• How a planetarium show discovered a spiral at the edge of our solar system

    If you’ve ever flown through outer space, at least while watching a documentary or a science fiction film, you’ve seen how artists turn astronomical findings into stunning visuals. But in the process of visualizing data for their latest planetarium show, a production team at New York’s American Museum of Natural History made a surprising discovery of their own: a trillion-and-a-half mile long spiral of material drifting along the edge of our solar system.

    “So this is a really fun thing that happened,” says Jackie Faherty, the museum’s senior scientist.

    Last winter, Faherty and her colleagues were beneath the dome of the museum’s Hayden Planetarium, fine-tuning a scene that featured the Oort cloud, the big, thick bubble surrounding our Sun and planets that’s filled with ice and rock and other remnants from the solar system’s infancy. The Oort cloud begins far beyond Neptune, around one and a half light years from the Sun. It has never been directly observed; its existence is inferred from the behavior of long-period comets entering the inner solar system. The cloud is so expansive that the Voyager spacecraft, our most distant probes, would need another 250 years just to reach its inner boundary; to reach the other side, they would need about 30,000 years. 

    The 30-minute show, Encounters in the Milky Way, narrated by Pedro Pascal, guides audiences on a trip through the galaxy across billions of years. For a section about our nascent solar system, the writing team decided “there’s going to be a fly-by” of the Oort cloud, Faherty says. “But what does our Oort cloud look like?” 

    To find out, the museum consulted astronomers and turned to David Nesvorný, a scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. He provided his model of the millions of particles believed to make up the Oort cloud, based on extensive observational data.

    “Everybody said, go talk to Nesvorný. He’s got the best model,” says Faherty. And “everybody told us, ‘There’s structure in the model,’ so we were kind of set up to look for stuff,” she says. 

    The museum’s technical team began using Nesvorný’s model to simulate how the cloud evolved over time. Later, as the team projected versions of the fly-by scene into the dome, with the camera looking back at the Oort cloud, they saw a familiar shape, one that appears in galaxies, Saturn’s rings, and disks around young stars.

    “We’re flying away from the Oort cloud and out pops this spiral, a spiral shape to the outside of our solar system,” Faherty marveled. “A huge structure, millions and millions of particles.”

    She emailed Nesvorný to ask for “more particles,” with a render of the scene attached. “We noticed the spiral of course,” she wrote. “And then he writes me back: ‘what are you talking about, a spiral?’” 

    While fine-tuning a simulation of the Oort cloud, a vast expanse of ice material leftover from the birth of our Sun, the ‘Encounters in the Milky Way’ production team noticed a very clear shape: a structure made of billions of comets and shaped like a spiral-armed galaxy, seen here in a scene from the final Space ShowMore simulations ensued, this time on Pleiades, a powerful NASA supercomputer. In high-performance computer simulations spanning 4.6 billion years, starting from the Solar System’s earliest days, the researchers visualized how the initial icy and rocky ingredients of the Oort cloud began circling the Sun, in the elliptical orbits that are thought to give the cloud its rough disc shape. The simulations also incorporated the physics of the Sun’s gravitational pull, the influences from our Milky Way galaxy, and the movements of the comets themselves. 

    In each simulation, the spiral persisted.

    “No one has ever seen the Oort structure like that before,” says Faherty. Nesvorný “has a great quote about this: ‘The math was all there. We just needed the visuals.’” 

    An illustration of the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud in relation to our solar system.As the Oort cloud grew with the early solar system, Nesvorný and his colleagues hypothesize that the galactic tide, or the gravitational force from the Milky Way, disrupted the orbits of some comets. Although the Sun pulls these objects inward, the galaxy’s gravity appears to have twisted part of the Oort cloud outward, forming a spiral tilted roughly 30 degrees from the plane of the solar system.

    “As the galactic tide acts to decouple bodies from the scattered disk it creates a spiral structure in physical space that is roughly 15,000 astronomical units in length,” or around 1.4 trillion miles from one end to the other, the researchers write in a paper that was published in March in the Astrophysical Journal. “The spiral is long-lived and persists in the inner Oort Cloud to the present time.”

    “The physics makes sense,” says Faherty. “Scientists, we’re amazing at what we do, but it doesn’t mean we can see everything right away.”

    It helped that the team behind the space show was primed to look for something, says Carter Emmart, the museum’s director of astrovisualization and director of Encounters. Astronomers had described Nesvorný’s model as having “a structure,” which intrigued the team’s artists. “We were also looking for structure so that it wouldn’t just be sort of like a big blob,” he says. “Other models were also revealing this—but they just hadn’t been visualized.”

    The museum’s attempts to simulate nature date back to its first habitat dioramas in the early 1900s, which brought visitors to places that hadn’t yet been captured by color photos, TV, or the web. The planetarium, a night sky simulator for generations of would-be scientists and astronauts, got its start after financier Charles Hayden bought the museum its first Zeiss projector. The planetarium now boasts one of the world’s few Zeiss Mark IX systems.

    Still, these days the star projector is rarely used, Emmart says, now that fulldome laser projectors can turn the old static starfield into 3D video running at 60 frames per second. The Hayden boasts six custom-built Christie projectors, part of what the museum’s former president called “the most advanced planetarium ever attempted.”

     In about 1.3 million years, the star system Gliese 710 is set to pass directly through our Oort Cloud, an event visualized in a dramatic scene in ‘Encounters in the Milky Way.’ During its flyby, our systems will swap icy comets, flinging some out on new paths.Emmart recalls how in 1998, when he and other museum leaders were imagining the future of space shows at the Hayden—now with the help of digital projectors and computer graphics—there were questions over how much space they could try to show.

    “We’re talking about these astronomical data sets we could plot to make the galaxy and the stars,” he says. “Of course, we knew that we would have this star projector, but we really wanted to emphasize astrophysics with this dome video system. I was drawing pictures of this just to get our heads around it and noting the tip of the solar system to the Milky Way is about 60 degrees. And I said, what are we gonna do when we get outside the Milky Way?’

    “ThenNeil Degrasse Tyson “goes, ‘whoa, whoa, whoa, Carter, we have enough to do. And just plotting the Milky Way, that’s hard enough.’ And I said, ‘well, when we exit the Milky Way and we don’t see any other galaxies, that’s sort of like astronomy in 1920—we thought maybe the entire universe is just a Milky Way.'”

    “And that kind of led to a chaotic discussion about, well, what other data sets are there for this?” Emmart adds.

    The museum worked with astronomer Brent Tully, who had mapped 3500 galaxies beyond the Milky Way, in collaboration with the National Center for Super Computing Applications. “That was it,” he says, “and that seemed fantastical.”

    By the time the first planetarium show opened at the museum’s new Rose Center for Earth and Space in 2000, Tully had broadened his survey “to an amazing” 30,000 galaxies. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey followed—it’s now at data release 18—with six million galaxies.

    To build the map of the universe that underlies Encounters, the team also relied on data from the European Space Agency’s space observatory, Gaia. Launched in 2013 and powered down in March of this year, Gaia brought an unprecedented precision to our astronomical map, plotting the distance between 1.7 billion stars. To visualize and render the simulated data, Jon Parker, the museum’s lead technical director, relied on Houdini, a 3D animation tool by Toronto-based SideFX.

    The goal is immersion, “whether it’s in front of the buffalo downstairs, and seeing what those herds were like before we decimated them, to coming in this room and being teleported to space, with an accurate foundation in the science,” Emmart says. “But the art is important, because the art is the way to the soul.” 

    The museum, he adds, is “a testament to wonder. And I think wonder is a gateway to inspiration, and inspiration is a gateway to motivation.”

    Three-D visuals aren’t just powerful tools for communicating science, but increasingly crucial for science itself. Software like OpenSpace, an open source simulation tool developed by the museum, along with the growing availability of high-performance computing, are making it easier to build highly detailed visuals of ever larger and more complex collections of data.

    “Anytime we look, literally, from a different angle at catalogs of astronomical positions, simulations, or exploring the phase space of a complex data set, there is great potential to discover something new,” says Brian R. Kent, an astronomer and director of science communications at National Radio Astronomy Observatory. “There is also a wealth of astronomics tatical data in archives that can be reanalyzed in new ways, leading to new discoveries.”

    As the instruments grow in size and sophistication, so does the data, and the challenge of understanding it. Like all scientists, astronomers are facing a deluge of data, ranging from gamma rays and X-rays to ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and radio bands.

    Our Oort cloud, a shell of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system and extends one-and-a-half light years in every direction, is shown in this scene from ‘Encounters in the Milky Way’ along with the Oort clouds of neighboring stars. The more massive the star, the larger its Oort cloud“New facilities like the Next Generation Very Large Array here at NRAO or the Vera Rubin Observatory and LSST survey project will generate large volumes of data, so astronomers have to get creative with how to analyze it,” says Kent. 

    More data—and new instruments—will also be needed to prove the spiral itself is actually there: there’s still no known way to even observe the Oort cloud. 

    Instead, the paper notes, the structure will have to be measured from “detection of a large number of objects” in the radius of the inner Oort cloud or from “thermal emission from small particles in the Oort spiral.” 

    The Vera C. Rubin Observatory, a powerful, U.S.-funded telescope that recently began operation in Chile, could possibly observe individual icy bodies within the cloud. But researchers expect the telescope will likely discover only dozens of these objects, maybe hundreds, not enough to meaningfully visualize any shapes in the Oort cloud. 

    For us, here and now, the 1.4 trillion mile-long spiral will remain confined to the inside of a dark dome across the street from Central Park.
    #how #planetarium #show #discovered #spiral
    How a planetarium show discovered a spiral at the edge of our solar system
    If you’ve ever flown through outer space, at least while watching a documentary or a science fiction film, you’ve seen how artists turn astronomical findings into stunning visuals. But in the process of visualizing data for their latest planetarium show, a production team at New York’s American Museum of Natural History made a surprising discovery of their own: a trillion-and-a-half mile long spiral of material drifting along the edge of our solar system. “So this is a really fun thing that happened,” says Jackie Faherty, the museum’s senior scientist. Last winter, Faherty and her colleagues were beneath the dome of the museum’s Hayden Planetarium, fine-tuning a scene that featured the Oort cloud, the big, thick bubble surrounding our Sun and planets that’s filled with ice and rock and other remnants from the solar system’s infancy. The Oort cloud begins far beyond Neptune, around one and a half light years from the Sun. It has never been directly observed; its existence is inferred from the behavior of long-period comets entering the inner solar system. The cloud is so expansive that the Voyager spacecraft, our most distant probes, would need another 250 years just to reach its inner boundary; to reach the other side, they would need about 30,000 years.  The 30-minute show, Encounters in the Milky Way, narrated by Pedro Pascal, guides audiences on a trip through the galaxy across billions of years. For a section about our nascent solar system, the writing team decided “there’s going to be a fly-by” of the Oort cloud, Faherty says. “But what does our Oort cloud look like?”  To find out, the museum consulted astronomers and turned to David Nesvorný, a scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. He provided his model of the millions of particles believed to make up the Oort cloud, based on extensive observational data. “Everybody said, go talk to Nesvorný. He’s got the best model,” says Faherty. And “everybody told us, ‘There’s structure in the model,’ so we were kind of set up to look for stuff,” she says.  The museum’s technical team began using Nesvorný’s model to simulate how the cloud evolved over time. Later, as the team projected versions of the fly-by scene into the dome, with the camera looking back at the Oort cloud, they saw a familiar shape, one that appears in galaxies, Saturn’s rings, and disks around young stars. “We’re flying away from the Oort cloud and out pops this spiral, a spiral shape to the outside of our solar system,” Faherty marveled. “A huge structure, millions and millions of particles.” She emailed Nesvorný to ask for “more particles,” with a render of the scene attached. “We noticed the spiral of course,” she wrote. “And then he writes me back: ‘what are you talking about, a spiral?’”  While fine-tuning a simulation of the Oort cloud, a vast expanse of ice material leftover from the birth of our Sun, the ‘Encounters in the Milky Way’ production team noticed a very clear shape: a structure made of billions of comets and shaped like a spiral-armed galaxy, seen here in a scene from the final Space ShowMore simulations ensued, this time on Pleiades, a powerful NASA supercomputer. In high-performance computer simulations spanning 4.6 billion years, starting from the Solar System’s earliest days, the researchers visualized how the initial icy and rocky ingredients of the Oort cloud began circling the Sun, in the elliptical orbits that are thought to give the cloud its rough disc shape. The simulations also incorporated the physics of the Sun’s gravitational pull, the influences from our Milky Way galaxy, and the movements of the comets themselves.  In each simulation, the spiral persisted. “No one has ever seen the Oort structure like that before,” says Faherty. Nesvorný “has a great quote about this: ‘The math was all there. We just needed the visuals.’”  An illustration of the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud in relation to our solar system.As the Oort cloud grew with the early solar system, Nesvorný and his colleagues hypothesize that the galactic tide, or the gravitational force from the Milky Way, disrupted the orbits of some comets. Although the Sun pulls these objects inward, the galaxy’s gravity appears to have twisted part of the Oort cloud outward, forming a spiral tilted roughly 30 degrees from the plane of the solar system. “As the galactic tide acts to decouple bodies from the scattered disk it creates a spiral structure in physical space that is roughly 15,000 astronomical units in length,” or around 1.4 trillion miles from one end to the other, the researchers write in a paper that was published in March in the Astrophysical Journal. “The spiral is long-lived and persists in the inner Oort Cloud to the present time.” “The physics makes sense,” says Faherty. “Scientists, we’re amazing at what we do, but it doesn’t mean we can see everything right away.” It helped that the team behind the space show was primed to look for something, says Carter Emmart, the museum’s director of astrovisualization and director of Encounters. Astronomers had described Nesvorný’s model as having “a structure,” which intrigued the team’s artists. “We were also looking for structure so that it wouldn’t just be sort of like a big blob,” he says. “Other models were also revealing this—but they just hadn’t been visualized.” The museum’s attempts to simulate nature date back to its first habitat dioramas in the early 1900s, which brought visitors to places that hadn’t yet been captured by color photos, TV, or the web. The planetarium, a night sky simulator for generations of would-be scientists and astronauts, got its start after financier Charles Hayden bought the museum its first Zeiss projector. The planetarium now boasts one of the world’s few Zeiss Mark IX systems. Still, these days the star projector is rarely used, Emmart says, now that fulldome laser projectors can turn the old static starfield into 3D video running at 60 frames per second. The Hayden boasts six custom-built Christie projectors, part of what the museum’s former president called “the most advanced planetarium ever attempted.”  In about 1.3 million years, the star system Gliese 710 is set to pass directly through our Oort Cloud, an event visualized in a dramatic scene in ‘Encounters in the Milky Way.’ During its flyby, our systems will swap icy comets, flinging some out on new paths.Emmart recalls how in 1998, when he and other museum leaders were imagining the future of space shows at the Hayden—now with the help of digital projectors and computer graphics—there were questions over how much space they could try to show. “We’re talking about these astronomical data sets we could plot to make the galaxy and the stars,” he says. “Of course, we knew that we would have this star projector, but we really wanted to emphasize astrophysics with this dome video system. I was drawing pictures of this just to get our heads around it and noting the tip of the solar system to the Milky Way is about 60 degrees. And I said, what are we gonna do when we get outside the Milky Way?’ “ThenNeil Degrasse Tyson “goes, ‘whoa, whoa, whoa, Carter, we have enough to do. And just plotting the Milky Way, that’s hard enough.’ And I said, ‘well, when we exit the Milky Way and we don’t see any other galaxies, that’s sort of like astronomy in 1920—we thought maybe the entire universe is just a Milky Way.'” “And that kind of led to a chaotic discussion about, well, what other data sets are there for this?” Emmart adds. The museum worked with astronomer Brent Tully, who had mapped 3500 galaxies beyond the Milky Way, in collaboration with the National Center for Super Computing Applications. “That was it,” he says, “and that seemed fantastical.” By the time the first planetarium show opened at the museum’s new Rose Center for Earth and Space in 2000, Tully had broadened his survey “to an amazing” 30,000 galaxies. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey followed—it’s now at data release 18—with six million galaxies. To build the map of the universe that underlies Encounters, the team also relied on data from the European Space Agency’s space observatory, Gaia. Launched in 2013 and powered down in March of this year, Gaia brought an unprecedented precision to our astronomical map, plotting the distance between 1.7 billion stars. To visualize and render the simulated data, Jon Parker, the museum’s lead technical director, relied on Houdini, a 3D animation tool by Toronto-based SideFX. The goal is immersion, “whether it’s in front of the buffalo downstairs, and seeing what those herds were like before we decimated them, to coming in this room and being teleported to space, with an accurate foundation in the science,” Emmart says. “But the art is important, because the art is the way to the soul.”  The museum, he adds, is “a testament to wonder. And I think wonder is a gateway to inspiration, and inspiration is a gateway to motivation.” Three-D visuals aren’t just powerful tools for communicating science, but increasingly crucial for science itself. Software like OpenSpace, an open source simulation tool developed by the museum, along with the growing availability of high-performance computing, are making it easier to build highly detailed visuals of ever larger and more complex collections of data. “Anytime we look, literally, from a different angle at catalogs of astronomical positions, simulations, or exploring the phase space of a complex data set, there is great potential to discover something new,” says Brian R. Kent, an astronomer and director of science communications at National Radio Astronomy Observatory. “There is also a wealth of astronomics tatical data in archives that can be reanalyzed in new ways, leading to new discoveries.” As the instruments grow in size and sophistication, so does the data, and the challenge of understanding it. Like all scientists, astronomers are facing a deluge of data, ranging from gamma rays and X-rays to ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and radio bands. Our Oort cloud, a shell of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system and extends one-and-a-half light years in every direction, is shown in this scene from ‘Encounters in the Milky Way’ along with the Oort clouds of neighboring stars. The more massive the star, the larger its Oort cloud“New facilities like the Next Generation Very Large Array here at NRAO or the Vera Rubin Observatory and LSST survey project will generate large volumes of data, so astronomers have to get creative with how to analyze it,” says Kent.  More data—and new instruments—will also be needed to prove the spiral itself is actually there: there’s still no known way to even observe the Oort cloud.  Instead, the paper notes, the structure will have to be measured from “detection of a large number of objects” in the radius of the inner Oort cloud or from “thermal emission from small particles in the Oort spiral.”  The Vera C. Rubin Observatory, a powerful, U.S.-funded telescope that recently began operation in Chile, could possibly observe individual icy bodies within the cloud. But researchers expect the telescope will likely discover only dozens of these objects, maybe hundreds, not enough to meaningfully visualize any shapes in the Oort cloud.  For us, here and now, the 1.4 trillion mile-long spiral will remain confined to the inside of a dark dome across the street from Central Park. #how #planetarium #show #discovered #spiral
    How a planetarium show discovered a spiral at the edge of our solar system
    www.fastcompany.com
    If you’ve ever flown through outer space, at least while watching a documentary or a science fiction film, you’ve seen how artists turn astronomical findings into stunning visuals. But in the process of visualizing data for their latest planetarium show, a production team at New York’s American Museum of Natural History made a surprising discovery of their own: a trillion-and-a-half mile long spiral of material drifting along the edge of our solar system. “So this is a really fun thing that happened,” says Jackie Faherty, the museum’s senior scientist. Last winter, Faherty and her colleagues were beneath the dome of the museum’s Hayden Planetarium, fine-tuning a scene that featured the Oort cloud, the big, thick bubble surrounding our Sun and planets that’s filled with ice and rock and other remnants from the solar system’s infancy. The Oort cloud begins far beyond Neptune, around one and a half light years from the Sun. It has never been directly observed; its existence is inferred from the behavior of long-period comets entering the inner solar system. The cloud is so expansive that the Voyager spacecraft, our most distant probes, would need another 250 years just to reach its inner boundary; to reach the other side, they would need about 30,000 years.  The 30-minute show, Encounters in the Milky Way, narrated by Pedro Pascal, guides audiences on a trip through the galaxy across billions of years. For a section about our nascent solar system, the writing team decided “there’s going to be a fly-by” of the Oort cloud, Faherty says. “But what does our Oort cloud look like?”  To find out, the museum consulted astronomers and turned to David Nesvorný, a scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio. He provided his model of the millions of particles believed to make up the Oort cloud, based on extensive observational data. “Everybody said, go talk to Nesvorný. He’s got the best model,” says Faherty. And “everybody told us, ‘There’s structure in the model,’ so we were kind of set up to look for stuff,” she says.  The museum’s technical team began using Nesvorný’s model to simulate how the cloud evolved over time. Later, as the team projected versions of the fly-by scene into the dome, with the camera looking back at the Oort cloud, they saw a familiar shape, one that appears in galaxies, Saturn’s rings, and disks around young stars. “We’re flying away from the Oort cloud and out pops this spiral, a spiral shape to the outside of our solar system,” Faherty marveled. “A huge structure, millions and millions of particles.” She emailed Nesvorný to ask for “more particles,” with a render of the scene attached. “We noticed the spiral of course,” she wrote. “And then he writes me back: ‘what are you talking about, a spiral?’”  While fine-tuning a simulation of the Oort cloud, a vast expanse of ice material leftover from the birth of our Sun, the ‘Encounters in the Milky Way’ production team noticed a very clear shape: a structure made of billions of comets and shaped like a spiral-armed galaxy, seen here in a scene from the final Space Show (curving, dusty S-shape behind the Sun) [Image: © AMNH] More simulations ensued, this time on Pleiades, a powerful NASA supercomputer. In high-performance computer simulations spanning 4.6 billion years, starting from the Solar System’s earliest days, the researchers visualized how the initial icy and rocky ingredients of the Oort cloud began circling the Sun, in the elliptical orbits that are thought to give the cloud its rough disc shape. The simulations also incorporated the physics of the Sun’s gravitational pull, the influences from our Milky Way galaxy, and the movements of the comets themselves.  In each simulation, the spiral persisted. “No one has ever seen the Oort structure like that before,” says Faherty. Nesvorný “has a great quote about this: ‘The math was all there. We just needed the visuals.’”  An illustration of the Kuiper Belt and Oort Cloud in relation to our solar system. [Image: NASA] As the Oort cloud grew with the early solar system, Nesvorný and his colleagues hypothesize that the galactic tide, or the gravitational force from the Milky Way, disrupted the orbits of some comets. Although the Sun pulls these objects inward, the galaxy’s gravity appears to have twisted part of the Oort cloud outward, forming a spiral tilted roughly 30 degrees from the plane of the solar system. “As the galactic tide acts to decouple bodies from the scattered disk it creates a spiral structure in physical space that is roughly 15,000 astronomical units in length,” or around 1.4 trillion miles from one end to the other, the researchers write in a paper that was published in March in the Astrophysical Journal. “The spiral is long-lived and persists in the inner Oort Cloud to the present time.” “The physics makes sense,” says Faherty. “Scientists, we’re amazing at what we do, but it doesn’t mean we can see everything right away.” It helped that the team behind the space show was primed to look for something, says Carter Emmart, the museum’s director of astrovisualization and director of Encounters. Astronomers had described Nesvorný’s model as having “a structure,” which intrigued the team’s artists. “We were also looking for structure so that it wouldn’t just be sort of like a big blob,” he says. “Other models were also revealing this—but they just hadn’t been visualized.” The museum’s attempts to simulate nature date back to its first habitat dioramas in the early 1900s, which brought visitors to places that hadn’t yet been captured by color photos, TV, or the web. The planetarium, a night sky simulator for generations of would-be scientists and astronauts, got its start after financier Charles Hayden bought the museum its first Zeiss projector. The planetarium now boasts one of the world’s few Zeiss Mark IX systems. Still, these days the star projector is rarely used, Emmart says, now that fulldome laser projectors can turn the old static starfield into 3D video running at 60 frames per second. The Hayden boasts six custom-built Christie projectors, part of what the museum’s former president called “the most advanced planetarium ever attempted.”  In about 1.3 million years, the star system Gliese 710 is set to pass directly through our Oort Cloud, an event visualized in a dramatic scene in ‘Encounters in the Milky Way.’ During its flyby, our systems will swap icy comets, flinging some out on new paths. [Image: © AMNH] Emmart recalls how in 1998, when he and other museum leaders were imagining the future of space shows at the Hayden—now with the help of digital projectors and computer graphics—there were questions over how much space they could try to show. “We’re talking about these astronomical data sets we could plot to make the galaxy and the stars,” he says. “Of course, we knew that we would have this star projector, but we really wanted to emphasize astrophysics with this dome video system. I was drawing pictures of this just to get our heads around it and noting the tip of the solar system to the Milky Way is about 60 degrees. And I said, what are we gonna do when we get outside the Milky Way?’ “Then [planetarium’s director] Neil Degrasse Tyson “goes, ‘whoa, whoa, whoa, Carter, we have enough to do. And just plotting the Milky Way, that’s hard enough.’ And I said, ‘well, when we exit the Milky Way and we don’t see any other galaxies, that’s sort of like astronomy in 1920—we thought maybe the entire universe is just a Milky Way.'” “And that kind of led to a chaotic discussion about, well, what other data sets are there for this?” Emmart adds. The museum worked with astronomer Brent Tully, who had mapped 3500 galaxies beyond the Milky Way, in collaboration with the National Center for Super Computing Applications. “That was it,” he says, “and that seemed fantastical.” By the time the first planetarium show opened at the museum’s new Rose Center for Earth and Space in 2000, Tully had broadened his survey “to an amazing” 30,000 galaxies. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey followed—it’s now at data release 18—with six million galaxies. To build the map of the universe that underlies Encounters, the team also relied on data from the European Space Agency’s space observatory, Gaia. Launched in 2013 and powered down in March of this year, Gaia brought an unprecedented precision to our astronomical map, plotting the distance between 1.7 billion stars. To visualize and render the simulated data, Jon Parker, the museum’s lead technical director, relied on Houdini, a 3D animation tool by Toronto-based SideFX. The goal is immersion, “whether it’s in front of the buffalo downstairs, and seeing what those herds were like before we decimated them, to coming in this room and being teleported to space, with an accurate foundation in the science,” Emmart says. “But the art is important, because the art is the way to the soul.”  The museum, he adds, is “a testament to wonder. And I think wonder is a gateway to inspiration, and inspiration is a gateway to motivation.” Three-D visuals aren’t just powerful tools for communicating science, but increasingly crucial for science itself. Software like OpenSpace, an open source simulation tool developed by the museum, along with the growing availability of high-performance computing, are making it easier to build highly detailed visuals of ever larger and more complex collections of data. “Anytime we look, literally, from a different angle at catalogs of astronomical positions, simulations, or exploring the phase space of a complex data set, there is great potential to discover something new,” says Brian R. Kent, an astronomer and director of science communications at National Radio Astronomy Observatory. “There is also a wealth of astronomics tatical data in archives that can be reanalyzed in new ways, leading to new discoveries.” As the instruments grow in size and sophistication, so does the data, and the challenge of understanding it. Like all scientists, astronomers are facing a deluge of data, ranging from gamma rays and X-rays to ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and radio bands. Our Oort cloud (center), a shell of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system and extends one-and-a-half light years in every direction, is shown in this scene from ‘Encounters in the Milky Way’ along with the Oort clouds of neighboring stars. The more massive the star, the larger its Oort cloud [Image: © AMNH ] “New facilities like the Next Generation Very Large Array here at NRAO or the Vera Rubin Observatory and LSST survey project will generate large volumes of data, so astronomers have to get creative with how to analyze it,” says Kent.  More data—and new instruments—will also be needed to prove the spiral itself is actually there: there’s still no known way to even observe the Oort cloud.  Instead, the paper notes, the structure will have to be measured from “detection of a large number of objects” in the radius of the inner Oort cloud or from “thermal emission from small particles in the Oort spiral.”  The Vera C. Rubin Observatory, a powerful, U.S.-funded telescope that recently began operation in Chile, could possibly observe individual icy bodies within the cloud. But researchers expect the telescope will likely discover only dozens of these objects, maybe hundreds, not enough to meaningfully visualize any shapes in the Oort cloud.  For us, here and now, the 1.4 trillion mile-long spiral will remain confined to the inside of a dark dome across the street from Central Park.
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  • Character Creation for Production

    ZBrush, Maya, Marvelous Designer & Substance Painter Workflow with Antonio MossuccaLearn the entire process of bringing a character to life from 2D concept to 3D final render. This 8-hour workshop by Antonio Mossucca, a lookdev and character artist for Scanline VFX, Framestore and Axis Studios, shares the culmination of his skills learned throughout his career working at top studios. This workshop is intended for anyone who would like to gain a deeper understanding of how an anthropomorphic character/creature is created, from the initial ideation and reference gathering through to the final render. Foundational knowledge of ZBrush, Maya, Substance Painter, and Arnold is recommended. Antonio kicks off this workshop with a look at his approach to preparing for a 3D character project. He then demonstrates head and creature sculpting in ZBrush, instructs on how to create realistic clothing using Marvelous Designer, and explains how to texture the character using Substance 3D Painter. He then walks through the process of rendering the character in Arnold to create the final images for a portfolio piece.If you are passionate about character and creature art and want to know how to push your skills to the next level, or simply curious and want to learn more about how it’s done, this tutorial will provide essential insights to help you level up your 3D character/creature creation. Antonio provides his ZBrush User Interface and shortcuts as well as his Aces CG LUT files to use in Photoshop, plus the useful scripts he used in XGen and mGear for character rigging.WATCH NOW
    #character #creation #production
    Character Creation for Production
    ZBrush, Maya, Marvelous Designer & Substance Painter Workflow with Antonio MossuccaLearn the entire process of bringing a character to life from 2D concept to 3D final render. This 8-hour workshop by Antonio Mossucca, a lookdev and character artist for Scanline VFX, Framestore and Axis Studios, shares the culmination of his skills learned throughout his career working at top studios. This workshop is intended for anyone who would like to gain a deeper understanding of how an anthropomorphic character/creature is created, from the initial ideation and reference gathering through to the final render. Foundational knowledge of ZBrush, Maya, Substance Painter, and Arnold is recommended. Antonio kicks off this workshop with a look at his approach to preparing for a 3D character project. He then demonstrates head and creature sculpting in ZBrush, instructs on how to create realistic clothing using Marvelous Designer, and explains how to texture the character using Substance 3D Painter. He then walks through the process of rendering the character in Arnold to create the final images for a portfolio piece.If you are passionate about character and creature art and want to know how to push your skills to the next level, or simply curious and want to learn more about how it’s done, this tutorial will provide essential insights to help you level up your 3D character/creature creation. Antonio provides his ZBrush User Interface and shortcuts as well as his Aces CG LUT files to use in Photoshop, plus the useful scripts he used in XGen and mGear for character rigging.WATCH NOW #character #creation #production
    Character Creation for Production
    thegnomonworkshop.com
    ZBrush, Maya, Marvelous Designer & Substance Painter Workflow with Antonio MossuccaLearn the entire process of bringing a character to life from 2D concept to 3D final render. This 8-hour workshop by Antonio Mossucca, a lookdev and character artist for Scanline VFX, Framestore and Axis Studios, shares the culmination of his skills learned throughout his career working at top studios. This workshop is intended for anyone who would like to gain a deeper understanding of how an anthropomorphic character/creature is created, from the initial ideation and reference gathering through to the final render. Foundational knowledge of ZBrush, Maya, Substance Painter, and Arnold is recommended. Antonio kicks off this workshop with a look at his approach to preparing for a 3D character project. He then demonstrates head and creature sculpting in ZBrush, instructs on how to create realistic clothing using Marvelous Designer, and explains how to texture the character using Substance 3D Painter. He then walks through the process of rendering the character in Arnold to create the final images for a portfolio piece.If you are passionate about character and creature art and want to know how to push your skills to the next level, or simply curious and want to learn more about how it’s done, this tutorial will provide essential insights to help you level up your 3D character/creature creation. Antonio provides his ZBrush User Interface and shortcuts as well as his Aces CG LUT files to use in Photoshop, plus the useful scripts he used in XGen and mGear for character rigging.WATCH NOW
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  • On this day: June 5

    June 5: World Environment Day; Day of ArafahAntonio Luna

    1897 – The Ancient Temples and Shrines Preservation Law was passed, instituting the protection of structures and artifacts in Japan designated National Treasures.
    1899 – Antonio Luna, Commanding General of the Philippine Army, was assassinated in the midst of the Philippine–American War.
    1997 – Anticipating a coup attempt, President Pascal Lissouba of the Republic of the Congo ordered the detention of his rival Denis Sassou Nguesso, initiating a second civil war.
    2004 – Noël Mamère, the mayor of Bègles, conducted a marriage ceremony for two men, even though same-sex marriage in France had not yet been legalised.
    2009 – After almost two months of civil disobedience, at least 31 people were killed in clashes between the National Police and indigenous people in Bagua province, Peru.
    Ivy Compton-BurnettTheippan Maung WaElizabeth GlosterMegumi NakajimaMore anniversaries:
    June 4
    June 5
    June 6

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    About
    #this #day #june
    On this day: June 5
    June 5: World Environment Day; Day of ArafahAntonio Luna 1897 – The Ancient Temples and Shrines Preservation Law was passed, instituting the protection of structures and artifacts in Japan designated National Treasures. 1899 – Antonio Luna, Commanding General of the Philippine Army, was assassinated in the midst of the Philippine–American War. 1997 – Anticipating a coup attempt, President Pascal Lissouba of the Republic of the Congo ordered the detention of his rival Denis Sassou Nguesso, initiating a second civil war. 2004 – Noël Mamère, the mayor of Bègles, conducted a marriage ceremony for two men, even though same-sex marriage in France had not yet been legalised. 2009 – After almost two months of civil disobedience, at least 31 people were killed in clashes between the National Police and indigenous people in Bagua province, Peru. Ivy Compton-BurnettTheippan Maung WaElizabeth GlosterMegumi NakajimaMore anniversaries: June 4 June 5 June 6 Archive By email List of days of the year About #this #day #june
    On this day: June 5
    en.wikipedia.org
    June 5: World Environment Day; Day of Arafah (Shia Islam) Antonio Luna 1897 – The Ancient Temples and Shrines Preservation Law was passed, instituting the protection of structures and artifacts in Japan designated National Treasures. 1899 – Antonio Luna (pictured), Commanding General of the Philippine Army, was assassinated in the midst of the Philippine–American War. 1997 – Anticipating a coup attempt, President Pascal Lissouba of the Republic of the Congo ordered the detention of his rival Denis Sassou Nguesso, initiating a second civil war. 2004 – Noël Mamère, the mayor of Bègles, conducted a marriage ceremony for two men, even though same-sex marriage in France had not yet been legalised. 2009 – After almost two months of civil disobedience, at least 31 people were killed in clashes between the National Police and indigenous people in Bagua province, Peru. Ivy Compton-Burnett (b. 1884)Theippan Maung Wa (b. 1899)Elizabeth Gloster (b. 1949)Megumi Nakajima (b. 1989) More anniversaries: June 4 June 5 June 6 Archive By email List of days of the year About
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  • The Download: US climate studies are being shut down, and building cities from lava

    This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.

    The Trump administration has shut down more than 100 climate studies

    The Trump administration has terminated National Science Foundation grants for more than 100 research projects related to climate change, according to an MIT Technology Review analysis of a database that tracks such cuts.

    The move will cut off what’s likely to amount to tens of millions of dollars for studies that were previously approved and, in most cases, already in the works. Many believe the administration’s broader motivation is to undermine the power of the university system and prevent research findings that cut against its politics. Read the full story.

    —James Temple

    This architect wants to build cities out of lava

    Arnhildur Pálmadóttir is an architect with an extraordinary mission: to harness molten lava and build cities out of it.Pálmadóttir believes the lava that flows from a single eruption could yield enough building material to lay the foundations of an entire city. She has been researching this possibility for more than five years as part of a project she calls Lavaforming. Together with her son and colleague Arnar Skarphéðinsson, she has identified three potential techniques that could change how future homes are designed and built from repurposed lava. Read the full story.—Elissaveta M. Brandon

    This story is from the most recent edition of our print magazine, which is all about how technology is changing creativity. Subscribe now to read it and to receive future print copies once they land.

    The must-reads

    I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.

    1 America is failing to win the tech race against ChinaIn fields as diverse as drones and energy.+ Humanoid robots is an area of particular interest.+ China has accused the US of violating the pair’s trade truce.2 Who is really in charge of DOGE?According to a fired staffer, it wasn’t Elon Musk.+ DOGE’s tech takeover threatens the safety and stability of our critical data.3 Brazilians will soon be able to sell their digital dataIt’s the first time citizens will be able to monetize their digital footprint.4 The Trump administration’s anti-vaccine stance is stoking fear among scientistsIt’s slashing funding for mRNA trials, and experts are afraid to speak out.+ This annual shot might protect against HIV infections.5 Tech companies want us to spend longer talking to chatbotsThose conversations can easily veer into dangerous territory.+ How we use AI in the future is up to us.+ This benchmark used Reddit’s AITA to test how much AI models suck up to us.6 Tiktok’s mental health videos are rife with misinformationA lot of the advice is useless at best, and harmful at worst.7 Lawyers are hooked on ChatGPTEven though it’s inherently unreliable.+ Yet another lawyer has been found referencing nonexistent citations.+ How AI is introducing errors into courtrooms.8 How chefs are using generative AI They’re starting to experiment with using it to create innovative new dishes.+ Watch this robot cook shrimp and clean autonomously.9 The influencer suing her rival has dropped her lawsuitThe legal fight over ownership of a basic aesthetic has come to an end.10 Roblox’s new game has sparked a digital fruit underground marketAnd players are already spending millions of dollars every week.Quote of the day

    “We can’t substitute complex thinking with machines. AI can’t replace our curiosity, creativity or emotional intelligence.”

    —Mateusz Demski, a journalist in Poland, tells the Guardian about how his radio station employer laid him off, only to later launch shows fronted by AI-generated presenters.

    One more thing

    ​​Adventures in the genetic time machineAn ancient-DNA revolution is turning the high-speed equipment used to study the DNA of living things on to specimens from the past.The technology is being used to create genetic maps of saber-toothed cats, cave bears, and thousands of ancient humans, including Vikings, Polynesian navigators, and numerous Neanderthals. The total number of ancient humans studied is more than 10,000 and rising fast.The old genes have already revealed remarkable stories of human migrations around the globe.But researchers are hoping ancient DNA will be more than a telescope on the past—they hope it will have concrete practical use in the present. Read the full story. 

    —Antonio Regalado

    We can still have nice things

    A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day.+ The ancient Persians managed to keep cool using an innovative breeze-catching technique that could still be useful today.+ Knowledge is power—here’s a helpful list of hoaxes to be aware of.+ How said it: Homer Simpson or Pete Hegseth?+ I had no idea London has so many cat statues.
    #download #climate #studies #are #being
    The Download: US climate studies are being shut down, and building cities from lava
    This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. The Trump administration has shut down more than 100 climate studies The Trump administration has terminated National Science Foundation grants for more than 100 research projects related to climate change, according to an MIT Technology Review analysis of a database that tracks such cuts. The move will cut off what’s likely to amount to tens of millions of dollars for studies that were previously approved and, in most cases, already in the works. Many believe the administration’s broader motivation is to undermine the power of the university system and prevent research findings that cut against its politics. Read the full story. —James Temple This architect wants to build cities out of lava Arnhildur Pálmadóttir is an architect with an extraordinary mission: to harness molten lava and build cities out of it.Pálmadóttir believes the lava that flows from a single eruption could yield enough building material to lay the foundations of an entire city. She has been researching this possibility for more than five years as part of a project she calls Lavaforming. Together with her son and colleague Arnar Skarphéðinsson, she has identified three potential techniques that could change how future homes are designed and built from repurposed lava. Read the full story.—Elissaveta M. Brandon This story is from the most recent edition of our print magazine, which is all about how technology is changing creativity. Subscribe now to read it and to receive future print copies once they land. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 America is failing to win the tech race against ChinaIn fields as diverse as drones and energy.+ Humanoid robots is an area of particular interest.+ China has accused the US of violating the pair’s trade truce.2 Who is really in charge of DOGE?According to a fired staffer, it wasn’t Elon Musk.+ DOGE’s tech takeover threatens the safety and stability of our critical data.3 Brazilians will soon be able to sell their digital dataIt’s the first time citizens will be able to monetize their digital footprint.4 The Trump administration’s anti-vaccine stance is stoking fear among scientistsIt’s slashing funding for mRNA trials, and experts are afraid to speak out.+ This annual shot might protect against HIV infections.5 Tech companies want us to spend longer talking to chatbotsThose conversations can easily veer into dangerous territory.+ How we use AI in the future is up to us.+ This benchmark used Reddit’s AITA to test how much AI models suck up to us.6 Tiktok’s mental health videos are rife with misinformationA lot of the advice is useless at best, and harmful at worst.7 Lawyers are hooked on ChatGPTEven though it’s inherently unreliable.+ Yet another lawyer has been found referencing nonexistent citations.+ How AI is introducing errors into courtrooms.8 How chefs are using generative AI They’re starting to experiment with using it to create innovative new dishes.+ Watch this robot cook shrimp and clean autonomously.9 The influencer suing her rival has dropped her lawsuitThe legal fight over ownership of a basic aesthetic has come to an end.10 Roblox’s new game has sparked a digital fruit underground marketAnd players are already spending millions of dollars every week.Quote of the day “We can’t substitute complex thinking with machines. AI can’t replace our curiosity, creativity or emotional intelligence.” —Mateusz Demski, a journalist in Poland, tells the Guardian about how his radio station employer laid him off, only to later launch shows fronted by AI-generated presenters. One more thing ​​Adventures in the genetic time machineAn ancient-DNA revolution is turning the high-speed equipment used to study the DNA of living things on to specimens from the past.The technology is being used to create genetic maps of saber-toothed cats, cave bears, and thousands of ancient humans, including Vikings, Polynesian navigators, and numerous Neanderthals. The total number of ancient humans studied is more than 10,000 and rising fast.The old genes have already revealed remarkable stories of human migrations around the globe.But researchers are hoping ancient DNA will be more than a telescope on the past—they hope it will have concrete practical use in the present. Read the full story.  —Antonio Regalado We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day.+ The ancient Persians managed to keep cool using an innovative breeze-catching technique that could still be useful today.+ Knowledge is power—here’s a helpful list of hoaxes to be aware of.+ How said it: Homer Simpson or Pete Hegseth?+ I had no idea London has so many cat statues. #download #climate #studies #are #being
    The Download: US climate studies are being shut down, and building cities from lava
    www.technologyreview.com
    This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology. The Trump administration has shut down more than 100 climate studies The Trump administration has terminated National Science Foundation grants for more than 100 research projects related to climate change, according to an MIT Technology Review analysis of a database that tracks such cuts. The move will cut off what’s likely to amount to tens of millions of dollars for studies that were previously approved and, in most cases, already in the works. Many believe the administration’s broader motivation is to undermine the power of the university system and prevent research findings that cut against its politics. Read the full story. —James Temple This architect wants to build cities out of lava Arnhildur Pálmadóttir is an architect with an extraordinary mission: to harness molten lava and build cities out of it.Pálmadóttir believes the lava that flows from a single eruption could yield enough building material to lay the foundations of an entire city. She has been researching this possibility for more than five years as part of a project she calls Lavaforming. Together with her son and colleague Arnar Skarphéðinsson, she has identified three potential techniques that could change how future homes are designed and built from repurposed lava. Read the full story.—Elissaveta M. Brandon This story is from the most recent edition of our print magazine, which is all about how technology is changing creativity. Subscribe now to read it and to receive future print copies once they land. The must-reads I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology. 1 America is failing to win the tech race against ChinaIn fields as diverse as drones and energy. (WSJ $)+ Humanoid robots is an area of particular interest. (Bloomberg $)+ China has accused the US of violating the pair’s trade truce. (FT $) 2 Who is really in charge of DOGE?According to a fired staffer, it wasn’t Elon Musk. (Wired $)+ DOGE’s tech takeover threatens the safety and stability of our critical data. (MIT Technology Review) 3 Brazilians will soon be able to sell their digital dataIt’s the first time citizens will be able to monetize their digital footprint. (Rest of World) 4 The Trump administration’s anti-vaccine stance is stoking fear among scientistsIt’s slashing funding for mRNA trials, and experts are afraid to speak out. (The Atlantic $)+ This annual shot might protect against HIV infections. (MIT Technology Review) 5 Tech companies want us to spend longer talking to chatbotsThose conversations can easily veer into dangerous territory. (WP $)+ How we use AI in the future is up to us. (New Yorker $)+ This benchmark used Reddit’s AITA to test how much AI models suck up to us. (MIT Technology Review) 6 Tiktok’s mental health videos are rife with misinformationA lot of the advice is useless at best, and harmful at worst. (The Guardian) 7 Lawyers are hooked on ChatGPTEven though it’s inherently unreliable. (The Verge)+ Yet another lawyer has been found referencing nonexistent citations. (The Guardian)+ How AI is introducing errors into courtrooms. (MIT Technology Review) 8 How chefs are using generative AI They’re starting to experiment with using it to create innovative new dishes. (NYT $)+ Watch this robot cook shrimp and clean autonomously. (MIT Technology Review) 9 The influencer suing her rival has dropped her lawsuitThe legal fight over ownership of a basic aesthetic has come to an end. (NBC News) 10 Roblox’s new game has sparked a digital fruit underground marketAnd players are already spending millions of dollars every week. (Bloomberg $) Quote of the day “We can’t substitute complex thinking with machines. AI can’t replace our curiosity, creativity or emotional intelligence.” —Mateusz Demski, a journalist in Poland, tells the Guardian about how his radio station employer laid him off, only to later launch shows fronted by AI-generated presenters. One more thing ​​Adventures in the genetic time machineAn ancient-DNA revolution is turning the high-speed equipment used to study the DNA of living things on to specimens from the past.The technology is being used to create genetic maps of saber-toothed cats, cave bears, and thousands of ancient humans, including Vikings, Polynesian navigators, and numerous Neanderthals. The total number of ancient humans studied is more than 10,000 and rising fast.The old genes have already revealed remarkable stories of human migrations around the globe.But researchers are hoping ancient DNA will be more than a telescope on the past—they hope it will have concrete practical use in the present. Read the full story.  —Antonio Regalado We can still have nice things A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.) + The ancient Persians managed to keep cool using an innovative breeze-catching technique that could still be useful today.+ Knowledge is power—here’s a helpful list of hoaxes to be aware of.+ How said it: Homer Simpson or Pete Hegseth?+ I had no idea London has so many cat statues.
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  • A timeline of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner's relationship

    Ivanka Trump has made it clear that she's done with politics. That hasn't stopped her and husband Jared Kushner from remaining an influential political couple.They have not formally reprised their roles as White House advisors in President Donald Trump's second administration, but they've remained present in Donald Trump's political orbit.While Ivanka Trump opted out of the 2024 campaign trail, she and Kushner still appeared at the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump's victory party on election night, and the inauguration. Kushner also reportedly served as an informal advisor ahead of Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East in May, CNN reported.Ivanka Trump, who is Donald Trump's eldest daughter, converted to Judaism before marrying Kushner in 2009. They have three children: Arabella, Joseph, and Theodore.Here's a timeline of Ivanka Trump and Kushner's relationship.

    2007: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner met at a networking lunch arranged by one of her longtime business partners.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in 2007.

    PAUL LAURIE/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images

    Ivanka Trump and Kushner were both 25 at the time."They very innocently set us up thinking that our only interest in one another would be transactional," Ivanka Trump told Vogue in 2015. "Whenever we see them we're like, 'The best deal we ever made!'"

    2008: Ivanka Trump and Kushner broke up because of religious differences.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in 2008.

    Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images

    Kushner was raised in the modern Orthodox Jewish tradition, and it was important to his family for him to marry someone Jewish. Ivanka Trump's family is Presbyterian.

    2008: Three months later, the couple rekindled their romance on Rupert Murdoch's yacht.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in 2008.

    David X Prutting/Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images

    In his memoir, "Breaking History," Kushner wrote that Murdoch's then-wife, Wendi Murdoch, was a mutual friend who invited them both on the yacht.

    May 2009: They attended the Met Gala together for the first time.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at the Met Gala.

    BILLY FARRELL/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images

    The theme of the Met Gala that year was "The Model As Muse." Ivanka Trump wore a gown by designer Brian Reyes.

    July 2009: Ivanka Trump completed her conversion to Judaism, and she and Kushner got engaged.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in 2009.

    Billy Farrell/Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images

    Kushner proposed with a 5.22-carat cushion-cut diamond engagement ring.Ivanka Trump told New York Magazine that she and her fiancé were "very mellow.""We go to the park. We go biking together. We go to the 2nd Avenue Deli," she said. "We both live in this fancy world. But on a personal level, I don't think I could be with somebody — I know he couldn't be with somebody — who needed to be 'on' all the time."

    October 2009: Ivanka Trump and Kushner married at the Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump on their wedding day.

    Brian Marcus/Fred Marcus Photography via Getty Images

    The couple invited 500 guests, including celebrities like Barbara Walters, Regis Philbin, and Anna Wintour, as well as politicians such as Rudy Giuliani and Andrew Cuomo.

    July 2011: The couple welcomed their first child, Arabella.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner with Arabella Kushner.

    Robin Marchant/Getty Images

    "This morning @jaredkushner and I welcomed a beautiful and healthy little baby girl into the world," Ivanka announced on X, then Twitter. "We feel incredibly grateful and blessed. Thank you all for your support and well wishes!"

    October 2013: Ivanka Trump gave birth to their second child, Joseph.

    Ivanka Trump with Arabella Rose Kushner and Joseph Frederick Kushner in 2017.

    Alo Ceballos/GC Images

    He was named for Kushner's paternal grandfather Joseph and given the middle name Frederick after Donald Trump's father.

    March 2016: Kushner and Ivanka Trump welcomed their third child, Theodore, in the midst of Donald Trump's presidential campaign.

    Ivanka Trump carried her son Theodore as she held hands with Joseph alongside Jared Kushner and daughter Arabella on the White House lawn.

    SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

    "I said, 'Ivanka, it would be great if you had your baby in Iowa.' I really want that to happen. I really want that to happen," Donald Trump told supporters in Iowa in January 2016.All three of the couple's children were born in New York City.

    May 2016: They attended the Met Gala two months after Ivanka Trump gave birth.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump attend the Met Gala.

    Kevin Mazur/WireImage

    Ivanka Trump wore a red Ralph Lauren Collection halter jumpsuit.On a 2017 episode of "The Late Late Show with James Corden," Anna Wintour said that she would never invite Donald Trump to another Met Gala.

    January 2017: Ivanka Trump and Kushner attended Donald Trump's inauguration and danced together at the Liberty Ball.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on Inauguration Day.

    Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

    The Liberty Ball was the first of three inaugural balls that Donald Trump attended.

    January 2017: After the inauguration, Ivanka and Kushner relocated to a million home in the Kalorama section of Washington, DC.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump's house in Washington, DC.

    PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images

    Ivanka Trump and Kushner rented the 7,000-square-foot home from billionaire Andrónico Luksic for a month, The Wall Street Journal reported.

    May 2017: They accompanied Donald Trump on his first overseas trip in office.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump with Pope Francis.

    Vatican Pool - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images

    Kushner and Ivanka Trump both served as advisors to the president. For the first overseas trip of Donald Trump's presidency, they accompanied him to Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Vatican, and summits in Brussels and Sicily.

    October 2019: The couple celebrated their 10th wedding anniversary with a lavish party at Camp David.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner at a state dinner.

    MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images

    All of the Trump and Kushner siblings were in attendance. A White House official told CNN that the couple was covering the cost of the party, but Donald Trump tweeted that the cost would be "totally paid for by me!"

    August 2020: Ivanka Trump spoke about moving their family to Washington, DC, at the Republican National Convention.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at the Republican National Convention.

    SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

    "When Jared and I moved with our three children to Washington, we didn't exactly know what we were in for," she said in her speech. "But our kids loved it from the start."

    December 2020: Ivanka Trump and Kushner reportedly bought a million empty lot in Miami's "Billionaire Bunker."

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump's plot of land in Indian Creek Village.

    The Jills Zeder Group; Samir Hussein/WireImage/Getty Images

    After Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, Page Six reported that the couple purchased a 1.8-acre waterfront lot owned by singer Julio Iglesias, Enrique Iglesias' father, in Indian Creek Village, Florida.The island where it sits has the nickname "Billionaire Bunker" thanks to its multitude of ultra-wealthy residents over the years, including billionaire investor Carl Icahn, supermodel Adriana Lima, and former Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula.

    January 2021: They skipped Joe Biden's inauguration, flying with Donald Trump to his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, instead.

    Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and their children prepared for Donald Trump's departure on Inauguration Day.

    ALEX EDELMAN/AFP via Getty Images

    Donald Trump did not attend Biden's inauguration, breaking a long-standing norm in US democracy. While initial reports said that Ivanka Trump was planning to attend the inauguration, a White House official told People magazine that "Ivanka is not expected to attend the inauguration nor was she ever expected to."

    January 2021: The couple signed a lease for a luxury Miami Beach condo near their Indian Creek Village property.

    Arte Surfside.

    Antonio Citterio Patricia Viel

    Ivanka Trump and Kushner signed a lease for a "large, unfurnished unit" in the amenities-packed Arte Surfside condominium building in Surfside, Florida.Surfside, a beachside town just north of Miami Beach that's home to fewer than 6,000 people, is only a five-minute drive from Indian Creek Island, where they bought their million empty lot.

    April 2021: Ivanka Trump and Kushner reportedly added a million mansion in Indian Creek Village to their Florida real-estate profile.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on a walk in Florida.

    MEGA/GC Images

    The Real Deal reported that Ivanka and Kushner purchased another Indian Creek property — this time, a 8,510-square-foot mansion situated on a 1.3-acre estate.

    June 2021: Several outlets reported that the couple began to distance themselves from Donald Trump due to his fixation on conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.

    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner behind Donald Trump.

    Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

    CNN reported that Trump was prone to complain about the 2020 election and falsely claim it was "stolen" from him to anyone listening and that his "frustrations emerge in fits and starts — more likely when he is discussing his hopeful return to national politics."While Ivanka and Kushner had been living in their Miami Beach condo, not far from Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, they'd visited Trump less and less frequently and were absent from big events at Mar-a-Lago, CNN said.The New York Times also reported that Kushner wanted "to focus on writing his book and establishing a simpler relationship" with the former president.

    October 2021: Ivanka Trump and Kushner visited Israel's parliament for the inaugural event of the Abraham Accords Caucus.

    Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in Israel.

    AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images

    The Abraham Accords, which Kushner helped broker in August 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.During their visit, Ivanka Trump and Kushner met with then-former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and attended an event at the Museum of Tolerance Jerusalem with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

    August 2022: Kushner released his memoir, "Breaking History," in which he wrote about their courtship.

    Jared Kushner.

    John Lamparski/Getty Images for Concordia Summit

    "In addition to being arrestingly beautiful, which I knew before we met, she was warm, funny, and brilliant," he wrote of getting to know Ivanka Trump. "She has a big heart and a tremendous zest for exploring new things."He also wrote that when he told Donald Trump that he was planning a surprise engagement, Trump "picked up the intercom and alerted Ivanka that she should expect an imminent proposal."

    November 2022: Kushner attended Donald Trump's 2024 campaign announcement without Ivanka Trump.

    Kimberly Guilfoyle, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, and Lara Trump at Donald Trump's presidential campaign announcement.

    Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

    Ivanka Trump released a statement explaining her absence from the event."I love my father very much," her statement read. "This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics. While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena."

    July 2024: Ivanka Trump and Kushner made a rare political appearance at the Republican National Convention.

    Donald Trump and Melania Trump onstage with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.

    Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    Ivanka Trump did not campaign for her father or give a speech as she had at past Republican National Conventions, but she and Jared Kushner joined Trump family members onstage after Donald Trump's remarks.

    November 2024: They joined members of the Trump family in Palm Beach, Florida, to celebrate Donald Trump's election victory.
    #timeline #ivanka #trump #jared #kushner039s
    A timeline of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner's relationship
    Ivanka Trump has made it clear that she's done with politics. That hasn't stopped her and husband Jared Kushner from remaining an influential political couple.They have not formally reprised their roles as White House advisors in President Donald Trump's second administration, but they've remained present in Donald Trump's political orbit.While Ivanka Trump opted out of the 2024 campaign trail, she and Kushner still appeared at the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump's victory party on election night, and the inauguration. Kushner also reportedly served as an informal advisor ahead of Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East in May, CNN reported.Ivanka Trump, who is Donald Trump's eldest daughter, converted to Judaism before marrying Kushner in 2009. They have three children: Arabella, Joseph, and Theodore.Here's a timeline of Ivanka Trump and Kushner's relationship. 2007: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner met at a networking lunch arranged by one of her longtime business partners. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in 2007. PAUL LAURIE/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Ivanka Trump and Kushner were both 25 at the time."They very innocently set us up thinking that our only interest in one another would be transactional," Ivanka Trump told Vogue in 2015. "Whenever we see them we're like, 'The best deal we ever made!'" 2008: Ivanka Trump and Kushner broke up because of religious differences. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in 2008. Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Kushner was raised in the modern Orthodox Jewish tradition, and it was important to his family for him to marry someone Jewish. Ivanka Trump's family is Presbyterian. 2008: Three months later, the couple rekindled their romance on Rupert Murdoch's yacht. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in 2008. David X Prutting/Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images In his memoir, "Breaking History," Kushner wrote that Murdoch's then-wife, Wendi Murdoch, was a mutual friend who invited them both on the yacht. May 2009: They attended the Met Gala together for the first time. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at the Met Gala. BILLY FARRELL/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images The theme of the Met Gala that year was "The Model As Muse." Ivanka Trump wore a gown by designer Brian Reyes. July 2009: Ivanka Trump completed her conversion to Judaism, and she and Kushner got engaged. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in 2009. Billy Farrell/Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Kushner proposed with a 5.22-carat cushion-cut diamond engagement ring.Ivanka Trump told New York Magazine that she and her fiancé were "very mellow.""We go to the park. We go biking together. We go to the 2nd Avenue Deli," she said. "We both live in this fancy world. But on a personal level, I don't think I could be with somebody — I know he couldn't be with somebody — who needed to be 'on' all the time." October 2009: Ivanka Trump and Kushner married at the Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump on their wedding day. Brian Marcus/Fred Marcus Photography via Getty Images The couple invited 500 guests, including celebrities like Barbara Walters, Regis Philbin, and Anna Wintour, as well as politicians such as Rudy Giuliani and Andrew Cuomo. July 2011: The couple welcomed their first child, Arabella. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner with Arabella Kushner. Robin Marchant/Getty Images "This morning @jaredkushner and I welcomed a beautiful and healthy little baby girl into the world," Ivanka announced on X, then Twitter. "We feel incredibly grateful and blessed. Thank you all for your support and well wishes!" October 2013: Ivanka Trump gave birth to their second child, Joseph. Ivanka Trump with Arabella Rose Kushner and Joseph Frederick Kushner in 2017. Alo Ceballos/GC Images He was named for Kushner's paternal grandfather Joseph and given the middle name Frederick after Donald Trump's father. March 2016: Kushner and Ivanka Trump welcomed their third child, Theodore, in the midst of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. Ivanka Trump carried her son Theodore as she held hands with Joseph alongside Jared Kushner and daughter Arabella on the White House lawn. SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images "I said, 'Ivanka, it would be great if you had your baby in Iowa.' I really want that to happen. I really want that to happen," Donald Trump told supporters in Iowa in January 2016.All three of the couple's children were born in New York City. May 2016: They attended the Met Gala two months after Ivanka Trump gave birth. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump attend the Met Gala. Kevin Mazur/WireImage Ivanka Trump wore a red Ralph Lauren Collection halter jumpsuit.On a 2017 episode of "The Late Late Show with James Corden," Anna Wintour said that she would never invite Donald Trump to another Met Gala. January 2017: Ivanka Trump and Kushner attended Donald Trump's inauguration and danced together at the Liberty Ball. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on Inauguration Day. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images The Liberty Ball was the first of three inaugural balls that Donald Trump attended. January 2017: After the inauguration, Ivanka and Kushner relocated to a million home in the Kalorama section of Washington, DC. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump's house in Washington, DC. PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images Ivanka Trump and Kushner rented the 7,000-square-foot home from billionaire Andrónico Luksic for a month, The Wall Street Journal reported. May 2017: They accompanied Donald Trump on his first overseas trip in office. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump with Pope Francis. Vatican Pool - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images Kushner and Ivanka Trump both served as advisors to the president. For the first overseas trip of Donald Trump's presidency, they accompanied him to Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Vatican, and summits in Brussels and Sicily. October 2019: The couple celebrated their 10th wedding anniversary with a lavish party at Camp David. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner at a state dinner. MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images All of the Trump and Kushner siblings were in attendance. A White House official told CNN that the couple was covering the cost of the party, but Donald Trump tweeted that the cost would be "totally paid for by me!" August 2020: Ivanka Trump spoke about moving their family to Washington, DC, at the Republican National Convention. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at the Republican National Convention. SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images "When Jared and I moved with our three children to Washington, we didn't exactly know what we were in for," she said in her speech. "But our kids loved it from the start." December 2020: Ivanka Trump and Kushner reportedly bought a million empty lot in Miami's "Billionaire Bunker." Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump's plot of land in Indian Creek Village. The Jills Zeder Group; Samir Hussein/WireImage/Getty Images After Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, Page Six reported that the couple purchased a 1.8-acre waterfront lot owned by singer Julio Iglesias, Enrique Iglesias' father, in Indian Creek Village, Florida.The island where it sits has the nickname "Billionaire Bunker" thanks to its multitude of ultra-wealthy residents over the years, including billionaire investor Carl Icahn, supermodel Adriana Lima, and former Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula. January 2021: They skipped Joe Biden's inauguration, flying with Donald Trump to his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, instead. Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and their children prepared for Donald Trump's departure on Inauguration Day. ALEX EDELMAN/AFP via Getty Images Donald Trump did not attend Biden's inauguration, breaking a long-standing norm in US democracy. While initial reports said that Ivanka Trump was planning to attend the inauguration, a White House official told People magazine that "Ivanka is not expected to attend the inauguration nor was she ever expected to." January 2021: The couple signed a lease for a luxury Miami Beach condo near their Indian Creek Village property. Arte Surfside. Antonio Citterio Patricia Viel Ivanka Trump and Kushner signed a lease for a "large, unfurnished unit" in the amenities-packed Arte Surfside condominium building in Surfside, Florida.Surfside, a beachside town just north of Miami Beach that's home to fewer than 6,000 people, is only a five-minute drive from Indian Creek Island, where they bought their million empty lot. April 2021: Ivanka Trump and Kushner reportedly added a million mansion in Indian Creek Village to their Florida real-estate profile. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on a walk in Florida. MEGA/GC Images The Real Deal reported that Ivanka and Kushner purchased another Indian Creek property — this time, a 8,510-square-foot mansion situated on a 1.3-acre estate. June 2021: Several outlets reported that the couple began to distance themselves from Donald Trump due to his fixation on conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner behind Donald Trump. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters CNN reported that Trump was prone to complain about the 2020 election and falsely claim it was "stolen" from him to anyone listening and that his "frustrations emerge in fits and starts — more likely when he is discussing his hopeful return to national politics."While Ivanka and Kushner had been living in their Miami Beach condo, not far from Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, they'd visited Trump less and less frequently and were absent from big events at Mar-a-Lago, CNN said.The New York Times also reported that Kushner wanted "to focus on writing his book and establishing a simpler relationship" with the former president. October 2021: Ivanka Trump and Kushner visited Israel's parliament for the inaugural event of the Abraham Accords Caucus. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in Israel. AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images The Abraham Accords, which Kushner helped broker in August 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.During their visit, Ivanka Trump and Kushner met with then-former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and attended an event at the Museum of Tolerance Jerusalem with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. August 2022: Kushner released his memoir, "Breaking History," in which he wrote about their courtship. Jared Kushner. John Lamparski/Getty Images for Concordia Summit "In addition to being arrestingly beautiful, which I knew before we met, she was warm, funny, and brilliant," he wrote of getting to know Ivanka Trump. "She has a big heart and a tremendous zest for exploring new things."He also wrote that when he told Donald Trump that he was planning a surprise engagement, Trump "picked up the intercom and alerted Ivanka that she should expect an imminent proposal." November 2022: Kushner attended Donald Trump's 2024 campaign announcement without Ivanka Trump. Kimberly Guilfoyle, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, and Lara Trump at Donald Trump's presidential campaign announcement. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Ivanka Trump released a statement explaining her absence from the event."I love my father very much," her statement read. "This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics. While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena." July 2024: Ivanka Trump and Kushner made a rare political appearance at the Republican National Convention. Donald Trump and Melania Trump onstage with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Ivanka Trump did not campaign for her father or give a speech as she had at past Republican National Conventions, but she and Jared Kushner joined Trump family members onstage after Donald Trump's remarks. November 2024: They joined members of the Trump family in Palm Beach, Florida, to celebrate Donald Trump's election victory. #timeline #ivanka #trump #jared #kushner039s
    A timeline of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner's relationship
    www.businessinsider.com
    Ivanka Trump has made it clear that she's done with politics. That hasn't stopped her and husband Jared Kushner from remaining an influential political couple.They have not formally reprised their roles as White House advisors in President Donald Trump's second administration, but they've remained present in Donald Trump's political orbit.While Ivanka Trump opted out of the 2024 campaign trail, she and Kushner still appeared at the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump's victory party on election night, and the inauguration. Kushner also reportedly served as an informal advisor ahead of Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East in May, CNN reported.Ivanka Trump, who is Donald Trump's eldest daughter, converted to Judaism before marrying Kushner in 2009. They have three children: Arabella, Joseph, and Theodore.Here's a timeline of Ivanka Trump and Kushner's relationship. 2007: Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner met at a networking lunch arranged by one of her longtime business partners. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in 2007. PAUL LAURIE/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Ivanka Trump and Kushner were both 25 at the time."They very innocently set us up thinking that our only interest in one another would be transactional," Ivanka Trump told Vogue in 2015. "Whenever we see them we're like, 'The best deal we ever made!'" 2008: Ivanka Trump and Kushner broke up because of religious differences. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in 2008. Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Kushner was raised in the modern Orthodox Jewish tradition, and it was important to his family for him to marry someone Jewish. Ivanka Trump's family is Presbyterian. 2008: Three months later, the couple rekindled their romance on Rupert Murdoch's yacht. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner in 2008. David X Prutting/Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images In his memoir, "Breaking History," Kushner wrote that Murdoch's then-wife, Wendi Murdoch, was a mutual friend who invited them both on the yacht. May 2009: They attended the Met Gala together for the first time. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at the Met Gala. BILLY FARRELL/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images The theme of the Met Gala that year was "The Model As Muse." Ivanka Trump wore a gown by designer Brian Reyes. July 2009: Ivanka Trump completed her conversion to Judaism, and she and Kushner got engaged. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in 2009. Billy Farrell/Patrick McMullan/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images Kushner proposed with a 5.22-carat cushion-cut diamond engagement ring.Ivanka Trump told New York Magazine that she and her fiancé were "very mellow.""We go to the park. We go biking together. We go to the 2nd Avenue Deli," she said. "We both live in this fancy world. But on a personal level, I don't think I could be with somebody — I know he couldn't be with somebody — who needed to be 'on' all the time." October 2009: Ivanka Trump and Kushner married at the Trump National Golf Club in New Jersey. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump on their wedding day. Brian Marcus/Fred Marcus Photography via Getty Images The couple invited 500 guests, including celebrities like Barbara Walters, Regis Philbin, and Anna Wintour, as well as politicians such as Rudy Giuliani and Andrew Cuomo. July 2011: The couple welcomed their first child, Arabella. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner with Arabella Kushner. Robin Marchant/Getty Images "This morning @jaredkushner and I welcomed a beautiful and healthy little baby girl into the world," Ivanka announced on X, then Twitter. "We feel incredibly grateful and blessed. Thank you all for your support and well wishes!" October 2013: Ivanka Trump gave birth to their second child, Joseph. Ivanka Trump with Arabella Rose Kushner and Joseph Frederick Kushner in 2017. Alo Ceballos/GC Images He was named for Kushner's paternal grandfather Joseph and given the middle name Frederick after Donald Trump's father. March 2016: Kushner and Ivanka Trump welcomed their third child, Theodore, in the midst of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. Ivanka Trump carried her son Theodore as she held hands with Joseph alongside Jared Kushner and daughter Arabella on the White House lawn. SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images "I said, 'Ivanka, it would be great if you had your baby in Iowa.' I really want that to happen. I really want that to happen," Donald Trump told supporters in Iowa in January 2016.All three of the couple's children were born in New York City. May 2016: They attended the Met Gala two months after Ivanka Trump gave birth. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump attend the Met Gala. Kevin Mazur/WireImage Ivanka Trump wore a red Ralph Lauren Collection halter jumpsuit.On a 2017 episode of "The Late Late Show with James Corden," Anna Wintour said that she would never invite Donald Trump to another Met Gala. January 2017: Ivanka Trump and Kushner attended Donald Trump's inauguration and danced together at the Liberty Ball. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on Inauguration Day. Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images The Liberty Ball was the first of three inaugural balls that Donald Trump attended. January 2017: After the inauguration, Ivanka and Kushner relocated to a $5.5 million home in the Kalorama section of Washington, DC. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump's house in Washington, DC. PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP via Getty Images Ivanka Trump and Kushner rented the 7,000-square-foot home from billionaire Andrónico Luksic for $15,000 a month, The Wall Street Journal reported. May 2017: They accompanied Donald Trump on his first overseas trip in office. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump with Pope Francis. Vatican Pool - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images Kushner and Ivanka Trump both served as advisors to the president. For the first overseas trip of Donald Trump's presidency, they accompanied him to Saudi Arabia, Israel, the Vatican, and summits in Brussels and Sicily. October 2019: The couple celebrated their 10th wedding anniversary with a lavish party at Camp David. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner at a state dinner. MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images All of the Trump and Kushner siblings were in attendance. A White House official told CNN that the couple was covering the cost of the party, but Donald Trump tweeted that the cost would be "totally paid for by me!" August 2020: Ivanka Trump spoke about moving their family to Washington, DC, at the Republican National Convention. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at the Republican National Convention. SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images "When Jared and I moved with our three children to Washington, we didn't exactly know what we were in for," she said in her speech. "But our kids loved it from the start." December 2020: Ivanka Trump and Kushner reportedly bought a $32 million empty lot in Miami's "Billionaire Bunker." Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump's plot of land in Indian Creek Village. The Jills Zeder Group; Samir Hussein/WireImage/Getty Images After Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, Page Six reported that the couple purchased a 1.8-acre waterfront lot owned by singer Julio Iglesias, Enrique Iglesias' father, in Indian Creek Village, Florida.The island where it sits has the nickname "Billionaire Bunker" thanks to its multitude of ultra-wealthy residents over the years, including billionaire investor Carl Icahn, supermodel Adriana Lima, and former Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula. January 2021: They skipped Joe Biden's inauguration, flying with Donald Trump to his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, instead. Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, and their children prepared for Donald Trump's departure on Inauguration Day. ALEX EDELMAN/AFP via Getty Images Donald Trump did not attend Biden's inauguration, breaking a long-standing norm in US democracy. While initial reports said that Ivanka Trump was planning to attend the inauguration, a White House official told People magazine that "Ivanka is not expected to attend the inauguration nor was she ever expected to." January 2021: The couple signed a lease for a luxury Miami Beach condo near their Indian Creek Village property. Arte Surfside. Antonio Citterio Patricia Viel Ivanka Trump and Kushner signed a lease for a "large, unfurnished unit" in the amenities-packed Arte Surfside condominium building in Surfside, Florida.Surfside, a beachside town just north of Miami Beach that's home to fewer than 6,000 people, is only a five-minute drive from Indian Creek Island, where they bought their $32 million empty lot. April 2021: Ivanka Trump and Kushner reportedly added a $24 million mansion in Indian Creek Village to their Florida real-estate profile. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner on a walk in Florida. MEGA/GC Images The Real Deal reported that Ivanka and Kushner purchased another Indian Creek property — this time, a 8,510-square-foot mansion situated on a 1.3-acre estate. June 2021: Several outlets reported that the couple began to distance themselves from Donald Trump due to his fixation on conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner behind Donald Trump. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters CNN reported that Trump was prone to complain about the 2020 election and falsely claim it was "stolen" from him to anyone listening and that his "frustrations emerge in fits and starts — more likely when he is discussing his hopeful return to national politics."While Ivanka and Kushner had been living in their Miami Beach condo, not far from Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, they'd visited Trump less and less frequently and were absent from big events at Mar-a-Lago, CNN said.The New York Times also reported that Kushner wanted "to focus on writing his book and establishing a simpler relationship" with the former president. October 2021: Ivanka Trump and Kushner visited Israel's parliament for the inaugural event of the Abraham Accords Caucus. Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in Israel. AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP via Getty Images The Abraham Accords, which Kushner helped broker in August 2020, normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.During their visit, Ivanka Trump and Kushner met with then-former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and attended an event at the Museum of Tolerance Jerusalem with former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. August 2022: Kushner released his memoir, "Breaking History," in which he wrote about their courtship. Jared Kushner. John Lamparski/Getty Images for Concordia Summit "In addition to being arrestingly beautiful, which I knew before we met, she was warm, funny, and brilliant," he wrote of getting to know Ivanka Trump. "She has a big heart and a tremendous zest for exploring new things."He also wrote that when he told Donald Trump that he was planning a surprise engagement, Trump "picked up the intercom and alerted Ivanka that she should expect an imminent proposal." November 2022: Kushner attended Donald Trump's 2024 campaign announcement without Ivanka Trump. Kimberly Guilfoyle, Jared Kushner, Eric Trump, and Lara Trump at Donald Trump's presidential campaign announcement. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Ivanka Trump released a statement explaining her absence from the event."I love my father very much," her statement read. "This time around, I am choosing to prioritize my children and the private life we are creating as a family. I do not plan to be involved in politics. While I will always love and support my father, going forward I will do so outside the political arena." July 2024: Ivanka Trump and Kushner made a rare political appearance at the Republican National Convention. Donald Trump and Melania Trump onstage with Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. Jason Armond/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images Ivanka Trump did not campaign for her father or give a speech as she had at past Republican National Conventions, but she and Jared Kushner joined Trump family members onstage after Donald Trump's remarks. November 2024: They joined members of the Trump family in Palm Beach, Florida, to celebrate Donald Trump's election victory.
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  • Texas is headed for a drought—but lawmakers won’t do the one thing necessary to save its water supply

    LUBBOCK — Every winter, after the sea of cotton has been harvested in the South Plains and the ground looks barren, technicians with the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District check the water levels in nearly 75,000 wells across 16 counties.

    For years, their measurements have shown what farmers and water conservationists fear most—the Ogallala Aquifer, an underground water source that’s the lifeblood of the South Plains agriculture industry, is running dry.

    That’s because of a century-old law called the rule of capture.

    The rule is simple: If you own the land above an aquifer in Texas, the water underneath is yours. You can use as much as you want, as long as it’s not wasted or taken maliciously. The same applies to your neighbor. If they happen to use more water than you, then that’s just bad luck.

    To put it another way, landowners can mostly pump as much water as they choose without facing liability to surrounding landowners whose wells might be depleted as a result.

    Following the Dust Bowl—and to stave off catastrophe—state lawmakers created groundwater conservation districts in 1949 to protect what water is left. But their power to restrict landowners is limited.

    “The mission is to save as much water possible for as long as possible, with as little impact on private property rights as possible,” said Jason Coleman, manager for the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District. “How do you do that? It’s a difficult task.”

    A 1953 map of the wells in Lubbock County hangs in the office of the groundwater district.Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. Texas does not have enough water to meet demand if the state is stricken with a historic drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board, the state agency that manages Texas’ water supply.

    Lawmakers want to invest in every corner to save the state’s water. This week, they reached a historic billion deal on water projects.

    High Plains Underground Water District General Manager Jason Coleman stands in the district’s meeting room on May 21 in Lubbock.But no one wants to touch the rule of capture. In a state known for rugged individualism, politically speaking, reforming the law is tantamount to stripping away freedoms.

    “There probably are opportunities to vest groundwater districts with additional authority,” said Amy Hardberger, director for the Texas Tech University Center for Water Law and Policy. “I don’t think the political climate is going to do that.”

    State Sen. Charles Perry, a Lubbock Republican, and Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican, led the effort on water in Austin this year. Neither responded to requests for comment.

    Carlos Rubinstein, a water expert with consulting firm RSAH2O and a former chairman of the water development board, said the rule has been relied upon so long that it would be near impossible to undo the law.

    “I think it’s better to spend time working within the rules,” Rubinstein said. “And respect the rule of capture, yet also recognize that, in and of itself, it causes problems.”

    Even though groundwater districts were created to regulate groundwater, the law effectively stops them from doing so, or they risk major lawsuits. The state water plan, which spells out how the state’s water is to be used, acknowledges the shortfall. Groundwater availability is expected to decline by 25% by 2070, mostly due to reduced supply in the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. Together, the aquifers stretch across West Texas and up through the Panhandle.

    By itself, the Ogallala has an estimated three trillion gallons of water. Though the overwhelming majority in Texas is used by farmers. It’s expected to face a 50% decline by 2070.

    Groundwater is 54% of the state’s total water supply and is the state’s most vulnerable natural resource. It’s created by rainfall and other precipitation, and seeps into the ground. Like surface water, groundwater is heavily affected by ongoing droughts and prolonged heat waves. However, the state has more say in regulating surface water than it does groundwater. Surface water laws have provisions that cut supply to newer users in a drought and prohibit transferring surface water outside of basins.

    Historically, groundwater has been used by agriculture in the High Plains. However, as surface water evaporates at a quicker clip, cities and businesses are increasingly interested in tapping the underground resource. As Texas’ population continues to grow and surface water declines, groundwater will be the prize in future fights for water.

    In many ways, the damage is done in the High Plains, a region that spans from the top of the Panhandle down past Lubbock. The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath the region, and it’s faced depletion to the point of no return, according to experts. Simply put: The Ogallala is not refilling to keep up with demand.

    “It’s a creeping disaster,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment. “It isn’t like you wake up tomorrow and nobody can pump anymore. It’s just happening slowly, every year.”Groundwater districts and the law

    The High Plains Water District was the first groundwater district created in Texas.

    Over a protracted multi-year fight, the Legislature created these new local government bodies in 1949, with voter approval, enshrining the new stewards of groundwater into the state Constitution.

    If the lawmakers hoped to embolden local officials to manage the troves of water under the soil, they failed. There are areas with groundwater that don’t have conservation districts. Each groundwater districts has different powers. In practice, most water districts permit wells and make decisions on spacing and location to meet the needs of the property owner.

    The one thing all groundwater districts have in common: They stop short of telling landowners they can’t pump water.

    In the seven decades since groundwater districts were created, a series of lawsuits have effectively strangled groundwater districts. Even as water levels decline from use and drought, districts still get regular requests for new wells. They won’t say no out of fear of litigation.

    The field technician coverage area is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office at the High Plains Underground Water District. Bibbs is a permit assistant for the district.“You have a host of different decisions to make as it pertains to management of groundwater,” Coleman said. “That list has grown over the years.”

    The possibility of lawsuits makes groundwater districts hesitant to regulate usage or put limitations on new well permits. Groundwater districts have to defend themselves in lawsuits, and most lack the resources to do so.

    A well spacing guide is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office.“The law works against us in that way,” Hardberger, with Texas Tech University, said. “It means one large tool in our toolbox, regulation, is limited.”

    The most recent example is a lawsuit between the Braggs Farm and the Edwards Aquifer Authority. The farm requested permits for two pecan orchards in Medina County, outside San Antonio. The authority granted only one and limited how much water could be used based on state law.

    It wasn’t an arbitrary decision. The authority said it followed the statute set by the Legislature to determine the permit.

    “That’s all they were guaranteed,” said Gregory Ellis, the first general manager of the authority, referring to the water available to the farm.

    The Braggs family filed a takings lawsuit against the authority. This kind of claim can be filed when any level of government—including groundwater districts—takes private property for public use without paying for the owner’s losses.

    Braggs won. It is the only successful water-related takings claim in Texas, and it made groundwater laws murkier. It cost the authority million.

    “I think it should have been paid by the state Legislature,” Ellis said. “They’re the ones who designed that permitting system. But that didn’t happen.”

    An appeals court upheld the ruling in 2013, and the Texas Supreme Court denied petitions to consider appeals. However, the state’s supreme court has previously suggested the Legislature could enhance the powers of the groundwater districts and regulate groundwater like surface water, just as many other states have done.

    While the laws are complicated, Ellis said the fundamental rule of capture has benefits. It has saved Texas’ legal system from a flurry of lawsuits between well owners.

    “If they had said ‘Yes, you can sue your neighbor for damaging your well,’ where does it stop?” Ellis asked. “Everybody sues everybody.”

    Coleman, the High Plains district’s manager, said some people want groundwater districts to have more power, while others think they have too much. Well owners want restrictions for others, but not on them, he said.

    “You’re charged as a district with trying to apply things uniformly and fairly,” Coleman said.

    Can’t reverse the past

    Two tractors were dropping seeds around Walt Hagood’s farm as he turned on his irrigation system for the first time this year. He didn’t plan on using much water. It’s too precious.

    The cotton farm stretches across 2,350 acres on the outskirts of Wolfforth, a town 12 miles southwest of Lubbock. Hagood irrigates about 80 acres of land, and prays that rain takes care of the rest.

    Walt Hagood drives across his farm on May 12, in Wolfforth. Hagood utilizes “dry farming,” a technique that relies on natural rainfall.“We used to have a lot of irrigated land with adequate water to make a crop,” Hagood said. “We don’t have that anymore.”

    The High Plains is home to cotton and cattle, multi-billion-dollar agricultural industries. The success is in large part due to the Ogallala. Since its discovery, the aquifer has helped farms around the region spring up through irrigation, a way for farmers to water their crops instead of waiting for rain that may not come. But as water in the aquifer declines, there are growing concerns that there won’t be enough water to support agriculture in the future.

    At the peak of irrigation development, more than 8.5 million acres were irrigated in Texas. About 65% of that was in the High Plains. In the decades since the irrigation boom, High Plains farmers have resorted to methods that might save water and keep their livelihoods afloat. They’ve changed their irrigation systems so water is used more efficiently. They grow cover crops so their soil is more likely to soak up rainwater. Some use apps to see where water is needed so it’s not wasted.

    A furrow irrigation is seen at Walt Hagood’s cotton farm.Farmers who have not changed their irrigation systems might not have a choice in the near future. It can take a week to pump an inch of water in some areas from the aquifer because of how little water is left. As conditions change underground, they are forced to drill deeper for water. That causes additional problems. Calcium can build up, and the water is of poorer quality. And when the water is used to spray crops through a pivot irrigation system, it’s more of a humidifier as water quickly evaporates in the heat.

    According to the groundwater district’s most recent management plan, 2 million acres in the district use groundwater for irrigation. About 95% of water from the Ogallala is used for irrigated agriculture. The plan states that the irrigated farms “afford economic stability to the area and support a number of other industries.”

    The state water plan shows groundwater supply is expected to decline, and drought won’t be the only factor causing a shortage. Demand for municipal use outweighs irrigation use, reflecting the state’s future growth. In Region O, which is the South Plains, water for irrigation declines by 2070 while demand for municipal use rises because of population growth in the region.

    Coleman, with the High Plains groundwater district, often thinks about how the aquifer will hold up with future growth. There are some factors at play with water planning that are nearly impossible to predict and account for, Coleman said. Declining surface water could make groundwater a source for municipalities that didn’t depend on it before. Regions known for having big, open patches of land, like the High Plains, could be attractive to incoming businesses. People could move to the country and want to drill a well, with no understanding of water availability.

    The state will continue to grow, Coleman said, and all the incoming businesses and industries will undoubtedly need water.

    “We could say ‘Well, it’s no one’s fault. We didn’t know that factory would need 20,000 acre-feet of water a year,” Coleman said. “It’s not happening right now, but what’s around the corner?”

    Coleman said this puts agriculture in a tenuous position. The region is full of small towns that depend on agriculture and have supporting businesses, like cotton gins, equipment and feed stores, and pesticide and fertilizer sprayers. This puts pressure on the High Plains water district, along with the two regional water planning groups in the region, to keep agriculture alive.

    “Districts are not trying to reduce pumping down to a sustainable level,” said Mace with the Meadows Foundation. “And I don’t fault them for that, because doing that is economic devastation in a region with farmers.”

    Hagood, the cotton farmer, doesn’t think reforming groundwater rights is the way to solve it. What’s done is done, he said.

    “Our U.S. Constitution protects our private property rights, and that’s what this is all about,” Hagood said. “Any time we have a regulation and people are given more authority, it doesn’t work out right for everybody.”

    Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply.What can be done

    The state water plan recommends irrigation conservation as a strategy. It’s also the least costly water management method.

    But that strategy is fraught. Farmers need to irrigate in times of drought, and telling them to stop can draw criticism.

    In Eastern New Mexico, the Ogallala Land and Water Conservancy, a nonprofit organization, has been retiring irrigation wells. Landowners keep their water rights, and the organization pays them to stop irrigating their farms. Landowners get paid every year as part of the voluntary agreement, and they can end it at any point.

    Ladona Clayton, executive director of the organization, said they have been criticized, with their efforts being called a “war” and “land grab.” They also get pushback on why the responsibility falls on farmers. She said it’s because of how much water is used for irrigation. They have to be aggressive in their approach, she said. The aquifer supplies water to the Cannon Air Force Base.

    “We don’t want them to stop agricultural production,” Clayton said. “But for me to say it will be the same level that irrigation can support would be untrue.”

    There is another possible lifeline that people in the High Plains are eyeing as a solution: the Dockum Aquifer. It’s a minor aquifer that underlies part of the Ogallala, so it would be accessible to farmers and ranchers in the region. The High Plains Water District also oversees this aquifer.

    If it seems too good to be true—that the most irrigated part of Texas would just so happen to have another abundant supply of water flowing underneath—it’s because there’s a catch. The Dockum is full of extremely salty brackish water. Some counties can use the water for irrigation and drinking water without treatment, but it’s unusable in others. According to the groundwater district, a test well in Lubbock County pulled up water that was as salty as seawater.

    Rubinstein, the former water development board chairman, said there are pockets of brackish groundwater in Texas that haven’t been tapped yet. It would be enough to meet the needs on the horizon, but it would also be very expensive to obtain and use. A landowner would have to go deeper to get it, then pump the water over a longer distance.

    “That costs money, and then you have to treat it on top of that,” Rubinstein said. “But, it is water.”

    Landowners have expressed interest in using desalination, a treatment method to lower dissolved salt levels. Desalination of produced and brackish water is one of the ideas that was being floated around at the Legislature this year, along with building a pipeline to move water across the state. Hagood, the farmer, is skeptical. He thinks whatever water they move could get used up before it makes it all the way to West Texas.

    There is always brackish groundwater. Another aquifer brings the chance of history repeating—if the Dockum aquifer is treated so its water is usable, will people drain it, too?

    Hagood said there would have to be limits.

    Disclosure: Edwards Aquifer Authority and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

    This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.
    #texas #headed #droughtbut #lawmakers #wont
    Texas is headed for a drought—but lawmakers won’t do the one thing necessary to save its water supply
    LUBBOCK — Every winter, after the sea of cotton has been harvested in the South Plains and the ground looks barren, technicians with the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District check the water levels in nearly 75,000 wells across 16 counties. For years, their measurements have shown what farmers and water conservationists fear most—the Ogallala Aquifer, an underground water source that’s the lifeblood of the South Plains agriculture industry, is running dry. That’s because of a century-old law called the rule of capture. The rule is simple: If you own the land above an aquifer in Texas, the water underneath is yours. You can use as much as you want, as long as it’s not wasted or taken maliciously. The same applies to your neighbor. If they happen to use more water than you, then that’s just bad luck. To put it another way, landowners can mostly pump as much water as they choose without facing liability to surrounding landowners whose wells might be depleted as a result. Following the Dust Bowl—and to stave off catastrophe—state lawmakers created groundwater conservation districts in 1949 to protect what water is left. But their power to restrict landowners is limited. “The mission is to save as much water possible for as long as possible, with as little impact on private property rights as possible,” said Jason Coleman, manager for the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District. “How do you do that? It’s a difficult task.” A 1953 map of the wells in Lubbock County hangs in the office of the groundwater district.Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. Texas does not have enough water to meet demand if the state is stricken with a historic drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board, the state agency that manages Texas’ water supply. Lawmakers want to invest in every corner to save the state’s water. This week, they reached a historic billion deal on water projects. High Plains Underground Water District General Manager Jason Coleman stands in the district’s meeting room on May 21 in Lubbock.But no one wants to touch the rule of capture. In a state known for rugged individualism, politically speaking, reforming the law is tantamount to stripping away freedoms. “There probably are opportunities to vest groundwater districts with additional authority,” said Amy Hardberger, director for the Texas Tech University Center for Water Law and Policy. “I don’t think the political climate is going to do that.” State Sen. Charles Perry, a Lubbock Republican, and Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican, led the effort on water in Austin this year. Neither responded to requests for comment. Carlos Rubinstein, a water expert with consulting firm RSAH2O and a former chairman of the water development board, said the rule has been relied upon so long that it would be near impossible to undo the law. “I think it’s better to spend time working within the rules,” Rubinstein said. “And respect the rule of capture, yet also recognize that, in and of itself, it causes problems.” Even though groundwater districts were created to regulate groundwater, the law effectively stops them from doing so, or they risk major lawsuits. The state water plan, which spells out how the state’s water is to be used, acknowledges the shortfall. Groundwater availability is expected to decline by 25% by 2070, mostly due to reduced supply in the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. Together, the aquifers stretch across West Texas and up through the Panhandle. By itself, the Ogallala has an estimated three trillion gallons of water. Though the overwhelming majority in Texas is used by farmers. It’s expected to face a 50% decline by 2070. Groundwater is 54% of the state’s total water supply and is the state’s most vulnerable natural resource. It’s created by rainfall and other precipitation, and seeps into the ground. Like surface water, groundwater is heavily affected by ongoing droughts and prolonged heat waves. However, the state has more say in regulating surface water than it does groundwater. Surface water laws have provisions that cut supply to newer users in a drought and prohibit transferring surface water outside of basins. Historically, groundwater has been used by agriculture in the High Plains. However, as surface water evaporates at a quicker clip, cities and businesses are increasingly interested in tapping the underground resource. As Texas’ population continues to grow and surface water declines, groundwater will be the prize in future fights for water. In many ways, the damage is done in the High Plains, a region that spans from the top of the Panhandle down past Lubbock. The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath the region, and it’s faced depletion to the point of no return, according to experts. Simply put: The Ogallala is not refilling to keep up with demand. “It’s a creeping disaster,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment. “It isn’t like you wake up tomorrow and nobody can pump anymore. It’s just happening slowly, every year.”Groundwater districts and the law The High Plains Water District was the first groundwater district created in Texas. Over a protracted multi-year fight, the Legislature created these new local government bodies in 1949, with voter approval, enshrining the new stewards of groundwater into the state Constitution. If the lawmakers hoped to embolden local officials to manage the troves of water under the soil, they failed. There are areas with groundwater that don’t have conservation districts. Each groundwater districts has different powers. In practice, most water districts permit wells and make decisions on spacing and location to meet the needs of the property owner. The one thing all groundwater districts have in common: They stop short of telling landowners they can’t pump water. In the seven decades since groundwater districts were created, a series of lawsuits have effectively strangled groundwater districts. Even as water levels decline from use and drought, districts still get regular requests for new wells. They won’t say no out of fear of litigation. The field technician coverage area is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office at the High Plains Underground Water District. Bibbs is a permit assistant for the district.“You have a host of different decisions to make as it pertains to management of groundwater,” Coleman said. “That list has grown over the years.” The possibility of lawsuits makes groundwater districts hesitant to regulate usage or put limitations on new well permits. Groundwater districts have to defend themselves in lawsuits, and most lack the resources to do so. A well spacing guide is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office.“The law works against us in that way,” Hardberger, with Texas Tech University, said. “It means one large tool in our toolbox, regulation, is limited.” The most recent example is a lawsuit between the Braggs Farm and the Edwards Aquifer Authority. The farm requested permits for two pecan orchards in Medina County, outside San Antonio. The authority granted only one and limited how much water could be used based on state law. It wasn’t an arbitrary decision. The authority said it followed the statute set by the Legislature to determine the permit. “That’s all they were guaranteed,” said Gregory Ellis, the first general manager of the authority, referring to the water available to the farm. The Braggs family filed a takings lawsuit against the authority. This kind of claim can be filed when any level of government—including groundwater districts—takes private property for public use without paying for the owner’s losses. Braggs won. It is the only successful water-related takings claim in Texas, and it made groundwater laws murkier. It cost the authority million. “I think it should have been paid by the state Legislature,” Ellis said. “They’re the ones who designed that permitting system. But that didn’t happen.” An appeals court upheld the ruling in 2013, and the Texas Supreme Court denied petitions to consider appeals. However, the state’s supreme court has previously suggested the Legislature could enhance the powers of the groundwater districts and regulate groundwater like surface water, just as many other states have done. While the laws are complicated, Ellis said the fundamental rule of capture has benefits. It has saved Texas’ legal system from a flurry of lawsuits between well owners. “If they had said ‘Yes, you can sue your neighbor for damaging your well,’ where does it stop?” Ellis asked. “Everybody sues everybody.” Coleman, the High Plains district’s manager, said some people want groundwater districts to have more power, while others think they have too much. Well owners want restrictions for others, but not on them, he said. “You’re charged as a district with trying to apply things uniformly and fairly,” Coleman said. Can’t reverse the past Two tractors were dropping seeds around Walt Hagood’s farm as he turned on his irrigation system for the first time this year. He didn’t plan on using much water. It’s too precious. The cotton farm stretches across 2,350 acres on the outskirts of Wolfforth, a town 12 miles southwest of Lubbock. Hagood irrigates about 80 acres of land, and prays that rain takes care of the rest. Walt Hagood drives across his farm on May 12, in Wolfforth. Hagood utilizes “dry farming,” a technique that relies on natural rainfall.“We used to have a lot of irrigated land with adequate water to make a crop,” Hagood said. “We don’t have that anymore.” The High Plains is home to cotton and cattle, multi-billion-dollar agricultural industries. The success is in large part due to the Ogallala. Since its discovery, the aquifer has helped farms around the region spring up through irrigation, a way for farmers to water their crops instead of waiting for rain that may not come. But as water in the aquifer declines, there are growing concerns that there won’t be enough water to support agriculture in the future. At the peak of irrigation development, more than 8.5 million acres were irrigated in Texas. About 65% of that was in the High Plains. In the decades since the irrigation boom, High Plains farmers have resorted to methods that might save water and keep their livelihoods afloat. They’ve changed their irrigation systems so water is used more efficiently. They grow cover crops so their soil is more likely to soak up rainwater. Some use apps to see where water is needed so it’s not wasted. A furrow irrigation is seen at Walt Hagood’s cotton farm.Farmers who have not changed their irrigation systems might not have a choice in the near future. It can take a week to pump an inch of water in some areas from the aquifer because of how little water is left. As conditions change underground, they are forced to drill deeper for water. That causes additional problems. Calcium can build up, and the water is of poorer quality. And when the water is used to spray crops through a pivot irrigation system, it’s more of a humidifier as water quickly evaporates in the heat. According to the groundwater district’s most recent management plan, 2 million acres in the district use groundwater for irrigation. About 95% of water from the Ogallala is used for irrigated agriculture. The plan states that the irrigated farms “afford economic stability to the area and support a number of other industries.” The state water plan shows groundwater supply is expected to decline, and drought won’t be the only factor causing a shortage. Demand for municipal use outweighs irrigation use, reflecting the state’s future growth. In Region O, which is the South Plains, water for irrigation declines by 2070 while demand for municipal use rises because of population growth in the region. Coleman, with the High Plains groundwater district, often thinks about how the aquifer will hold up with future growth. There are some factors at play with water planning that are nearly impossible to predict and account for, Coleman said. Declining surface water could make groundwater a source for municipalities that didn’t depend on it before. Regions known for having big, open patches of land, like the High Plains, could be attractive to incoming businesses. People could move to the country and want to drill a well, with no understanding of water availability. The state will continue to grow, Coleman said, and all the incoming businesses and industries will undoubtedly need water. “We could say ‘Well, it’s no one’s fault. We didn’t know that factory would need 20,000 acre-feet of water a year,” Coleman said. “It’s not happening right now, but what’s around the corner?” Coleman said this puts agriculture in a tenuous position. The region is full of small towns that depend on agriculture and have supporting businesses, like cotton gins, equipment and feed stores, and pesticide and fertilizer sprayers. This puts pressure on the High Plains water district, along with the two regional water planning groups in the region, to keep agriculture alive. “Districts are not trying to reduce pumping down to a sustainable level,” said Mace with the Meadows Foundation. “And I don’t fault them for that, because doing that is economic devastation in a region with farmers.” Hagood, the cotton farmer, doesn’t think reforming groundwater rights is the way to solve it. What’s done is done, he said. “Our U.S. Constitution protects our private property rights, and that’s what this is all about,” Hagood said. “Any time we have a regulation and people are given more authority, it doesn’t work out right for everybody.” Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply.What can be done The state water plan recommends irrigation conservation as a strategy. It’s also the least costly water management method. But that strategy is fraught. Farmers need to irrigate in times of drought, and telling them to stop can draw criticism. In Eastern New Mexico, the Ogallala Land and Water Conservancy, a nonprofit organization, has been retiring irrigation wells. Landowners keep their water rights, and the organization pays them to stop irrigating their farms. Landowners get paid every year as part of the voluntary agreement, and they can end it at any point. Ladona Clayton, executive director of the organization, said they have been criticized, with their efforts being called a “war” and “land grab.” They also get pushback on why the responsibility falls on farmers. She said it’s because of how much water is used for irrigation. They have to be aggressive in their approach, she said. The aquifer supplies water to the Cannon Air Force Base. “We don’t want them to stop agricultural production,” Clayton said. “But for me to say it will be the same level that irrigation can support would be untrue.” There is another possible lifeline that people in the High Plains are eyeing as a solution: the Dockum Aquifer. It’s a minor aquifer that underlies part of the Ogallala, so it would be accessible to farmers and ranchers in the region. The High Plains Water District also oversees this aquifer. If it seems too good to be true—that the most irrigated part of Texas would just so happen to have another abundant supply of water flowing underneath—it’s because there’s a catch. The Dockum is full of extremely salty brackish water. Some counties can use the water for irrigation and drinking water without treatment, but it’s unusable in others. According to the groundwater district, a test well in Lubbock County pulled up water that was as salty as seawater. Rubinstein, the former water development board chairman, said there are pockets of brackish groundwater in Texas that haven’t been tapped yet. It would be enough to meet the needs on the horizon, but it would also be very expensive to obtain and use. A landowner would have to go deeper to get it, then pump the water over a longer distance. “That costs money, and then you have to treat it on top of that,” Rubinstein said. “But, it is water.” Landowners have expressed interest in using desalination, a treatment method to lower dissolved salt levels. Desalination of produced and brackish water is one of the ideas that was being floated around at the Legislature this year, along with building a pipeline to move water across the state. Hagood, the farmer, is skeptical. He thinks whatever water they move could get used up before it makes it all the way to West Texas. There is always brackish groundwater. Another aquifer brings the chance of history repeating—if the Dockum aquifer is treated so its water is usable, will people drain it, too? Hagood said there would have to be limits. Disclosure: Edwards Aquifer Authority and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here. This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org. #texas #headed #droughtbut #lawmakers #wont
    Texas is headed for a drought—but lawmakers won’t do the one thing necessary to save its water supply
    www.fastcompany.com
    LUBBOCK — Every winter, after the sea of cotton has been harvested in the South Plains and the ground looks barren, technicians with the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District check the water levels in nearly 75,000 wells across 16 counties. For years, their measurements have shown what farmers and water conservationists fear most—the Ogallala Aquifer, an underground water source that’s the lifeblood of the South Plains agriculture industry, is running dry. That’s because of a century-old law called the rule of capture. The rule is simple: If you own the land above an aquifer in Texas, the water underneath is yours. You can use as much as you want, as long as it’s not wasted or taken maliciously. The same applies to your neighbor. If they happen to use more water than you, then that’s just bad luck. To put it another way, landowners can mostly pump as much water as they choose without facing liability to surrounding landowners whose wells might be depleted as a result. Following the Dust Bowl—and to stave off catastrophe—state lawmakers created groundwater conservation districts in 1949 to protect what water is left. But their power to restrict landowners is limited. “The mission is to save as much water possible for as long as possible, with as little impact on private property rights as possible,” said Jason Coleman, manager for the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District. “How do you do that? It’s a difficult task.” A 1953 map of the wells in Lubbock County hangs in the office of the groundwater district. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. Texas does not have enough water to meet demand if the state is stricken with a historic drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board, the state agency that manages Texas’ water supply. Lawmakers want to invest in every corner to save the state’s water. This week, they reached a historic $20 billion deal on water projects. High Plains Underground Water District General Manager Jason Coleman stands in the district’s meeting room on May 21 in Lubbock. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] But no one wants to touch the rule of capture. In a state known for rugged individualism, politically speaking, reforming the law is tantamount to stripping away freedoms. “There probably are opportunities to vest groundwater districts with additional authority,” said Amy Hardberger, director for the Texas Tech University Center for Water Law and Policy. “I don’t think the political climate is going to do that.” State Sen. Charles Perry, a Lubbock Republican, and Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican, led the effort on water in Austin this year. Neither responded to requests for comment. Carlos Rubinstein, a water expert with consulting firm RSAH2O and a former chairman of the water development board, said the rule has been relied upon so long that it would be near impossible to undo the law. “I think it’s better to spend time working within the rules,” Rubinstein said. “And respect the rule of capture, yet also recognize that, in and of itself, it causes problems.” Even though groundwater districts were created to regulate groundwater, the law effectively stops them from doing so, or they risk major lawsuits. The state water plan, which spells out how the state’s water is to be used, acknowledges the shortfall. Groundwater availability is expected to decline by 25% by 2070, mostly due to reduced supply in the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. Together, the aquifers stretch across West Texas and up through the Panhandle. By itself, the Ogallala has an estimated three trillion gallons of water. Though the overwhelming majority in Texas is used by farmers. It’s expected to face a 50% decline by 2070. Groundwater is 54% of the state’s total water supply and is the state’s most vulnerable natural resource. It’s created by rainfall and other precipitation, and seeps into the ground. Like surface water, groundwater is heavily affected by ongoing droughts and prolonged heat waves. However, the state has more say in regulating surface water than it does groundwater. Surface water laws have provisions that cut supply to newer users in a drought and prohibit transferring surface water outside of basins. Historically, groundwater has been used by agriculture in the High Plains. However, as surface water evaporates at a quicker clip, cities and businesses are increasingly interested in tapping the underground resource. As Texas’ population continues to grow and surface water declines, groundwater will be the prize in future fights for water. In many ways, the damage is done in the High Plains, a region that spans from the top of the Panhandle down past Lubbock. The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath the region, and it’s faced depletion to the point of no return, according to experts. Simply put: The Ogallala is not refilling to keep up with demand. “It’s a creeping disaster,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment. “It isn’t like you wake up tomorrow and nobody can pump anymore. It’s just happening slowly, every year.” [Image: Yuriko Schumacher/The Texas Tribune] Groundwater districts and the law The High Plains Water District was the first groundwater district created in Texas. Over a protracted multi-year fight, the Legislature created these new local government bodies in 1949, with voter approval, enshrining the new stewards of groundwater into the state Constitution. If the lawmakers hoped to embolden local officials to manage the troves of water under the soil, they failed. There are areas with groundwater that don’t have conservation districts. Each groundwater districts has different powers. In practice, most water districts permit wells and make decisions on spacing and location to meet the needs of the property owner. The one thing all groundwater districts have in common: They stop short of telling landowners they can’t pump water. In the seven decades since groundwater districts were created, a series of lawsuits have effectively strangled groundwater districts. Even as water levels decline from use and drought, districts still get regular requests for new wells. They won’t say no out of fear of litigation. The field technician coverage area is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office at the High Plains Underground Water District. Bibbs is a permit assistant for the district. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] “You have a host of different decisions to make as it pertains to management of groundwater,” Coleman said. “That list has grown over the years.” The possibility of lawsuits makes groundwater districts hesitant to regulate usage or put limitations on new well permits. Groundwater districts have to defend themselves in lawsuits, and most lack the resources to do so. A well spacing guide is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] “The law works against us in that way,” Hardberger, with Texas Tech University, said. “It means one large tool in our toolbox, regulation, is limited.” The most recent example is a lawsuit between the Braggs Farm and the Edwards Aquifer Authority. The farm requested permits for two pecan orchards in Medina County, outside San Antonio. The authority granted only one and limited how much water could be used based on state law. It wasn’t an arbitrary decision. The authority said it followed the statute set by the Legislature to determine the permit. “That’s all they were guaranteed,” said Gregory Ellis, the first general manager of the authority, referring to the water available to the farm. The Braggs family filed a takings lawsuit against the authority. This kind of claim can be filed when any level of government—including groundwater districts—takes private property for public use without paying for the owner’s losses. Braggs won. It is the only successful water-related takings claim in Texas, and it made groundwater laws murkier. It cost the authority $4.5 million. “I think it should have been paid by the state Legislature,” Ellis said. “They’re the ones who designed that permitting system. But that didn’t happen.” An appeals court upheld the ruling in 2013, and the Texas Supreme Court denied petitions to consider appeals. However, the state’s supreme court has previously suggested the Legislature could enhance the powers of the groundwater districts and regulate groundwater like surface water, just as many other states have done. While the laws are complicated, Ellis said the fundamental rule of capture has benefits. It has saved Texas’ legal system from a flurry of lawsuits between well owners. “If they had said ‘Yes, you can sue your neighbor for damaging your well,’ where does it stop?” Ellis asked. “Everybody sues everybody.” Coleman, the High Plains district’s manager, said some people want groundwater districts to have more power, while others think they have too much. Well owners want restrictions for others, but not on them, he said. “You’re charged as a district with trying to apply things uniformly and fairly,” Coleman said. Can’t reverse the past Two tractors were dropping seeds around Walt Hagood’s farm as he turned on his irrigation system for the first time this year. He didn’t plan on using much water. It’s too precious. The cotton farm stretches across 2,350 acres on the outskirts of Wolfforth, a town 12 miles southwest of Lubbock. Hagood irrigates about 80 acres of land, and prays that rain takes care of the rest. Walt Hagood drives across his farm on May 12, in Wolfforth. Hagood utilizes “dry farming,” a technique that relies on natural rainfall. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] “We used to have a lot of irrigated land with adequate water to make a crop,” Hagood said. “We don’t have that anymore.” The High Plains is home to cotton and cattle, multi-billion-dollar agricultural industries. The success is in large part due to the Ogallala. Since its discovery, the aquifer has helped farms around the region spring up through irrigation, a way for farmers to water their crops instead of waiting for rain that may not come. But as water in the aquifer declines, there are growing concerns that there won’t be enough water to support agriculture in the future. At the peak of irrigation development, more than 8.5 million acres were irrigated in Texas. About 65% of that was in the High Plains. In the decades since the irrigation boom, High Plains farmers have resorted to methods that might save water and keep their livelihoods afloat. They’ve changed their irrigation systems so water is used more efficiently. They grow cover crops so their soil is more likely to soak up rainwater. Some use apps to see where water is needed so it’s not wasted. A furrow irrigation is seen at Walt Hagood’s cotton farm. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] Farmers who have not changed their irrigation systems might not have a choice in the near future. It can take a week to pump an inch of water in some areas from the aquifer because of how little water is left. As conditions change underground, they are forced to drill deeper for water. That causes additional problems. Calcium can build up, and the water is of poorer quality. And when the water is used to spray crops through a pivot irrigation system, it’s more of a humidifier as water quickly evaporates in the heat. According to the groundwater district’s most recent management plan, 2 million acres in the district use groundwater for irrigation. About 95% of water from the Ogallala is used for irrigated agriculture. The plan states that the irrigated farms “afford economic stability to the area and support a number of other industries.” The state water plan shows groundwater supply is expected to decline, and drought won’t be the only factor causing a shortage. Demand for municipal use outweighs irrigation use, reflecting the state’s future growth. In Region O, which is the South Plains, water for irrigation declines by 2070 while demand for municipal use rises because of population growth in the region. Coleman, with the High Plains groundwater district, often thinks about how the aquifer will hold up with future growth. There are some factors at play with water planning that are nearly impossible to predict and account for, Coleman said. Declining surface water could make groundwater a source for municipalities that didn’t depend on it before. Regions known for having big, open patches of land, like the High Plains, could be attractive to incoming businesses. People could move to the country and want to drill a well, with no understanding of water availability. The state will continue to grow, Coleman said, and all the incoming businesses and industries will undoubtedly need water. “We could say ‘Well, it’s no one’s fault. We didn’t know that factory would need 20,000 acre-feet of water a year,” Coleman said. “It’s not happening right now, but what’s around the corner?” Coleman said this puts agriculture in a tenuous position. The region is full of small towns that depend on agriculture and have supporting businesses, like cotton gins, equipment and feed stores, and pesticide and fertilizer sprayers. This puts pressure on the High Plains water district, along with the two regional water planning groups in the region, to keep agriculture alive. “Districts are not trying to reduce pumping down to a sustainable level,” said Mace with the Meadows Foundation. “And I don’t fault them for that, because doing that is economic devastation in a region with farmers.” Hagood, the cotton farmer, doesn’t think reforming groundwater rights is the way to solve it. What’s done is done, he said. “Our U.S. Constitution protects our private property rights, and that’s what this is all about,” Hagood said. “Any time we have a regulation and people are given more authority, it doesn’t work out right for everybody.” Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] What can be done The state water plan recommends irrigation conservation as a strategy. It’s also the least costly water management method. But that strategy is fraught. Farmers need to irrigate in times of drought, and telling them to stop can draw criticism. In Eastern New Mexico, the Ogallala Land and Water Conservancy, a nonprofit organization, has been retiring irrigation wells. Landowners keep their water rights, and the organization pays them to stop irrigating their farms. Landowners get paid every year as part of the voluntary agreement, and they can end it at any point. Ladona Clayton, executive director of the organization, said they have been criticized, with their efforts being called a “war” and “land grab.” They also get pushback on why the responsibility falls on farmers. She said it’s because of how much water is used for irrigation. They have to be aggressive in their approach, she said. The aquifer supplies water to the Cannon Air Force Base. “We don’t want them to stop agricultural production,” Clayton said. “But for me to say it will be the same level that irrigation can support would be untrue.” There is another possible lifeline that people in the High Plains are eyeing as a solution: the Dockum Aquifer. It’s a minor aquifer that underlies part of the Ogallala, so it would be accessible to farmers and ranchers in the region. The High Plains Water District also oversees this aquifer. If it seems too good to be true—that the most irrigated part of Texas would just so happen to have another abundant supply of water flowing underneath—it’s because there’s a catch. The Dockum is full of extremely salty brackish water. Some counties can use the water for irrigation and drinking water without treatment, but it’s unusable in others. According to the groundwater district, a test well in Lubbock County pulled up water that was as salty as seawater. Rubinstein, the former water development board chairman, said there are pockets of brackish groundwater in Texas that haven’t been tapped yet. It would be enough to meet the needs on the horizon, but it would also be very expensive to obtain and use. A landowner would have to go deeper to get it, then pump the water over a longer distance. “That costs money, and then you have to treat it on top of that,” Rubinstein said. “But, it is water.” Landowners have expressed interest in using desalination, a treatment method to lower dissolved salt levels. Desalination of produced and brackish water is one of the ideas that was being floated around at the Legislature this year, along with building a pipeline to move water across the state. Hagood, the farmer, is skeptical. He thinks whatever water they move could get used up before it makes it all the way to West Texas. There is always brackish groundwater. Another aquifer brings the chance of history repeating—if the Dockum aquifer is treated so its water is usable, will people drain it, too? Hagood said there would have to be limits. Disclosure: Edwards Aquifer Authority and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here. This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.
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  • Sellers or buyers housing market? Zillow’s analysis for 250 metros

    Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter.

    Zillow economists have an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers.

    A higher score indicates a hotter metro-level housing market where sellers have more power. A lower score indicates a colder metro-level housing market where buyers have more power.

    According to Zillow, a score of 70 or above is a strong sellers market, and a score from 55 to 69 is a sellers market. A score of 44 to 55 indicates a neutral market. A score from 28 to 44 reflects a buyers market, and a score of 27 or below is a strong buyers market.

    Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 for its April 2025 reading, published in May 2025, right on the border between a sellers market and a neutral market. That said, Zillow’s reading varies significantly across the county.

    Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the hottest markets, where sellers have the most power, according to Zillow:

    Rochester, NY: 169

    Buffalo, NY: 126

    Charleston, WV: 107

    Syracuse, NY: 105

    Hartford, CT: 97

    Albany, NY: 97

    Manchester, NH: 93

    Anchorage, AK: 86

    Boston, MA: 85

    Lansing, MI: 85

    And these 10 are the coldest markets, where buyers have the most power, according to Zillow:

    Jackson, TN: 23

    Macon, GA: 25

    Gulfport, MS: 26

    Brownsville, TX: 27

    Naples, FL: 27

    Cape Coral, FL: 30

    Daphne, AL: 30

    Panama City, FL: 30

    Punta Gorda, FL: 31

    Beaumont, TX: 33

    5 takeaways on Zillow’s latest assessment

    Directionally, there’s a lot Zillow gets right. We believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most leverage—particularly around the Gulf. It also highlights areas where sellers have maintained, relatively speaking, some degree of control, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest.

    In ResiClub’s view, Zillow is slightly overstating Northeast and Midwest tightness. While there are still some relatively competitive pockets in those regions, Zillow’s model appears to exaggerate the strength of seller conditions. In the real world, many of these markets feel more neutral or only slightly tilted toward sellers—not full-blown “strong sellers markets” as the model suggests.

    Zillow also appears to be overstating seller strength on the West Coast. Conditions on the West Coast have clearly softened over the past year, and Zillow’s model doesn’t fully reflect that shift.

    The softest housing markets right now are Southwest Florida and Central Texas. Based on our own housing market analysis, Florida, in particular, Southwest Florida currently stands out as the softest region in the country, followed by Central Texas markets such as Austin and San Antonio.

    Zillow’s Market Heat Index is useful—but I believe ResiClub’s monthly reports—especially our inventory analysis across +800 metros and +3,000 counties and our home price analysis across 800+ metros and 3,000+ counties—do a better job of keeping housing stakeholders ahead of market shifts and better informed on current market dynamics.

    What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2022 at the climax of the pandemic housing boom? Below is Zillow’s April 2022 reading—published in May 2022.
    #sellers #buyers #housing #market #zillows
    Sellers or buyers housing market? Zillow’s analysis for 250 metros
    Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists have an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. A higher score indicates a hotter metro-level housing market where sellers have more power. A lower score indicates a colder metro-level housing market where buyers have more power. According to Zillow, a score of 70 or above is a strong sellers market, and a score from 55 to 69 is a sellers market. A score of 44 to 55 indicates a neutral market. A score from 28 to 44 reflects a buyers market, and a score of 27 or below is a strong buyers market. Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 for its April 2025 reading, published in May 2025, right on the border between a sellers market and a neutral market. That said, Zillow’s reading varies significantly across the county. Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the hottest markets, where sellers have the most power, according to Zillow: Rochester, NY: 169 Buffalo, NY: 126 Charleston, WV: 107 Syracuse, NY: 105 Hartford, CT: 97 Albany, NY: 97 Manchester, NH: 93 Anchorage, AK: 86 Boston, MA: 85 Lansing, MI: 85 And these 10 are the coldest markets, where buyers have the most power, according to Zillow: Jackson, TN: 23 Macon, GA: 25 Gulfport, MS: 26 Brownsville, TX: 27 Naples, FL: 27 Cape Coral, FL: 30 Daphne, AL: 30 Panama City, FL: 30 Punta Gorda, FL: 31 Beaumont, TX: 33 5 takeaways on Zillow’s latest assessment Directionally, there’s a lot Zillow gets right. We believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most leverage—particularly around the Gulf. It also highlights areas where sellers have maintained, relatively speaking, some degree of control, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest. In ResiClub’s view, Zillow is slightly overstating Northeast and Midwest tightness. While there are still some relatively competitive pockets in those regions, Zillow’s model appears to exaggerate the strength of seller conditions. In the real world, many of these markets feel more neutral or only slightly tilted toward sellers—not full-blown “strong sellers markets” as the model suggests. Zillow also appears to be overstating seller strength on the West Coast. Conditions on the West Coast have clearly softened over the past year, and Zillow’s model doesn’t fully reflect that shift. The softest housing markets right now are Southwest Florida and Central Texas. Based on our own housing market analysis, Florida, in particular, Southwest Florida currently stands out as the softest region in the country, followed by Central Texas markets such as Austin and San Antonio. Zillow’s Market Heat Index is useful—but I believe ResiClub’s monthly reports—especially our inventory analysis across +800 metros and +3,000 counties and our home price analysis across 800+ metros and 3,000+ counties—do a better job of keeping housing stakeholders ahead of market shifts and better informed on current market dynamics. What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2022 at the climax of the pandemic housing boom? Below is Zillow’s April 2022 reading—published in May 2022. #sellers #buyers #housing #market #zillows
    Sellers or buyers housing market? Zillow’s analysis for 250 metros
    www.fastcompany.com
    Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists have an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. A higher score indicates a hotter metro-level housing market where sellers have more power. A lower score indicates a colder metro-level housing market where buyers have more power. According to Zillow, a score of 70 or above is a strong sellers market, and a score from 55 to 69 is a sellers market. A score of 44 to 55 indicates a neutral market. A score from 28 to 44 reflects a buyers market, and a score of 27 or below is a strong buyers market. Nationally, Zillow rates the U.S. housing market at 55 for its April 2025 reading, published in May 2025, right on the border between a sellers market and a neutral market. That said, Zillow’s reading varies significantly across the county. Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 are the hottest markets, where sellers have the most power, according to Zillow: Rochester, NY: 169 Buffalo, NY: 126 Charleston, WV: 107 Syracuse, NY: 105 Hartford, CT: 97 Albany, NY: 97 Manchester, NH: 93 Anchorage, AK: 86 Boston, MA: 85 Lansing, MI: 85 And these 10 are the coldest markets, where buyers have the most power, according to Zillow: Jackson, TN: 23 Macon, GA: 25 Gulfport, MS: 26 Brownsville, TX: 27 Naples, FL: 27 Cape Coral, FL: 30 Daphne, AL: 30 Panama City, FL: 30 Punta Gorda, FL: 31 Beaumont, TX: 33 5 takeaways on Zillow’s latest assessment Directionally, there’s a lot Zillow gets right. We believe Zillow has correctly identified many regional housing markets where buyers have gained the most leverage—particularly around the Gulf. It also highlights areas where sellers have maintained, relatively speaking, some degree of control, including large portions of the Northeast and Midwest. In ResiClub’s view, Zillow is slightly overstating Northeast and Midwest tightness. While there are still some relatively competitive pockets in those regions, Zillow’s model appears to exaggerate the strength of seller conditions. In the real world, many of these markets feel more neutral or only slightly tilted toward sellers—not full-blown “strong sellers markets” as the model suggests. Zillow also appears to be overstating seller strength on the West Coast. Conditions on the West Coast have clearly softened over the past year, and Zillow’s model doesn’t fully reflect that shift. The softest housing markets right now are Southwest Florida and Central Texas. Based on our own housing market analysis, Florida, in particular, Southwest Florida currently stands out as the softest region in the country, followed by Central Texas markets such as Austin and San Antonio. Zillow’s Market Heat Index is useful—but I believe ResiClub’s monthly reports—especially our inventory analysis across +800 metros and +3,000 counties and our home price analysis across 800+ metros and 3,000+ counties—do a better job of keeping housing stakeholders ahead of market shifts and better informed on current market dynamics. What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2022 at the climax of the pandemic housing boom? Below is Zillow’s April 2022 reading—published in May 2022.
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  • CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati and Höweler + Yoon unveil design for floating plaza for COP30 in Brazil

    html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" ";
    Together with Italy's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Italy's Ministry of Environment and Energy Security, CIHEAM Bari, the World Bank Group's Connect4Climate program, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati and Höweler + Yoon have unveiled AquaPraça, a floating cultural plaza that will serve as the focal point of COP30 in Belém, Brazil. AquaPraça serves as a forum for international climate discussion by utilizing sensing technologies and Archimedes' principle to adjust to shifting sea levels and occupancy demands. It will make its transatlantic journey to the Amazonian city, where it will become a permanent cultural landmark, after making its premiere at the 19th International Architecture Exhibition of the 2025 Venice Architecture Biennale. The architecture of AquaPraça, which spans more than 400 square meters, physically carves out public space from the sea, establishing a tangible conversation between natural forces and the constructed environment. Using the concepts of buoyancy, displacement, and equilibrium, the submersible structure floats. AquaPraça continuously adjusts its holding and releasing capacity to keep a low freeboard with the surrounding water level. At eye level, the audience witnesses the dynamic variations of sea level rise, resulting in fresh insights into urban and ecological systems. AquaPraça's aim is to act as a civic catalyst. It can accommodate more than 150 people for cultural events, workshops, symposia, and exhibitions. It will make its sustainable journey to Belém after making its debut at the Biennale Architettura in September 2025. There, it will be a crucial component of the Italian Pavilion at COP 30, showcasing Italy's architectural and climate action thoughts to a worldwide audience. As a permanent legacy of the summit in the Amazon, the platform will continue to be a component of Belém's cultural infrastructure after the summit. A special international alliance makes AquaPraça possible. It was started in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in Italy. It is also supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the World Bank's Connect4Climate program, CIHEAM Bari, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and others. The establishment emphasizes the goal of bringing disparate communities together and promoting ecological thought globally. There is a formal procedure in place for expressing interest."In 1979, Aldo Rossi launched the Teatro del Mondo at the first Biennale Architettura, positing that architecture could engage with the past," said Carlo Ratti, professor at MIT and the Politecnico di Milano, co-founder of CRA, and curator of the Biennale Architettura 2025.""Today, AquaPraça shows how architecture can engage with the future—by responding to climate and engaging with nature rather than resisting it,” Ratti added."AquaPraça lets visitors meet the sea at eye level," said Eric Höweler, co-founder of Höweler + Yoon and a Professor at Harvard University. "Its sloping surfaces and shifting levels embody a delicate equilibrium." "It’s a platform, both literal and figurative, for deepening our collective understanding and experience of sea level rise and the impacts of climate change on global cities and communities," added J. Meejin Yoon, co-founder of Höweler + Yoon and the Gale and Ira Drukier Dean at Cornell University College of Architecture, Art, and Planning, “and seeking collective solutions."Image © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniLeading cutting-edge steel construction firm Cimolai is now building AquaPraça in northeastern Italy. It will be exhibited on September 4, 2025, at the 19th International Architecture Exhibition of the 2025 Venice Architecture Biennale, before traveling to Brazil. A permanent floating monument in the Amazon, it will be anchored in Belém from November 10–21, 2025, as part of the Italy Pavilion at COP30. It is an architectural example of flexibility and communication in the face of climate change.Project factsProject name: AquaPraçaArchitects: CRA-Carlo Ratti Associatiand Höweler + Yoon ArchitectureTeam MembersCRA-Carlo Ratti Associati: Carlo Ratti, Andrea Cassi, Luca Bussolino, Gizem Veral, Sonia Simone, Rodolfo Siccardi, Gary di Silvio, Pasquale Milieri, Gianluca Zimbardi; Höweler + Yoon Architecture: J Meejin Yoon, Eric Höweler, Asli Baran Grace, Shuang Chen, Selin Sahin, David HammSupporters: Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale; Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Cornell University College of Architecture, Art, and PlanningIn collaboration with: Ciheam Bari, the World Bank Group’s Connect4Climate Program Technical Collaborators: Elettra Bordonaro, Argun Paragamyan, and Luciana Martinez, Light Follows Behaviour; Cristiano Bottino, Studio FM; Mykola Murashko, Davide Spina, Julio Ramirez, and Eren Sezer, Maestro Technologies; Corrado Curti, IngeMBP; Luca Infanti, Luca Vian, Simone Andreatta, Filippo Bellomo, and Mario Nattero, CIMOLAI; Roberto Prever and Antonio Vatta, NAOS; Ruben Pescara and Lodovica Bontempelli, NMLex; Domenico Perrotta, DP38.All images courtesy of CRA and Höweler + Yoon Architecture.All exhibition images © Agnese Bedini.> via Carlo Ratti Associati
    #cracarlo #ratti #associati #höweler #yoon
    CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati and Höweler + Yoon unveil design for floating plaza for COP30 in Brazil
    html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" "; Together with Italy's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Italy's Ministry of Environment and Energy Security, CIHEAM Bari, the World Bank Group's Connect4Climate program, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati and Höweler + Yoon have unveiled AquaPraça, a floating cultural plaza that will serve as the focal point of COP30 in Belém, Brazil. AquaPraça serves as a forum for international climate discussion by utilizing sensing technologies and Archimedes' principle to adjust to shifting sea levels and occupancy demands. It will make its transatlantic journey to the Amazonian city, where it will become a permanent cultural landmark, after making its premiere at the 19th International Architecture Exhibition of the 2025 Venice Architecture Biennale. The architecture of AquaPraça, which spans more than 400 square meters, physically carves out public space from the sea, establishing a tangible conversation between natural forces and the constructed environment. Using the concepts of buoyancy, displacement, and equilibrium, the submersible structure floats. AquaPraça continuously adjusts its holding and releasing capacity to keep a low freeboard with the surrounding water level. At eye level, the audience witnesses the dynamic variations of sea level rise, resulting in fresh insights into urban and ecological systems. AquaPraça's aim is to act as a civic catalyst. It can accommodate more than 150 people for cultural events, workshops, symposia, and exhibitions. It will make its sustainable journey to Belém after making its debut at the Biennale Architettura in September 2025. There, it will be a crucial component of the Italian Pavilion at COP 30, showcasing Italy's architectural and climate action thoughts to a worldwide audience. As a permanent legacy of the summit in the Amazon, the platform will continue to be a component of Belém's cultural infrastructure after the summit. A special international alliance makes AquaPraça possible. It was started in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in Italy. It is also supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the World Bank's Connect4Climate program, CIHEAM Bari, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and others. The establishment emphasizes the goal of bringing disparate communities together and promoting ecological thought globally. There is a formal procedure in place for expressing interest."In 1979, Aldo Rossi launched the Teatro del Mondo at the first Biennale Architettura, positing that architecture could engage with the past," said Carlo Ratti, professor at MIT and the Politecnico di Milano, co-founder of CRA, and curator of the Biennale Architettura 2025.""Today, AquaPraça shows how architecture can engage with the future—by responding to climate and engaging with nature rather than resisting it,” Ratti added."AquaPraça lets visitors meet the sea at eye level," said Eric Höweler, co-founder of Höweler + Yoon and a Professor at Harvard University. "Its sloping surfaces and shifting levels embody a delicate equilibrium." "It’s a platform, both literal and figurative, for deepening our collective understanding and experience of sea level rise and the impacts of climate change on global cities and communities," added J. Meejin Yoon, co-founder of Höweler + Yoon and the Gale and Ira Drukier Dean at Cornell University College of Architecture, Art, and Planning, “and seeking collective solutions."Image © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniLeading cutting-edge steel construction firm Cimolai is now building AquaPraça in northeastern Italy. It will be exhibited on September 4, 2025, at the 19th International Architecture Exhibition of the 2025 Venice Architecture Biennale, before traveling to Brazil. A permanent floating monument in the Amazon, it will be anchored in Belém from November 10–21, 2025, as part of the Italy Pavilion at COP30. It is an architectural example of flexibility and communication in the face of climate change.Project factsProject name: AquaPraçaArchitects: CRA-Carlo Ratti Associatiand Höweler + Yoon ArchitectureTeam MembersCRA-Carlo Ratti Associati: Carlo Ratti, Andrea Cassi, Luca Bussolino, Gizem Veral, Sonia Simone, Rodolfo Siccardi, Gary di Silvio, Pasquale Milieri, Gianluca Zimbardi; Höweler + Yoon Architecture: J Meejin Yoon, Eric Höweler, Asli Baran Grace, Shuang Chen, Selin Sahin, David HammSupporters: Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale; Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Cornell University College of Architecture, Art, and PlanningIn collaboration with: Ciheam Bari, the World Bank Group’s Connect4Climate Program Technical Collaborators: Elettra Bordonaro, Argun Paragamyan, and Luciana Martinez, Light Follows Behaviour; Cristiano Bottino, Studio FM; Mykola Murashko, Davide Spina, Julio Ramirez, and Eren Sezer, Maestro Technologies; Corrado Curti, IngeMBP; Luca Infanti, Luca Vian, Simone Andreatta, Filippo Bellomo, and Mario Nattero, CIMOLAI; Roberto Prever and Antonio Vatta, NAOS; Ruben Pescara and Lodovica Bontempelli, NMLex; Domenico Perrotta, DP38.All images courtesy of CRA and Höweler + Yoon Architecture.All exhibition images © Agnese Bedini.> via Carlo Ratti Associati #cracarlo #ratti #associati #höweler #yoon
    CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati and Höweler + Yoon unveil design for floating plaza for COP30 in Brazil
    worldarchitecture.org
    html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40/loose.dtd" Together with Italy's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Italy's Ministry of Environment and Energy Security, CIHEAM Bari, the World Bank Group's Connect4Climate program, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati and Höweler + Yoon have unveiled AquaPraça, a floating cultural plaza that will serve as the focal point of COP30 in Belém, Brazil. AquaPraça serves as a forum for international climate discussion by utilizing sensing technologies and Archimedes' principle to adjust to shifting sea levels and occupancy demands. It will make its transatlantic journey to the Amazonian city, where it will become a permanent cultural landmark, after making its premiere at the 19th International Architecture Exhibition of the 2025 Venice Architecture Biennale. The architecture of AquaPraça, which spans more than 400 square meters (4,000 square feet), physically carves out public space from the sea, establishing a tangible conversation between natural forces and the constructed environment. Using the concepts of buoyancy, displacement, and equilibrium, the submersible structure floats. AquaPraça continuously adjusts its holding and releasing capacity to keep a low freeboard with the surrounding water level. At eye level, the audience witnesses the dynamic variations of sea level rise, resulting in fresh insights into urban and ecological systems. AquaPraça's aim is to act as a civic catalyst. It can accommodate more than 150 people for cultural events, workshops, symposia, and exhibitions. It will make its sustainable journey to Belém after making its debut at the Biennale Architettura in September 2025. There, it will be a crucial component of the Italian Pavilion at COP 30, showcasing Italy's architectural and climate action thoughts to a worldwide audience. As a permanent legacy of the summit in the Amazon, the platform will continue to be a component of Belém's cultural infrastructure after the summit. A special international alliance makes AquaPraça possible. It was started in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment and Energy Security and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in Italy. It is also supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies, the World Bank's Connect4Climate program, CIHEAM Bari, Brazil's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and others. The establishment emphasizes the goal of bringing disparate communities together and promoting ecological thought globally. There is a formal procedure in place for expressing interest."In 1979, Aldo Rossi launched the Teatro del Mondo at the first Biennale Architettura, positing that architecture could engage with the past," said Carlo Ratti, professor at MIT and the Politecnico di Milano, co-founder of CRA, and curator of the Biennale Architettura 2025.""Today, AquaPraça shows how architecture can engage with the future—by responding to climate and engaging with nature rather than resisting it,” Ratti added."AquaPraça lets visitors meet the sea at eye level," said Eric Höweler, co-founder of Höweler + Yoon and a Professor at Harvard University. "Its sloping surfaces and shifting levels embody a delicate equilibrium." "It’s a platform, both literal and figurative, for deepening our collective understanding and experience of sea level rise and the impacts of climate change on global cities and communities," added J. Meejin Yoon, co-founder of Höweler + Yoon and the Gale and Ira Drukier Dean at Cornell University College of Architecture, Art, and Planning, “and seeking collective solutions."Image © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniImage © Agnese BediniLeading cutting-edge steel construction firm Cimolai is now building AquaPraça in northeastern Italy. It will be exhibited on September 4, 2025, at the 19th International Architecture Exhibition of the 2025 Venice Architecture Biennale, before traveling to Brazil. A permanent floating monument in the Amazon, it will be anchored in Belém from November 10–21, 2025, as part of the Italy Pavilion at COP30. It is an architectural example of flexibility and communication in the face of climate change.Project factsProject name: AquaPraçaArchitects: CRA-Carlo Ratti Associati (Coordinator) and Höweler + Yoon ArchitectureTeam MembersCRA-Carlo Ratti Associati: Carlo Ratti (Principal), Andrea Cassi (Principal), Luca Bussolino (Strategy), Gizem Veral (Architect), Sonia Simone (Architect), Rodolfo Siccardi (Senior Architect), Gary di Silvio (Architect/3D Artist), Pasquale Milieri (Architect/3D Artist), Gianluca Zimbardi (Architect/3D Artist); Höweler + Yoon Architecture: J Meejin Yoon (Principal), Eric Höweler (Principal), Asli Baran Grace (Project manager), Shuang Chen (Designer), Selin Sahin (researcher), David Hamm (Technical Advisor) Supporters: Ministero degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale; Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica; Bloomberg Philanthropies; Cornell University College of Architecture, Art, and PlanningIn collaboration with: Ciheam Bari, the World Bank Group’s Connect4Climate Program Technical Collaborators: Elettra Bordonaro, Argun Paragamyan, and Luciana Martinez, Light Follows Behaviour; Cristiano Bottino, Studio FM; Mykola Murashko, Davide Spina, Julio Ramirez, and Eren Sezer, Maestro Technologies; Corrado Curti, IngeMBP; Luca Infanti, Luca Vian, Simone Andreatta, Filippo Bellomo, and Mario Nattero, CIMOLAI; Roberto Prever and Antonio Vatta, NAOS; Ruben Pescara and Lodovica Bontempelli, NMLex; Domenico Perrotta, DP38.All images courtesy of CRA and Höweler + Yoon Architecture.All exhibition images © Agnese Bedini.> via Carlo Ratti Associati
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