Apple executives will certainly be hoping that raw materials and components intended for use in the iPhone 17 will remain available despite the politically driven trade war with China. They can see that while what they promise will be exciting for Apple’s customers, getting the components together and manufacturing the devices is more challenging than ever. There’s a lot at stake. This is, after all, allegedly set to be the biggest iPhone upgrade in years. What to expect from the iPhone 17 range The devices are expected to host a faster A19 Pro 3nm processor and significant camera improvements. Those include a 48MP camera to replace the current 12MP rear camera unit sitting on a larger camera island, as well as a 24MP front-facing camera. With the exception of the new, thin, iPhone 17 Air model, the new iPhones may be slightly thicker than today, thanks to a much larger-capacity battery that supports reverse wireless charging.  You’ll see Apple’s C-series 5G modems begin to proliferate across the iPhone range, potentially with a C2 variant with slightly wider 5G band support. Software improvements will include iOS 19, which is also being billed as a huge change in the system and the introduction (we hope) of contextually aware Apple Intelligence.  Roll it all together and you have the biggest iPhone redesign for years, including the introduction of iPhone Air, all supported by new modems and Apple AI. With new folding iPhones anticipated for release in the next year or so, the stage is set for a new generation of iPhone sales, with new designs and reinvigorated operating systems all supported by an AI that means you can get more done with the computer in your pocket. Trouble at the mill Except for one thing: component supply. Now, it’s easy to mistake the iPhone as comprising solely the components inside those devices, but that’s to miss the parts included elsewhere in the ecosystem. That includes incredibly expensive and hard to get tools for component manufacture (including processor manufacturing) and also includes the components and rare earth materials used across the supporting ecosystem — all those Apple Intelligence servers need components too. The problem here is that trade agreements continue to unravel worldwide as political will coalesces to express itself as a self-harming rejection of aspects of globalism. That unravelling has a multitude of faces, from limited exports of rare earth materials to tariffs on components that can only be made in one part of the world. While many of these challenges can be solved by sourcing elsewhere or throwing money at the problem, their impact will be to build in additional frustration and delay inside the Apple component supply chain. We know this is already impacting the company as it has reportedly flown iPhones into the US in huge quantities to slip past the tariffs.  Complex components Apple won’t be able to just do the same thing with the iPhone 17 series. In part that’s because they aren’t being manufactured in quantity quite yet, though I imagine production will begin in June and also think we’ll see more models than ever before flying to the US from India. But it’s not just about US tariffs, it’s also about international response to those tariffs. Open up an iPhone and you’ll find raw materials and components that come from all around the world, and many of those nations — including China — seem a little upset at how they feel they have been treated recently. They are articulating this in their own ways: China’s move to limit exports of rare earths will have a particular impact on smartphone manufacturing, though China is not the only nation to respond to these taxes. That’s likely to make life quite difficult for a company that likes to create new hardware using cutting-edge material science and advanced manufacturing processes. Even if iPhone components ship in quantity, items used in the manufacture of those parts may be limited in some way. I’ve even seen one fairly weak claim that suggests the company is already experiencing problems as a result of WTW1 (World Trade War 1).  Along with manufacturing bottlenecks, the new post-globalist tradeoff era will be defined by price. When it comes to iPhones, Apple may be able to swallow some of the additional costs on the strength of the money it is saving on licensing fees to Qualcomm for the 5G modems it has used until now. Those savings may enable Apple to mitigate some of the cost but won’t mitigate all of it. In practice, while I think Apple will maintain good prices on some models, others — principally the iPhone 17 Air — seem likely to come in at reassuringly expensive prices, with Apple management sensibly thinking its highest-end customers are the least price sensitive and will buy the best all the same. While the iPhone 17 will no doubt be the best iPhone yet and the new design will no doubt impress, it hits a market in turmoil and to some extent existentially articulates the challenges of a politically fragmented world.  You can follow me on social media! Join me on BlueSky,  LinkedIn, and Mastodon.