Since the Trump administration rolled out its first rounds of tariffs in March, sudden announcements and equally quick rollbacks have created an unpredictable market for manufacturers and vendors of sustainable building products like lumber and aluminum. “For supply chain logistics, the quick announcements and quick rollouts are a stress factor for anyone involved in the chain,” said Rick Arrington, production planner at Texas-based custom lumber mill Delta Millworks. “The loggers don’t know, the sawmills don’t know, the distributors don’t know. It’s uncertainty across the board.” So far, lumber imports from Canada have generally been exempted from tariffs, but later this year, the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to raise countervailing and anti-subsidy duties on Canadian softwood from 14.5 percent to 34.5 percent. New tariffs are disrupting supply chain logistics in the building industry, including at manufacturers such as Delta Millworks. (Sarah Mellet) Manufacturers across industries are now in wait-and-see mode. As things may change from one day to the next, both short- and long-term consequences are difficult to predict, they say. But some have already had to adjust. Price Hikes Delta Millworks, which creates made-to-order products, has already hiked its prices on western red cedar and western hemlock, even though the increased tariffs aren’t in effect yet. The risk for potential additional levies is behind it, Robbie Davis, the lumber mill’s CEO, told AN. “With uncertainty like this, we have to assume the tariffs are already in place based on the supply of these specialty products,” he said. 3form, a materials company out of Salt Lake City, sources its resin from the U.S. but imports some of its other materials. Marketing director Chris Pales said that the company has seen increased prices on some of the materials it sources. Now, he noted, the tariffs have required 3form to consider where to source materials from. The key question here, Pales said, is: “Are there alternative suppliers, whether domestic or international, that can help us maintain the same quality materials and products while also offering a price point that makes sense for everyone?” The cost of aluminum on the global market has gone up in the wake of the 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel that went into effect in March. However, Ray Shelton, chief sustainability and communications officer at low-carbon aluminum product manufacturer YKK AP, said he does not believe that price increases will impact supply sources. Most of the aluminum imported to the U.S. comes from Canada, and for nearly a century, there has been an integrated supply chain of the material, explained Duncan Pitchford, president of Hydro Aluminum Metals USA and head of commercial Americas. He added that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which went into effect in 2020, stabilized the North American aluminum supply chain. “We would like to see that stability maintained going forward. The current situation, of course, disrupts that,” Pitchford said. Canadian mass timber construction company StructureCraft remains optimistic about the future of the country’s wood industry despite current fluctuations and uncertainty in the market. “We are feeling very confident about the future of our industry. We’re seeing growth in adoption of mass timber across many project types,” said the company’s manager of business development and preconstruction, Gerald Epp. The White House has argued tariffs will bring back manufacturing to the U.S. Whether domestic production of lumber and aluminum goods will increase remains to be seen, however. “I don’t think you could just switch gears and say, ‘Let’s procure low-carbon aluminum in the U.S.’ Whether it’s low-carbon aluminum or normal aluminum, America currently doesn’t have the capacity to supply the demand that America has,” Shelton noted. Mass timber plants keep popping up across the U.S., creating affordable timber products.(Courtesy TimberLab) The European Connection Today’s premier lumber manufacturers also depend on European technology, said Chris Evans, president of Timberlab, an Oregon-based construction company and manufacturer of engineered wood products. Tariffs on things like steel, machinery, and other equipment from Europe could slow the growth of the American lumber industry. Still, mass timber plants keep popping up across the nation, creating affordable timber products, he argued. “That’s translating into better price stability, and then more of these mass timber buildings coming into the market and replacing concrete and steel buildings on commercial projects,” he said. The tariffs, Evans added, could be a good motivator to build up lumber manufacturing in the U.S. at a time when forests are growing crowded; using small-diameter trees to make cross-laminated timber, for example, would thin out forests and reduce wildfire risks. Specialty wood products, like those made by Delta Millworks, can often only be sourced from certain locations in the world, but European thermal and chemical modification technologies required for such products are being introduced in the U.S. to be used on native trees. Delta Millworks currently partners with Finnish manufacturer Lunawood to bring its thermal technology to the U.S. to be used on domestic wood. But this also highlights a benefit domestic manufacturing can reap from open intercontinental trade, said Arrington. “This is a product of the import relationship we have with this European country. I think it’s important to see how it all connects.” Oscar Fock is an award-winning freelance journalist based in New York City, where he reports on climate change, its effects on humans, and how we are responding.