In recent months, Americans may have noticed a rise in the cost of their favorite chocolate bars, but this price spike is linked to more than inflation.In 2024, the price of cocoa beanschocolates essential ingredientmore than doubled compared to 2023. This surge isnt just an economic blip; its a wake-up call about the deepening impact of climate change on the chocolate we consume.For every 5 pounds of cocoa beans sold on global markets, 3 come from West Africa. Cte dIvoire alone grows about 40%, and another 14% is harvested in neighboring Ghana. However, the region is increasingly vulnerable to changing weather patterns. And in 2024, a devastating drought in Ghana cut the countrys cocoa production by nearly a third, according to the International Cocoa Organization, which oversees 53 cocoa importing and exporting countries.Costly CocoaThis drought led to a global cocoa shortage, causing prices to skyrocket for manufacturers. In May 2024, the cost of 1 metric ton of cocoa beans hit nearly $11,000, a sharp increase from just under $3,000 a year earlier.In a conference call in August, Hershey CEO Michele Buck highlighted the pressure that West Africas shortage put on the $37 billion company, saying, We believe the current cocoa price is not sustainable.The surge prompted U.S. chocolate companies, like Hershey, to raise prices ahead of the 2024 holiday season. While Hershey was tight-lipped about the exact percentage of price increases, the company acknowledged in its February 2024 earnings call that it planned to raise prices across various products to account for rising cocoa costs. Given where cocoa prices are, we will be using every tool in our toolbox, including pricing, as a way to manage the business, Buck said.(And while the company hasnt commented on specific price increases, consumers have likely noticed them: In 2023, for example, a bag of Hersheys Kisses cost $6.99 at Target; today, that same bag is $9.49.)Halloween candy on display at an Austin Walmart Supercenter in October 2024 [Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images]While conglomerates like Hershey might be able to withstand current economic pressures, the cocoa shortage may prove more damaging for smaller businesses. Dahlia Graham of Fruition Chocolate Works, which has a shop in New York and sells to 600 stores nationwide, said that in December 2024, the company raised prices on chocolate bars by 20%, making a $9.60 artisan chocolate bar $12.Maya Zellman, owner of the Brazilian chocolate shop Mayas Brigadeiro, in Los Angeles, also hiked prices. Its unfortunate when something thats out of our control, like a rise in cocoa [prices], changes that margin and then we have to make that choice, Zellman said.This month, cocoa prices remain at a steep $10,000 per metric ton, signaling that consumers costs are unlikely to ease anytime soon.The Climate Problem: One Ingredient in Ghanas CocoaThe cocoa shortage came after unexpectedly heavy rainfall during Ghanas dry season in 2023 and then drought in 2024. Climate scientist Kiswendsida Guigma, of the Red Cross Climate Center, says its just one example of the climate extremes that the African continent has been experiencing due to climate change in recent years.The United Nations estimated that Ghanas 2024 drought affected more than 1 million people, resulting in staggering crop losses and record-high food prices.Ghanaian cocoa merchants like Ebenezer Boateng experienced its effects firsthand. When we begin to notice that maybe the rains are not coming, we know that we are not going to get [the cocoa] like we used to. So we had to quickly engage in other crops like cashew, he said over a WhatsApp call from Ghana.A pile of cocoa pods shows of black pod disease during a harvest at a farm in the town of Kwabeng, Ghana. Punishing rains and the relentless creep of black pod disease are pushing futures to their highest since the 1970s. [Photo: Paul Ninson/Bloomberg/Getty Images]Cocoa farming in Ghana relies on rainfall because irrigation systems for the crop arent common. But farmers and scientists say heavy rainfall can be just as damaging as droughts. This combination of extreme rainfall events and prolonged dry spells will have implications on the agriculture sector, Guigma said.Severe droughts and floods are both hydroclimatic extremescatastrophic climate events related to water or the lack thereofexacerbated by climate change, according to Guigma, who studies heat waves, floods, and droughts in West Africa. Guigma and other scientists at the Climate Center work on forecasting climate conditions and developing plans to help countries prepare for extreme weather events.If [we] understand what causes [climate extremes], we can also more easily predict when they will happen and how severe they will be, he said.Climate change is also exacerbating tree diseases, like cacao swollen shoot virus disease, which is detrimental to cocoa. Its a virus that slowly depletes the energy of the tree. It produces fewer and fewer pods and eventually will kill the tree, said Victoria Kichuk, a chocolate sommelier and founder of Cocoa Beantown, which puts on chocolate events and tours in Boston.The disease is spread by white fuzzy insects called mealybugs. They breed rapidly in hot and dry weather, so drought exacerbates swollen shoot disease. Currently, theres no known cure.The only way to get rid of the virus in the trees is you have to rip the trees out and burn them, Kichuk said.But despite the effects on agriculture and livelihoods, Guigma says the search for solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change in West African countries like Ghana isnt often a priority.This is yet an overlooked issue in the region, in Africa in general, and even more so on the West African side, because of the many competing priorities in the region, Guigma said. Besides climate, we have a lot of political and conflict issues, and as a result, its not always easy for decision-makers to make it a priority.To locals like Boateng, a second-generation cocoa farmer, its clear that climate change is just one piece of cocoas volatility. Small-scale illegal gold mining operations, known as galamsey, are encroaching on cocoa farms, damaging crops, and polluting water.We are suffering from not getting clean and proper water to even water our seedlings, because its full of chemicalscyanide and mercury, Boateng said, stressing that he worries about the effects of this mining on his livelihood.In a year or two to come, if nothing is done, I dont know what the [cocoa] industry will look like.A farmer attends to cocoa beans drying on a rack at a Ghanaian farm. [Photo: Paul Ninson/Bloomberg/Getty Images]The Future of CocoaKichuk, whos been in the chocolate industry for almost 15 years, shared ways the U.S. chocolate industry is trying to adapt to the shortage.This month, Hershey requested permission to purchase 90,000 metric tons of cocoa beans, according to Bloombergnearly double the federal limit of 49,000 tons, a clear effort to stockpile supplies amid the cocoa shortage. This additional 41,000 tons could cost the company up to $290 million, based on the average cost of beans in 2024, highlighting the financial strain manufacturers are facing.Major players like Hershey, Mars, and Nestl may also look for cocoa from other regions such as Latin America, which would amount to a major market shift.Graham, who is also president of the board of directors for the nonprofit Fine Chocolate Industry Association, already sources much of her cocoa from Latin America. But because Ghanas shortage continues to affect so much of the industry, prices for Latin American cocoa also increased in 2024. Ive seen the price go up on every single cocoa bean we source, Graham said.Manufacturers like Hershey are also experimenting with reducing the percentage of cocoa in their products, or replacing it with other ingredients altogether.This past May, Hershey announced a Kit Kat vanilla flavor, along with a pink lemonade flavor. For Halloween, Kit Kat used a cinnamon creme coating for its special ghost toast flavor, replacing the candys traditional chocolate covering.Other companies are experimenting with alternative ingredients for chocolate-like products. For example, Planet A Foods, a German startup, uses sunflower seeds and oats to create ChoViva, a chocolate alternative with a smaller environmental footprint. Unlike cocoa, these ingredients can be grown more sustainably and require less water, as cocoa production is water-intensive. Alternatives like fava beans, used by the U.K.-based startup Nukoko, are also being explored.Some of the appeal lies not just in the economic need to replace cocoa due to shortages, but in the environmental concerns tied to traditional cocoa farming.Cocoa farming contributes to deforestation, as large swaths of tropical forests are cleared to make room for cocoa plantations, exacerbating climate change. Some companies, like Celleste Bio, are experimenting with making lab-grown cocoa, which is identical to traditional cocoa but cultivated in a controlled environment. This innovation allows its production to take place anywhere in the world, free from the market fluctuations and environmental impacts associated with conventional cocoa farming.Ultimately, its unlikely that anything will replace Americans love of chocolateat least not anytime soon. I have yet to meet someone that remembers their first taste of chocolate, because for all of us, it happens when were so small, Kichuk said. But given the precarious realities of cocoa production, Americans may need to brace themselves for that relationship to evolve.