Adding up Reusable rockets are here, so why is NASA paying more to launch stuff to space? Something appears to be broken in how NASA procures launch services. Stephen Clark – Apr 24, 2025 7:15 pm | 15 File photo of a Falcon 9 rocket launch with NASA's Crew-6 mission. Credit: SpaceX File photo of a Falcon 9 rocket launch with NASA's Crew-6 mission. Credit: SpaceX Story text Size Small Standard Large Width * Standard Wide Links Standard Orange * Subscribers only   Learn more In an era of reusable rockets and near-daily access to space, NASA is still paying more than it did 30 years ago to launch missions into orbit, according to a study soon to be published in the scientific journal Acta Astronautica. Launch is becoming more routine. Every few days, SpaceX is sending another batch of Starlink Internet satellites to orbit, and other kinds of missions fill up the rest of SpaceX's launch schedule. SpaceX, alone, has ample capacity to launch the handful of science missions NASA puts into space each year. If supply outpaces demand, shouldn't prices go down? It's not so simple. NASA is one of many customers jockeying for a slot on SpaceX's launch manifest. The US military is launching more missions than ever before, and SpaceX is about to become the Pentagon's top launch provider. SpaceX already launches more missions for NASA than any other rocket company. Commercial satellites and SpaceX's own Starlink missions also fill up the launch schedule. So far this year, more than 70 percent of SpaceX's launches have deployed Starlink satellites or Starshield spacecraft, a military version of the Starlink platform for the US government. So, there's a lot of demand, even if NASA's missions make up only a fraction of SpaceX's launch business. Cost vs. price Financial information from NASA suggests the agency's payments for launch services are increasing, according to a paper authored by Moon Kim, a research analyst for NASA's strategic investments division. The report is set to be published in the July issue of Acta Astronautica, a peer-reviewed journal sponsored by the International Academy of Astronautics. Adjusted for inflation, the prices NASA pays for launch services rose at an annual average rate of 2.82 percent from 1996 to 2024, the report says. "Furthermore, there is no evidence of shift in the launch service costs trend after the introduction of a new launch service provider in 2016." The new launch service provider mentioned here is SpaceX. NASA's Launch Services Program, which books rocket launches for the agency's science missions, used a Falcon 9 rocket for the first time in January 2016. Before then, United Launch Alliance was the only launch provider capable of hauling NASA's heaviest satellites to orbit. The Launch Services Program brokers launch contracts for NASA's interplanetary probes, space telescopes, and climate research satellites. Launches to transport crews and cargo to the International Space Station are booked through a separate account. For nearly 40 years, NASA's policy has been to launch its robotic science probes on commercial rockets whenever possible. Government officials realized in the 1980s that NASA's Space Shuttle would be more expensive to fly than anticipated. After the Challenger accident in 1986, NASA launched most of its satellites on expendable rockets, like the Atlas, Delta, and Titan launch vehicles that traced their lineages to the 1950s. A Delta II rocket built by Boeing lifts off June 10, 2003, with NASA's Spirit rover heading for Mars. Credit: NASA Newcomers entered the launch business in the 1990s. Orbital Sciences debuted its air-launched Pegasus vehicle, which became the first privately developed rocket to reach orbit. SpaceX introduced its small liquid-fueled Falcon 1 rocket in the 2000s, and then the larger Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets in 2010 and 2018. The Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy are partially reusable, holding the promise that SpaceX's rockets would bring about a sharp reduction in the cost of launch. Indeed, they have. SpaceX is the first company to recover and reuse an orbital rocket's first stage booster and payload fairings. These two elements represent about 70 percent of the total cost of a Falcon 9 launcher. Reusability and processing improvements at SpaceX's factory and launch sites have significantly reduced the cost of each Falcon 9 launch. "At one point, SpaceX had publicly said that it was $28 million," said Caleb Henry, director of research at Quilty Space, in a live event hosted by Ars last year. "We believe today that they are below $20 million per launch and actually lower than that... I would put it in the mid-teens for how much it costs them internally." SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 booster for a record 27th mission earlier this month. "As they can amortize the cost of the booster over a greater number of missions, that only helps them with their business case," Henry said. Kim uses NASA's pricing data as the benchmark in his paper because the exact costs incurred by launch providers for each flight are proprietary. "For the launch industry, privatization was expected to lead to more efficient resource allocation, resulting in lower launch prices and thus increasing launch demand," Kim writes in a summary of his report. These efficiencies include economies of scale, increased production, and competitive pressures, all of which were expected to drive down prices as the industry reached an "equilibrium." These expectations have not borne out. "The results indicate that NASA's launch service cost is not decreasing," Kim writes. Let’s get to the numbers Over the last few years, SpaceX cited inflation as the reason for steadily increasing the price of a dedicated Falcon 9 launch, from $62 million, to $67 million, and now to $70 million. This suggests SpaceX is selling launches at a significant markup, although the Falcon 9's list price still undercuts the company's competitors. The complete text of Kim's paper hasn't been published yet, but a summary of the report is available online. The study results "show limited effects of the competitive market" on launch prices, and recommends NASA reassess its policies to foster more competition. Companies charge the US government more for launch services than they do for commercial customers. By paying more, NASA and the Space Force get priority on launch schedules, and government engineers have access to internal company data for oversight purposes. NASA and Space Force missions sometimes have special requirements, such as strict payload cleanliness specifications or augmentations to place satellites into unique orbits, meaning they often can't launch on rideshare missions, which offer cut-rate prices for missions that can fly on them. NASA's Europa Clipper mission began with a fiery launch on SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket. Credit: SpaceX While launch prices are not publicly available for every NASA mission since 1996, Ars found launch prices paid by NASA for most of the agency's mediun and large science missions from the late 1990s through the mid-2000s. Today, these missions would likely launch on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets. Here's a sample with contract values adjusted for inflation from the date of launch to reflect 2025 dollars: • 1998: Deep Space 1 — Delta II rocket — $86 million • 1999: Mars Polar Lander — Delta II rocket — $88 million • 2001: Mars Odyssey — Delta II rocket — $96 million • 2003: Spirit and Opportunity Mars rovers — two Delta II rockets — $87 million per launch • 2004: Swift — Delta II rocket — $90 million • 2005: Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter — Atlas V rocket — $147 million • 2007: Phoenix Mars lander — Delta II rocket — $132 million Launch prices for NASA missions soared after the late 2000s, following the creation of United Launch Alliance through a merger of the Atlas and Delta rocket programs developed by Lockheed Martin and Boeing. The merger eliminated competition for most of NASA's launch contracts until SpaceX's Falcon 9 became available for NASA science missions in the mid-2010s. Here's a sample of missions as examples of the rising costs, with contract values adjusted for inflation from the time of their award to reflect 2025 dollars: • 2009: Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter — Atlas V rocket — $220 million • 2012: Radiation Belt Storm Probes — Atlas V rocket — $226 million (averaged from a bulk buy) • 2014: Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 — Delta II rocket — $191 million (averaged from a bulk buy) • 2016: OSIRIS-REx asteroid mission — Atlas V rocket — $252 million • 2017: TDRS-M data relay satellite — Atlas V rocket — $179 million • 2017: JPSS-2 weather satellite — Atlas V rocket — $224 million • 2018: InSight Mars lander — Atlas V rocket — $220 million • 2018: ICESAT-2 — Delta II rocket — $134 million Again, the missions listed above would likely launch on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rockets if NASA awarded these contracts today. So, how do SpaceX's more recent Falcon 9 prices compare? Let's take a look. These contract values are adjusted for inflation from the time of their award to reflect 2025 dollars: • 2016: Jason 3 oceanography satellite — Falcon 9 rocket — $114 million • 2018: Transiting Exoplanets Survey Satellite — Falcon 9 rocket — $118 million • 2020: Sentinel-6A — Falcon 9 rocket — $126 million • 2021: Double Asteroid Redirection Test — Falcon 9 rocket — $86 million • 2021: Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer — Falcon 9 rocket — $62 million • 2022: Surface Water and Ocean Topography — Falcon 9 rocket — $148 million • 2024: PACE Earth sciences mission — Falcon 9 rocket — $99 million • 2025: SPHEREx astronomy mission — Falcon 9 rocket — $99 million And here are a few future launches NASA has booked to fly on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket. Some of these contracts were awarded in the last 12 months, and those have not been adjusted for inflation. The others reflect 2025 dollars: • 2025: Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe — Falcon 9 rocket — $134 million • 2025: Sentinel-6B — Falcon 9 rocket — $101 million • 2027: NEO Surveyor — Falcon 9 rocket — $100 million • 2027: JPSS-4 weather satellite — Falcon 9 rocket — $113 million • 2027: Compton Spectrometer and Imager — Falcon 9 rocket — $69 million There are a few other things worth noting when we chart NASA's launch prices. One is that SpaceX's Falcon Heavy, used for NASA's heaviest missions, costs more than a Falcon 9 rocket. For example, two identical weather satellites launched in 2022 and 2024 on ULA's Atlas V and SpaceX's Falcon Heavy rocket for $207 million and $178 million, respectively, again adjusted for inflation. It's also instructive to compare NASA's launch prices for the agency's three newest nuclear-powered space missions. These spacecraft use plutonium power generators, and their launch vehicles require an additional level of safety certification. NASA paid ULA the equivalent of $307 million in 2025 dollars for the launch of the Curiosity Mars rover in 2011. NASA's Perseverance Mars rover launched on an Atlas V rocket in 2020 under a launch contract with ULA valued at $323 million in 2025 dollars. NASA is developing the Dragonfly helicopter for launch to Saturn's moon Titan in 2028, and the agency awarded SpaceX a $257 million contract last year to launch it on a Falcon Heavy rocket. A reusable Falcon 9 booster after landing on a SpaceX drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean. Credit: SpaceX Reaching an equilibrium NASA is paying SpaceX less to launch its newest missions than the agency would have paid ULA to launch them on Delta II or Atlas V rockets a decade ago. That's the good news. However, despite its mastery of rocket reuse, SpaceX is charging NASA nearly as much for future Falcon 9 launches (an average of $103 million) as it did over the last decade (an average of $107 million). And the latest average Falcon 9 prices for NASA are higher than those of the expendable Delta II rocket more than 20 years ago. Meanwhile, ULA hasn't launched a NASA science mission since 2022, and hasn't won a contract with NASA's Launch Services Program since 2019. ULA's Atlas V rocket is nearing retirement, and the company's replacement, the Vulcan, only became eligible to compete for NASA launch contracts last year. This means NASA has lacked competition among US launch providers for several years. ULA's Vulcan and Blue Origin's New Glenn rockets are now operational, and they should soon contest SpaceX for NASA launch contracts. But Vulcan and New Glenn lack the long record of reliability of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and their prices are murky. The best data available on ULA's Vulcan launch prices comes from the US Space Force. Between 2020 and 2023, the Space Force awarded dozens of launch contracts to ULA and SpaceX. Those deals average out to $120 million for ULA and $114 million for SpaceX. Earlier this month, the Space Force doled out nine more launch orders for an average of $214 million to ULA and $121 million to SpaceX. These numbers are comparable to NASA's recent launch prices and likely foretell SpaceX and ULA pricing trends for the rest of the decade. Despite the promise of competition, NASA may have to wait for the next generation of launchers, such as SpaceX's Starship, to come online for another step-change in launch prices. Stephen Clark Space Reporter Stephen Clark Space Reporter Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet. 15 Comments