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Assad is gone. Will Syrian refugees go home?
Millions of Syrians around the world are celebrating the sudden fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime dictatorship and the end of 13 years of civil war.The war came to a rapid, stunning end earlier this month, after Syrian rebel forces swept through the country and into its capital of Damascus after less than two weeks of fighting.Now, those Syrian refugees displaced by years of conflict are faced with a difficult decision: whether to return home to a Syria that is free but in ruins or to remain in their host countries.For many, the decision to repatriate depends on where they now live. Millions of Syrian refugees reside in countries bordering Syria Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan and endure precarious conditions in crowded and destitute refugee camps. Others are internally displaced within Syria.Well more than a million others have been taken in by European countries, the UK, the United States, and Canada, and may want to wait and see what comes next. They may be eager to reestablish ties with family and friends, but hesitant to uproot their families, including children who may have no memory of life in Syria.Some countries arent waiting for refugees to decide for themselves, however, or for Syria to rebuild. Austria, which is home to about 100,000 Syrian migrants, has already announced deportation plans. Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and the UK have suspended asylum applications from Syrians, and France is considering similar action.But Syrias future is far from certain. The countrys economy is in tatters, inflation is high, and public infrastructure has been decimated. Basic amenities like clean water, electricity, and housing are difficult to find. The coalition of rebel groups that overthrew the Assad regime is led by an Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. HTS is designated by the US and the UN as a terror group, but has also broken with al-Qaeda and attempted to establish itself as a legitimate actor in Syria.Today, Explained host Noel King spoke about the plight of Syrian refugees with Amany Qaddour. She directs the humanitarian nongovernmental organization Syria Relief & Development and is an associate faculty member at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.Below is an excerpt of their conversation, edited for length and clarity. Theres much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and Spotify.Noel KingYou are Syrian American. Do I have that right? Can you just tell me about your ties to Syria?Amany QaddourMy heritage is Syrian. My parents are Syrian, but I grew up in the US my whole life. I grew up in the Midwest.Noel KingAnd where are we reaching you, Amany?Amany QaddourIm in Gaziantep, Turkey. So for those unfamiliar, its in the southeast of Turkey, one of the cities that was the epicenter of the earthquakes that hit last year.Noel KingI want to get a sense of the scale of movement that happened as a result of Syrias decade-plus-long civil war. There were people who left the country. There were people who moved around inside the country. What are we talking about in terms of numbers and where did people tend to end up?Amany QaddourLets talk about outflow first. This is a country that has probably 6 million to 7 million refugees outside of the country, one of the highest for those that have been following Syria for the past decade-plus. This is one of the highest numbers of refugees across the world, now probably closely tied with Afghanistan and Ukraine. But for quite some time it was Syria. A lot of these refugees ended up in surrounding countries. And then the rest ended up in many, many places: Europe, the UK, the US, Canada. But I would say the bulk of refugee-hosting countries for Syrians have been the surrounding ones, including Turkey, where I reside right now. And then in terms of inflow within the country, across the various governorates, the majority of displaced communities have been in the northwest. This is one of the highest displaced populations across the world right now. Within the country, its about 6 or so million displacements. And in the northwest, its housed about 4 million. These 4 million have come from other parts of the northwest as a result of aerial attacks to civilian infrastructure, hospitals, clinics, schools, marketplaces for those that have followed Syrias catastrophic inflection points, chemical weapons attacks, seizures on various cities so a lot of these people have come from Idlib and Aleppo, essentially just moving from place to place depending on where there have been attacks on civilians. The rest have come from some of the other governorates Damascus, Homs, Hama. A lot of these people may have been fleeing because of how dangerous it was to reside in some of these other governorates. Some were fleeing forced military conscription, particularly young men of military age. So really, a mixture of reasons. But the northwest in particular, I would say, is really housing the majority of the displaced.Noel KingFor those Syrians who were forced to flee outside of Syria, what did it mean for the countries where they ended up?Amany QaddourIts really varied. This has been a microcosm of so many other crises. Over the past 13 years, theres been a lot of really touching solidarity with the Syrian people. I think people have been so tremendously generous in hosting Syrians in different countries. But then there have also been waves of anti-refugee sentiment, where a lot of countries are also looking inward now at their own economic conditions, their own workforce, their own health systems, if theyre able to actually subsidize these health services for their own populations. A lot of this also changed post-Covid, where countries also had serious economic issues, not just developing countries, not just in fragile settings, but also in more developed countries like the US and many countries in Europe as well.Noel KingSo a mix of reactions, some of them very good, some of them not so good. What are you hearing from Syrians who were displaced outside of the country now that Bashar al-Assad is gone? Do they want to go home?Amany QaddourI think yes, but theres a caveat. I think, without getting emotional about this, you can feel the hope and you can see the resilience of the Syrian people across the world right now in scenes of people celebrating in almost every country and real solidarity. I think this is a moment in history, this is a moment in time for people and before discussing whats next, lets let Syrians have this moment. Lets let them celebrate, rejoice. Feel the joy. Feel the pain. Feel the suffering. Feel the loss and the family separation, the detainment, the persecutions. This is a bittersweet moment for a lot of people. And I think its really important to let them process all of this. On the other hand, a lot of Syrians are now either wanting to return or, at a minimum, just get permission to enter the country, to reunite with parents that they havent seen for ten years, young men and women that had to leave the country, separate from their families, out of safety or simply because of how much economic deterioration there was. Im very cautious about what this means when many say they want to return. Is the time necessarily now? No. Is there a firm timeline? I also dont know. What I would say, especially to host countries is, this is not a moment to exploit asylum policies. This is not a moment to sort of weaponize this critical point in time and immediately start discussing returns, especially if theyre not this trifecta: voluntary, safe, and dignified for people. Noel KingThis has been a contentious issue in some European countries. Have any European countries come out since Assad was forced out and said, we actually plan to do things differently now?Amany QaddourSo its been a dizzying few days. I believe Austria has. I am cautious to mention names of other countries, but even prior to this moment in time, a few countries have been looking at their migration policies. Germany has been looking at its migration policies. Holland has been looking. Denmark is really trying to understand what are the conditions in Syria so that they can also reframe or recalibrate their own migration policies and determine, is it safe for returns and can Syrians be sent back now?Noel KingIf people were to choose to go back, what are they going back to? What does Syria look like now?Amany QaddourThats really hard. A lot of people, its just home for them. Its just, Im going back home. Im going back to mom and dad or my brothers and sisters that were 5 years old before, and now theyre teenagers. So many of my colleagues, my team are going back right now and reuniting with family. And its so touching. I think a lot of people had lost hope. There was a clear disillusionment, I would say, with the international system. But I do worry that what people are going back to now, the country needs reconstruction. It needs development. Its been destroyed. So there really isnt, in certain areas, much to go back to. Thats not the case for all parts of Syria. Inflation has hit the country hard. And this is also situated within wider regional instability and also major inflation rates in the region. So generally, economic insecurity in Syria and outside, which also adds to some of the push-pull factors for some Syrians that have struggled also outside of the country, especially in neighboring countries, unable to afford basic services, basic amenities. You have decimated infrastructure. So public infrastructure, schools, and very few job prospects. And across the health system Im a public health practitioner, so this has been my area of focus for many, many years now the hospital and health care infrastructure thats almost completely collapsed in certain areas. Noel KingWe talked to a young man named Omar Alshogre earlier in the show whos 29 years old. He said his hometown is the most beautiful place in the world. But hes been in Europe since he was about 19 or 20. He has a whole life there. And so this is going to be a very, very hard call for someone like this young man. I imagine youre going to hear those types of stories again and again and again over the coming months and years.Amany QaddourYeah, definitely. I think a lot of people now are grappling with this, especially a lot of my colleagues and friends whove had children that have been born in other countries now. And theres this identity, where we hear theres something called Syria that were originally from there. What that actually means, they may be too young to process that. They may feel theyre Jordanian, they may feel theyre Turkish, they may feel theyre British. So really thinking about the identity of not only children that were born outside of the country now and that are now teens or tweens, but also some of these people that left right at the end of university or high school. And the majority of their formative years now have been lived outside of the country.Its a big decision to move back at this point in time, especially when there arent these amenities, there arent these services. Theres also a whole generation that has not been able to access education in the country. Where are you able to secure your own livelihood, your own education? Is that going to be immediately in Syria tomorrow? Absolutely not. Its going to take time. Its a tough decision then to kind of uproot them all over again, especially when some of the ones in Jordan and Lebanon, theyre on their fourth or fifth or sixth displacement. Theyve started their lives over multiple times. So some also just want stability in any form. And I think its just theres only so much a person can handle.Youve read 1 article in the last monthHere at Vox, we're unwavering in our commitment to covering the issues that matter most to you threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the environment, and the rising polarization across this country.Our mission is to provide clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to stay informed and engaged in shaping our world. By becoming a Vox Member, you directly strengthen our ability to deliver in-depth, independent reporting that drives meaningful change.We rely on readers like you join us.Swati SharmaVox Editor-in-ChiefSee More:
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