This week in prediction markets, Donald Trump Jr. somehow managed to secure himself a seat on both sides of the table. The man has officially joined the advisory ranks at Polymarket while also moonlighting at Kalshi. One imagines the awkward small talk when both companies end up at the same cocktail party.Polymarket made the splashy announcement that Trump Jr. was not only on the advisory board but that his investment firm, 1789 Capital, had put money into the company. Over at Kalshi, they reminded us that Trump Jr. has been in an advisory role since January, though Axios dryly noted this is a paid gig rather than an investment. In other words, cash one place, consulting fee the other.Excited to welcome @DonaldJTrumpJr's fund @1789Capital as a strategic investor in Polymarket ahead of our US launch.Don will also be joining our advisory board.Assembling the avengers. We're coming home pic.twitter.com/w6MdZuoCXv Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) August 26, 2025If you are confused about how the same person can advise the two biggest players in a niche industry that thrives on wagers about who sneezes next in Congress, you are not alone. But then again, we live in an era where conflict of interest is more of a conversation starter than a career-ender.Polymarket, for its part, is preparing for its grand re-entry into the United States after a time-out courtesy of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC had scolded the company in 2022 for allegedly running unregulated prediction markets, which is basically the financial regulators equivalent of sending you to your room without dessert.Now, with its acquisition of a licensed exchange this summer, Polymarket hopes to come back stateside within weeks, or maybe the fall if the paperwork moves at government speed.The only thing harder to predict than the next election is how Trump Jr. plans to balance his new double life. Luckily, there are two companies ready to let you bet on it.Whats on this weeks prediction marketsKalshiFor reasons known only to the gods of finance, Kalshis users are once again glued to the Federal Reserve. Last week it was interest rates, this week it is whether Fed governor Lisa Cook will be booted before the year is out. The market gives it a 31% chance, which is prediction-market speak for probably not, but wouldnt it be fun if.Kalshi traders give Lisa Cook a 31% chance of losing her Fed seat this year. Credit: KalshiThe drama stems from President Trumps announcement that he had fired Cook, accusing her of mortgage fraud. In the grand tradition of Trump statements, it was accompanied by a social media letter spelling out her alleged sins.JUST IN: Fed governor Lisa Cook, who was fired by Trump, says she will continue to carry out her dutiesOnly 39% chance shes out this year pic.twitter.com/XrQJoaouzH Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 26, 2025The law, however, says Fed governors can only be removed for cause, usually interpreted as serious misconduct, not a mortgage paperwork spat. Legal experts lined up to politely suggest the president may have a tough time making this stick.Meanwhile, Kalshi got an unexpected marketing boost from El Salvadors President Nayib Bukele, who gleefully tweeted about the platforms market on whether the countrys Bitcoin stash will hit one billion dollars by the end of 2025.I could do the funniest thing right now https://t.co/82lENa4hgN Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) August 27, 2025Odds on Kalshi jumped from 20% to 38% after Bukele hinted he could do the funniest thing right now, a phrase that no doubt made both his finance minister and the International Monetary Fund reach for aspirin.Not to be outdone, Polymarket quickly listed its own version of the bet, where the odds sit a touch higher at 43%. Apparently nothing motivates the global prediction market industry quite like a Bitcoin-loving president with a Twitter habit.PolymarketNot to be left out of the Lisa Cook drama, Polymarket has its own market on whether she will be out by the end of 2025. Bettors are giving it only 28%, a slight notch lower than Kalshis take. Cook herself has brushed off Trumps dismissal letter, arguing that for cause removals have to do with actual misconduct in office rather than anything in her past mortgage paperwork.Polymarket bettors see only a 28% chance Lisa Cook is forced out by years end. Credit: PolymarketPolymarket traders also see little chance of Jerome Powell being shoved aside in 2025, pricing his early exit at just 10%. The message is clear: investors believe central bank independence has a stronger spine than the headlines suggest.But Polymarkets crown jewel this week had nothing to do with the Fed and everything to do with Taylor Swifts ring finger. One user, who goes by the name romanticpaul, saw the writing on the Instagram wall before the rest of us. Less than 24 hours before Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement, romanticpaul loaded up on Yes shares of the couple tying the knot by year-end.Polymarket users cashed in after Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announced their engagement. Credit: PolymarketBy the time the couple posted their coordinated selfies, he was sitting on a 153% profit worth more than $3,000. The speed with which Polymarket bettors pivoted to wagering on pregnancy timelines suggests Swifties may be outpacing Wall Street in their use of alternative data.Of course, Polymarket cannot resist wandering into darker corners of speculation. The platform is now offering bets on whether Houthi rebels will successfully attack another ship by August 31.The market appeared barely two weeks after real-world strikes killed at least five seafarers, which has led to outrage from human rights groups and the shipping industry alike. Critics call the contracts abhorrent, accusing the platform of normalizing the monetization of violence.Despite the condemnation, volume has already topped $23,000, with traders buying Yes shares for fifteen cents.It is the kind of bet that reminds you prediction markets are not just mirrors of public curiosity but also of its worst impulses. For every romanticpaul riding a wave of celebrity gossip, there are others willing to wager on whether missiles will fly.Featured image: Canva / Federal Reserve / GrokThe post Prediction Pulse: Lisa Cook faces Trump challenge, Trump Jr. plays both markets, and Taylor Swift turns Polymarket into a payday appeared first on ReadWrite.