Don't look up A Soviet-era spacecraft built to land on Venus is falling to Earth instead Kosmos 482 is encased in a titanium heat shield, with a good chance of reaching the surface intact. Stephen Clark – May 8, 2025 4:59 pm | 18 A replica of the Venera 8 descent module; it's thought to be identical to Kosmos 482. Credit: NASA Story text Size Small Standard Large Width * Standard Wide Links Standard Orange * Subscribers only   Learn more Kosmos 482, a Soviet-era spacecraft shrouded in Cold War secrecy, will reenter the Earth's atmosphere in the next few days after misfiring on a journey to Venus more than 50 years ago. On average, a piece of space junk the size of Kosmos 482, with a mass of about a half-ton, falls into the atmosphere about once per week. What's different this time is that Kosmos 482 was designed to land on Venus, with a titanium heat shield built to withstand scorching temperatures, and structures engineered to survive atmospheric pressures nearly 100 times higher than Earth's. So, there's a good chance the spacecraft will survive the extreme forces it encounters during its plunge through the atmosphere. Typically, space debris breaks apart and burns up during reentry, with only a small fraction of material reaching the Earth's surface. The European Space Agency, one of several institutions that track space debris, says Kosmos 482 is "highly likely" to reach Earth's surface in one piece. Fickle forecasts The Kosmos 482 spacecraft launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, now part of Kazakhstan, aboard a Molniya rocket on March 31, 1972. A short time later, the rocket's upper stage was supposed to propel the probe out of Earth orbit on an interplanetary journey toward Venus, where it would have become the third mission to land on the second planet from the Sun. But the rocket failed, rendering it unable to escape the gravitational grip of Earth. The spacecraft separated into several pieces, and Russian engineers gave up on the mission. The main section of the Venus probe reentered the atmosphere in 1981, but for 53 years, the 3.3-foot-diameter (1-meter) segment of the spacecraft that was supposed to land on Venus remained in orbit around the Earth, its trajectory influenced only by the tenuous uppermost layers of the atmosphere. The mission was part of the Soviet Union's Venera program, which achieved the first soft landing of a spacecraft on another planet with the Venera 7 mission in 1970, and followed up with another successful landing with Venera 8 in 1972. Because it failed, Soviet officials gave the next mission, which would have become Venera 9, a non-descriptive name: Kosmos 482. Over time, the dead spacecraft succumbed to aerodynamic drag, slowly losing altitude before dipping deeper into the atmosphere in recent weeks. In the last few days, Kosmos 482's orbit brought the spacecraft less than 100 miles (150 kilometers) from Earth. This additional aerodynamic drag is hastening the craft's fall from space. As of Thursday, expert predictions centered on a likely reentry of Kosmos 482 early Saturday. But reentry forecasts have large margins of error. Small variations in the density of the upper atmosphere driven by solar activity could bring down the spacecraft sooner or later than expected. The Aerospace Corporation's experts predict Kosmos 482 will fall to Earth some time nine hours before or after 1:54 am EDT (05:54 UTC) Saturday. The European Space Agency's forecast is centered on 3:12 am EDT (07:12 UTC) Saturday, plus or minus 13.7 hours. The reentry windows will narrow over the next couple of days, but experts won't be able to pinpoint an exact time or location before the spherical spacecraft makes its final plunge. "As we approach the reentry, the uncertainty in the prediction decreases," the European Space Agency wrote on a website tracking Kosmos 482. "The remaining uncertainty is caused by the difficulty of modeling the atmosphere, the influence of space weather, and the unknowns about the object itself, such as which way it is facing." However, there are a few things we know about where it will come down. Kosmos 482's flight path takes the spacecraft between 52 degrees north and south latitude on each orbit, so it never flies over the northernmost parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. As the forecasts become more precise, it will be possible to identify the corridors where Kosmos 482 will fly during the reentry window. A map of Kosmos 482's orbital tracks during the Aerospace Corporation's 18-hour reentry window is shown below. This map from the Aerospace Corporation shows the track of Kosmos 482 in low-Earth orbit, with blue lines denoting the spacecraft's locations before the middle of the reentry window, and yellow lines after the middle of the reentry window. Credit: Aerospace Corporation If you go through most of your days without worrying about space junk falling on you, there's little reason for serious alarm now. The Aerospace Corporation says any one individual on Earth is "far likelier" to be struck by lightning than to be injured by Kosmos 482. The US government's safety threshold for uncontrolled reentries requires the risk of a serious injury or death on the ground to be less than 1 in 10,000. The Aerospace Corporation projects the risk of at least one injury or fatality from Kosmos 482 to be 0.4 in 10,000 if the descent craft reaches the surface intact. Marco Langbroek, a Dutch archeologist and university lecturer on space situational awareness, wrote on his website that the risk of public injury from Kosmos 482 is lower than that from the reentry of a SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage. One of those came down uncontrolled over Poland in February, scattering some debris but causing no injuries. Langbroek said the reentry analysis suggests the Kosmos 482 descent capsule will impact the ground or water at about 150 mph (242 kilometers per hour), assuming it makes it to the surface in one piece. The lander carries a parachute that would have slowed its final descent to Venus, but it's not likely that the parachute deployment system still works after 53 years in space. "There are many uncertain factors in whether the lander will survive reentry though, including that this will be a long shallow reentry trajectory, and the age of the object," Langbroek wrote. If you find yourself along one of the lines on this map, perhaps it's worth keeping track of Kosmos 482 over the next couple of days—out of curiosity more than worry. Chances are the spacecraft will fall into the ocean or over an unpopulated area. But what happens in the unlikely event that Kosmos 482 winds up in your yard? "If Kosmos defies the odds and does land in your yard, please don’t touch it!" the Aerospace Corporation said. "It could potentially be hazardous, and it is best to notify your local authorities. "As for keeping it, don’t get your hopes up," Aerospace says. "There is a United Nations treaty that governs found debris—the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. It states that countries keep ownership of objects they launch into space, even after those objects reenter and return to Earth. The country that launched the object in this case is Russia, which could request the return of any parts that survived reentry. "It is also worth noting that the treaty says that the launching country is also internationally liable for damages." Stephen Clark Space Reporter Stephen Clark Space Reporter Stephen Clark is a space reporter at Ars Technica, covering private space companies and the world’s space agencies. Stephen writes about the nexus of technology, science, policy, and business on and off the planet. 18 Comments