The Trump administration is apparently now putting pressure on Apple to stop developing an iPhone manufacturing ecosystem in India and bring the iPhone factories to the US instead.  With that in mind, let’s do a little thought experiment:  What would happen if Apple decided to move iPhone manufacturing to the US today? Nothing much to start with The first thing, of course, is that nothing would happen. Nothing could possibly happen that isn’t happening already. It can’t. You can’t magic this kind of iPhone manufacturing capacity out of thin air overnight. The factories don’t exist, the production equipment they need hasn’t been built yet, the land to put factories on hasn’t been purchased or even identified, the infrastructure around those sites hasn’t been upgraded to handle the inevitable traffic, the staff have not been recruited or trained, and Apple’s production partners would need to be convinced to deploy factories to America. The company would also need to build a logistical system to import components and precious metals that the US does not have or cannot supply. (And, yes, recycling and a circular manufacturing system would help with that.) How long do those problems take to solve?  We have a glimmer of an idea of how long it takes just by calculating the length of time it has taken for Apple to be able to shift about 20% of its iPhone manufacturing to India. Building production capacity to that point has taken a decade, and while iPhone manufacturing partners are rapidly expanding on this, obstacles to completely replacing China in the manufacturing chain remain.  If the US were willing to provide at least equivalent subsidies to help Apple and its partners set up shop in America as India has done to nurture industrial development there, then the best-case scenario says it would take at least another decade for Apple to shift production capacity to the US. At what price? But there would be other consequences of making such a move. India, which is a growing market for Apple, would not take it kindly, and sales growth there would shrink. Apple’s old partners in China would also be upset, which would cause even more Chinese consumers to abandon iPhones. (It matters that sales of foreign-brand smartphones in China are down 50%.) Losing face in those markets would damage Apple’s bottom line — consumers there would reject the company as a response to feeling rejected themselves — even as investing to build production capacity in the US would generate additional costs. And, of course, the cost of American labor is higher. The cumulative impact would be lower sales, higher costs, and inevitably lower revenue. Apple generating less money isn’t just a problem for Apple, it’s a problem for America, too. Apple is one of the biggest corporate taxpayers in the US, and the US government, military, and economy needs those tax dollars to keep rolling. The actual cost of transitioning manufacturing to the US wouldn’t just mean that Apple has to charge $3,000 per iPhone, it would also mean the US receives lower taxes. How does that make sense? For what benefit? Would it create jobs? That’s doubtful. The cost of labor and the shortage of key skills in the US would make it mandatory for these US iPhone factories to be highly automated. That would mean fewer manufacturing jobs than hoped for. There would be some, but not hundreds of thousands of them, and the increased cost of Apple products would inevitably make for more expensive devices, itself generating lower revenues. There is a sensible course of action, one that does create jobs and lays a strategic path toward US economic dominance in future.  That is to encourage Apple to site its high-value, cutting-edge product manufacturing facilities in the US. It makes sense to do this — Apple Vice President Eddy Cue told us why when he said that we cannot be certain people will still be buying iPhones in ten years’ time. (Ironically, that means that by the time the first US factories come online to produce iPhones, demand for the products they create may collapse.) Think in the long term The most sensible course is to invest in the skills, technologies, manufacturing capacity, component supply, and logistical support it takes to build the next generation of tech products, rather than cannibalizing demand for the ones that are selling like crazy today. Apple is already doing exactly this — it’s what its promised $500 billion investment in the US over the next four years represents. That huge pile of cash is being spent on the next-generation technologies that will drive the rest of this ‘American century.’ That’s where the Trump administration should be supporting Apple’s efforts. Creating the ecosystem for the future is the way forward, not decimating an already successful business model that already benefits the nation. As Steve Jobs used to say, quoting hockey great Wayne Gretzky: skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. You can follow me on social media! Join me on BlueSky,  LinkedIn, and Mastodon.