H-1B And Immigration Restrictions Could Doom Trumps AI Plans
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Donald Trump holds up a signed executive order in the Oval Office of the White House on January 23, ... [+] 2025, in Washington, DC. Trump signed a range of executive orders pertaining to issues including crypto currency, Artificial Intelligence and other issues. Donald Trumps plans to ensure Americas AI leadership could fail without enacting policies to attract and retain foreign talent. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)Getty ImagesDonald Trumps plans to ensure Americas AI leadership could falter unless his administration makes attracting and retaining foreign-born talent easier. A report from the outgoing White House Council of Economic Advisers finds immigration remains crucial to the U.S. artificial intelligence workforce. A National Foundation for American Policy study concluded, Immigrants have founded or cofounded nearly two-thirds (65% or 28 of 43) of the top AI companies in the United States, and 70% of full-time graduate students in fields related to artificial intelligence are international students.Trumps Executive Order On AI Does Not Mention Immigration PolicyIt is the policy of the United States to sustain and enhance Americas global AI dominance in order to promote human flourishing, economic competitiveness, and national security, according to a presidential executive order issued January 23, 2025. To achieve this policy objective, the order tasks officials, including the special advisor for AI and crypto, to submit an action plan within 180 days.Unlike Joe Bidens executive order on AI, which Trump repealed, the new executive order does not mention immigration policy. Bidens order called on the secretaries of state and homeland security to attract and retain talent in AI and other critical and emerging technologies in the United States economy including by streamlining visa petitions and applications for individuals who will come to America to work on, study, or conduct research in AI or other critical and emerging technologies.The Biden executive order on AI resulted in U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issuing favorable guidance that increased approvals for O-1A visas for people with extraordinary ability and allowing more employment-based immigrants to qualify for national interest waivers in science and technology fields. In December 2024, the State Department made it easier for many scientists and others to remain in the United States on J-1 visas.The Trump AI executive order failing to mention the role of immigrants and attracting talent is ironic given that the new special advisor for AI and crypto, David Sacks, told Donald Trump on the Silicon Valley All-In podcast that liberalizing U.S. immigration policy was crucial to Americas technological future. Trump agreed with Sacks on the podcast and told him that he wanted international students who graduate from U.S. universities to get automatically as part of your diploma a green card to be able to stay in this country. Although Trump promised to address the issue on day one, he has not.David Sacks, Donald Trump's AI and Crypto Czar, listens to President Trump as he signs a series of ... [+] executive orders in the Oval Office on January 23, 2025.(Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)Getty ImagesEconomic Report Shows Significant Immigration Policy Role For Retaining AI TalentA report from the White House Council of Economic Advisers published at the end of the Biden administration states, Between 40% and 60% of AI-related masters degrees have been awarded to non-U.S. citizens in the last 5 years. For Ph.D.s, this share has been above 50% since 2003, most recently 59% in 2022. (The figure may be higher if one defines AI-related more broadly.)The report notes a significant shortcoming in the U.S. immigration system: Retaining talented people. The economists who authored the study indicated that liberalized reforms could help increase the supply of top talent in the United States.Immigration obstacles often prevent capable workersincluding many graduates of U.S. institutionsfrom moving to or staying in the United States and supplying their talents in the U.S. workforce, according to the report. Among non-U.S. citizen AI Ph.D.s who left the United States, over half cited immigration issues as relevant to their decision to leave. The report notes 60% of foreign Ph.D. recipients in the U.S. say they have trouble staying compared to 12% of Ph.D. holders in other countries.The economists concluded that a better immigration system would make it easier to retain talent and be more attractive for researchers who are educated outside the United States to come to the United States for work.The bipartisan National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence released a final report to Congress in 2021 that recommended changing U.S. immigration laws to allow America to attract and retain talent to compete in AI and other cutting-edge technologies. In a section titled Strengthen AI talent through immigration, the report concluded: Nations that can successfully attract and retain highly skilled individuals gain strategic and economic advantages over competitors. Human capital advantages are particularly significant in the field of AI, where demand for talent far exceeds supply. Highly skilled immigrants accelerate American innovation, improve entrepreneurship and create jobs.Young Engineers Crucial For Chinas DeepSeek AI StartupH-1B visas are the primary immigration category for retaining foreign talent and often the only practical work option for high-skilled foreign nationals. H-1B visa critics most oppose the ability of U.S. companies to hire young foreign-born tech talent out of U.S. universities, claiming that should not be allowed since they compete with older U.S.-born engineers. Research shows that H-1B visa holders expand job opportunities for U.S. professionals, including by encouraging more investment. U.C.-Davis professor Giovanni Peri and his colleagues concluded, We find no evidence that H-1B workers displace native-born computer-related workers in a local labor market.The recent success of the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, which focused on young engineers, shows America could make a grave error if it shifted its immigration system to primarily accepting experienced foreign talent over recent graduates from U.S. universities.In an interview with a Chinese publication in 2023, [DeepSeeks leader] Liang said most technical positions [at the company] were filled by fresh graduates or people with one or two years of experience, reported the Wall Street Journal. Experience, he said, was a potential obstacle. When doing something, experienced people will tell you without hesitation that you should do it this way, but inexperienced people will have to repeatedly explore and think seriously about how to do it, and then find a solution that suits the current actual situation, Liang said.The Wall Street Journal added, What they came up with is now being studied by Silicon Valleys best and brightest. At minimum, DeepSeeks experience shows the value of allowing companies to decide for themselves the best mix of employees.During Donald Trumps first term, many policies worked against retaining foreign-born talent from U.S. universities, including proposed measures to restrict international students from studying or working in the United States and a Labor Department rule aimed at pricing H-1B visa holders and employment-based immigrants out of the U.S. labor market. A failed Trump rule awarding H-1B visas from highest to lowest salary likely would have blocked many international student applicants in favor of the most senior scientists and engineers.During the Trump administration, companies hiring foreign nationals received hostile treatment, with H-1B denial rates for initial employment reaching 24% in FY 2018. About 60% of cases were handed costly Requests for Evidence. Some companies hope Elon Musks influence will prevent a renewed assault on H-1B visas. However, many analysts believe the restrictive policies on high-skilled immigration that White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller championed in Trumps first term could return and threaten Americas AI leadership in a competitive world.
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