The odds of an asteroid crashing into Earth in 2032 keep changing, and not in a good way. Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 1-in-45 chance of impacting our planet in seven years. The odds are not a huge concern, at least not yet; this estimate is very preliminary, and if history repeats itself, these odds will continue to decrease over time. The odds of newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032 have risen from 1.3% to 2.2%, according to NASAs Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). This figure is as of Monday morning, February 10, and has been fluctuating regularly. The asteroid was first spotted on December 27, 2024 when it was 515,116 miles (829,000 kilometers) from Earth. At the time, the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting our pale blue dot was 1-in-83, and were upped to 1-in-63 earlier this month. The odds of collision are preliminary, as astronomers gather more data on the asteroid to refine its chances of impact. Normally, the odds decrease over time until its close to zero. This happened with asteroid Apophis back in 2004, when astronomers assigned it a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029. This figure has since fallen to practically zero, with Apophis posing no known threat to Earth. A similar thing has yet to happen with 2024 YR4. NASA deems asteroids as potentially hazardous if they are between 100 and 165 (30 and 50 meters) in diameter and if their orbit brings them within 5 million miles (8 million kilometers) of Earths orbit. The newly discovered asteroid measures between 130 and 300 feet wide (40 and 90 meters), based on estimates from its reflected light. Its not large enough to cause a global threat, but its unlikely impact would result in some pretty hardcore damage. Should it strike Earth, the asteroid would release about 8 megatons of energymore than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, and comparable to the energy released in the Tunguska blast of 1908, according to NASA.There are seven distinct possible impact events for 2024 YR4 between 2032 and 2074, with the highest likelihood of impact being on December 22, 2032. The 2032 date qualifies as a Torino 3 level risk on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which measures the danger posed by asteroids. A level-three rating means that the asteroid has a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction, according to CNEOS. Astronomers will continue to monitor the asteroid during each flyby of Earth, refining measurements of its speed, spin, mass, and dimensions over time, among many other variables. The asteroid is currently moving away from us, and its next close approach will occur in December 2028. By then, observations of the asteroid could lead to a more accurate estimate of its chances of striking Earth. Hopefully, the numbers start moving in the right direction, decreasing the odds of an ill-fated asteroid impact within the next few years.