WWW.FASTCOMPANY.COM
Fitch issues global 2025 housing market forecast: America up, China down
Want more housing market stories from Lance LambertsResiClubin your inbox?Subscribeto theResiClubnewsletter.According to Fitch Ratings, home prices in 2024 rose in 13 of the 15 major countries analysts at the credit rating agency track, including a 4% jump in U.S. home prices.The biggest home price increases were found in the Netherlands (13%), Colombia (10%), and Mexico (9.3%), while France (3%) and China (7.8%) saw the only decreases.Whats going on in Chinas housing market?After decades of a booming property market and rapid urbanization, China is experiencing a property bust. Unlike the U.S. housing market, where most analysts consider the market under built, many analysts believe that China has a glut of supply driven by speculation, with many investors buying and owning empty units purely based on expectations of appreciation. As the Chinese government works to rein in the debt crisis in the property sector, it has tightened credit standards, which has the negative consequence of making it harder for Chinese homebuyers to obtain financing amid the bust.Will China home prices, which began falling in 2022, bottom out in 2025?The [Chinese] housing market is still in a precarious position, and much depends on the governments follow through on support, wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in November. Without intervention, Goldman Sachs Research estimates that property values may be at risk of falling by another 20% or 25%, which would drop them to about half of the peak in prices. But the government moves are positive nonetheless, and our researchers now estimate that [China] property prices may stabilize by late 2025. Fitch Ratings is not as optimistic about China as Goldman Sachs.While analysts at Fitch Ratings expect U.S. home prices to rise by 2% to 4% in 2025, they expect Chinese home prices to fall by another 4% to 6% in 2025, according to the final 2025 home price forecast just published.According to Fitch Ratingss preliminary 2026 forecast, which was also just published, the group expects U.S. home prices to increase by 3% to 5% in 2026, while China remains in correction mode, with China home prices expected to fall by 2% to 4% in 2026.For more 2025 and 2026 housing market forecasts, check out ResiClubs roundup of U.S. home price forecasts from 26 firms.
0 Comments 0 Shares 55 Views