Why iPhone-as-a-service may make sense as tariffs bite Apple
It might be time forApple-as-a-service as the company looks toplot a cunning coursethrough the post-globalist freeze and offering its products as a service could help it do just that.Apple had beenexpected to introduce just such a service. In fact,Mark Gurmanrecently said those plans were quite advanced, but the company shelved the idea, presumably because of its potential impact on normal iPhone sales and consequent revenue.With the recent round of tariffs from US President Donald J. Trump,things have changed. Given a$3,000 iPhonehas become a real possibility under the tax regime, Apple knows its going to see a decline in iPhone sales anyway. It knows that those iPhones it does sell will get used longer and it knows that the inevitable cost will put a lot of consumers off from buying these devices.Apple has also bought itself some time to figure out a way forward, thanks to the planeloads of iPhones it imported into the US just before thetariff announcement was made. These should tide the company over into September, reports claim. That makes sense, because the time isnt right for the iPhone-as-a-service plan quite yet.To put the plan in effect, Apple will need the support of its carrier partners who I expect were quite resistant to the idea before they liked the margins they made on phones sold through their networks.However, pragmatism changes things, and even they can see that some money from a lower margin is still better than no margin at all. And when analysts predict iPhone prices could hit $3,000, its crystal clear sales will decline.Think about itThose tariff taxes will impact almost everything that cannot be made, grown, or harvested in the US. Theyre going to be felt, particularly by shoppers in more impoverished socio-economic groups (who also use iPhones). Most shoppers will be much too concerned about thecost of eggsto spring thousands for a phone, and while there will be an elite group of consumers for whom its business as usual, most people will endure acrisis of confidence.Like the 1920s, there may be a lot of dancing, but not much to dance about.The economic precipice the world appears to have been pushed over may be enough to make any iPhone-as-a-service plan look a lot more attractive. After all, it enables cash-strapped consumers to use the smartphone they desire (and perhaps also the watch, tablet, and Mac) for apredictable monthly fee, with AppleCare, iCloud+, and Apple services included, and doesnt require they laden themselves with credit card debt.People are ready to accept itIts not as if were not ready for such a service. Even back in 2022, CIRP Partner and Co-FounderJosh Lowitz said: Based on current consumer behavior, iPhone users are primed to adopt a subscription service that provides an iPhone bundled with useful apps. Almost half iPhone owners already finance their iPhone purchase, paying monthly for a new phone. And about one-third trade-in their old phone when they buy a new one. So, a significant portion of the user base is accustomed to never owning a phone, instead basically leasing it.Apple also gains. In this case, it benefits from potentially lower, but at least recurring, income upon which to balance its stock. And it benefits from the fact that at the end of the subscription period (or during it if the consumer cannot maintain payments), the devices will be returned for refurbishment, resale/let, and/or recycling.This also opens up thehighly lucrative second-user iPhone market, which is an income stream Apple hasnt yet fully explored. The iPhone is the most widely sold smartphone on the second-user market and holds its value the longest; company management is said to have been eyeing whether they can extract more from those sales.Pros and joesTaking things a speculative step forward, I can easily imagine the company might choose to keep the highest-end devices out of the subscription loop, making these available for sale only. Apple knows its most affluent customersmay be more acceptingof a higher pricein exchange for a truly cutting-edge product.That balance of high-end retail sales and subscription-income, bolstered by all the other plans Apple is putting in place to survive the high-tax transformation of the US economy may help it build a good and viable business in times like these. A different business, but a business all the sameWill Apple do it? Will Apple choose to offer up its products on a rental basis?Given sales cadence is going to fall anyway and, logically, product costs will increase, the company might see the plan as a way to pass the poison pill of some of these price increases onto consumers in as easy-to-stomach a remedy as possible. Its not ideal, of course, but right now company management will be focused on finding the least worse options to help support the future of its business. Thats the context in which such a plan makes sense.You can follow me on social media! Join me onBlueSky, LinkedIn, andMastodon.