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To close out 2024, the AIAs Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reported another drop. After a turnaround in October where an increase in billings was reported (one of only two upticks since October 2022), in December the score fell again to 44.1any number below 50 indicates a decline in billings. Despite the dip in billings, the AIA noted in its report that inquiries into new projects continue to be on the up and up, albeit at a slower rate than what we have been seeing. The value of newly signed design contracts has, however, dropped.AIA chief economist Kermit Baker summed up Decembers decline succinctly and also ruminated on the uncertainty of this upcoming year in a statement: While there were signs that the design cycle was bottoming out in the fourth quarter, the December reading indicated a step back, Baker said. There remains considerable uncertainty as to the feasibility of many planned construction projects, so the wait-and-see period is extending into 2025. In addition to reporting a national score, each month the AIA breaks down the billings index by region and building sector. In December, the West reported a strong 52.2, indicating an increase in billings, while the other regions all reported declines, with their scores each falling under that coveted 50 mark. The region with the lowest was again the Northeast, 41.7.No particular sector saw any significant upward movement in billings from the previous period. Firms reported the lowest amount of billings decline from institutional projects. Concern over inflation was pervasive throughout 2024 and will likely only increase throughout 2025. In its report the AIA cited the University of Michigans most recent Index of Consumer Sentiment, the results show a spike in consumer concern about inflation over the next six months, the AIA shared.Worries over increasing costs for products, goods, and services had waned slightly when the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates. Already, President Donald Trump has said he plans to add tariffs on goods coming from China, as well as bordering U.S. neighbors, Mexico and Canada. With interest rates likely to not drop much more than they already have, financing for projects and construction work is on the line.
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