DeepSeek and the High-Stakes Global AI Race
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This AI-feeding frenzy reminds me more and more of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s, but with less focus on overpaying employees. As it was then, the core issue now is companies screaming that their AI is better, but most buyers are still not well enough informed or trained to deploy AI effectively.One of the big problems DeepSeek seemed to address out of the box is that quality is important in an AI. What makes DeepSeek interesting is that rather than glossing over that problem, it addressed it up front, resulting in what appears to be both a cheaper and better AI alternative.It is also fascinating that because DeepSeek was blocked from using Nvidias current top AI technologies, its developers optimized the model to work better on older Nvidia technology. The result appears to be 94% cost savings in creating the model.These cost savings have improved performance while reducing expenses. The trade-off is the typical security concern and potential model corruption by the Chinese government, although China may simply be using a filter that blocks unacceptable queries and doesnt corrupt the core AI.Lets discuss AI-wars this week, with a focus on DeepSeek. Well close with my Product of the Week from Samsung, which is arguably the most premium non-foldable phone on the market and a showcase of Qualcomms latest processor.DeepSeek: Its Good. ButUnless youve been living under a rock, youve heard of DeepSeek. Its entry into the market tanked Nvidia stock last week (even though many argue it shouldnt have done that) and put OpenAI on notice that there is a new AI sheriff in town from China.Ive been arguing for some time that the industrys huge mistake was focusing more on speed than quality and accuracy because AIs have become increasingly unreliable over time. What DeepSeek did differently was build in an AI quality check. Instead of just focusing on speed, it puts a lot of effort into quality. The result is impressive.The other advantage to DeepSeek is that while it takes around $100 million to spin up a generative AI model like DeepSeeks, it claims it did it for only $6 million, resulting in a better, cheaper product. Better and cheaper generally result in a win.OpenAI is not amused and is suing DeepSeek. However, the lack of cooperation between the U.S. and China makes it unlikely that OpenAI will prevail globally in this effort because China will certainly not support it, which is where DeepSeek is based. DeepSeeks origin in China presents a significant drawback because the Chinese government appears to be interfering with the app. Users are blocked from asking questions about anything China finds sensitive or critical of the governments actions, past or present.While this looks to be a front-end filter, typically, when you place artificial rules on an AI, it will both seek to break them and foster a knowledge base on how to get around the restrictions, which could eventually result in a degradation of accuracy that defines this product.Finally, if the U.S. government has issues with TikTok, it will hate DeepSeek because it is more damaging and appears closer to the Chinese government than TikTok. This AI brings up huge domestic privacy and security concerns that easily eclipse those surrounding TikTok, given how an AI is trained and how much more information could be captured from its users.AI WarsThe competition is just beginning, as we are already up to our necks in new AI companies at 1,532. Most of these companies will be acquired or will fail, which makes this a really interesting and impressively scary market to work or invest in at the moment, much like it was back in those dot-com days when VCs were throwing money at internet companies until it became clear that many of them werent going to make it to revenue, let alone profit.This rapid evolution in AI is only a precursor to what we are likely to see in a few years when the first AGI (artificial general intelligence) products show up. Things will likely get crazy because most of the limitations with generative AI will go away, models should drop rapidly in price, and much like the internet is everywhere now, AI will be on the fast path to being everywhere then.The amount of money in play is in the trillions of dollars for whoever gets this right first. If Elon Musk is displaced at the top of the rich guy pile, it will likely be by someone as closely connected to AGI as Musk was to electric cars a decade ago. Since AI covers robotics and self-driving vehicles, whoever that is may eclipse Musk quickly once their AGI product sells at scale.There is already both a fight for top talent and significant efforts to get AI to develop itself. The latter effort is likely to be the most disruptive because once AI can develop itself, the door opens to an even bigger problem with speed and quality unless that quality aspect is addressed as DeepSeek has.Nvidia Is in Trouble. ButSince the DeepSeek announcement, people have argued that Nvidia is in trouble, so its valuation has taken a beating. However, Nvidia isnt in trouble because of DeepSeek. It is in trouble because of the U.S. policy preventing Nvidia from selling its best tech to China. As a result, China is figuring out how to use older technology effectively, which has enabled DeepSeeks impressive, inexpensive, and accurate performance.Instead of protecting Nvidia and other U.S. companies, this policy is turning China into a far stronger competitor and effectively locking Nvidia out of competing with Chinese companies. The embargo doesnt prevent China from getting and reverse engineering a part; they have been doing that for decades with defense technology, and a commercially available part is pretty easy to gray market. So, the embargo only creates the illusion of security and limits Nvidia from protecting its IP more effectively. DeepSeek would likely perform even better on Nvidias Blackwell AI GPU, which is significantly more efficient and powerful than the older hardware it currently runs on.Nvidia should be allowed to compete for this opportunity. However, since its blocked, China is successfully figuring out how to move beyond Blackwell and eventually will figure out a way to move beyond Nvidia. Its not what they want to do because they recognize Nvidia has better technology; it is what they are being made to do by what I view as a foolish U.S. policy that is creating a competitive problem for them.If this doesnt get fixed, the next AI wave will likely break out of China, which, thanks to DeepSeek, may already be happening.Wrapping Up: Who Will Win the Global AI Race?With the launch of DeepSeek, the AI-wars have kicked off, but this is just the opening salvo. Its an impressive opening move that gives the world a heads up that Chinese companies are more than willing to compete despite technology sanctions that appear to be hurting U.S. companies and consumers (the Chinese EVs are now leading that market) more than they are hurting Chinas prospects.If the U.S. doesnt step up to this competition more aggressively by helping rather than hindering U.S. tech companies, it is increasingly likely that China will eventually emerge as the stronger AI competitor (which it may be doing right now), and to the new victor will go the AI spoils.Samsung Galaxy S25 UltraImage Credit: SamsungWhile I prefer foldable phones, most people still opt for traditional single-screen devices. The Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra is a technology powerhouse based on Qualcomms best processor, the Snapdragon 8 Elite. You can pre-order it now, and it will be available by Friday in the U.S.The S25 Ultra is an expensive phone at $1,300. Right now, theres a sale that makes the 512GB upgrade free, and you can get up to $900 off if you have a relatively current smartphone or tablet to trade in.Its sleeker than its predecessor, with a bigger, brighter, and tougher display. It also allows actions across multiple apps. Its 50 MP camera is amazing, and its AI will work out of the box (Apples AI lagged in its latest phone announcement). Some iPhone users who have tested this product found it better than their Apple phones, which is high praise.The ability to span apps with AI can be very useful. For instance, you can look up a date for a coming event, put that event on your calendar, and send details to whoever is going with you with a single prompt. This feature continues to make me wonder if separate apps will even be a thing in the future since this phone can seamlessly move between apps using agentic AI to complete complex tasks like the one just mentioned.While the phone has some interesting noise cancellation features, early testing has been mixed, suggesting there may be a learning curve to getting the tech to work properly or the need for a patch, which is not unusual for a brand-new advanced feature. The phone comes in several colors. I like the Titanium Jetblack (pictured above with the S pen) the best.The Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra is as much a showcase of Qualcomms advanced technology as it is of Samsungs. It is arguably one of, if not the best, premium phones on the market and my Product of the Week.
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