7 Counterintuitive and Non-intuitive Probability Problems 0 like January 14, 2025Share this postLast Updated on January 14, 2025 by Editorial TeamAuthor(s): Saankhya Mondal Originally published on Towards AI. Exploring Mind-Bending Scenarios Where Probability Challenges Our ExpectationsThis member-only story is on us. Upgrade to access all of Medium.This article will explore seven fascinating probability problems that challenge intuition and lead to surprising results. Each problem will illustrate how our expectations can differ from reality. Ill discuss the hidden principles behind these seemingly paradoxical scenarios. Lets get started.Image generated by author using GPT 4oThis problem is taken from the book 50 Challenging Problems in Probability by Frederick Mosteller. The question goes as follows.To encourage Elmers promising career, his father offers him a prize if he wins (at least) two tennis sets in a row in a three-set series to be played with his father and the club champion alternately: father-champion-father or champion-father-champion, according to Elmers choice. The champion is a better player than Elmers father. Which series should Elmer choose?Intuition says Elmer must pick father-champion-father because he gets to play against his father twice and the champion, a better player than his father once. The answer is incorrect.Elmer must pick champion-father-champion to increase his chances of winning the prize. Heres why.Let the probability of beating the champion be c and the father be f. f > c. Elmer will win the prize if he wins two sets Read the full blog for free on Medium.Join thousands of data leaders on the AI newsletter. Join over 80,000 subscribers and keep up to date with the latest developments in AI. From research to projects and ideas. If you are building an AI startup, an AI-related product, or a service, we invite you to consider becoming asponsor. Published via Towards AITowards AI - Medium Share this post