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Democratic voters just won a 10-point landslide in a state that Trump won last year. How?The answer is a defining trend of modern elections: There are two different kinds of electorates who come out to vote in the Trump era.On Tuesday night, the liberal, Democrat-aligned Judge Susan Crawford defeated her Republican-backed opponent by nearly 300,000 votes a 10-point margin less than a year after President Donald Trump carried the state on his way to a battleground sweep.She achieved that victory as more than 2.3 million people turned out to vote, about two-thirds of last years electorate. Thats significantly more than the last time a high-profile court seat was up for grabs and nearly matches the level of turnout in the 2022 midterms.Crawfords victory has been cast as symbolic for many reasons. Its both a referendum on the months-old Trump administration and on Elon Musk for his involvement and spending in the race. It was a test of liberal organizing and Democratic enthusiasm ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as the partys base demands their leaders do more and they look for ways to resist Trump.But Wisconsins weird voting dynamics in the Trump era, combined with other national special and off-year elections, also demonstrate the role Trump has played in scrambling electoral coalitions and see-sawing the balance of power both in Washington and in the states. Two different electorates, polarized by education, class, and political engagement, have emerged one which benefits Democrats broadly, another which benefits solely Trump himself.Wisconsins recent see-sawingWisconsin in the age of Trump has been a curious place to watch. As a battleground for presidential and state-level contests, it has swung wildly between barely electing a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate, and delivering comfortable margins for liberals and Democrats running in off-year or midterm cycles. 2016: Red. Trump flipped the state, long a part of the Democratic Blue Wall (the Rust Belt, overwhelmingly white working-class states that used to elect Democrats) by a tiny margin of 0.7 percent, or about 20,000 votes. White working-class and non-college educated voters came out to vote for Trump, while minority voter turnout dropped, dooming Hillary Clinton.2018: Blue. Just two years later, the states progressive Democratic senator, Tammy Baldwin, won reelection by about 10 points, boosted by high Democratic enthusiasm and Trump disaffection. Suburbs and urban centers boosted Baldwins win, as college-educated, wealthier, and suburban voters around the country moved away from the Trump Republican Party and felt comfortable voting for a Democrat.2020: Blue. Joe Biden flipped the state back from Trump, but just barely. He won with a 0.62 percent margin, much closer than expected, as Trump was able to again get out more votes from his Republican base of white non-college educated voters. Turnout in cities and suburbs helped the Democrats outpace the number of new rural and non-college educated voters going for Trump. 2022: Red (barely). Two years later, during midterm elections that went much better than expected for Democrats, the states other senator, the conservative, ultra-MAGA loyalist Ron Johnson, retained his seat with a 20,000 vote or 1 percent margin. Most counties in the state shifted right during that election compared to 2020, making it a bit of an outlier among battleground states.2024: Red again. Trump would then go on to win the state in 2024, beating Kamala Harris by about 30,000 votes, or 0.86 percent, as he turned out even more rural voters. All but four highly urban and college-educated counties would shift to the right that year.What explains these wild pendulum swings?A clear story emerges when looking at overall turnout, county-specific demographics, Democratic enthusiasm, and polling in Wisconsin. And that story fits into a pattern of elections in the state. Wisconsins 2025 electorate was deeply Democratic: made up of not just the most informed and engaged voters, but also some lower-propensity voters who were persuaded to flip. As the data journalist Steve Kornacki pointed out ahead of the election, in off-year contests when Trump isnt on the ballot, pro-Trump blue-collar white voters have been less motivated to vote than have anti-Trump college-educated voters. That dynamic leads to results like Tuesday nights, when turnout in the most highly educated, Democratic parts of the state was much higher than turnout in the more non-college educated, pro-Trump places. An emblematic location was Dane County, home of Madison: Crawford received more net votes and a higher share of the vote than the Democrats 2022 Senate nominee Mandela Barnes.This dynamic may continue to repeat itselfWisconsin is just the latest example of how two different electorates are determining the balance of power in America. When Trump is on the ballot, lower-propensity, non-college educated, and (more recently) disaffected voters of color are more likely to turn out and vote for him, even if they dont necessarily vote for other Republicans. That was a factor that contributed not just to Harriss loss in 2024, but also to Senate and House Democrats overperformance in swing states. Democratic Senate candidates like Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, Ruben Gallego in Arizona, and Baldwin in Wisconsin all outran Harriss performance and won their respective races, in part because Republican turnout for Trump didnt trickle its way down the ballot.When Trump is not on the ballot, highly motivated, high-information, and disaffected anti-Trump voters (some of them former Republicans) still turn out, or turn out at even higher rates for Democratic candidates and those candidates still win over some share of Republicans who can be persuaded to vote for a Democrat. At the same time, lower-propensity Trump voters stay home. This is a historic shift. For most of the last 30 years, its been the Republican Party that has had the more attuned, higher-propensity voters who would turn out in off-year elections, and so would benefit from a smaller electorate. Democrats were the ones struggling to get their voters to the polls when Barack Obama wasnt on the ballot. But the Republican Party has been trading away many of those higher-propensity, college-educated, and wealthier voters to the Democrats in the Trump era, as Democrats lost more white, non-college educated voters.This pattern was again demonstrated in Wisconsin this week, but also in special elections across the country. In Floridas First and Sixth Congressional Districts, a share of Republican voters who turned out voted for Democratic candidates, particularly in the First District, which has more of a college-educated electorate. This was also a factor in the 2022 midterms, when states like Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia had plurality-Republican electorates that still ended up sending Democratic Senate candidates to Congress.Democrats are celebrating this most recent win in Wisconsin, and there are clear signs that the next year stands to see a score of Democratic victories in statewide and House elections. But the dynamic that is saving them in off years might not rescue them in the next presidential election (in which Trump will presumably not be on the ballot). They may have more lessons to learn about how to take advantage of the fundamentals that benefit them right now, and they surely have lessons to learn about how to counter Trumps influence before the next presidential cycle.See More: