The UKs Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) spent a great deal of time deciding whether it should investigate Microsofts investment in OpenAI as a potential merger situation, but in the end, decided to open and close the investigation within 24 hours.In explaining why the the investigation was closed so quickly, Joel Bamford, CMA executive director, wrote in a LinkedIn post, looking at the evidence in the round (including the recent changes), we have found that there has not been a change of control by Microsoft from material influence to de facto control over OpenAI. Because this change of control has not happened, the partnership in its current form does not qualify for review under the UKs merger control regime.However, he wrote, the CMAs findings on jurisdiction should not be read as the partnership being given a clean bill of health on potential competition concerns; but the UK merger control regime must of course operate within the remit set down by Parliament.Recent changes in relationship helpedThe CMA, he wrote, engaged directly and constructively with executives at Microsoft and OpenAI throughout the process, carefully reviewing both companies operations and documents as the partnership continued to evolve.According to Bamford, the changing nature of the arrangements between Microsoft and OpenAI during the course of our investigation added a further layer of complexity in what is already a rapidly evolving sector. As recently as January 2025, Microsoft announced a change to its contractual rights in relation to supply of compute capacity, which reduced OpenAIs reliance on Microsoft.Phil Brunkard, executive counselor at Info-Tech Research Group UK, said that perhaps OpenAIs plans with Project Stargate, its gradual distancing from Microsoft, and Microsofts scaling down of its plans for building AI infrastructure were just the levers the CMA needed to close the investigation.The CMA, he said, recognizes that they need to address the Pace, Predictability, Proportionality, and Process of their merger investigations. For the AI market, perhaps they need to consider which of those factors is most important.Pace, said Brunkard, is important because businesses and investors need guidance in the current climate, but that is challenging when the AI market is unpredictable, as we have seen with the shifting dynamic between Microsoft and OpenAI.As regulators, he said, they need to give guidance at a pace that is in proportion to degrees of confidence in what they are assessing. Overdo the process and decisions take too long, as we can see in this instance, leading to a so what when the decision is eventually made.The CMA, added Brunkard, admitted this took a long time because of the degree of complexity (predictability), the changing nature of the arrangements and how they operate in practice (pace), and the mutual desire for open dialogue between the CMA and the companies to ensure [they] understood these developments over time (proportionality), has led to an exceptionally extended period of review (process).The changing of any of those dynamics, he said, enhances the ability of the UK regulator to make a quicker decision on the cases it reviews.Ritu Jyoti, group vice president of the worldwide AI, automation, data and analytics research practice at IDC, said she thinks too much is being read into Microsofts cancellation of data center leases. Per my understanding, they have reiterated that its sticking to its plan to allocate more than $80 billion of its cash to capital expenditures this fiscal year, which ends in June. I know they have also clarified that they are looking at it strategically and adjusting their infrastructure in some areas, she said.Similarly, on the Stargate project, said Jyoti, heres their official statement: Microsoft and OpenAI evolve partnership to drive the next phase of AI The Official Microsoft Blog. I would not speculate more than this.She said that the last paragraph of the official statement is important; it indicates that in some ways, the altered agreement is a win-win. It reads:In addition to this, OpenAI recently made a new, large Azure commitment that will continue to support all OpenAI products as well as training. This new agreement also includes changes to the exclusivity on new capacity, moving to a model where Microsoft has a right of first refusal (ROFR). To further support OpenAI, Microsoft has approved OpenAIs ability to build additional capacity, primarily for research and training of models.In addition, Brunkard said, investments alone dont guarantee business value. We can all use Copilot and see some efficiency gains, but does that move the bottom line? AIs future is inevitable, but outside of a few niche areas, ROI is a big question mark. Thats the real challenge here not just keeping up with the pace, but figuring out what actually matters when the dust settles.