Why does Air Force One take so long to replace? Its not just bureaucracy.
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Late last month, President Donald Trump sent out a volley of social media posts and statements critiquing Boeing for its failure to deliver a new Air Force One. The latest iteration of the storied presidential flying fortress was supposed to take to the skies in 2024, but a bumbling series of delays, miscalculations, and missteps have pushed that date back. The setbacks reportedly forced Boeing to absorb more than $2.5 billion losses for a project with an initial price tag of $3.9 billion. Aviation experts speaking with Popular Scienceagreed to the contract in 2018. But making Air Force One isnt for the faint of heart. The one-of-a-kind vehicle is built to withstand a nuclear blast and serve as a mobile White House during times of war. As former US News & World Report White House Correspondent Kenneth Walsh explains in his book Air Force One, the presidents modified 747 jumbo jet is quite possibly the most unusual plane ever built.Heres why Air Force One takes so long to build.What makes Air Force One different?From the outside, the presidents plane doesnt look all that different from a commercial 747 jet, save the large United States of America text stretching along its side. The real differences are under the hood.Aviation expert and American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow Todd Harrison says the jet is equipped with advanced encryption capabilities that enable prolonged, secure communications from anywhere in the world. Additionally, the plane has shielding over every bit of its wiring and electronics to protect it from a potential electromagnetic pulse, such as one caused by a nuclear weapon. The plane also has state of the art navigation systems and a self-contained baggage loader. Though it does not have offensive weapons capabilities, Harrison says the plane is outfitted with defensive countermeasures that can intercept Stingers or other portable missile systems. Theres no evidence these countermeasures have ever been used.Its one of those things where you are 99% sure youll never need to use [defensive capabilities], but in the moment you did, it would be worth every penny, Harrison said. Get the Popular Science newsletter Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. By signing up you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.Air Force One also looks remarkably different from a commercial airliner on the inside. As Walsh recounts in his book, the planes interior features far more plush and spacious accommodations than a commercial equivalent. The presidential suite alone reportedly includes a large desk and two couches that can be converted into beds. According to Walsh, the current 747 model comfortably accommodates two pilots, a navigator, a flight engineer, 26 crew members, and 76 passengers. Its also capable of mid-air refueling, meaning the mobile command centerwhich ordinarily has a maximum range of around 9,000 milescould theoretically stay in the air for days at a time with proper refueling.L: President Reagan inside the cockpit of Air Force One with the pilots and crew in 1982. Image: Reagan Presidential LibraryR: President Obama plays with his dog, Bo, onboard Air Force One in 2011. Image: Official White House Photo by Pete SouzaHow much does Air Force One cost?Air Force One has undergone numerous alterations and upgrades over the better part of the past century. The first official plane to carry the Air Force One designation dates back to 1953, during President Dwight D. Eisenhowers administration. Eisenhower initially flew in two Lockheed (C-121) Constellations nicknamed Columbine II and Columbine III that received the formal designation Air Force One before moving onto the more widely recognized Boeing 707 model.Lockheed VC-121E Columbine III in the Presidential Gallery at the National Museum of the United States Air Force. Image: U.S. Air Force photo by Ken LaRock The Boeing aircraft carried 18 crew members and 50 passengers, according to Walsh. It jolted around the globe at a cruising speed of 580 miles per hour but was capable of hitting 650 mph if pushed. Various upgrades over the next three decades introduced improved communication equipment and other modern amenities, such as color televisions and enhanced refrigeration. That last addition was made to ensure everyone onboard could eat food that originated in the US, even on long trips, Walsh notes.Top: President Ford and the First Lady disembark the Boeing 707 Air Force One upon their arrival in Austria in 1975. Bottom: President Richard Nixon speaks with military and civilian leadersbehind the bar on Air Force One in 1969. Images: Wally McNamee/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty ImagesThe 707 model was replaced with the current 747 jumbo jet frame in 1990 during the George H. W. Bush administration. This newer model is faster, fancier, and far more expensive to maintain and operate. To put the price in perspective, Walsh notes that the average cost to operate Air Force One in the 1950s was roughly $348 per hour. That shot up to around $1,995 per hour during Lyndon Johnsons administration. In 2021, the Air Force disclosed it cost approximately $177,843 per flight hour to operate its two Air Force One jets.Inflation can account for only part of the staggering rise in costs. Harrison says the hefty price tag is largely due to the aircrafts unique technical specifications and extreme redundancies required to keep it secure. Much of this requires highly specialized touch labor that drives up costs further. Air Force One also spends much more time in the sky now than in past generations. Under the Eisenhower administration, Walsh estimates Air Force One flew approximately 308,402 total miles. Thats compared to more than 1.4 million miles flown during the eight years Bill Clinton was Commander in Chief.But the current Air Force One model is beginning to show its age. AeroDynamic Advisory managing director Richard Aboulafia told Popular Science that if these jets were part of a commercial airline fleet, they would have been retired long ago, as commercial aircraft typically accumulate far more miles than the presidents fleet. At 35 years old, Aboulafia says the current Air Force One planes could likely continue flying safely for some time with proper care and maintenance. The bigger issue, he notes, is the challenge of sourcing parts and materials for the aging aircraft.At some point, you have to worry about the orphan or obsolete supply chain, Aboulafia said.Those concerns were part of the motivation for Trump to negotiate a contract for two new jets in 2018 during his first term. Since then, Boeing has faced a string of production delays, some of which Aboulafia attributes to an embarrassing level of incompetence at the company. Harrison echoed that general point, and said it seemed like Boeing may not put enough workers on the project early enough to meet the presidents ambitious 2024 deadline. (Former Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun has said publicly that he regretted agreeing to President Trumps deal).Harrison said the Trump camp could have put in place a penalty in the contract for every month Boeing failed to deliver as an added economic incentive. Not that any of this has been particularly money-making for Boeing. The Air Force One contract was a fixed-price agreement, which means Boeing has had to eat all the cost associated with the project that exceeded the original $3.9 billion deal.I wouldnt think it would be physically possible to lose several billion on two aircraft, Aboulafia jests. What do you do, just feed bank notes directly into the engines?Boeing did not immediately respond to Popular Sciences request for comment.Why a private plane isnt a viable optionPresident Trump, realizing the pair of new 747-8 planes might not be completed by the time he leaves office, has suggested sidestepping Boeing altogether and modifying a used private jet instead.The suggestion to sidestep Boeing entirely and convert a used aircraft could face several challenges, experts said. The extensive modifications required to make such an aircraft capable of functioning as the presidents plane would essentially mean starting from scratcha process Boeing has already been working through for years. As a result, a converted used jet could potentially take even longer to become airworthy than the two 747-8 models currently in production.Honestly, at this point, any changes you make are likely to make it take longer and cost more even if youre reducing capabilities, Harrison said.It [a converted plane] just wouldnt be anywhere near as capable as the Air Force Ones we have today, Aboulafia added.There are also reports that Trump and Department of Government Efficiency ally Elon Musk are exploring ways to lower security clearance standards and other constraints for Boeing employees to accelerate production. But that approach introduces risk. The Trump administrations previous efforts to cut costs and expedite delivery of the Air Force One aircraft have already resulted in a major reduction in capabilities. Unlike the previous version of Air Force One, the new model wont be capable of mid-air refueling. Harrison warned that this omission alone poses a major security risk in situations where the president needs to remain airborne for extended periods. Additional cuts or shortcuts could introduce even more challenges.You dont know how long youre going to need to stay airborne with aerial refueling, Harrison said. Now theyre going to have a limited number of hours before they have to land and refuel.What happens next?Experts agreed that it seems increasingly unlikely the two new Boeing 747-8 planes will take off before the end of Trumps second term with current specifications. The president could, in theory, cancel the contract with Boeing and commit to modifying another aircraft but that will also take time and potentially cost billions more in public funding to accomplish. Boeings struggles to deliver may, however, crack the door open for newer competitors to play a role in future Air Force One upgrades.While there are no major manufacturer alternatives outside of the European-owned Airbus for producing the planes exterior shell, experts say other competing aircraft engineering firms could take on a more significant role in designing the internal systems of future aircraft. Sierra Nevada, a top Boeing competitor, has already secured a $13 billion contract to create the Air Forces new Survivable Airborne Operations Center. This aircraft, intended to maintain military command operations during a nuclear war, is colloquially known as the doomsday plane.In the end, the high costs and long production times associated with Air Force One are the result of creating a truly unique vehicle where history-altering events regularly take place. Air Force One was where President Eisenhower signed into law legislation creating the CIA and Department of Defense. It was also where President Johnson swore the oath of office to become president just hours after President John F. Kennedys assassination. Countless diplomatic speeches and classified international communications have been conducted onboard the plane over its 66 year history. Facilitating all of that requires painstakingly complex engineering.This story is part of Popular SciencesAsk Us Anything series, where we answer your most outlandish, mind-burning questions, from the ordinary to the off-the-wall. Have something youve always wanted to know?Ask us.
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