Why egg prices are rising, or: how humans respond to scarcity25 years of pandemic coverage + Straw Wars (Issue #286)Published inThe Medium BlogSent as aNewsletter3 min readJust now--This morning, before I opened up Medium to write this, I ate two (scrambled) eggs. Each one cost $1. A dozen cost $12 at the bodega down the street. (This is more than the average cost of $4.95, probably because I got the bougie cage-free eggs, and because the bodega needs to pay its rent.)Two years ago, eggs were, on average, half expensive as they are today.On the surface, the cause seems simple: an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu. To stop the spread (and prevent a possible second pandemic), egg farmers are diligently culling their flocks whenever theres an outbreak. Just one infection means an entire flock of hens must be killed. 148 million hens have been slaughtered since the outbreak began in 2022.In parallel, the U.S. justice department is investigating whether egg production companies are using avian flu as an excuse to inflate prices beyond whats reasonable. In 2023, the largest egg producer in the U.S., Cal-Maine Foods, was found guilty of price-fixing in a jury trial, raising suspicions that theyre now up to something similar. In a three-part series investigating that theory, antitrust attorney Basel Musharbash notes that in 2015, an outbreak of avian flu caused much smaller price increases (~40% as opposed to todays ~200% spikes). Im honestly curious what you make of this. My theory is that the reality is probably more complex than we think. High prices are probably the result of avian flu and a growing monopoly on eggs. But I dont know for sure.On Medium, behavioral scientist Dr Paul Harrison (PhD) goes one level deeper to investigate how the egg discourse (and the fact that theyre so dang expensive) is making us feel. He believes our reaction to the shortage tells us something important about human psychology. Most of consumer behavior is dictated by perception rather than reality, he explains, and scarcity changes our perception of value. If you find yourself subconsciously stockpiling eggs right now, or savoring them a bit more, youre not alone.The egg situation also contains a lesson about consumerism. Its a reminder that everything is finite. As Harrison concludes:A chicken can only lay a finite number of eggs; an avocado tree can only produce so much fruit. Our economic models are built on the assumption of endless growth. There is something fundamentally flawed about this equation. Harris Sockel