Will people really pay $200 a month for OpenAIs new chatbot?
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On Thursday, OpenAI released whats effectively a $200-a-month chatbot and the AI community didnt know quite what to make of it.The companys new ChatGPT Pro plan grants access to o1 pro mode, which OpenAI says uses more compute for the best answers to the hardest questions. A souped-up version of OpenAIs o1 reasoning model, o1 pro mode should answer questions relating to science, math, and coding more reliably and comprehensively, OpenAI says.Almost immediately, people started asking it to draw unicorns: And design a crab-based computer: And wax poetic on the meaning of life:But many folks on X didnt seem convinced that o1 pro modes answers were, well, $200-level.Have OpenAI shared any concrete examples of prompts that fail in regular o1 but succeed in o1-pro? asked British computer scientist Simon Willison. I want to see a single concrete example that shows its advantage.Its a reasonable question; after all, this is the worlds most expensive chatbot subscription. The service comes with other benefits, like the removal of rate limits and unlimited access to OpenAIs other models. But $2,400 per year isnt chump change, and the value proposition of o1 pro mode in particular remains murky.It didnt take long to find failure cases. O1 pro mode struggles with Sudoku, and its tripped up by an optical illusion joke thats obvious to any human.OpenAIs internal benchmarks show that o1 pro mode performs only slightly better than the standard o1 on coding and math problems:Image Credits:OpenAIOpenAI ran a stricter evaluation on the same benchmarks to showcase o1 pro modes consistency: the model was only considered to have solved a question if it got the answer right four out of four times. But even in these tests, the improvements werent dramatic:Image Credits:OpenAIOpenAI CEO Sam Altman, who once wrote that OpenAI was on a path towards intelligence too cheap to meter, was forced to clarify multiple times on Thursday that ChatGPT Pro isnt for most people. Most users will be very happy with the o1 in the [ChatGPT] Plus tier! he said on X. Almost everyone will be best-served by our free tier or the Plus tier.So who is it for? Are there really people out there willing to pay $200 a month to ask toy questions like Write a 3-paragraph essay on strawberries without using the letter e or solve this Math Olympiad problem? Will they happily part ways with their hard-earned cash without much guarantee that the standard o1 cant satisfactorily answer the same questions?I asked Ameet Talwalkar, an associate professor of machine learning atUCLA computer scientist Guy Van den Broeck was more candid in his assessment. I dont know if the price point makes sense, he told TechCrunch, and if pricey reasoning models will be the norm. A generous take is that its a marketing blunder. Describing o1 pro mode as best at solving the hardest problems doesnt tell prospective customers much. Nor do vague statements about how the model can think longer and demonstrate intelligence. As Willison points out, without specific examples of this supposedly improved capability, its hard to justify paying more at all, let alone ten times the price.So far as I can tell, experts in specialized fields are the intended audience. OpenAI says it plans to grant a handful of medical researchers at leading institutions free access to ChatGPT Pro, which will include o1 pro mode. Mistakes matter a lot in healthcare, and, as Bob McGrew, OpenAIs former chief research officer, noted on X, better reliability is perhaps o1 pro modes chief unlock.McGrew also mused o1 pro mode is an example of what he calls intelligence overhang: users (and perhaps the models creators) not knowing how to get value from any extra intelligence due to fundamental limits of a simple, text-based interface. As with OpenAIs other models, the only way to interact with o1 pro mode is through ChatGPT, and to McGrews point ChatGPT isnt perfect. Its also true, though, that $200 sets expectations high. And judging by the early reception on social media, ChatGPT Pro is no slam dunk.
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