As a professional declutterer I help my clients get rid of things they don't want or need anymore.Some people love collecting things, but it can quickly turn into clutter.It's much harder to get rid of multiple objects you've collected than just one.Tom Hanks famously collects typewriters, Jerry Seinfeld maintains multiple garages to house all his cars, and Rosie O'Donnell has amassed over 2,500 Happy Meal toys.Some of us are just collectors at heart. But what's the difference between a meaningful collection and a bunch of stuff you can't find space for?As a professional declutterer, I know that getting rid of a collection is harder than getting rid of single items.Collections are time-consumingSeveral years ago, I purchased a blue ceramic owl that housed a particularly great scented candle. A few weeks later, I saw another large blue ceramic owl this time fashioned into a vase. Of course, I bought it, they looked great together. Then, I ran across a green ceramic owl in a thrift store. Well, I already had two, so why not one more?Thus was born a collection I had no intention of creating. That's the thing about collecting; you might set out to acquire a trucker hat from every state in the nation, which is a noble enterprise. But you might also end up procuring a whole pile of desert-themed hand-painted shot glasses without ever really meaning to.If you find that owning two of something quickly turns into owning too many of that thing, slow your roll. Ask yourself: Is this something to which I really want to devote time, money, and shelf space? Or is it merely an excuse to hold on to random stuff I've acquired?They can turn into clutterOnce I recognized that I'd accidentally started collecting ceramic owls, I realized I had no interest in housing an entire flock. This wasn't a cool collection in the making; it was undeniably clutter. This led me to a reckoning. I traversed the house, ferreting out groups of objects that threatened to turn into full-blown compilations.I decided that I could maintain three collections. Each comprised small items, and one was even useful, sort of. Everything else went to the thrift store. This is how I avoided collecting mid-century wooden candle holders, teacups in a distinct shade of blue, or glass bottles that fit particular but hard-to-define parameters. My life is better without these things.For those of you who are not collectors but know them, here's a little advice: it's tempting to buy your aunt yet another squirrel sculpture or your nephew another stuffie. But think about whether you'd be adding a special piece to a meaningful collection or merely loading them up with the kind of clutter that's hard to get rid of.It's harder to get rid of collectionsCollections can end up owning the collector; it's much harder to get rid of a set of something than a single object. And if half the items have been purchased by someone else, you may come to feel that you're obligated to keep the whole lot, whether you're all that interested in owning dozens of camels, as happened to my mother-in-law.Clutter is sticky. It wants to fill your shelves and cupboards. You'll think of a thousand reasons to hold on to it even when it's no longer sparking anything but annoyance. Label that clutter "A Collection," and it may be with you until the end, like it or not. Instead, choose things that actually bring you joy.If you do have a collection, display it with pride. Put it where you can see it every day and revel in each piece. A collection that lives in darkness may as well not exist.Finally, think like a curator. Not every miniature French horn is an excellent miniature French horn. Choose the best and pass the others along. If you're going to bother collecting at all, make it into an art form. Be an authority on your chosen object. If you don't love it, it's not really a collection, it's just clutter.

For the sixth year in a row, the staff of Future Perfect convened in December to make predictions about major events in the year to come. Will Congress pass a tariff bill that makes President-elect Donald Trump happy? Will the H5N1 bird flu become an honest-to-god pandemic? Will the war in Ukraine stop? Will a major sports figure get caught up in a gambling scandal?Its fun to make predictions about the future, which is part of the reason why we do it so often. But this isnt just blind guessing. Each prediction comes with a probability attached to it. That gives you a sense of our confidence (high in the case of, say, Charli XCXs Grammy chances, less so in the case of Irans nuclear plans). And dont make the same mistake that people seem to make every presidential cycle. Even a probability as high as 75 percent or 80 percent doesnt mean were sure something will happen. Rather, it means we think that if we made four or five predictions, wed expect three or four of them to come true, respectively. And as we have every year, well be keeping track of how our predictions fared over the course of 2025, and report back to you at the end of December. You can check out how we did in 2024 here. And weve done something new this year in partnering with the prediction platform Metaculus. You can check it out here to see how the community there came down on a number of our predictions and even compete in a prize pool and click on the individual questions with links to go directly to them on Metaculus. Weve also added the Metaculus communitys aggregated forecasts as of December 31 for the questions theyve taken on. Bryan WalshThe United StatesDonald Trumps 2024 campaign was perhaps the most pro-tariff of any candidate since William McKinley: He promised 60 percent taxes on imports from China, and 10 percent on everywhere else. In victory hes only gotten bolder, calling for 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, in flagrant violation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a free trade deal made by some past president named Donald Trump.The bad news for consumers and the world economy is that Trump has substantial discretion to impose tariffs as president without consulting Congress. But that discretion isnt unlimited, and probably doesnt permit the kind of 10 percent across-the-board tariff Trump promised. Plus, Republicans want a revenue source to help offset the cost of making Trumps 2017 tax cuts permanent before they expire at the end of next year. This raises the question: Will Congress pass a tariff measure on its own that not only implements Trumps ideas, but lets them endure under future presidents?My guess is no. There was a time in the distant past, lets call it 2015, when Republicans were the party of free markets and free trade, and some members of Congress havent forgotten that. Early reporting suggests that many GOP figures in the House and Senate are hostile to the idea of including tariffs in a tax package. Republicans can only lose three senators and two House members out of their caucus and still pass bills, which gives them very little margin for error, and makes it very difficult to pass legislation that splits the caucus like tariffs.Two caveats, though. One, Im predicting about a tariff bill and not new unilateral tariffs from Trump because I think the odds that Trump does new tariffs using presidential authority are nearly 100 percent. Two, the only reason my estimate isnt lower is that theres been some bipartisan interest in a carbon border adjustment, or a sort of carbon tax that only applies to imported goods. The idea has gotten Republican support because while it does acknowledge that global warming is real, it also sticks it to foreigners. Thats a tariff, and I think the likeliest kind to make it into a tax package (though I still bet against it). Dylan MatthewsMetaculus aggregated forecast: 7 percent Something I love and hate about American politics is that big weighty-seeming questions, like Can Donald Trump fulfill his campaign promise to abolish the Department of Education? turn out to hinge on much weirder and more technical questions, like Will the Senate parliamentarian rule a departmental reorganization as ineligible for the reconciliation process under the Byrd rule?The Department of Education, whose main duties are administering student loans and financial aid for higher-ed institutions and distributing funds (around $39 billion in 2023) to local schools under programs like Title I (for poor districts) and IDEA (for disabled students), was created in a 1979 act of Congress. Passing a normal bill repealing that act would require 60 Senate votes to break a filibuster, which means winning over seven Democrats to the idea, which isnt going to happen. So legislation abolishing the department (already written by GOP Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota) would have to pass through budget reconciliation, which lets certain legislation pass with a mere majority in the Senate.But reconciliation has strict requirements limiting the content of legislation that can be passed that way, and in particular provisions of bills that are only incidentally related to the overall level of spending or taxing tend to be struck down by the Senate parliamentarian as contrary to the Byrd rule, the main governing principle behind the reconciliation process.Roundss bill, notably, doesnt eliminate the Department of Educations actual functions. It just moves them around. Student loans, for instance, would go to the Treasury Department, and the Department of Labor would get vocational programs. This strikes me as an archetypal example of a change that is merely incidental to the actual level of spending, and that cant be done with reconciliation.LAGUNA NIGUEL, CA - August 20: A student hangs his backpack with his kindergarten classmates on the first day of class at Moulton Elementary School in Laguna Niguel, CA on Tuesday, August 20, 2024. (Photo by Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images) Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group via Getty ImagesWill the Senate parliamentarian disagree with me? Possibly. But also, in part because this move is so much more about reorganization than the actual substance of the departments programs, I am very skeptical that Republicans are going to go to the mat on this one. If they can only win so many fights with the parliamentarian, are they going to prioritize changing the mailing address of the student loan office? I doubt it. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 4 percentFrom the moment the Affordable Care Act was signed into law on March 23, 2010, the Republican Party has been obsessed with repealing it. They even shut down the government over it. Then, in 2017, the dog finally caught the car: Republicans had both houses of Congress and the presidency, and in theory the opportunity to repeal the law.They didnt.Sure, the tax law that year eliminated the individual mandate to get health insurance, but that turned out to not be as important to getting people coverage as the ACAs authors thought. The rest of the bill its dramatic Medicaid expansions, rules protecting people with preexisting conditions and letting young adults stay on their parents insurance, subsidies for individuals to buy health insurance if their employer doesnt provide it remained intact. Even skinny repeal, a bill that zeroed out only a handful of provisions of the law, failed to pass the Senate when John McCain made his famous thumbs-down gesture, but matters had only even gotten to that point because several other senators didnt want to vote for sweeping Medicaid cuts, like those entailed by simply repealing the ACA in its entirety.Will they try again in 2025? Im skeptical. And here, by repeal Obamacare, I dont even necessarily mean repealing all of it. To qualify as repeal, a bill has to do at least three of the following five things:Eliminate or reduce the ACAs Medicaid eligibility or federal fundingEliminate or reduce ACA health insurance tax credit eligibility or amountEliminate or curtail the mandate for certain employers to provide health coverage for employees. Reducing the penalties will also be considered to be relaxing the mandate.Make it so that ACA subsidies are no longer limited to plans that satisfy the requirements specified in the ACA, including allowing ACA subsidies to be contributed to health savings accounts or similar accountsEliminate or curtail medical underwriting restrictions, like the ban on considering preexisting conditionsYes, Trumps budgets and those that his past and future budget chief Russ Vought prepared during the Biden years did propose undoing the ACAs coverage expansions, and then cutting Medicaid still further. I anticipate they will continue to make these proposals. But I am doubtful that with a much narrower House majority than they had in 2017, and an equally narrow Senate majority, Republicans will be able to pass cuts on a scale that they couldnt get off the ground eight years ago. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 10 percentHere are the facts: Jerome Powells term as chair of the Federal Reserve expires on May 15, 2026. He has pledged to stay on as chair until that time, though not necessarily to remain as a member of the Board of Governors until his term there expires in 2028. Donald Trump has said he does not plan to fire Powell before that time. Powell has insisted that the president does not legally have the power to fire him before his term is up, and that he will refuse to obey such an order.In many ways, 90 percent seems too low, because the odds that a 71-year-old man dies in the next year are only 2.9 percent, and I have an easier time envisioning Powell dying in office than acquiescing to a firing.But I should also fess up to a personal bias here. Jay Powell is, by a wide margin, the greatest chair of the Federal Reserve that the institution has ever had, and perhaps the greatest central banker in any nation of modern times. He prevented Covid from spiraling into a global financial crisis, oversaw an astonishingly rapid recovery of employment and economic growth in the pandemics aftermath, and managed a soft landing that ended an inflationary episode without having to spark a recession. He is a miraculous figure who we do not deserve, and for my own sanity I need him to stick around. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 8 percentAmericans have a charming habit of deciding to like the newly elected president as soon as the elections over, and Donald Trumps favorability rating has gone from 8.6 points underwater on Election Day to only 1.9 points negative on December 19. (By favorability rating, I mean the difference between the share of voters saying they view him favorably minus the share saying they view him unfavorably. Once hes president, Ill count this prediction as resolving to true if either his favorability or job approval ratings are positive; while similar, these arent exactly the same question.)But how long do presidential honeymoon periods last? Not very long, as it turns out. Back in 2022, FiveThirtyEights Geoffrey Skelley and Jean Yi crunched the data and found that Obama, Trump I, and Biden alike all saw their approval ratings dip below 50 percent by the end of the first year (Trump was never even above 50 when he started!):FiveThirtyEight, 2022The two exceptions on the chart are Bill Clinton, who saw a curious fall and then recovery over 1993 that I dont really understand, and George W. Bush, whose first year included 9/11. I think the odds of another 9/11 are mercifully low, and the trend appears to be toward lower approval for presidents in their first year in recent times. Moreover, Trump is unusually loathed by a huge segment of the population and is promising massive tariffs that I suspect will prove unpopular once they start raising the prices of everyday household items. So I feel pretty good predicting Trump will be below water at years end. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 17 percentStill friends is obviously a subjective category but I like the prediction markets guru Nathan Youngs proposed definition: if one or the other publicly and unambiguously disparages his counterpart at least three times. Luckily for us, Trump and Musk are not subtle or taciturn men, and when they dislike someone they have a tendency to scream that loudly many, many times, so I dont anticipate it being hard to decide where they stand at the end of 2025.The list of one-time Trump allies who eventually came to denounce him is too long to include in full here, but let us briefly remember, say, 10: Anthony Scaramucci; Mike Pence; John Kelly; John Bolton; HR McMaster; Stephanie Grisham; Alyssa Farah Griffin; Betsy DeVos; and of course Michael Cohen.It does not seem like an ambitious prediction that Musk will eventually join their ranks. His role as the head of the new Department of Government Efficiency seems guaranteed to put him on a collision course with Trumps Cabinet officials and with congressional Republicans, and probably also with his cochair Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump might side with Musk each time but hes always been more pragmatic about spending policy than the cut-happy Musk seems, and there are ripe opportunities for conflict.What if Musk wants to slash Medicare and Social Security, which Trump has promised to defend? What if he wants defense cuts and Trump wants a tougher posture toward China? What if Musk pushes for reconciliation with China, with whose government he is extremely close (Ramaswamy once called Musk a circus monkey working for Xi Jinping)?BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 19: Elon Musk speaks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump as they watch the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket on November 19, 2024 in Brownsville, Texas. SpaceXs billionaire owner, Elon Musk, a Trump confidante, has been tapped to lead the new Department of Government Efficiency alongside former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images) Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesI wont predict the exact inciting episode that causes Trump and Musk to fall out. But I feel like I know how these guys operate, and I think its more likely than not that they will fall out. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 35 percentLast year, I correctly predicted that more than 40,000 Americans would be killed by cars in 2023 (according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administrations estimates, which are released with a lag the following year). Since the 1960s, the US has seen rapid, dramatic progress in cutting its car fatality rate, and 2007 was the last year that over 40,000 Americans were killed by our car-dependent transportation system until the Covid-19 pandemic. You would think that fewer people driving would mean fewer car crash deaths, but not so in America, where our dangerously designed roads lead to more speeding and death when theres less traffic. Ever since, Americas rate of death by cars has sat at levels that should honestly be humiliating for such a rich country. These numbers are slowly starting to come back down. NHTSA recently estimated that for the first half of 2024, car crash deaths were down 3.2 percent from 2023. If the same trend from 2023 carries over to the second half of 2024, total 2024 car fatalities will come in at a hair under 40,000. Its far from guaranteed, because car crash patterns vary significantly across different seasons. And that number would still be nothing to write home about but in a country so thoroughly built around automobiles, getting deaths back under 40,000 would be a milestone worth celebrating. Marina BolotnikovaMetaculus aggregated forecast: 81 percentThe worldWhat a difference a year makes. In December 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was incredibly unpopular, his image severely damaged by his governments total failure to anticipate the deadly October 7 attacks by Hamas. Polls indicated his Likud party might win only 17 of 120 seats in Israels Knesset. Israel was on its way to becoming an international pariah because of the destructive way it was waging its war in Gaza, and Israelis were furious about the governments failure to rescue the hostages held by Hamas, even after a November 2023 deal to bring some home. Oh, and Netanyahu was only a few months removed from massive street protests and was facing corruption charges. Fast-forward to December 2024, and polls suggest Netanyahus Likud party would win 25 seats if elections were held today, more than any other party. Israel has all but destroyed Hezbollah, by far its most capable opponent, and has isolated Iran, arguably its most existential threat. After the sudden fall of Syrias Bashar al-Assad, Israel has even captured territory formerly under the Syrian governments control. And President Joe Biden, who at least occasionally pushed back against Netanyahu, is about to be replaced by President-elect Donald Trump, who has signaled that he will happily give Israel a freer hand in Gaza.Netanyahu has been prime minister of Israel for roughly 17 of the past 28 years. Every time it seems like hes in an unwinnable position, he seems to find a way to wriggle out of it. I have every expectation that will continue in 2025. BWMetaculus aggregated forecast: 75 percentAmericans got pretty upset about inflation in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic, but weve got nothing on our Argentinian friends:Here in the US, were such babies that well complain about 6 percent to 7 percent inflation. In Argentina, double-digit annual inflation rates were normal even before the pandemic. Annual inflation hit triple digits and started what looked like an exponential climb, still ongoing when left-wing Peronist Alberto Fernndez left office.Javier Milei, a chainsaw-wielding self-described anarcho-capitalist who named his dogs after the libertarian economists Milton Friedman, Murray Rothbard, and Robert Lucas, initiated shock therapy upon taking office this year, eliminating price controls and subsidies for things like fuel and food, as well as massively devaluing the peso. That made prices surge even more massively at first (which you can see in the chart above). But since then theyve been subsiding. The price surge had the salutary effect of easing the governments debt burden, and the nations budget went into surplus for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.This has come at a considerable cost, with poverty and unemployment spiking, and the economy as a whole in recession for much of the year. But now that the recession is over and the country is seeing both cooling inflation and a growing economy, a sadly unusual combo down in Buenos Aires.That said, I dont think were going to see the country get down to a 30 percent annual inflation rate in 2024. The 12-month inflation rate in November 2024 was 166 percent, down 27 points from the month before. If the rate keeps falling at that pace, the country will hit the 30 percent mark in five months. But I think progress against inflation will slow as the initial shock of Mileis policies subsides and pressure for wage hikes intensifies in a country thats finally growing again. The IMF anticipates annual inflation hitting a low of 45 percent next year, and I think thats a reasonable guess. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 55 percentThe war in Ukraine is just short of its third anniversary. The very fact that Ukraine has continued to fight this long defies most early prognosticators, many of whom expected the government in Kyiv to collapse not long after the Russians invaded. (An exception there, as Future Perfect readers know, is the State Departments perspicacious Bureau of Intelligence and Research.) But the longer the war goes on, the more Russias sheer size and willingness to sacrifice unbelievable numbers of soldiers has outweighed Ukraines ability to fight back, even with the material support of the US and European allies. President Biden has mostly been a steadfast ally, but hell be leaving office on January 20, replaced by Donald Trump, who has made no secret of the fact that he has little interest in continuing to support Ukraine. Both sides are still fighting hard to gain and protect territory, but it seems clear thats being done by both Ukraine and Russia to put themselves in the best possible position before expected peace talks. Exactly what form that will take is difficult to predict, and a ceasefire doesnt mean a permanent peace. But I would be shocked to not see a durable pause in the fighting some time in 2025. BW Metaculus aggregated forecast: 44 percentUkrainian servicemen of the 33rd brigade operate a Leopard battle tank in the direction of Kurahove, Ukraine, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues on December 19, 2024. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu via Getty ImagesFor the purposes of this prediction, getting nuclear weapons means producing enough fissile material to fuel a nuclear weapon. Actually producing a usable nuclear weapon including miniaturizing a warhead enough to fit on a missile might take another several months to a year or more, and thus probably falls outside the 2025 time frame. Iran is already on the brink of sufficient enrichment estimates are that it would only take about a week for Iran to enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. So the question here is primarily one of international politics. Iran had a terrible 2024. It directly attacked Israel with missiles twice, only to see both salvos largely neutralized by missile defense systems, while Israels own retaliatory attack on Iran was far more successful. The Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Irans most powerful proxy, was all but annihilated by Israel, which continues to operate in parts of southern Lebanon. And the return of Donald Trump brings a president into office whom Iran has been accused of trying to assassinate.Put that all together, and the Iranian regime finds itself in a very insecure place, and may look to nuclear weapons as a way to level the playing field. At the same time, relatively new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has made overtures to the West and seems to understand that the only path to economic relief for his country is a new deal that limits the nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions.The Iranian regimes number one priority is its own survival, and my best guess is that they will decide that the risk of going full speed on a nuclear program isnt worth it, at least for another year. (Theres also the possibility that accelerating its nuclear work could lead to a military intervention by Israel or the US that would stop the program in its tracks.) So I think on balance that Iran wont join the nuclear club in 2025 though its not a prediction I make with a great deal of certainty. BW Metaculus aggregated forecast: 8 percentScience and technologyFirst off, some math. While it may feel as if infectious disease pandemics have become a regular occurrence, they still remain highly rare. Since 1918, there have been five influenza pandemics: the Spanish flu of that year, the 1957 Asian flu, the 1968 Hong Kong flu, the 1977 Russian flu, and the 2009 swine flu. That gives a naive percentage of about 5 percent for any given year.But theres evidence that outbreaks of new infectious diseases are increasing, as the Covid pandemic amply demonstrated. And the H5N1 avian flu has been infecting a growing variety and number of animals, and more recently, people. On December 18, California, where 34 human cases of the virus have been detected, became the first state to institute a state of emergency over bird flu. New research suggests just a single mutation could be enough to potentially increase the viruss ability to spread from person to person, which would be a prerequisite to becoming a pandemic. (Right now, H5N1 only rarely seems to be able to spread between people, and only in very limited fashion.) RelatedThe bird flu doom loopSo why am I mostly pessimistic about H5N1s ability to truly break out, which for the purposes of this prediction would mean the WHO officially declaring it a pandemic, which would require sustained human transmission over multiple regions? Not because were doing a great job containing it we definitely are not. Rather, its personal experience.Ive been covering H5N1 since it began really spilling over in Southeast Asia in 2004. Ive been to backyard chicken farms in Indonesia and virology labs in Hong Kong. Ive watched this virus as closely as any other subject Ive covered in nearly a quarter-century as a professional journalist, and I just dont think H5N1 has it. Call it a hunch, and one I hope will hold true. BW Metaculus aggregated forecast: 26 percentFor precision, let me clarify that by major lab I mean any of the following companies:This is a purposefully broad list and includes companies that havent made it a priority to be on the bleeding edge of deep learning (like Netflix) and ones whose primary business isnt in developing their own models so much as hosting or enabling models that others create (like Scale or Hugging Face). But, you know, I thought Nvidia wasnt in this race until it dropped a massive model in October with impressive benchmarks, so a lot of things can change quickly in the world of AI.Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a vague term, and there is a large and growing literature in which AI researchers seek merely to define it, let alone to predict what it would look like or mean. That said, most definitions rely on an analogy to humans: an AI will be generally intelligent if it can do everything a human being can do, as well as a human being can, including meta-tasks like learning to complete new tasks. This idea itself has holes in it. Different human beings can do different things I cannot do everything, say, Katie Ledecky can do.Luckily for us, the prediction here doesnt require us to know what AGI means. It just requires a major firm to claim to have achieved it, accurately or not. One OpenAI staffer took to X this past year to claim that the firms models had already gotten there (though, importantly, the company itself has not made claims that grand). So if the bar is that low, why do I think well make it through the year without a company making this claim? Mostly because a) this is a young field where firm reputation matters a ton and being discredited by a premature AGI announcement might make the difference between a company ending up like Apple and ending up like Atari, and b) this is the kind of technology where premature claims can be discredited really, really fast. If a nuclear fusion company claims to have achieved net energy gain, it is very difficult for me, a non-nuclear physicist, to tell if theyre bluffing. Its not like I can use the nuclear reactor. But an AGI would presumably come with text, video, audio, and other interfaces that average consumers could try out and use, and itd be immediately clear if some AI firm claimed to have gotten there when they hadnt. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast: 20 percentIm not really a fan of private cars (see my other car-related prediction above), and I wish our solution to climate change was to just have fewer of them. But this is America, so we have to work within the maddeningly car-dependent cage of our own creation. Electric cars are obviously better for society in most respects (though not all their heavy weight means theyre more dangerous to pedestrians, cyclists, and anyone outside the vehicle), so I grudgingly have to welcome the EV transition thats finally picking up. New VW ID.Buzz electric buses are parked in a parking lot at the Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles plant. Julian Stratenschulte/Picture Alliance via Getty ImagesBy the third quarter of 2024, EVs made up 8.9 percent of new car sales in the US, according to an analysis by Kelley Blue Book. Thereve been reports that electric car sales are slowing, but given their consistent past growth rates, plus the fact that interest rates are coming down, I think well hit 10 percent by the same time this year without much trouble. Donald Trumps promise to do sweeping tariffs could throw a wrench in all that, but given my colleague Dylan Matthewss prediction about the unlikelihood of that happening, I wont calibrate my prediction around it too much. MBMetaculus aggregated forecast: 67 percentThe digital gold rush probably still hasnt reached full frenzy, believe it or not. Bitcoin recently topped $100,000 in value for the first time, but we are going to have to think bigger. I think its going to double its value in the next 12 months and Im not the only one.This is not an endorsement, to be clear; I own no bitcoin. When I read Warren Buffett still believes Bitcoin is a fad, that people do stupid things and this will be the latest trend in fiscal speculation to end in failure, I take it seriously. The case for bitcoin remains muddied, at least to me.But Buffett has also compared bitcoin to gambling and, well, the gambling business is booming. Even if Bitcoin is a questionable long-term investment dont forget it dropped below $20,000 in late 2022 people can still get a kick out of the continued accumulation of value, and thats the basis of any bubble. It helps that Donald Trump and the crew hes bringing back to Washington have gone all in on the crypto craze; they are likely to do whatever they can to stoke the speculation further.Bitcoin just saw its value more than double over the course of 2024. I think its more likely than not itll repeat the feat with those winds at its back. Dylan ScottMetaculus aggregated forecast: 20 percentMy source here is the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Since the 2012 inception of the Bloomberg list, the occupant of the top spot has changed five times. In 2013, surging Microsoft shares enabled Bill Gates to beat out Mexican telecom mogul Carlos Slim, who led the list at its outset. In 2017, Amazon shares put Jeff Bezos ahead of Gates. The massive rally around Tesla led in January 2021 to Elon Musk deposing Bezos. But Louis Vuitton chief Bernard Arnault overtook him in October 2022 in part because Musk had to sell much of his Tesla fortune to finance his purchase of Twitter. But by May of the following year, Musk was back on top.Will Elon Musk still be the richest person in the world throughout 2024? is actually two separate questions: one, will he be dethroned by anyone in the next year; two, will he live through the year? Normally the latter wouldnt be a concern for a 53-year-old man with access to the best health care money can buy, but Musk is, uh, not the most stable person on earth. So Id put maybe a 5 percent probability he loses the title by way of the Grim Reaper.Five switches in the top ranking over 12.5 years of the Bloomberg ranking existing implies, naively, a 40 percent chance that the top rank will switch in any given year. Theres tons of fluctuation within the top 10 even in a given month, as these net worths are hugely dependent on stock returns. Jensen Huang of Nvidia, currently ranked 12th, gained $73.4 billion in 2024 alone, by far the biggest part of his $117 billion fortune. Its sobering to return to the 2013 article on Gates overtaking Slim, which notes at the bottom an up-and-comer named Elon Musk, whose car company brought him up to a net worth of $5.4 billion. Today, its $455 billion. Life moves pretty fast.Anyway, 40 percent odds that Musk is overtaken by another billionaire plus 5 percent odds he dies = 45 percent odds that he is no longer the richest man, and 55 percent odds that he still is.One exception to my policy of relying on Bloomberg here: hilariously, Bloomberg refuses to include Michael Bloomberg in its ranking, but should Bloomberg, LPs value surge or Mike otherwise become the richest person in the world according to the Forbes Worlds Billionaire List or some other reliable source, Ill consider Musk dethroned, even if Bloomberg itself refuses to report on its leaders riches. DMMetaculus aggregated forecast; 85 percentLast year was an eventful one in the saga of psychedelics seeking a return to mainstream medicine.Roughly 38 years of planning came to a head when Lykos Therapeutics a for-profit outgrowth of the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, founded in 1986 submitted an application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for MDMA therapy to treat PTSD. Despite widespread expectations it would succeed, the FDA did not grant approval, unsettling psychedelic companies, advocates, and the industry at large.The FDA didnt outright reject the application, but asked for another Phase 3 clinical trial, which will likely take a couple of years to complete and resubmit to the FDA. With Lykos going back to the drawing board, whos going to take the next swing at FDA approval?My prediction: no one, at least not in 2025. At the moment, there arent many other companies with Phase 3 trials underway. Two of the closest behind Lykos are in the midst of trials looking at psilocybin to treat depression Compass Pathways and the Usona Institute. Compass launched its trial in January 2023, but delayed a top-line readout of its results and cut 30 percent of its staff after the FDAs decision on Lykos. They dont expect to complete the study until February of 2026. Usona launched its Phase 3 trial in March 2024 and doesnt anticipate completing the study let alone putting together a new drug application and submitting it to the FDA until April 2026.We certainly wont see any companies announce a Phase 3 trial, complete it, and package the findings into an application to the FDA all within the span of one year. So its difficult to imagine any pathway toward an FDA approval in 2025. There are still some slightly cracked backdoors that could usher psilocybin into accepted medical use within the year, like the FDA granting an emergency use authorization, which could even force the holy grail of a true psychedelic renaissance rescheduling it to a lower category of the Controlled Substances Act before getting FDA approval.So while I think the chances of normal FDA approval in 2025 are basically zero, considering the EUA backdoor, plus the general state of accelerating weirdness of the world these days, bumps my estimate up to 20 percent that we wind up with any federally authorized medical use of a new psychedelic drug in 2025. Oshan JarowMetaculus aggregated forecast: 33 percentThe 20252030 federal dietary guidelines advise Americans to avoid ultra-processed foods (30 percent)I just wrote a long story about why the concept of ultra-processed foods is kind of BS its overly broad, arbitrary, and even liable to vilify foods that are good for us. It does not make sense as a policymaking tool. The scientific panel thats advising the creation of the 20252030 federal dietary guidelines, due out this year, acknowledged as much in December, when it concluded that theres not much reliable evidence linking ultra-processed foods to poor health outcomes. CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - DECEMBER 11: A customer shops for cookies manufactured by Mondelez at a grocery store on December 11, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. Mondelez is one of several companies named in a lawsuit that accuses major food manufacturers of marketing ultra-processed and addictive foods to children. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) Scott Olson/Getty ImagesThe final dietary guidelines, which are jointly created by the US Department of Agriculture and the Department of Health and Human Services and play an important role in shaping federal nutrition programs like National School Lunch, often arent fully aligned with the scientific committees recommendations. But where they differ, its often to benefit powerful food industries, like the meat industry and producers of sugary snacks. And a sweeping recommendation against ultra-processed foods would be consistent with neither nutrition science nor corporate interests. So whatever the hype about Robert F. Kennedy Jr. cracking down on ultra-processed foods, I expect the final document to come to more or less the same conclusion as the science. MBAnimalsMost of the antibiotics used in human medicine are actually sold to meat companies, which put them in animals feed to make them grow faster and prevent disease outbreaks in factory farms. But some bacteria on farms are becoming resistant to these antibiotics, giving way to new strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria that make the drugs less effective in treating humans.Its a huge public health threat, and experts have warned that we ought to rein in antibiotic use in the meat industry. Last year, I predicted that livestock antibiotics sales would increase by 2 percent in 2023, but instead, they declined by 1 percent. (Data on sales lags by about a year.) I erred in giving too much weight to past trends, as antibiotic sales to the livestock industry had been on the rise for years. Instead, I shouldve used projected meat production as a rough proxy for livestock antibiotic sales. Doing so this time around, antibiotic sales to meat producers should have increased in 2024 by around 0.83 percent, given that beef production is expected to remain stable, pork production will increase by a few percentage points, and turkey production will decrease by a few percentage points. There are numerous factors that could result in my guesstimate being off, such as disease prevalence and corporations reducing antibiotic use due to consumer pressure. For the sake of safeguarding one of humanitys greatest inventions antibiotics I hope Im wrong. Kenny Torrella Metaculus aggregated forecast: 50 percentSince early 2022, 112 million poultry birds mostly turkeys and egg-laying hens have been violently killed in an effort to slow the spread of a bird flu outbreak that has roiled the poultry industry for nearly three years now.The first year was the worst, with almost 58 million birds killed. Things slowed down a bit in 2023, with 21.8 million poultry birds dead, but then worsened in 2024, with 41 million birds killed as of mid-December. I predict at least another 30 million will die in 2025. Its incredibly difficult to make predictions for such an unpredictable disease, so Im pegging my confidence level at a meek 60 percent. But its reasonable to think that the Trump administration will handle the situation in a similarly poor fashion to the Biden administrations bungled, industry-friendly response, allowing the virus to circulate freely among livestock and wildlife. Novogen Brown chickens at an egg farm in Briones, California, US, on Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023. Breakfast is getting even more expensive after US egg prices soared 8.5% in January while citrus fruits, cereal and baked goods also climbed. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesThe US Department of Agriculture has been testing vaccines for poultry birds and dairy cows. However, its unclear when theyll be ready and, more importantly, whether theyll be deployed, because using them could disrupt trade, and both industry and the USDA dont want that to happen. KTMetaculus aggregated forecast: 96 percentFor six years, the US pork industry has been looking for a way to get rid of Californias Proposition 12, a landmark animal welfare law, passed by ballot measure in 2018, that outlawed certain forms of extreme confinement on factory farms. That included a ban on the sale of pork raised using gestation crates tiny cages in which pregnant pigs are kept continually, barely given any room to move. The practice, as we wrote last year, is equivalent to living your entire, short life pregnant and trapped inside a coffin. Having failed to convince courts, including the US Supreme Court, of their legal arguments for overturning the law, pork giants are now trying to get Congress to nullify Prop 12 through the Farm Bill, a massive legislative package passed every five years that shapes much of US food and farming policy. Last May, the House Agriculture Committee advanced a Republican-led Farm Bill that includes just such a measure. Always live to serve. At the time, I didnt think this version of the bill would go anywhere. This year, Congress will need to finally pass the long-delayed Farm Bill, and with a majority in both chambers, Republicans chances of axing Prop 12 will be much greater. Still, I dont really see it happening, in part because some members of the Freedom Caucus oppose it as a severe limit on states ability to set their own policies. Much like their long-promised efforts to trash the Affordable Care Act, Republicans love to talk about repealing stuff but rarely follow through. MBMetaculus aggregated forecast: 78 percentEarlier this year, Florida and Alabama banned the production and sale of lab-grown or cell-cultivated meat. Cell-cultivated meat is real meat but made without slaughtering animals instead, startups take animal cells, place them in a large steel tank, and feed them a mix of ingredients, like sugars, minerals, vitamins, and amino acids, for several weeks until they can be harvested as meat. The bans were transparent efforts to protect the respective states livestock industries and score political points by further pulling meat into Americas culture war. Its a somewhat hollow victory for the culture warriors and red state governors cell-cultivated meat is still incredibly expensive to produce and has only been sold in small batches for limited runs at a handful of US restaurants.Its an emerging technology, and theres still uncertainty as to whether the startups that make it will be able to scale their operations to produce a meaningful amount of meat. But if they do figure it out, these bans could be a real headache in the future, both for the companies bottom lines and Americas climate goals, as cell-cultivated meat has potential to cut agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.Nevertheless, lawmakers in other states are lining up behind Florida and Alabama to pass their own bans, including in Arizona, Michigan, Tennessee, and Illinois. Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen has said he plans to work with state lawmakers to introduce a ban in the next legislative session.I think the likelihood that at least one of these states passes a ban is high, and especially in Nebraska, as Pillen is one of the nations largest pork producers and has railed against meat alternatives. While it wont affect the cell-cultivated meat startups much in the short term, it would contribute to political hostility that could spell doom in the long run. KTMetaculus aggregated forecast: 85 percentCulture and sportsThe evidence is adding up that the widespread legalization of gambling has been, at best, reckless. Putting a casino on the phones everyone carries around in their pocket has created social and economic harms that need to be taken seriously, before a deeper crisis sets in. It is a world that is unthinkable to me, as somebody who grew up in the shadow of the Pete Rose scandal. Whatever you think of Pete Rose the person, the all-time hits leader is not in the Baseball Hall of Fame because his gambling was regarded as a violation of the games most important values. Today, Major League Baseball airs on the FanDuel Sports Network in my area and the biggest name in sports media, ESPN, runs its own sportsbook.Only scandal could break the spell, right? But the truth is, we have already seen a series of sports betting scandals since the 2018 Supreme Court decision that unlocked this new era of gambling. NFL wide receiver Calvin Ridley lost a year of his young career to a gambling-related suspension. One NBA bench player was banned from the league for giving tips to gamblers and allegedly altering his play based on bets.But those players were not All-Stars, much less household names. We have not yet had a player of the caliber of LeBron James or Patrick Mahomes implicated by gambling allegations. But we have come close. Last year, National League MVP Shohei Ohtani of the MLBs Los Angeles Dodgers was ensnared when his personal trainer faced criminal charges related to his gambling, though Ohtani was ultimately found not to be involved.It seems only a matter of time until a major sports star faces a serious gambling scandal. I dont know if this will be the year. It may not be. But Im confident the next Pete Rose is already out there. DSMetaculus aggregated forecast: 15 percentMax Verstappen wins the Formula 1 World Drivers Championship (60 percent)Listen, the four-time world champ has grown on me a lot. Red Bull driver Max Verstappen has proven his dominance on the track over and over again, but with Lewis Hamilton (who has won seven times!) moving over to Scuderia Ferrari, Im not so sure anymore. Plus, theres McLarens Lando Norris, who had a hell of a car this previous season. Im not a Lando enjoyer, but its undeniable that hes inching closer and closer to being a challenger for the title. All that said, my prediction is that Max will win the drivers championship, but Red Bull will lose the constructors again. Izzie RamirezCharli XCX at Billboard Women In Music 2024 held at YouTube Theater on March 6, 2024 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Rich Polk/Billboard via Getty Images) Rich Polk/Billboard via Getty ImagesCharli XCX wins a Grammy for Brat (90 percent)Ive been a Charli stan since her Sucker and No. 1 Angel days, and its been absolutely wild watching her become a household name. Brat was as much a cultural phenomenon as it was the defining sound of the summer (and many political memes), with the albums garish green becoming a shorthand for whats cool. It appeared at the very top of year-end lists from publications like Metacritic and the New York Times Id be absolutely shocked if it didnt win for album of the year. But Im going to be intentionally open for this prediction: 360, Apple, or the Guess remix featuring 2024 Future Perfect 50 honoree Billie Eilish are all also contenders in their respective song categories. Now if only the Academy could retroactively give Charli an award for her actual best song IRYouve read 1 article in the last monthHere at Vox, we're unwavering in our commitment to covering the issues that matter most to you threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the environment, and the rising polarization across this country.Our mission is to provide clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to stay informed and engaged in shaping our world. By becoming a Vox Member, you directly strengthen our ability to deliver in-depth, independent reporting that drives meaningful change.We rely on readers like you join us.Swati SharmaVox Editor-in-ChiefSee More:

EXCLUSIVE: Daily Star news editor Abigail Hunt stepped into a virtual world to try out a new fitness game the incredible visuals had her not wanting to step back into the real world

Its been a December to remember. This month, we got a beefy gaming tower from Origin PCand a reprise of thehandheld MSI Clawthat redeems much of what we didnt like about the last generation. We also finished our long-term review of GooglesPixel Watch 3, which was such a hit that I bought the 45mm version outright. We alsochecked out a watch that can help with rolling dice. There were some bummers, too. They didnt make this roundup, but they still got a shout-out. Samsungs Galaxy Chromebook Plus is light as a feather, but its gorgeous AMOLED display falters when its limited to a 60Hz refresh rateand on a laptop that suggests you stream games with it. Acer also showed that it could make some lovely OLED displays for its laptops, though the Swift 16 AI as an entire package is a major no-no. Plus, a PSA for smart ring wearers, especially those who may have received a Samsung Galaxy Ring for Christmas and are wondering about its durability. Next month is CES 2025. Were already fielding stories about what the industry hopes to position as next and new. Since artificial intelligence permeates everything, it will involve much of that as the selling point. It will also be a great time to tune in if youre trying to upgrade your home entertainment setup, as all the new TVs and smart home technologies are trotted out. And dont forget the weird stuff, like laptops that roll up and out to give you more screen space. Expect next months roundup to be chockful of things as we head for the winter thaw. Google Pixel Watch 3 Florence Ion / Gizmodo In our long-term review update, I finally gave the Pixel Watch 3 the full score it deserves. This is worth a trade-in if youre still waffling on whether or not to get a Pixel Watch. It comes in two screen sizes, big (41mm) and bigger (45mm), and offers better battery life and health tracking than the first two generations. Its still not a perfect watch. For instance, unlike the Apple Watch ecosystem, Googles proprietary watchband connection makes it hard to find neat knockoffs to swap in and out. But this is the best smartwatch in the Android ecosystem, even if you dont use Fitbit.Timestop D-20 Photo: Kyle Barr / Gizmodo This wasnt a full review but a big hit among this monthsGizmodo recommendations. Kyle took the Timestop D-20 to PAX Unplugged, quickly becoming his gaming gadget of 2024. The watch tells time and pretends to roll the dice. It looks cool, wears comfortably, and was designed with RPG and board gamers in mind. The watch likely wont be accepted as dice in any modern RPG, but you dont have to charge it every night like a smartwatch. Origin PC Neuron 3500X Photo: Kyle Barr / Gizmodo The Origin PC Neuron 3500X is a solid gaming machine with top-end specifications. Its quiet fans facilitate excellent airflow, and the RGB lighting makes the case look like a fish tank from the 90s. But even with its discounted high cost, it could be more sturdy. The case is prone to bending, and the panels fly off like pieces of uninspected Boeing fuselage. Everything else about this PC is solid.MSI Claw 8 AI+ Photo: Adriano Contreras / Gizmodo AI is everywhere, even in the name of a second-gen portable gaming console. MSIs Claw 8 AI+ is a revamped version of the last Claw, which wasfine, though it could have been so much better. This new handheld promises better performance for demanding and casual games on a gorgeous bigger screen than its competitors, the Steam Deck and Asus ROG Ally. While its battery life is good, the software could use some polishing. Overall, the direction that MSI is heading in with its gaming handhelds is more promising than where it was last time. Bowers & Wilkins Pi8 Earbuds Photo: Sherri L. Smith/DreamSmith LLC We werent expecting Bowers & Wilkins to make the list of worthy gadgets this month, but the Pi8 wireless earbuds we reviewed are the best Sherri has heard all year. Theyre small, easy to stow, and offer superb audio quality for music and podcasts. Theyre also easier to use than most third-party buds on the market and fit a surprising variety of ear canals.

Collector's House Museum / Atelier DataSave this picture! do mal o menosMuseumMoncarapacho, PortugalArchitects: Atelier DataAreaArea of this architecture projectArea:260 mYearCompletion year of this architecture project Year: 2024 PhotographsPhotographs:do mal o menosMore SpecsLess SpecsSave this picture!Text description provided by the architects. Brief history of the building: The construction of the chapel began in 1750 under the orders of the Franciscans and was completed in 1772 when the congregation gathered the necessary funds for its completion. With the extinction of religious orders in 1834, the building had various uses, including being used as a local "tavern." In 1954, the father of the current owner acquired the building, and in 2002, his son inherited the property. Regarding the future of the building, the current owner, Joo Calada Correia, explains: "Considering the religious history of this building, and the fact that I am an art collector, I believed the best use for it would be to transform it into a museum, thus giving the property a dignified purpose."Save this picture!Save this picture!Project Strategy: Adapting the building into an exhibition space resulted in an intervention that balanced the preservation and restoration of the existing structure with the introduction of newly built elements that accommodate the distinct collections: sacred art, exceptional canes, and ivory paintings. Given the exceptional nature of the pre-existing building: its large nave and its rear courtyard, the project focused on designing a path that is simultaneously an exhibition space, organizing the three collections in a linear and continuous manner: In the main nave (utilizing its walls and niches), the Sacred Art collection is displayed, symbolically reinforcing the origins of the original construction.Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!The Cane collection is distributed along a ramp, an element that takes advantage of the building's verticality. This element was designed as a promenade that "floats and rises" in the space, inciting and stimulating the visitors sense of discovery. Moving forward from this element, over the courtyard space, a third structure is proposed a suspended volume that hosts the Ivory Paintings exhibition, ending with a spiral staircase that brings visitors back to the ground floor, more specifically to the patio at the rear of the former chapel.Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!In order to create a balance between tradition and innovation, the new elements adopt distinct materialities according to the type of art piece being displayed: The ramp is made of a steel structure, covered with metal sheet, and painted white. It is designed modularly and accommodates an extensive number of canes (with an exhibition surface of approximately 45 linear meters). Its modularity also facilitated its installation within the building. In contrast, the suspended exterior volume, which houses the ivory artworks, adopts a totally dark interior, creating a dimly lit, intimate space that invites the viewer to focus on the details of the small pieces on display. The courtyard space and naves main area, on the other hand, recover the typical materials of Algarvean (southern region of Portugal) constructions: terracotta tile flooring, whitewashed walls, and "canudo" tiles on the main roof.Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!The main door to the museum made of wood and painted in a blood-red color replicates the original door model that was previously in place. Finally, the lighting strategy aimed to enhance the unique characteristics of the space, particularly its inherent dramatic atmosphere, reflecting its original function as a place of worship. Regarding natural light, this condition was manipulated through targeted openings that create contrasts between strongly illuminated areas and others in shadow. As for artificial lighting, all efforts were focused on spotlights for the pieces and objects on display, as opposed to general, more homogeneous lighting with lower intensity.Save this picture!Save this picture!Project gallerySee allShow lessProject locationAddress:Moncarapacho, PortugalLocation to be used only as a reference. It could indicate city/country but not exact address.About this officeAtelier DataOfficePublished on January 01, 2025Cite: "Collector's House Museum / Atelier Data" [Museu Casa do Colecionador / Atelier Data] 01 Jan 2025. ArchDaily. Accessed . <https://www.archdaily.com/1024946/collectors-house-museum-atelier-data&gt ISSN 0719-8884Save!ArchDaily?You've started following your first account!Did you know?You'll now receive updates based on what you follow! Personalize your stream and start following your favorite authors, offices and users.Go to my stream

Discover the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures through the Lens of Paul ClemenceSave this picture! Paul ClemenceThis Oscars Season, photographer Paul Clemence turned his lens to the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures, the most famous institution dedicated to the art and science of movies. Designed and revitalized by Gensler and Renzo Piano Building Workshop, the building is located on the famed 'Miracle Mile' in Los Angeles, opening with expansive views towards Hollywood. This year, the museum opened its rooftop terrace for the Oscars Night at the Museum, a unique event to celebrate the 96th Oscars.Save this picture!The Academy Museum opened in 2021 as the first large-scale museum dedicated to cinematography, housing over 13 million objects to showcase and highlight the history, science and cultural impact of the film industry. The design project, which included the revitalization of existing buildings as well as the introduction of new additions, was overseen by Italian architect Renzo Piano. Save this picture!Save this picture!The exterior of the May Company building, now named the Saban Building, underwent extensive refurbishment, including the addition of new limestone and gold leaf tiles. Inside, the museum boasts interactive spaces such as the Spielberg Family Gallery and the Marilyn and Jeffrey Katzenberg Gallery, offering visitors immersive experiences and insights into the world of filmmaking. Related Article Annie Beauchamp on Designing the Overall Visual Look of Movies: "A Designers Work Helps to Drive The Plot" Additionally, a spherical structure was erected as an extension, featuring the glass-domed Dolby Family Terrace and housing two state-of-the-art theater hallsthe 1,000-seat David Geffen Theater and the 288-seat Ted Mann Theaterfor film screenings, programming, and special events.Save this picture!Save this picture! The Academy Museum gives us the opportunity to honor the past while creating a building for the futurein fact, for the possibility of many futures. - Renzo Piano Save this picture!Save this picture!As complex and interdisciplinary art forms, architecture and cinematography share a unique relationship. Through scenography, architecture lends itself to becoming the backdrop of movies, influencing the storytelling through its visual aesthetics. Examples such as Stefan Dechant's design for 'The Tragedy of Macbeth' showcase the need for abstracted environments to capture ideas and concepts, rather than historical contexts, while Jacinta Leong's production design for movies such as '2067', 'Alien: Covenant', or 'Mad Max: Fury Road', reveal how movie architecture has the power to "tell us how things are and how things can be."Save this picture!Save this picture!Editor's Note: This article was originally published on March 11, 2024.Image gallerySee allShow lessAbout this authorCite: Maria-Cristina Florian. "Discover the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures through the Lens of Paul Clemence" 01 Jan 2025. ArchDaily. Accessed . <https://www.archdaily.com/1014370/discover-the-academy-museum-of-motion-pictures-through-the-lens-of-paul-clemence&gt ISSN 0719-8884Save!ArchDaily?You've started following your first account!Did you know?You'll now receive updates based on what you follow! Personalize your stream and start following your favorite authors, offices and users.Go to my stream

Namoncahue House / Schwember Garca-Huidobro ArquitectosSave this picture! Nicols SnchezHousesCunco, ChileArchitects: Schwember Garca-Huidobro ArquitectosAreaArea of this architecture projectArea:5382 ftYearCompletion year of this architecture project Year: 2022 PhotographsPhotographs:Nicols SnchezManufacturersBrands with products used in this architecture project Manufacturers: Alfuego, Ingelam, Volcan Lead Architects: Fernando Garca-Huidobro, lvaro Schwember More SpecsLess SpecsSave this picture!Text description provided by the architects. This house is located on the shores of Lake Colico, in the rainy forests of southern Chile. Here, long rainy winters and a brief, warm summer are experienced. The house is situated on a steep lake shore, the southern shore, which is the ideal orientation for the southern hemisphere, as the sun and views coincide. The land, in turn, has a 40% slope, and its soil consists of a thick layer of vegetation and alluvial fillings.Save this picture!Save this picture!The two main requirements requested by the client were: 1) To design a house on stilts to separate it from the soil's humidity. Given the soil's low capacity, this is achieved by default. 2) To avoid rainwater gutters to avoid maintenance and consider generous eaves that protect windows from rain.Save this picture!Save this picture!The low bearing capacity for foundation, the high slope of the land, and the requirement for a house on stilts led us to propose a four-level house. Rather, four half-levels that integrate the life unfolding in the house in a fluid manner. This integration, sometimes visual, sometimes pedestrian, seeks to build a continuum in family life. On the other hand, the four half-levels also help separate situations that seek distance.Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!These four levels are: The "earth" level, which is the space generated between the natural soil and the elevated floor of the house. This level was given sufficient thickness to accommodate covered outdoor activities, such as a play area, covered parking, and storage rooms.Then, half a floor above, the "fire" level is proposed, where the family gathering spaces are located, such as the living-dining room, game room, kitchen, and barbecue area. This level enjoys great views to the north and integrated spaces.Save this picture!Subsequently, half a floor above, the "middle" level is organized, which integrates the access hall, visit area, and service area. Part of this level is visually integrated into the collective level, overhanging it, and gaining views of the lake.Save this picture!Finally, the upper level, the "dream" level, corresponds to the family bedrooms, which face north and the distant views.Structurally, the house is founded on a linear retaining wall against the hill and on the stilts that penetrate 3 meters under the natural soil. From level 0 upwards, the house is structured entirely in laminated wood pillar and beam frames.Save this picture!Save this picture!At the faade level, the focus has been on decomposing the volume with different treatments in the faade cladding, so that an 11-meter-high house does not seem likeabuilding.Save this picture!Project gallerySee allShow lessAbout this officeMaterialWoodMaterials and TagsPublished on January 01, 2025Cite: "Namoncahue House / Schwember Garca-Huidobro Arquitectos" [Casa Namoncahue / Schwember Garca-Huidobro Arquitectos] 01 Jan 2025. ArchDaily. Accessed . <https://www.archdaily.com/1025149/namoncahue-house-schwember-garcia-huidobro-arquitectos&gt ISSN 0719-8884Save!ArchDaily?You've started following your first account!Did you know?You'll now receive updates based on what you follow! Personalize your stream and start following your favorite authors, offices and users.Go to my stream

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Stack CommerceShareWe may earn revenue from the products available on this page and participate in affiliate programs. Learn more Sound the alarm! Did you hear? 2025 might just be the year youown a MacBook Air. If youre wondering how, its because this refurbished model has had its price tag slashed by over 70 percent. Instead of shelling out the usual $999 for a new model, shopping refurbished lets you grab one for$229.97 with free shipping, but only while supplies last.Let us clear something uprefurbished isnot the same as used! Sure, this MacBook Air had another life before arriving at your doorstep, but its been cleaned and restored, so it comes to you in near-mint condition. Aka, you might not even be able to tell that someones ever used it. But even if there is a slight mark, who cares? Youre paying only a fraction of the retail price!New year, new(ish) MacBookYour dream of having your very own MacBook Air might just come true this year, and youll love that this model is perfect for daily productivity. Use it to check your email, online shop for New Years deals, or do your annual rewatch of theHarry Potter series.Since its a few years old, its not one of those speedy models youve probably seen in Apples latest ads, so we dont recommend downloading high-performance or graphics-intensive games or software. You might run into a few processing issues there.Theres so much more to love about this laptop, aside from the fact that its a MacBook. Check it out:13.3 display with HD graphics so movies and images come to lifeA 128GB capacity for easy local storageUp to 12 hours of battery life on a full chargeWeighs less than three pounds for seamless portabilityAnother bonus? While its an older model, it comes with all the extra ports Apple got rid of in its newer MacBook models.Enter the new year with anear-mint 13.3 MacBook Air, now price-dropped to just$229.97 with free shipping until Jan. 12 at 11:59 p.m. PT. Act while supplies last!StackSocial prices subject to change.Apple MacBook Air 13.3 (2017) 1.8GHz i5 8GB RAM 128GB SSD Silver (Refurbished)Only $229.97 at Popular Science

Nature, Published online: 18 December 2024; doi:10.1038/s41586-024-08515-5Ancient genomes reveal a deep history of treponemal disease in the Americas