Holiday travel and the associated crowds like the one seen here at the Tom Bradley International ... [+] Terminal at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on December 26, 2024, will help the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) travel and spread too. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)Getty ImagesLooks like yet another end-of-the-year COVID-19 surge is happening. But this year it seems to be getting a whole lot less attention than such COVID surges in previous years. Thats helped earn this latest upswing the following nickname: the silent COVID-19 surge. But this doesnt mean that you should simply stay in an enjoy the silence mode and be lulled into a false sense of security. Failing to take appropriate precautions could leave you open to getting COVID, both the long and the short of it.XEC Variant Has Become Dominant In COVID-19 SurgeIt shouldnt be too surprising that the colder and drier weather is bringing a surge this time of the year as it has had each year since 2020. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 just keeps doing what it does oh-so-well: it just keeps mutating and mutating and mutating, resulting in more and more variants. Leading the charge now silentlybecause viruses dont talkis the XEC variant of the SARS-CoV-2. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the XEC variant has comprised 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections from December 8 through December 21. In second place was the KP.3.1.1 at 24% followed by the LP.8.1 at 8%. None of the rest of the alphabet soup of FLiRT family descendants constituted more than 5% of the bunch.Wastewater Surveillance Data Suggests COVID-19 SurgeThe number one indication that a COVID surge is happening right now is from a number two thing: wastewater surveillance, which is basically testing samples of poop-filled sewage water for the virus. A CDC map of the U.S. shows that in the December 8-14 time period, wastewater viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater samples was measured to be either high or very high in 21 states. Thats after many states remained at moderate-to-low levels throughout much of the Fall.While wastewater surveillance is far from a complete waste, the accuracy of wastewater surveillance does depend on where and how often samples are taken. Just because measured SARS-CoV-2 activity is low doesnt necessarily mean that virus isnt spreading substantially among the human population. There can be a substantial delay between people getting infected and the virus being detected in wastewater. Additionally, its never a good idea to rely on a single measure for anything. Thats kind of why dating profiles have more than just height listed on them.Lack Of Comprehensive And Proactive Surveillance Data System Makes It Difficult To Detect COVID-19 SurgeThese days its actually a whole lot harder to figure out when and where theres a COVID surge. If you go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID Data Tracker, the first things that youll find are four measures. The first is the test positivity rate listed as 5.6% for the week ending December 14, 2024, which is higher than the 5.1% from the previous week. This no longer has the accuracy that it may have had back in 2020 when a lot more testing was going on and being reported. Also, youll notice that its been two weeks since that week so that value isnt exactly up to date.MORE FOR YOUThe other three measures listed are:The percentage of all emergency room visits that received a COVID-19 diagnosis: This was 0.7% for the week ending December 14, which was the same as the week prior. These numbers may not be very accurate because its not clear how many people visiting the ER are getting tested for COVID these days. Moreover, ER data has always been an after-the-surge-has-already-been-occurring-for-a-while measure. People wont go to the ER until after they develop severe enough symptoms, which can be one to two weeks after they got infected.The number of hospitalizations per 100,000 people in the population: This was 1.6 for the week ending November 30 and down from 1.7 the week prior. But the week ending November 30 is even more out-of-date than the week ending December 14. Hospitalization data have the same aforementioned weaknesses that ER data do.The percentage of all deaths that were due to COVID: This was 1.1% for the week ending December 14 up from 0.8% the week prior. This is also an after-the-surge-has-already-been-occurring-for-a-while measureAdditionally, these three measure are sort of like overly large shoulder pads, skinny jeans and oversized logo clothinga bit out of date as the primary measures. The nature of COVID has changed since the earlier pandemic days. As more and more people have gotten more and more exposure to the spike protein through vaccination and infection, peoples immune systems are less virginal to the virus and instead know how to better handle SARS-CoV-2. This probably has helped more severe acute COVID-19 outcomes less and less likely.That doesnt mean that the SARS-CoV-2 is no longer a significant threat. A SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to bring the risk of long Covid. The exact risk is not known because long Covid hasnt been aggressively followed. In fact, the number of current long Covid cases is not really since the U.S. never really developed an effective surveillance system for long Covid.Youve also probably heard the term silent but deadly. Just because the risk of death from COVID-19 is now lower than it was in the early years of the pandemic doesnt mean that it cant happen. This is especially true if your immune system is weaker.How To Protect Yourself During This Silent COVID-19 SurgeOf course, not talking about COVID-19 doesnt mean that it has gone away. The trouble, though, is many people are acting as if COVID has gone the way of the sweater vest and not taking enough precautions, you know all those things the pandemic was supposed to teach us. These include:Washing your hands frequently and thoroughly: Remember to lather up with soap for at least 20 seconds, which is the amount of time it takes to since from the start to the end of the first chorus in the song I Touch Myself, as Ive written previously for Forbes. This remains important not just against SARS-CoV-2 but also against the multitude of other pathogens out there, including the flu.Staying home when youre sick: You are not that important for work or that party, certainly not important to get everyone else sick.Practicing appropriate social distancing: If that coughing stranger wants to sidle up to you to talk about psychedelics, crypto or whatever, keep your distance.Keeping indoor spaces well-ventilated with air purification: This can include using a HEPA (High Efficiency Particle Arresting) filter to remove harmful particles from the air.Wear a face mask when and where the risk is higher such as crowded public indoor locations: Sure, some political and business leaders have managed to politicize the heck out of face masks. But N95 masks are designed to block virus particles, and scientific studies have supported the effectiveness in reducing the risk of transmission.Getting the updated COVID-19 vaccine: The protection offered by vaccination tends to begin waning at the four to six month mark. Plus the vaccine from previous years targeted much earlier version of the virus.Again, the 2024 edition of the end-of-year COVID-19 surge may not be getting attention from political leaders. But as history has shown, just because political leaders dont talk about something doesnt mean that it isnt a problem.