Death from above: A new study warns that the risk of airplanes being struck by falling space debris is increasing. While the chances remain low and no such incident has occurred yet the potential consequences could be catastrophic. Researchers at the University of British Columbia analyzed global air traffic patterns against the projected re-entry paths of uncontrolled space debris.Near major airport hubs, they estimate a 0.8 percent annual probability of a re-entry event posing a threat. While that may seem low, in heavily trafficked airspaces like the Northeastern US or Northern Europe, the risk jumps to over 26 percent per year.This growing hazard stems from the increasing volume of objects launched into orbit, ranging from traditional satellites to massive constellations like Starlink and discarded rocket stages. As those numbers multiply, so do the chances of an aerial collision as the clutter eventually rains back down.Scientists have long warned about the risks posed by satellite constellations. Beyond creating streaks that interfere with astronomical observations, these satellites can disrupt radio signals and may even contribute to ozone depletion when they burn up upon re-entry.While we can sometimes predict re-entry events, the margin for error remains slim. Experts caution that even a 1-gram fragment striking a plane's windshield or engine could cause severe damage. Because these predictions are so imprecise, air traffic controllers often shut down large sections of airspace as a precaution, leading to widespread flight disruptions. // Related StoriesThe researchers emphasize the need for stricter measures to ensure satellites and rockets undergo controlled re-entry, ideally disintegrating over remote ocean regions. Currently, more than 2,300 large rocket bodies remain in orbit, most destined for an uncontrolled and unpredictable descent in the coming decades. Without improved deorbiting practices, airspace closures will likely become more frequent.The full study can be found in the journal Scientific Reports.
