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Builders have the most unsold inventory since 2009. Heres what it means for the housing market
Want more housing market stories from Lance LambertsResiClubin your inbox?Subscribeto theResiClubnewsletter.Since the pandemic housing boom fizzled out in 2022, the number of unsold completed new homes has been on a steady climb. The number of unsold completed new single-family homes in October 2024 (113,000) was the highest level since August 2009 (118,000)although still far below the all-time high in September 2007 (194,000).This raises the question: Is rising standing inventory simply a sign that the new construction market is normalizing after a historic pandemic housing boom, or do buildersparticularly in areas where unsold inventory is increasing the mostneed to make further affordability adjustments, such as cutting prices or offering greater incentives?To get a better understanding, ResiClub rounded up three different perspectives explaining what the rise in unsold completed new home inventory means.Click here to view an interactive version of the chart below.1. Meritage Homes CEO says theyre building more spec inventory because theyre expecting a strong 2025 spring market.Speaking on CNBC in December, Phillippe Lord, CEO of publicly-traded homebuilder Meritage Homes, said that rising new home inventory isnt bearish for builders.Inventory is definitely up across all the markets, both existing home inventory is slowly coming back and then new home construction is definitely up as wellbut thats really intentional by all of us [homebuilders], Lord told CNBC. We still see an opportunity to fill that void [not enough existing home supply] by providing move-in ready inventory for all these customers that cant find that inventory in the existing home market, which is traditionally where they shop. So, a lot of new home builders are building more speculative inventory to really fill that void, and were all expecting a strong spring [2025] selling season based on what were seeing today.2. Housing analyst Kevin Erdmann thinks its a bullishnot bearishsign for builders.Most of the time, the number of completed homes for sale rises because there is demand for them. That has never been more true than it is today, Erdmann, who publishes the Erdmann Housing Tracker, tells ResiClub. Normally, we might worry that at the end of a cycle, declining sales will lead to one last, unsustainable increase in completed homes for sale. In todays market, builders need to keep working to add more completed home inventory so that sales can increase. Rising inventory is bullish [here]. 3. High standing inventory could prompt builders to offer discounts or slow down activity in Texas and Florida, suggests housing analyst Rick Palacios Jr.Homebuilders are heading into 2025 with the highest standing inventory since 2010. Elevated mortgage rates, more resale competition, and the new home industrys push toward spec construction are all contributing forces, Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Research and Consulting, wrote on LinkedIn last month. Standing inventory varies locally, with Florida, the Southeast, and Texas all at cycle highs according to our survey work, he writes. These three regions represent the meat of the new home market, so any strategic slowing of single-family starts due to this shifting supply backdrop will have major implications for overall industry growth numbers. Were already seeing single-family starts activity cool more than expected seasonally through November.
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