With last weeks US elections, everything changed for the tech industry, especially for Microsoft. Given President-elect Donald J. Trumps penchant for incendiary statements, off-the-cuff decisions, plans to impose massive tariffs, and willingness to use the power of his office for personal vendettas, almost anything could happen.But based on Trumps past actions, who he turns to for tech and economic advice, and what hes said on the campaign trail, theres a lot we know about how Microsoft will likely be affected by his upcoming four-year reign.Theres so much, in fact, that its more than can be covered in one column. Here, Ill look at how Trumps likely plans for AI will affect the company. In Part 2, Ill look at tariffs, antitrust and climate change issues, and how Trumps actions often are based more on personal grievances than policy.Heres how the president-elects likely AI plans could help or hurt the company.Letting AI run freeMicrosoft is the world leader in AI and has built generative AI (genAI) copilots into its entire product line. That was just the start. The company continues to invest billions and has bet its future on the technology. As genAI goes, so goes Microsoft. That means any actions Trump takes could dramatically affect Microsofts present and future.Trump has said plenty about tech through the years, but surprisingly little about AI. Based on his big tech backers, general outlook on technology, and the few things hes said about it, we can get some sense of what hell do.One of his biggest tech boosters is venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who is opposed to any regulation of AI, and believes AI development should be absolutely unfettered. Elon Musk wields even more influence with Trump than Andreessen, though, and has become his most trusted tech adviser. Musk is generally against any government regulation over tech, but when it comes to AI, hes a bit more nuanced.Musk has often spoken about his fears that unchecked AI could lead to the destruction of the human race. He also supporteda California bill that would have required AI to undergo safety testing before being deployed.As he wrote on X: For over 20 years, I have been an advocate for AI regulation, just as we regulate any product/technology that is a potential risk to the public.The bill was passed by the California legislature, but Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed it.That makes it sound as if Musk is all in on regulation. But thats not really the case. His primary worry is that AI might eventually represent an existential threat to mankind and thats all he wants to regulate. Hes against regulations around existing real-world issuessuch as intellectual property theft, or AIs use to violate civil rights, its role in misinformation, privacy violations, its effect on jobs and more.What this all means is that its unlikely AI will face much regulation under Trump. The first thing hell probably do is rescindBidens well-thought-out AI executive orderthat addresses everything from safety and security measures to issues related to bias and civil rights, and oversight over how genAI is produced. Because it was only an executive order, it didnt carry the full force of law. But it did have some effect. And it was an ideal roadmap for how Congress could act on AI regulation if it wanted to.Samuel Hammond, a senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, was blunt about what would happen to that order. He told Vox,There will likely be a day one repeal of the Biden executive order on AI.Trump will also almost certainly want to boost AI to make sure the US leads China in it.He told the right-wing influencer Logan Paul in an interview, We have to be at the forefront [of AI]. Its going to happen. And if its going to happen, we have to take the lead over China.Finally, in JulyThe Washington Post reported that Trumps tech boostersare drafting a sweeping AI executive order that would launch a series of Manhattan Projects to develop military technology and immediately review unnecessary and burdensome regulations.How this affects MicrosoftWhat does all this mean for Microsoft? Under Trump its going to be full speed ahead on AI. Any regulations are likely to cover only the existential danger AI could pose to humanity, and not any of the many dangers it currently poses. That means the company will be free to develop AI in pretty much any way it wants.Theres more good news for Microsoft than just being free of regulations. Because it is the worlds most powerful AI company, the Trump administration will almost certainly turn to Microsoft for help in its fight against China and pay the company well for it. The Biden administration has already done so, much to Microsofts benefit. The administration brokered a deal in which Microsoft invested $1.5 billion in a powerful genAI company based in the United Arab Emirates, which then cut its ties to China and aligned with the US.In addition, there will be direct government AI contracts. Expect Trump to pour billions into the military use of AI. Microsoft has had contracts with the US military for decades. In just the past few years, its gottena $22 billion contract to provide the US Army with 120,000 AR headsetsandbillions for a Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability (JWCC) contract to establish what the company calls an enterprise-level tactical cloud.A new generation of AI-related military contracts under Trump will fatten the companys bottom line even more.The Trump wild cardAll this requires that Trump acts rationally, though, which rarely occurs. If Microsoft wants those government contracts and wants to be free from regulation, its going to have to be obsequious to Trump, praise him when necessary and stay away from even the slightest hint of criticism. Its going to have to close its eyes to the worst of his actions and behavior. Its also going to have to do the same with Musk, who is as mercurial and thin-skinned as Trump.If Microsoft does all that, its profits will be sky high. As for what price in self-respect and its sense of itself as a moral company, only Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and those who work there know.