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1.5 degrees of warming has always been a red line for climate. We just passed it
This week, multiple wildfires have burned more than 33,000 acres across Los Angeles, fueled by a rare set of perfectly terrible conditions, including a midwinter drought.On the other side of the country, freezing temperatures are blanketing states as part of a polar vortex disruption that, somewhat paradoxically, is more frequent in a warming world. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia has seen unprecedented flooding, and Australia is in the throes of a heat wave that is worsening bushfires. Amid all that destruction, scientists just confirmed that 2024 was the first year that global temperature averages exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming since the preindustrial era.2024 saw its own share of climate disasters, from monsoon flooding in the Philippines to devastating hurricanes that hit North Carolina and Florida to record-breaking heat and wildfires in Canada. In the U.S. alone, the Federal Emergency Management Agency declared an unprecedented 179 disasters in 2024, equivalent to one every two days.For years, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius has been a goal set as part of the Paris climate agreement. Climate scientists warned that if we hit 1.5 degrees of warming above preindustrial levels, we would see devastating impacts: more than a billion people exposed to severe heat waves once every five years; coral reefs likely to decline 70% to 90%; sea level potentially rising 2.5 feet on average.Before 2024 was even over, as it was on track to be the warmest year on record, some expected it would surpass that 1.5 degree threshold. The Copernicus Climate Change Service, part of the European Unions Earth Observation Programme, has now confirmed that. Human-induced climate change remains the primary driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures, it said, though it also noted that other factors, such as the El Nio Southern Oscillation, contributed to the unusual temperatures experienced over the past year.Still, 2024 was the warmest year on record based on global temperature archives dating as far back as 1850. And it was the first calendar year to reach a global average temperature 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels.Each year in the last decade is one of the 10 warmest on record. We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5C level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level, Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said in a statement. These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapor levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heat waves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.Human-caused climate changein which the burning of fossil fuels leads to extreme levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere that warm the planetexacerbates extreme weather. It makes everything from severe storms and flooding to heat waves, droughts, and wildfires more frequent and intense.The focus on limiting warming to 1.5 degrees hasnt worked as a climate messaging strategyclearly, since we failed to prevent it from happening. Part of the issue is the binary it creates: that we must avoid 1.5 degrees of warming, or else. In fact, the world doesnt immediately end at 1.5 degrees, it just gradually gets worse. That means climate skeptics still have room to say weve hit this deadline, and yet the world is still standing.For much of the globe, though, things arent fine at this level of warming. And even though 2024 hit this threshold, its not a reason to give up on climate action. If warming continues to 2 degrees C, or even 3 degrees, the effects will be more extreme: the complete decline of our coral reefs, an ice-free Arctic Ocean, up to 50% declines in key crop yields.Humanity is in charge of its own destiny, but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence, Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus, said in a statement. The future is in our handsswift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate.
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