Despite global slowdowns in new car sales, there seems to be no slowing down the automotive aftermarket which is expected to cross 2bn vehicles on the road (includes passenger cars and commercial vehicles) and become a trillion dollar industry by 2035, a finding of a new study on Future of Automotive Aftermarket released by Markets and Markets. It’s evolving rapidly, driven by a surge in vehicle parc, average vehicle age, miles driven per year, and, of course, the increasing demand for sustainability practices. By 2030—and that’s just 4 years away—the global passenger car parc is expected to reach 1.62 billion units! To put that in perspective, with the total population expected to be somewhere around 8.5 billion, it's 1 vehicle for every 5 people on earth! Electric vehicles are expected to reach about 10-12% of the global vehicle parc by 2030, up from ~4-5% in 2024. This will lead to an exponential increase in the demand for specialized parts—such as batteries and regenerative braking systems. Aside from vehicle parc, connectivity and e-commerce will also play a major role in driving the aftermarket. In terms of growth markets, China is going to be an interesting market with car parc reaching 458mn vehicles by 2030 and the parc ageing (currently, one third of the vehicles are over 6 years old), providing opportunities for the independent aftermarket channel. Car Repairgetty Traction and Torque: The New Aftermarket Boom While the future may or may not be electric, there’s no denying the fact that EV sales are skyrocketing in some economies. The rise of EVs brings a whole new set of opportunities—and challenges—to the aftermarket. Due to their heavier weight and instant torque, tires on EVs wear out sooner than traditional ICE cars—up to 10,000 km faster—leading to quicker tire replacement and driving the demand for durable, specialized rubber designed to handle the extra strain. Total tire Aftermarket industry is expected to grow from USD 96 billion in 2024 to over USD 115 billion by 2030. On the other hand, the rise of EVs has tempered the demand for engine oil replacement to a certain extent, as EVs do not use traditional lubes. However, demand for engine oil remains strong as ICE vehicles require engine oil replacement every 7,500-10,000 km. With revenues of USD 55 billion in 2024, the engine oil aftermarket is expected to reach USD 64 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.5% during the forecast period, also helped with the push from lubricant players like Shell & others to focus on premium branded products. Chart shows breakdown of how aftermarket parts are expected to grow over the forecast period. Global Light Vehicle Aftermarket Component DemandMarkets and Markets Wrenches to Widgets: The New Face of the Aftermarket Similar to other sectors, digitalization is changing the face of the automotive aftermarket as well. Everything from sales channels—you can now buy car parts from the comfort of your favorite couch if you so desire (and even on Amazon or eBay) —to revenue models and customer engagement has undergone a massive transformation. Some of today’s vehicles even offer OEM-backed predictive maintenance, beaming real-time data to mechanics and flagging issues before they become road hazards, shifting the industry to a data-driven, scalable, customer-centric model. Bosch, for instance, uses connected diagnostics to send real-time vehicle data to repair shops, while Tesla & Ford’s OEM telematics systems enable over-the-air (OTA) updates to fix software glitches, reducing the need for physical shop visits. Advancements such as these blend cutting-edge innovation with OEM infrastructure, reducing repair times and keeping vehicles rolling with minimal downtime. When it comes to e-commerce sales, digital convenience and rapid technological innovations have fueled growth in the aftermarket—global e-commerce sales of automotive parts are expected to grow from 5% in 2024 to almost 10% by 2030 as consumers increasingly bypass traditional brick-and-mortar shops for the convenience, variety, pricing, and delivery options that online portals offer. On-demand Services: Opportunities Beyond the Dealership Growth and innovation in the automotive industry have resulted in the evolution of new on-demand services such as fuel delivery, door-to-door servicing, roadside assistance, rescue charging for EVs, and even car washing. In the aftermarket, on-demand car wash services are carving a niche alongside traditional offerings like parts sales and repairs. The key trends driving the demand for car washing include integration with digital platforms, AI-driven systems and automated payment kiosks, premium packages with ceramic coatings and interior sanitization, and energy players partnering with car wash providers. Volvo, for example, has partnered with GoWashMyCar in the UK to offer mobile washing through its app, MobileWash, while Mopar, the aftermarket arm of Stellantis (previously Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), provides a variety of on-demand services, including 24/7 roadside assistance. Ford, too, partnered with Agero in 2024 to enhance its roadside assistance program across the US, focusing on EVs and traditional vehicles. On the other hand, major OEMs, too, have begun to offer various customer-centric services, such as Tesla’s mobile fleet service and BMW’s mobile and concierge-style pickup/drop-off service. These initiatives enhance customer satisfaction and give OEMs a competitive edge in a space where independents have long dominated, positioning them as full-lifecycle partners in vehicle ownership. Built to Last, Remanufactured to Lead! Remanufactured parts are previously used components brought back to OEM specs and standards. Such parts usually cost 30-40% less than new components while offering comparable quality and performance and are often backed by warranties. The demand for remanufactured automotive components is growing as consumers and businesses seek alternatives to high-priced OEM parts without compromising on quality. In North America, the US has a mature remanufactured parts market with robust distribution channels, strong customer awareness, clear government guidelines, and over 15,000 companies, while in Europe, Germany has strong remanufacturing capabilities, followed by the UK. Despite gradual acceptance by customers, remanufactured components have a higher penetration rate in some countries than others. For example, the penetration rate in the US and Europe is significantly higher than in India and China due to a lack of customer awareness about the benefits of these parts and the low price difference compared to new parts. Heavily remanufactured products include starters, turbochargers, transmissions, compressors, ECUs, and electronic parts in conventional ICE vehicles and could include batteries, e-motors, inverters, e-compressors, and DC-DC converters in EVs. The automotive remanufacturing market is expected to grow from USD 75.1 billion in 2024 to USD 120.4 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 8.1%. Beyond OEMs: A New Era of Auto Services The Original Equipment Service (OES) channel is tied to automakers and their dealership networks, making it, well, to be honest, inconvenient in situations where time is of the essence. Imagine having your vehicle towed to an authorized dealership just to replace a sensor, leaving you stranded. And God forbid it happens in the midst of a long traveling tour or in a remote location hundreds of miles away from the dealership. Thankfully, the Independent Aftermarket (IAM) operates, well, independently, supplying parts, tools, and services through a diverse network of retailers, repair shops, and e-commerce platforms. IAM channels excel in components such as brakes, batteries, starters, alternators, AC compressors, and others and are divided into 3 categories—traditional warehouse distributors, retailers, and e-commerce portals. The US leads the IAM growth with traditional warehouse distributors, retailers, and e-commerce portals accounting for 40-45%, 30-35%, and 10-12%, respectively, mainly due to the massive vehicle fleet in the country, along with mature aftermarket infrastructure and an increasing consumer preference for independence from OEMs post-warranty. Mergers & Acquisitions to grow One key trend we will see is industry consolidation and integration. In M&A, we will see Tier 1 suppliers acquire other suppliers and distributors of auto parts acquire others within their region and globally to become international players. Private equity firms are increasingly targeting M&A in the automotive aftermarket, focusing on distributors and intermediaries due to their stable cash flows, consolidation potential and operational improvement opportunities. Conclusion In a world where the road never ends, the automotive aftermarket keeps you moving—whether it’s style, performance, or smart technology that drives you. From routine fixes to resplendent grandeur, each day more consumers rely on aftermarket options to be unique but now also for convenience. Be it traditional warehouse distributors, independent repair shops, or on-demand service providers; the aftermarket is evolving and growing, forcing OEMs to deepen their presence in the vehicle ownership cycle. By 2030, you can expect the aftermarket to be an integrated, eco-conscious, and customer-centric industry, leveraging AI, telematics, and circular economy principles to keep pace with a global vehicle parc exceeding 2 billion—ensuring that affordability, convenience, and reliability remain at the wheel of automotive care.