Earthquakes and secondary disasters like landslides and tsunamis can devastate regions, leaving lasting impacts for years. Beyond the immediate harm to individuals and infrastructure, these events disrupt essential services, alter landscapes, and place a significant economic burden on affected areas.Major earthquakes in the last two decades, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, the 2011 Japan earthquake, and the 2023 Turkey - Syria earthquake, have highlighted the urgent need for better forecasting methods. More accurate predictions could help authorities prepare affected regions and implement timely evacuation plans.A recent study from the University of Tsukuba and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Japan, published in Chaos, examined the suns impact on seismic activity. The researchers suggest incorporating solar heat data into earthquake forecasting models could enhance prediction accuracy.How Earthquake Forecasting WorksAt present, the precise timing and location of earthquakes cannot be predicted. However, seismologists, scientists who study seismic waves and earthquakes, can estimate the likelihood of an earthquake occurring in a given area based on various factors.Typically, experts assess the historical frequency of seismic activity, analyze geological records for evidence of past ruptures, examine the relationship between smaller and larger earthquakes, and study aftershock patterns. The more data available, the better the forecasts.Read More: Chasing the Dream of Earthquake PredictionUnderstanding the Cause of EarthquakesBy studying past events, scientists understand that earthquakes occur when tectonic plates shift, causing strain energy to accumulate. Eventually, this energy is released in the form of seismic activity. However, forecasting earthquakes remains a complex challenge, as many contributing factors are still not fully understood.To refine their models, researchers have begun exploring external influences on seismic activity. Some studies suggest that tidal forces and electromagnetic effects from celestial bodies, such as the moon and the sun, may play a role.Previously, the Tsukuba research team identified a correlation between sunspot numbers and seismic activity on Earth. However, the underlying mechanism driving this connection remained unclear. Their latest hypothesis suggests that the Suns heat may be a key factor.The Role of Solar Heat in EarthquakesBy applying mathematical models and computational techniques, the researchers compared earthquake occurrences with solar activity and temperature variations on Earth's surface. Their analysis showed that factoring in temperature shifts improved the accuracy of earthquake forecasts, particularly for shallow seismic events.Solar heat drives atmospheric temperature changes, which in turn can affect factors like rock properties and underground water movement, explained study author Matheus Henrique Junqueira Saldanha in a press release. Such fluctuations can make rocks more brittle and prone to fracturing, for example and changes in rainfall and snowmelt can alter the pressure on tectonic plate boundaries. While these factors may not be the main drivers of earthquakes, they could still be playing a role that can help to predict seismic activity. The findings indicate that while solar heat transfer to Earths surface does influence seismic activity, its impact remains relatively small. However, incorporating solar activity predictions into detailed Earth temperature models could still provide valuable insights for earthquake forecasting.Its an exciting direction, and we hope our study sheds some light on the bigger picture of what triggers earthquakes, said Junqueira Saldanha in the release.This research represents a promising step toward better earthquake predictions. While more studies are needed to confirm the extent of solar heats influence, integrating this factor into existing models could improve our ability to anticipate seismic events and mitigate their impact.Article SourcesOur writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:California Institute of Technology. Can Seismologists Predict Earthquakes?Having worked as a biomedical research assistant in labs across three countries, Jenny excels at translating complex scientific concepts ranging from medical breakthroughs and pharmacological discoveries to the latest in nutrition into engaging, accessible content. Her interests extend to topics such as human evolution, psychology, and quirky animal stories. When shes not immersed in a popular science book, youll find her catching waves or cruising around Vancouver Island on her longboard.