Florida could see an 89% increase in home insurance rates thanks to climate change
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If you own a house, your insurance premiums have probably surged over the last several years. A new report outlines how much worse it could get as climate disasters keep growing: In Florida, for example, the insurance cost for an average house could go up 89% in the next 30 years. In Miami, the cost for a homeowner could go up by 322%, or an additional $11,000 a year.As you pay more for insurance, the value of your house is likely to simultaneously drop if youre in a high-risk area. The report, from the climate risk analysis nonprofit First Street, estimates that an average house in Florida will lose around 29% of its value by the 2050s. Meanwhile, home values will rise in certain areaslike Madison, Wisconsinthat face lower climate risk.The report classifies around 21,000 communities as climate abandonment neighborhoodsplaces with high climate risk and spikes in insurance premiums where populations are likely to decrease. Thousands of other areas are likely to later reach that tipping point. In other high-risk areas, like Miami, populations will keep growing because there are enough other amenities that people are willing to live with the risk and expense.What were seeing is that in some places where the economic structure is a little bit weaker, the impact of climate is stronger, says Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street. Its something thats just an additional factor that people decide, Okay, thats enough. I cant get a job here, and I also dont want to put up with persistent extreme rainfall events or something like that. As more people leave and cities have lower tax revenue, those local economies will struggle even more.Nationally, home insurance premiums are expected to rise by an average of 25.3%, with some of the steepest jumps in the West and Southwest. Idaho will see costs rise 50%; premiums in New Mexico could go up by 82%.In the past, insurance costs were relatively stable. In the 2000s and early 2010s, they were 7%-8% of mortgage payments. But over a little more than a decade, theyve grown by 115%. Thats because of the enormous losses that insurance companies are facing as disasters grow. In 2023, insurers paid out around 10% more than they collected in premiums. (Ironically, despite the impact on their business from climate change, insurance companies continue to invest in fossil fuels.) The report calculated how much insurers costs are likely to grow because of climate change, and how much premiums will correspondingly rise. When a homeowners insurance premiums go up, their house will be worth less when it sells. And as buyers better understand climate risks, that also impacts value. When a house gets added to a FEMA zone, for example, that discounts the value by 4%. Once awareness is raised around it, it does make the property a little less desirable, Porter says. It raises the flag that theres going to be a little more in terms of cost of homeownership for this property.In Paradise, California, after a devastating wildfire in 2018, insurance costs rose 36.8% by 2023. Property values dropped by 42%.First Street makes tools that homebuyers can use to better understand the risk of climate disasters like flooding or wildfire for a specific house. Now, if you search for a house on Zillow, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Homes.com, that data is integrated. A recent Zillow study found that 80% of homebuyers now consider at least one climate risk when theyre searching for a house.Homeowners can use the same tools to find ways to make their houses more resilient. If you live in a neighborhood that hasnt flooded in the past, for example, but First Streets models tell you that theres now a strong likelihood of flooding, you might invest in a rain garden, permeable pavement, or ditches in your yard (or, depending on your risk, you might spend much more to elevate your house). Insurance companies are beginning to more proactively encourage homeowners to make changes to prepare for disasters, including a California startup that focuses on homes in high-risk fire zones. City planners can use the same tools to plan for resilience, and try to help residents avoid some of the financial costs that the report predicts. While only a handful of large cities have teams focused on climate risk, the tools can help fill the gap for others. Understanding what parts of the community are at risk, which residents, which assets, which infrastructure pieces, gives them the ability then to effectively and efficiently allocate resources to protect the community and really adapt to the climate risk, Porter says.
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