By Isaac Schultz Published February 20, 2025 | Comments (1) | 2024 YR4 as seen by the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope. Image: ESO/O. Hainaut et al. The potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4 caused consternation over the last few weeks as its odds of hitting Earth in 2032 dramatically rose. Now, those odds have plummeted to near-zero, as astronomers calculations of the asteroids path have been updated to indicate that Earth is almost certainly not in the space rocks plans. Almost. According to NASAs Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), the asteroids current chance of hitting the planet in 2032 is 0.28%, or a 1-in-360 shot. That is a far cry from just earlier this week, when models had the asteroids impact probability at a staggering 3.1%, or 1-in-32 odds. Its safe to say were out of the woodsbut perhaps still in the backyard of uncertainty? A beleaguered analogy, but suffice it to say that the odds are not zerobut the sudden plummet from such a (relatively) high probability is a sigh of relief. Though 2024 YR4 isnt a gigantic asteroidits size estimates range from 130 to 300 feet wide (40 to 90 meters)it still is large enough to destroy a large city or region if hit Earth. It just wouldnt cause a global cataclysm. Hardly reassuring stuff. The asteroids impact probability made it a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures the danger posed by asteroids. Torino 3s have a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction, according to CNEOS. Since the asteroids impact odds are now 1-in-360, the asteroids Torino risk is rated 1, meaning a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. When 2024 YR4s odds rose earlier this week, it became more hazardous than the head-turning asteroid Apophis, which was one of the most hazardous asteroids when discovered in 2004, but was found in 2021 to not be at risk of hitting Earth for at least a century.The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first spotted 2024 YR4 just after Christmas, when the rock was 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) from Earth. Within a month, the asteroids odds crept up to a 1.2% chancewhich sounds small, but is still a serious number when were talking about the chances of an asteroid with the potential to raze an entire city or region on our verdant little world. The odds kept growing, from a 1.58% chance of impact on February 2 to a 2.2% chance of striking on February 10. But as experts told Gizmodo, this steady movement in the odds was expected. Thats because, as astronomers narrowed the range of potential paths for the asteroid, Earth remained in it. So while the total pool of paths shrank, Earths placement in the path meant its footprint covered more of the total possible area. Now, the asteroids potential path window has shrunk enough that it seems very unlikely that the rock will hit Earth.The asteroid is moving away from Earth, but will swing by the planet in 2028 with a first potential impact in 2032. By April, astronomers expect the asteroid to be too faint for even the largest ground-based telescopes to see, so it was critical for researchers to make as many observations of the object as possible before thentime was of the essence to make educated guesses about its impact probability. 2024 YR4 still poses the slightest risk to Earth within the next 100 years, but recent estimates from space agency experts suggest theres much less to worry about now.Daily NewsletterYou May Also Like By Adam Kovac Published February 19, 2025 By Isaac Schultz Published February 19, 2025 By Isaac Schultz Published February 18, 2025 By Isaac Schultz Published February 17, 2025 By Isaac Schultz Published February 17, 2025 By Passant Rabie Published February 12, 2025