65 housing markets with an inventory surge that benefits homebuyers
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Want more housing market stories from Lance LambertsResiClubin your inbox?Subscribeto theResiClubnewsletter.Although homebuyers and home sellers continue to encounter headlines declaring the housing market a sellers domain with national home prices at record highs, a closer analysis shows that several regional markets have shifted, offering homebuyers increased leverage.During the pandemic housing boom, spanning from summer 2020 to spring 2022, active home listings in most housing markets dwindled as surging buyer demand rapidly consumed nearly every property that hit the market. Fast forward to today, and the housing markets where active inventory has returned to 2019 levels are now the ones where homebuyers have gained some power. As of December 2024, national active inventory remained 16% below December 2019 levels. However, a growing number of regional markets have surpassed that benchmark.Among the nations 200 largest metro area housing markets, 65 markets ended December 2024 with more active homes for sale than they had in pre-pandemic December 2019. These are the places heading into 2025 where homebuyers will be able to find the most leverage or market balance.Thats another uptick: Last month, when ResiClub ran this same analysis using final November data, only 59 housing markets were above pre-pandemic inventory levels.Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained leverage, are located in Gulf Coast and Mountain West regions. These areas were home to many of the nations top pandemic boomtowns, which experienced significant home price growth during the pandemic housing boom, which stretched housing prices far beyond local income levels.When pandemic-fueled migration slowed and mortgage rates spiked, markets like Punta Gorda, Florida, and Austin, Texas, faced challenges as they had to rely on local incomes to sustain frothy home prices. The housing market softening in these areas was further accelerated by the abundance of new home supply in the pipeline across the Sun Belt. Builders in these regions are often willing to reduce prices or make other affordability adjustments to maintain sales. These adjustments in the new construction market also create a cooling effect on the resale market, as some buyers who might have opted for an existing home shift their focus to new homes where deals are still available.In contrast, many Northeast and Midwest markets were less reliant on pandemic migration and have less new home construction in progress. With lower exposure to that demand shock, active inventory in these Midwest and Northeast regions has remained relatively tight, keeping the advantage in the hands of home sellers.Generally speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e., active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 24 months. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic levels have generally experienced stronger home price growth over the past 24 months.
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