Giving sobering considerations to how AI impacts the Doomsday Clock for both the good and the bad of ... [+] striking midnight and the end of times.gettyIn todays column, I examine the latest status of the famous or perhaps infamous Doomsday Clock countdown. Turns out that though AI isnt yet integral to the clock tick-tock movement, I assert it soon shall be.Lets talk about it.This analysis of an innovative AI consideration is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).Doomsday Clock Is In The NewsYou might know that the Doomsday Clock is a long-standing metaphorical indicator of humanity sliding toward oblivion.The keepers of the Doomsday Clock recently announced that the countdown has perilously moved even closer to the cataclysmic end of times. The reasons for this almost-reaching midnight proclamation are primarily due to nuclear armaments, bioweapons, and climate change. Another alarming factor that they noted is appearing quickly on the doomsday horizon consists of the advent of advanced AI.The Doomsday Clock used to be quite a worldwide attention-getter.Todays generation probably doesnt hold the significance of the said-to-be Judgment Day indicator in the same high regard. To some, it seems rather dated and mainly an interesting historical artifact. Nonetheless, it still gets noteworthy mention in the media and many still are avidly interested in the annual change in status.Background On The Doomsday ClockAs background, in 1945 there were key scientists including the legendary Albert Einstein and J. Robert Oppenheimer that were gravely concerned about the longevity of humankind due to the creation of the atomic bomb. An organization known as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decided that a clock-related metaphor might be a readily identifiable way to represent the dire nature of whether humanity might wipe itself out.In a sense, they wanted to showcase a countdown to zero that would alert society to the sword dangling over our heads.The Doomsday Clock was established as a global symbol such that the strike of twelve would represent the finality of our existence. This is considered the proverbial stroke of midnight. The minute hand would be set at some number of minutes prior to midnight. Each year, an assessment would be made about the direction that the minute hand should be moved.In instances of society worsening our chances of survival, the minute hand is moved closer to the midnight finality. The minute hand can also be moved further away from midnight, meaning that something has occurred that suggests additional relief and survival is garnering a better chance. In that sense, the movement of the minute hand represents both the direness of our situation along with a potentially optimistic view of our circumstances if we do our best to save ourselves.Humankind can do things to bring us closer to the end and yet also do actions that give us greater chances of continuing our existence. It doesnt have to be entirely and exclusively doom and gloom.With luck and skill, we can buy ourselves more time.The Ticking ClockIn 1947, the Doomsday Clock initially began. It was ominously set at 7 minutes before midnight.As I noted above, the minute hand has been reviewed subsequently each year. A sobering and thoughtful decision is made whether to remain at the stated time or adjust the time. Time adjustments can be closer or further from midnight.What is the best time that the Doomsday Clock has ever shown?That would occur in the year 1991. The Cold War was considered officially over. The Doomsday Clock that year was moved to 17 minutes before midnight. This would be the widest window that weve ever had.In recent years, here is what the time has been set to:2023: Doomsday Clock set at 90 seconds to midnight2022: Doomsday Clock set at 100 seconds to midnight (no change this year)2021: Doomsday Clock set at 100 seconds to midnight (no change this year)2020: Doomsday Clock set at 100 seconds to midnight2019: Doomsday Clock set at 2 minutes to midnight (no change this year)2018: Doomsday Clock set at 2 minutes to midnight2017: Doomsday Clock set at 2 minutes to midnight2016: Doomsday Clock set at 3 minutes to midnight (no change this year)2015: Doomsday Clock set at 3 minutes to midnightObserve that ten years ago we were at 3 minutes to midnight.Sadly, since then, the minute hand has been moved to a minute and a half, or 90 seconds, before midnight. The decision of which direction and how much to move the minute hand is made by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in conjunction with a Board of Sponsors that has various selected Nobel prize winners.Minute Hand Most Recent MovementId like you to contemplate the ten years from 2015 to the present. Do you think that the minute hand deservedly has been moving closer to midnight? Or do you think that it should still be at the three-minute mark? Maybe somewhere else in between?You be the judge.What has happened to the minute hand for the year 2024?An announcement was made this January 2025 about the status for 2024. The proclamation was spelled out in a posting entitled Closer than ever: It is now 89 seconds to midnight, 2025 Doomsday Clock Statement, Editor John Mecklin, Science and Security Board, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 28, 2025, and made these salient points (excerpts):In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe. Consequently, we now move the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to 89 seconds to midnightthe closest it has ever been to catastrophe.Our fervent hope is that leaders will recognize the worlds existential predicament and take bold action to reduce the threats posed by nuclear weapons, climate change, and the potential misuse of biological science and a variety of emerging technologiesIn setting the Clock one second closer to midnight, we send a stark signal: Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster.Making Sense Of The Latest Clock MovementThe declaration states that the Doomsday Clock is now residing at 89 seconds before midnight.Thats a bit curious, lets see why.This is a one-second movement from the 90 seconds of the prior year. Some felt that this was a weakening of the time switches. It used to be that the time switches were mainly based on minutes. Then it went to seconds. But the use of seconds was at least in bunches and not on a second-at-a-time measurement. Going into just individual seconds seems like hair-splitting and not worthy of being heralded.Others counter that complaint by saying that the use of individual seconds is a recognition of movement that provides a directional sense to it. They argue that minutes could at times be interpreted as overly dramatic. The claim is that going to individual seconds shows a semblance of realism in how the hand is moving.Either way, you can bet that this is going to be an ongoing heated debate and could either help increase visibility or lessen attention to the Doomsday Clock. We will have to wait and see how people react.AI Not On The Docket Just YetThe formal announcement that I cited above also opted to provide some remarks about AI. Though AI wasnt among the primary factors that determined the minute hand movement this time, there is an expectation that soon the advent of advanced AI will indeed enter the big picture.Per the same cited announcement, heres what they had to say about AI:As in years past, artificial intelligence continues to be a significant and disruptive technology. In particular, the sophistication of large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4 has led to an intense public debate about the possible existential risks posed by such generative systems.The potential for this particular technology to constitute an existential threat on its own is highly speculative, but as succeeding generations of such models are released, the potential dangers, existential or otherwise, will increase.Of continuing concern are applications of AI in weapons of war, and most especially in its possible future application to nuclear weapons.AI is a disruptive technology, but any physical threat to humans posed by AI must be enabled by a link to a device that can change the state of the physical world, or to decisions that humans make about that world.Lets go ahead and unpack those crucial points about AI.Unpacking The AI FactorI will focus my remarks on five key aspects:(1) AI encompasses more than just generative AI and LLMs.(2) Dual-use of AI is crucial to uptick versus downtick.(3) Generative AI connected to physical devices raises pronounced issues.(4) Generative AI role in adverse persuasion should not be underestimated.(5) Artificial general intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI) would be radical game changers.Those five major aspects are integral to deciding whether we are getting nearer to midnight or moving further away from midnight.Lets briefly explore each one.All Types Of AI Are Worth WatchingThough most of the rapt attention right now is on generative AI and LLMs, please know that there are other types or categories of AI that deserve airtime too (see my coverage of the range of AI types, at the link here). For example, autonomous systems such as self-driving cars and self-flying planes tend to employ other kinds of AI and yet they too are vitally notable.The gist is that we need to keep our eyes wide open concerning all types of AI.Dangers lurk everywhere.AI Is Dual-Use TechNext, keep in mind that AI is a dual-use technology.Heres what that means.AI can be used for the goodness of humankind such as the efforts to use AI to find a cure for cancer. If those breakthroughs arise, perhaps the minute hand on the clock ought to be moved further from midnight. The idea that AI is only for badness is a misnomer. There is duality involved.That being said, there are numerous dire consequences due to AI performing potentially evil acts or being used by evildoers. For my in-depth analysis of the dual-use nature of AI, see the link here.Physical AI Gaining GroundThe latest advancements in generative AI involve connecting AI to physical devices such as robots, assembly line machinery, home-based controls, and the like. This is variously known as Physical AI, see my extensive explanation at the link here.The upside is that you can readily interact with generative AI in fluent language and tell the AI to perform various physical acts. The downside is that those physical acts can go awry, whereby the AI incorrectly commands a physical device or causes the device to harm humans.Another dual-use consideration.Psychological Facets Of AI UsageAn aspect that catches people by surprise is that generative AI can do damage even if it isnt connected to physical devices that will act out the commands of the AI. The damage can be caused by steering humans to take adverse actions.One concern that Ive repeatedly raised about LLMs is that they are being used widely as a form of mental health therapy. This is a grandiose experiment in which humanity is the guinea pig. We dont know what impact AI will have on population-wide mental status and yet globally, generative AI is freely giving out all manners of psychological guidance. For further background, see my coverage at the link here.How might this manifest itself?Suppose that AI convinces people to do harmful acts. The AI itself isnt carrying out the activities. But it had a role in persuading people to take actions that they perhaps would not have undertaken. If there is any good news involved, it could be that maybe AI will influence people to be supportive of their fellow humanity. Fingers-crossed.AGI And ASI Upset The Apple CartThe AI that we have currently is not sentient. We dont know if we will attain such AI. Our contemporary AI can do some impressive things, but it hasnt reached any kind of pinnacle yet.Youve undoubtedly heard all those rampant predictions that we are on the verge of artificial general intelligence or AGI. AGI would be AI that can perform entirely on par with whatever humans can do. A step beyond that would be artificial superintelligence or ASI, which would be AI that can do much better than anything humans can do. See my analysis of where we are on AGI and ASI, at the link here.A heady question is what the achievement of AGI or ASI might do to the Doomsday Clock countdown.What do you think would occur?The dual-use conundrum would rise prominently. AGI or ASI could presumably seek to wipe out humankind, thus the basis for an existing uproar over the potent extensional risk of AI. There is presumably an equal chance that AGI or ASI would essentially save humankind from its own self-destruction. Maybe AGI or ASI would end up being the best outcome of all time.For Whom The Bell TollsI would make a solid wager that AI is going to be instrumental in what happens to the annual movement of the Doomsday Clock and its elusive minutes hand and seconds hand. To be clear, this isnt solely in the direction of the dreaded midnight bell that tolls on us all.Consider the other side of the coin. AI can keep us away from midnight. Ask yourself a weighty question -- do the upsides of AI possibly overturn or outweigh the downsides? An optimist says yes, while a pessimist says no.Lets mull over some final bits of sage advice for now.Ralph Waldo Emerson famously made this remark about our existence: One of the illusions of life is that the present hour is not the critical, decisive one. I mention this to emphasize that we are in the drivers seat at this time when it comes to the fruition of AI. It is up to humankind to decide what AI will consist of. The present hour is decisive.The last quote here goes to the legendary Albert Einstein: It is the responsibility of every human being to aspire to do something worthwhile, to make the world a better place than the one we found. It takes a village to devise, field, and employ AI. We all have a stake in this. The clock is ticking. Do your part if you can.