
USs wind and solar will generate more power than coal in 2024
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Rolling less coal USs wind and solar will generate more power than coal in 2024 Utility-scale solar generation is up by over 30% amid future uncertainties. John Timmer Jan 27, 2025 3:57 pm | 61 Credit: zhongguo Credit: zhongguo Story textSizeSmallStandardLargeWidth *StandardWideLinksStandardOrange* Subscribers only Learn moreThe Energy Information Agency has now released data on the performance of the US's electric grid over the first 11 months of 2024 and will be adding the final month soon (and a month is very little time for anything to change significantly in the data). The biggest story in the data is the dramatic growth of solar energy, with a 30 percent increase in generation in a single year, which will allow solar and wind combined to overtake coal in 2024.But the US energy demand saw an increase of nearly 3 percent, which is roughly double the amount of additional solar generation. Should electric use continue to grow at a similar pace, renewable production will have to continue to grow dramatically for a few years before it can simply cover the added demand.Going for the SunIn the first 11 months of 2024, the US saw its electrical use grow by 2.8 percent, or roughly 100 Terawatt-hours. While there's typically year-to-year variation in use due to weather-driven demand, the US's consumption has largely been flat since the early 2000s. There are plenty of reasons to expect increased demand, including the growth of data centers and the electrification of heating and transit, but so far, there's been no clear sign of it in the data.As a result, the rapid growth of renewables has largely displaced fossil fuel generationspecifically coalrather than meeting increased demand. Despite the rise in demand, however, the long-term decline in coal has continued in 2024, with generation via coal down by nearly 5 percent. This will mean that this is the first year that wind and solar will combine to outproduce coal. Collectively, they'll account for roughly 17 percent of the US's energy production, while coal will only provide about 15 percent.The boost in wind and solar production has also been larger than the increase in generation from natural gas, which remains the single largest source of power on the grid, generating nearly 44 percent of the electricity used in the US. The fraction of the total US electric use generated by each source of power. The numbers will not add up to 100 percent as some minor sources of power were not included. JOHN TIMMER The fraction of the total US electric use generated by each source of power. The numbers will not add up to 100 percent as some minor sources of power were not included. JOHN TIMMER The total Terawatt-hours generated by different sources of electricity. The total Terawatt-hours generated by different sources of electricity.The fraction of the total US electric use generated by each source of power. The numbers will not add up to 100 percent as some minor sources of power were not included. JOHN TIMMER The total Terawatt-hours generated by different sources of electricity.While wind currently accounts for 60 percent of the "wind plus solar" figure, it's unlikely to stay on top for long. Generation from wind power grew by 7.6 percent compared to the same period a year earlier. By contrast, utility-scale solar generation increased by 31 percent over that same period, with small-scale solar (including rooftop installations) estimated to have increased by 15 percent.Adding in hydropower and a handful of minor sources like geothermal brings the total renewable electricity generated in the first 11 months of 2024 up to 23 percent of the total demand. Adding in nuclear to get the total of emissions-free generation brings the total up to 41 percentjust shy of the 44 percent produced by natural gas.A complicated futureAnother way to look at things is that, between the decline of coal use and added demand, the grid had to generate an additional 136 TW-hr in the first 11 months of 2024. Sixty-three of those were handled by an increase in generation using natural gas; the rest, or slightly more than half, came from emissions-free sources. So, renewable power is now playing a key role in offsetting demand growth. While that's a positive, it also means that renewables are displacing less fossil fuel use than they might.In addition, some of the growth of small-scale solar won't show up on the grid, since it offset demand locally, and so also reduced some of the demand for fossil fuels. Confusing matters, this number can also include things like community solar, which does end up on the grid; the EIA doesn't break out these numbers.We can expect next year's numbers to also show a large growth in solar production, as the EIA says that the US saw record levels of new solar installations in 2024, with 37 gigawatts of new capacity. Since some of that came online later in the year, it'll produce considerably more power next year. And, in its latest short-term energy analysis, the EIA expects to see over 20 GW of solar capacity added in each of the next two years. New wind capacity will push that above 30 GW of renewable capacity each of these years. The past few years of solar installations have led to remarkable growth in its power output. Credit: John Timer That growth will, it's expected, more than offset continued growth in demand, although that growth is expected to be somewhat slower than we saw in 2024. It also predicts about 15 GW of coal will be removed from the grid during those two years. So, even without any changes in policy, we're likely to see a very dynamic grid landscape over the next few years.But changes in policy are almost certainly on the way. The flurry of executive orders issued by the Trump administration includes a number of energy-related changes. These include defining "energy" in a way that excludes wind and solar, an end to offshore wind leasing and the threat to terminate existing leases, and a re-evaluation of the allocation of funds from some of the Biden administration's energy-focused laws.In essence, this sets up a clash among economics, state policies, and federal policy. Even without any subsidies, wind and solar are the cheapest ways to produce electricity in much of the US. In addition, a number of states have mandates that will require the use of more renewable energy. At the same time, the permitting process for the plants and their grid connections will often require approvals at the federal level, and it appears to be official policy to inhibit renewables when possible. And a number of states are also making attempts to block new renewable power installations.It's going to be a challenging period for everyone involved in renewable energy.John TimmerSenior Science EditorJohn TimmerSenior Science Editor John is Ars Technica's science editor. He has a Bachelor of Arts in Biochemistry from Columbia University, and a Ph.D. in Molecular and Cell Biology from the University of California, Berkeley. When physically separated from his keyboard, he tends to seek out a bicycle, or a scenic location for communing with his hiking boots. 61 Comments
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