CEOs who rushed to support Donald Trump after the election may have awoken this morning to the painful realization that they made a mistake. Its not just that business leaders were wrong to assume President Trump would never follow through on his threats to impose stiff tariffs on Canada and Mexico. They misjudged the man and the moment, failing to learn lessons from both politics and business. Now, clear-eyed CEOs should break from the herd mentality, steer clear of Trumps orbit, and plan for the likelihood that the pendulum will swing back to the center.Every day theres more evidence that the business communitys stampede to Trump was a miscalculation. Think of it as a Trump bubble, where enthusiasm overshot reality and undervalued risk. When the bubble bursts it will seem obvious that publicly aligning with a divisive, mercurial president was bad politics and bad business.Heres what many in the business community got wrong about Trump.Loyalty only goes one wayAmericas allies have learned this the hard wayjust ask Ukraineand business leaders should catch up. Its true that Trump is transactional. He has a history punishing corporate critics while shifting policy to reward financial backers. Former advisors say he is easily manipulated by flattery. But Trump is a fickle friend.Look at Mark Zuckerberg. After the election, the Meta CEO shut down fact checking on Facebook, allowed attacks against trans people and immigrants, and paid $25 million to settle a Trump lawsuit for suspending his account after the January 6 insurrection. But according to the tech journalist Casey Newton, Metas concessions to the right may have backfired. By bowing to Trump and giving credence to conservatives complaints about online censorship, Zuckerberg didnt quiet his criticshe emboldened them. Now Trumps Federal Trade Commission is launching a new probe of Facebooks content moderation policies. Voluntarily giving the bully your lunch money rarely works out.Trump is not as strong as he claims and is getting weaker every dayIts true that Teflon Don defied political gravity by rebounding from his 2020 loss and still manages to shake off scandals that would sink most other politicians. But that doesnt make him invincible.Trump wildly exaggerated the size of his victory. While he started this term in a stronger position than he did in 2017, hes still the least popular new president in modern history and his chaotic first weeks have damaged his standing further. Approval of Trumps handling of the economy, long his strong suit, is rapidly declining. Consumer confidence is dropping and inflation fears are rising.Things are likely to get worse for Trump, not better. Public opinion usually shifts away from the presidents party over time. And Republicans preparing to slash funding for health care to pay for big tax cuts for the wealthy are repeating the same playbook that cratered Trumps approval ratings in his first term and led to Democratic victories in the midterms. Business leaders fawning over Trump may hope theyre hitching a ride on a shooting star, but its more likely theyve tied themselves to a sinking stone.CEOs are underestimating the risks that come with cozying up to such a polarizing figureYou can look at the politics, as Republicans face angry town hall meetings and sinking poll numbers. But you can also look at the bottom lineand not just the costly tariffs that are likely to snarl supply chains and reignite inflation.Dumping diversity goals and retreating from sustainability targets may win points with MAGA critics in the short term, but research and experience both suggest it will be bad for business and the wider economy in the long term. Remember that companies did not embrace environmentally and socially responsible practices because of altruism, they did it because diverse talent leads to better outcomes, energy efficiency saves money, and because employees, customers, and investors demanded it.College-educated corporate workers and blue state consumers havent disappeared. Were already seeing some consumers start to vote with their feet. After Target joined the crowd abandoning diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) commitments, one study found foot traffic dropped nearly 10%. By contrast, it went up for Costco, which stood firm.Global companies face additional risks. They should expect cross-pressure from other governments and consumers around the world as Trump alienates allies and abandons shared concerns like promoting clean energy and AI safety. The same choices that help a CEO score a dinner invite to Mar-a-Lago may spur investigations in Brussels and boycotts in Toronto. Tesla sales are plummeting in Europe thanks in part to backlash against Trumps right-hand man Elon Musk.Theres business value in stabilityAnd even if you love tax cuts, they wont be worth much if the federal government is shattered and the rule of law is shredded. A healthy democracy, stable trading relationships, and a liveable planet are necessary for a thriving economy. This is starting to dawn on investors, who are warning of a Trump slump. The stock market has struggled since Inauguration Day. Even before the latest tariffs caused panic, the Wall Street Journal reported that for CEOs and bankers, the Trump euphoria Is fading fast. The Financial Times asked, Is corporate America already souring on Trump?Trump may cave to market pressure and roll back his new tariffs, but theres surely more chaos and uncertainty to come. He will have good daystodays State of the Union could provide onebut his honeymoon is ending faster than many expected. Looking ahead, business leaders should try to avoid controversy but be prepared for it to find them anyway. Smart CEOs are consistent in their long-term vision and arent swayed by passing political winds. You dont need to pick fights with a vindictive administration, but leaders arent afraid to tell the truth. Look at Ford CEO Jim Farley warning about the costs of Trumps trade policies, Patagonia CEO Ryan Gellert highlighting the cost of selling off Americas public lands, and Coca-Cola continuing to make the business case for diversity.As hard as this moment is, theres an opportunity waiting for those brave enough to seize it. Over the next four years, many consumers and talented workersand some investors, toowill be looking for businesses that refuse to be complicit in cruel and potentially illegal policies. If youre not going to stand up for whats right, at least dont bend the knee to whats wrong.