want to reduce America’s military footprint abroad, especially in the Middle East, at the expense of traditional hawks. While not uniformly anti-Israel (though some outside Trump allies like Tucker Carlson would probably qualify), the restrainers are much less inclined to think that US and Israeli interests are aligned. Vice President JD Vance, for instance, has stated that while Israel has a right to defend itself, he doesn’t believe the US should be drawn into a war with Iran. Trump’s speech in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, which included pointed shots at “neocons” and “nation builders,” may have been an indication of which faction is winning the battle for influence. And according to reporting by the Washington Post, former national security adviser Mike Waltz, one of Trump’s most traditionally hawkish advisers, was fired in early May in part because of Trump’s anger that Waltz had been in communication with the Israeli government about using military force against Iran. This is also not the same Middle East that Trump dealt with last time around. Israel isn’t the only longstanding US ally getting snubbed on Trump’s trip; previous presidents might have been expected to make a stop in Egypt or Jordan. But Trump is making a beeline for the Gulf, home of lucrative arms and computer chip deals, not to mention golf resorts and free 747s.During Trump’s first term, the Saudis and Emiratis were more or less aligned with the US and Israel on wider regional security matters — namely, the perceived danger posed by Iran. This was the context that made the Emiratis’ recognition of Israel in the Abraham Accords possible. This time, when Trump sits down with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, he’s likely to hear a different story. The Saudis and Iranians have reached a detente, and both Gulf countries have tried to extricate themselves from the long and brutal conflict with the Houthis in Yemen. Both now support a deal with Iran that would avoid war, and both supported an end to the US campaign against the Houthis. They’re also increasingly frustrated with Israel’s war in Gaza and the anger it has provoked throughout the region, including in their own populations. The scenes coming out of Gaza have raised the costs of appearing to be aligned with Israel.“Both MBS and MBZ have his respect. He listens to them,” said Novik, now a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, of the Saudi and Emirati leaders. “They believe that what happens in Gaza doesn’t stay in Gaza. It’s destabilizing the region, and that’s bad for business.” All indications are that Trump is these days more interested in what he calls the “gleaming marvels of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi” than the winding streets of Jerusalem. A case in point: both the first Trump administration and the Biden team sought a major regional deal that would tie US nuclear or security cooperation with Saudi Arabia to Saudi recognition of Israel. Though Trump is still calling for the Saudis — who have never recognized the Jewish state — to normalize relations, his team has reportedly dropped it as a demand for US-Saudi nuclear cooperation. If this comes to pass, it would effectively be giving up on what would be the crown jewel of the Abraham Accords process. A hands-off stance on GazaAll this is a dramatic shift, but it’s certainly not the change that critics of Biden’s support for Israel were hoping for. Trump has iced out the Israelis on regional diplomacy just as Israel is considering a plan for an “intensive escalation” of its military operations in Gaza. This could include the destruction of most of the enclave’s remaining buildings and and would give civilians a choice between moving to a tiny “humanitarian area” or leaving — though it’s not clear what countries would be willing to accept them if they did. Trump and his senior officials have not spoken out publicly about the plan and, according to Axios’ reporting, have “effectively given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a green light to do as he sees fit.” Israeli officials say the operation will begin if there is no ceasefire and hostage deal by the end of Trump’s visit to the region this week, though there are few indications that Trump is actively involved in pushing for one. It seems unlikely that Trump would employ pressure tactics that Biden was unwilling to use, such as conditioning military aid or addressing the Israeli public directly about the war. Trump has shifted radically on policy in the past, but for the moment, his cold shoulder doesn’t seem any more likely to put an end to the ongoing catastrophe in Gaza than Biden’s bear hug. See More:

U.S. President Donald Trump opened his four-day Middle East trip on Tuesday by paying a visit to Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, for talks on U.S. efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, end the war in Gaza, hold down oil prices and more.Prince Mohammed warmly greeted Trump as he stepped off Air Force One at King Khalid International Airport in the Saudi capital and kicked off his Middle East tour.The two leaders then retreated to a grand hall at the Riyadh airport, where Trump and his aides were served traditional Arabic coffee by waiting attendants wearing ceremonial gun-belts. Fighter jet escort The pomp began before Trump even landed. Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provided an honorary escort for Air Force One as it approached the kingdom’s capital.Trump and Prince Mohammed also took part in a lunch at the Royal Court, gathering with guests and aides in an ornate room with blue accents and massive crystal chandeliers.As he greeted business titans with Trump by his side, Prince Mohammed was animated and smiling.It was a stark contrast to his awkward fist bump with then-President Joe Biden, who looked to avoid being seen on camera shaking hands with the prince during a 2022 visit to the kingdom.Biden had decided to pay a visit to Saudi Arabia as he looked to alleviate soaring prices at the pump for motorists at home and around the globe.At the time, Prince Mohammed’s reputation had been badly damaged by a U.S. intelligence determination that found he had ordered the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.But that dark moment appeared to be distant memory for the prince as he rubbed elbows with high-profile business executives — including Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — in front of the cameras and with Trump by his side.Later, the crown prince will fete Trump with a formal dinner. Trump is also slated to take part Tuesday in a U.S.-Saudi investment conference.“When Saudis and Americans join forces, very good things happen — more often than not, great things happen,” Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih said. Oil production Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC+ nations have already helped their cause with Trump early in his second term by stepping up oil production. Trump sees cheap energy as a key component to lowering costs and stemming inflation for Americans. The Republican president has also made the case that lower oil prices will hasten an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.But Saudi Arabia’s economy remains heavily dependent on oil, and the kingdom needs a fiscal break-even oil price of $96 to $98 a barrel to balance its budget. It’s questionable how long OPEC+, of which Saudi Arabia is the leading member, is willing to keep production elevated. The price of a barrel of Brent crude closed Monday at $64.77.“One of the challenges for the Gulf states of lower oil prices is it doesn’t necessarily imperil economic diversification programs, but it certainly makes them harder,” said Jon Alterman, a senior Middle East analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Qatar and UAE next Trump picked the kingdom for his first stop, because it has pledged to make big investments in the U.S., but Trump ended up traveling to Italy last month for Pope Francis’ funeral. Riyadh was the first overseas stop of his first term.The three countries on the president’s itinerary — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — are all places where the Trump Organization, run by Trump’s two elder sons, is developing major real estate projects. They include a high-rise tower in Jeddah, a luxury hotel in Dubai and a golf course and villa complex in Qatar.Trump is trying to demonstrate that his transactional strategy for international politics is paying dividends as he faces criticism from Democrats who say his global tariff war and approach to Russia’s war on Ukraine are isolating the United States from allies.He’s expected to announce deals with the three wealthy countries that will touch on artificial intelligence, expanding energy cooperation and perhaps new arms sales to Saudi Arabia. The administration earlier this month announced initial approval to sell $3.5 billion worth of air-to-air missiles for Saudi Arabia’s fighter jets.But Trump arrived in the Middle East at a moment when his top regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, are far from neatly aligned with his approach. Trump’s decision to skip Israel remarkable, expert says Before the trip, Trump announced that Washington was halting a nearly two-month U.S. airstrike campaign against Yemen’s Houthis, saying the Iran-backed rebels have pledged to stop attacking ships along a vital global trade route.The administration didn’t notify Israel — which the Houthis continue to target — of the agreement before Trump publicly announced it. It was the latest example of Trump leaving the Israelis in the dark about his administration’s negotiations with common adversaries.In March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t notified by the administration until after talks began with Hamas about the war in Gaza. And Netanyahu found out about the ongoing U.S. nuclear talks with Iran only when Trump announced them during an Oval Office visit by the Israeli leader last month.“Israel will defend itself by itself,” Netanyahu said last week following Trump’s Houthi truce announcement. “If others join us — our American friends — all the better.”William Wechsler, senior director of the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, said Trump’s decision to skip Israel on his first Middle East visit is remarkable.“The main message coming out of this, at least as the itinerary stands today, is that the governments of the Gulf … are in fact stronger friends to President Trump than the current government of Israel at this moment,” Wechsler said. Restarting efforts to normalize Israel-Saudi ties Trump, meanwhile, hopes to restart his first-term effort to normalize relations between the Middle East’s major powers, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Trump’s Abraham Accords effort led to Sudan, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco agreeing to normalize relations with Israel.But Riyadh has made clear that in exchange for normalization it wants U.S. security guarantees, assistance with the kingdom’s nuclear program and progress on a pathway to Palestinian statehood. There seems to be scant hope for making headway on a Palestinian state with the Israel-Hamas war raging and the Israelis threatening to flatten and occupy Gaza.Prince Mohammed last week notably hosted Palestinian Vice President Hussein Sheikh in Jeddah on the sheikh’s first foreign visit since assuming office in April.Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the crown prince appeared to be subtly signaling to Trump that the kingdom needs to see progress on Palestinian statehood for the Saudis to begin seriously moving on a normalization deal with the Israelis.“Knowing how the Saudis telegraph their intentions, that’s a preemptive, ‘Don’t even think of asking us to show any goodwill toward normalization,'” Abdul-Hussain said. Madhani reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. —Zeke Miller, Aamer Madhani and Jon Gambrell, Associated Press