The first Democrat in New York history with a computer science background wants to revive some of the ideas behind the failed California AI safety bill, SB 1047, with a new version in his state that would regulate the most advanced AI models. Its called the RAISE Act, an acronym for Responsible AI Safety and Education. Assembly member Alex Bores hopes his bill, currently an unpublished draftsubject to changethat MIT Technology Review has seen, will address many of the concerns that blocked SB 1047 from passing into law. SB 1047 was, at first, thought to be a fairly modest bill that would pass without much fanfare. In fact, it flew through the California statehouse with huge margins and received significant public support. However, before it even landed on Governor Gavin Newsoms desk for signature in September, it sparked an intense national fight. Google, Meta, and OpenAI came out against the bill, alongside top congressional Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Zoe Lofgren. Even Hollywood celebrities got involved, with Jane Fonda and Mark Hamill expressing support for the bill. Ultimately, Newsom vetoed SB 1047, effectively killing regulation of so-called frontier AI models not just in California but, with the lack of laws on the national level, anywhere in the US, where the most powerful systems are developed. Now Bores hopes to revive the battle. The main provisions in the RAISE Act include requiring AI companies to develop safety plans for the development and deployment of their models. The bill also provides protections for whistleblowers at AI companies. It forbids retaliation against an employee who shares information about an AI model in the belief that it may cause critical harm; such whistleblowers can report the information to the New York attorney general. One way the bill defines critical harm is the use of an AI model to create a chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear weapon that results in the death or serious injury of 100 or more people. Alternatively, a critical harm could be a use of the AI model that results in 100 or more deaths or at least $1 billion in damages in an act with limited human oversight that if committed by a human would constitute a crime requiring intent, recklessness, or gross negligence. The safety plans would ensure that a company has cybersecurity protections in place to prevent unauthorized access to a model. The plan would also require testing of models to assess risks before and after training, as well as detailed descriptions of procedures to assess the risks associated with post-training modifications. For example, some current AI systems have safeguards that can be easily and cheaply removed by a malicious actor. A safety plan would have to address how the company plans to mitigate these actions. The safety plans would then be audited by a third party, like a nonprofit with technical expertise that currently tests AI models. And if violations are found, the bill empowers the attorney general of New York to issue fines and, if necessary, go to the courts to determine whether to halt unsafe development. A different flavour of bill The safety plans and external audits were elements of SB 1047, but Bores aims to differentiate his bill from the California one. We focused a lot on what the feedback was for 1047, he says. Parts of the criticism were in good faith and could make improvements. And so we've made a lot of changes. The RAISE Act diverges from SB 1047 in a few ways. For one, SB 1047 would have created the Board of Frontier Models, tasked with approving updates to the definitions and regulations around these AI models, but the proposed act would not create a new government body. The New York bill also doesnt create a public cloud computing cluster, which SB 1047 would have done. The cluster was intended to support projects to develop AI for the public good. The RAISE Act doesnt have SB 1047s requirement that companies be able to halt all operations of their model, a capability sometimes referred to as a kill switch. Some critics alleged that the shutdown provision of SB 1047 would harm open-source models, since developers cant shut down a model someone else may now possess (even though SB 1047 had an exemption for open-source models). The RAISE Act avoids the fight entirely. SB 1047 referred to an advanced persistent threat associated with bad actors trying to steal information during model training. The RAISE Act does away with that definition, sticking to addressing critical harms from covered models. Focusing on the wrong issues? Bores bill is very specific with its definitions in an effort to clearly delineate what this bill is and isnt about. The RAISE Act doesnt address some of the current risks from AI models, like bias, discrimination, and job displacement. Like SB 1047, it is very focused on catastrophic risks from frontier AI models. Some in the AI community believe this focus is misguided. Were broadly supportive of any efforts to hold large models accountable, says Kate Brennan, associate director of the AI Now Institute, which conducts AI policy research. But defining critical harms only in terms of the most catastrophic harms from the most advanced models overlooks the material risks that AI poses, whether its workers subject to surveillance mechanisms, prone to workplace injuries because of algorithmically managed speed rates, climate impacts of large-scale AI systems, data centers exerting massive pressure on local power grids, or data center construction sidestepping key environmental protections," she says. Bores has worked on other bills addressing current harms posed by AI systems, like discrimination and lack of transparency. That said, Bores is clear that this new bill is aimed at mitigating catastrophic risks from more advanced models. Were not talking about any model that exists right now, he says. We are talking about truly frontier models, those on the edge of what we can build and what we understand, and there is risk in that. The bill would cover only models that pass a certain threshold for how many computations their training required, typically measured in FLOPs (floating-point operations). In the bill, a covered model is one that requires more than 1026 FLOPs in its training and costs over $100 million. For reference, GPT-4 is estimated to have required 1025 FLOPs. This approach may draw scrutiny from industry forces. While we cant comment specifically on legislation that isnt public yet, we believe effective regulation should focus on specific applications rather than broad model categories, says a spokesperson at Hugging Face, a company that opposed SB 1047. Early days The bill is in its nascent stages, so its subject to many edits in the future, and no opposition has yet formed. There may already be lessons to be learned from the battle over SB 1047, however. Theres significant disagreement in the space, but I think debate around future legislation would benefit from more clarity around the severity, the likelihood, and the imminence of harms, says Scott Kohler, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who tracked the development of SB 1047. When asked about the idea of mandated safety plans for AI companies, assembly member Edward Ra, a Republican who hasn't yet seen a draft of the new bill yet, said: I dont have any general problem with the idea of doing that. We expect businesses to be good corporate citizens, but sometimes you do have to put some of that into writing. Ra and Bores co chair the New York Future Caucus, which aims to bring together lawmakers 45 and under to tackle pressing issues that affect future generations. Scott Wiener, a California state senator who sponsored SB 1047, is happy to see that his initial bill, even though it failed, is inspiring further legislation and discourse. The bill triggered a conversation about whether we should just trust the AI labs to make good decisions, which some will, but we know from past experience, some wont make good decisions, and thats why a level of basic regulation for incredibly powerful technology is important, he says. He has his own plans to reignite the fight: Were not done in California. There will be continued work in California, including for next year. Im optimistic that California is gonna be able to get some good things done. And some believe the RAISE Act will highlight a notable contradiction: Many of the industrys players insist that they want regulation, but when any regulation is proposed, they fight against it. SB 1047 became a referendum on whether AI should be regulated at all, says Brennan. There are a lot of things we saw with 1047 that we can expect to see replay in New York if this bill is introduced. We should be prepared to see a massive lobbying reaction that industry is going to bring to even the lightest-touch regulation. Wiener and Bores both wish to see regulation at a national level, but in the absence of such legislation, theyve taken the battle upon themselves. At first it may seem odd for states to take up such important reforms, but California houses the headquarters of the top AI companies, and New York, which has the third-largest state economy in the US, is home to offices for OpenAI and other AI companies. The two states may be well positioned to lead the conversation around regulation. There is uncertainty at the direction of federal policy with the transition upcoming and around the role of Congress, says Kohler. It is likely that states will continue to step up in this area. Wieners advice for New York legislators entering the arena of AI regulation? Buckle up and get ready.

Hundreds of incarcerated firefighters are helping to battle the wildfires in the Los Angeles area.Incarcerated firefighters earn $26.90 to $34 for each 24-hour shift.It's far below California's minimum wage of $16.50 an hour.Hundreds of incarcerated firefighters have been deployed to help battle the fires raging across the Los Angeles area, with some working 24-hour shifts for as little as $26.90, or just over $1 an hour.The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation told The Guardian that it had deployed 395 incarcerated firefighters to help battle the blazes.The firefighters, who have "minimum custody" status, have been embedded with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, which has deployed thousands of firefighting to the area.The CDCR, jointly with Cal Fire and the Los Angeles County Fire Department, runs 35 "fire camps" across 25 California counties. Participation is voluntary, with inmates using hand tools to aid in fire suppression and other emergency responses.The camps are considered minimum-security facilities.California, which is grappling with longer and more destructive fire seasons amid the climate crisis, has long relied on incarcerated people for its response. In fact, the CDCR crews have, at times, accounted for as much as 30% of the state's wildfire force.According to the CDCR, fire crew members earn between $5.80 and $10.24 a day, depending on their skill level, with an additional $1 per hour for active emergency assignments.Crews can work 24-hour shifts during emergencies, followed by 24 hours of rest, it said, with the lowest-skilled firefighters earning $26.90 and the highest-skilled maxing out at about $34.For context, California's minimum wage is $16.50 per hour, with some areas, such as West Hollywood, offering higher minimum wages.In California, inmates are not guaranteed the state's minimum wage, and some earn as little as 16 cents per hour.The $10.24 basic rate for the highest-skilled incarcerated firefighters ranks among the best daily rate for incarcerated people in the state.In addition to pay, fire crews helping out during emergencies like this receive "time credits" on a two-for-one basis, meaning that for each day they serve on the crew, they receive two additional days off their sentence.Participation can also lead to criminal record expungement and the ability to seek professional emergency response certifications.The CDCR did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment.

American Airlines flight attendants were sent a union memo about leaving passengers on empty planes.The AFPA said cabin crew members should check lavatories and under seats for sleeping passengers.A union spokesperson said it "routinely" issued such reminders to members.The union for American Airlines flight attendants has issued a memo reminding cabin crew not to leave sleeping passengers on board after flights land.Aviation news site Paddle Your Own Kanoo reported that the Association of Professional Flight Attendants (APFA) recently warned members there had been an increase in such incidents."This communication serves as a reminder for flight attendants to complete required post-flight security checks to ensure all passengers have deplaned upon arrival," a spokesperson for APFA, which represents more than 28,000 American Airlines cabin crew members, told Business Insider.They added that the union "routinely releases communications reminding flight attendants of the importance of conducting these checks."Leaving a passenger on an empty plane is not only a security concern but can also violate safety rules that mandate a minimum number of flight attendants per passenger.APFA's recent memo reminded cabin crew to "check lavatories, and make sure no passengers are sleeping in or under seats," Paddle Your Own Kanoo reported."These procedures are required to ensure that no passenger is ever left onboard," the memo continued. "This is a critical final check to confirm that no one has been overlooked, and this ensures that you and your crew aren't at risk of violating a [federal aviation regulation]."The lead flight attendant is also supposed to perform a walk-through of the cabin as a final check, the memo reportedly said."Leaving passengers on the aircraft unattended is a significant safety and security concern and we appreciate everyone's shared efforts in ensuring this doesn't happen."In 2019, an Air Canada passenger woke up alone on a cold and dark plane.Tiffani O'Brien said she fell asleep on the 90-minute flight from Quebec City to Toronto and woke up hours later after the plane had been parked.

McDonald's is facing fresh scrutiny over sexual harassment claims in its UK restaurants.Hundreds of workers are taking legal action against the chain, a law firm said this week.McDonald's says ensuring staff are safe at work is its "most important responsibility."Hundreds of McDonald's workers in the UK are taking legal action over claims of workplace bullying and harassment.Law firm Leigh Day said this week that over 700 people who work at or have previously worked at 450 different McDonald's locations across the UK have joined the proceedings. All the workers were 19 or under when working at McDonald's, Leigh Day says.News of the legal action comes as the BBC published fresh claims of workplace harassment at the fast-food giant, around 18 months after a major investigation into the working culture at the Golden Arches.The BBC investigation, published in July 2023, revealed that over 100 workers at a number of the Golden Arches locations had spoken of experiencing sexual assault, harassment, racism, or bullying. Since that investigation, 160 more people have approached the BBC with allegations, it reported on Tuesday.The BBC's latest report on harassment and abuse at the fast-food behemoth comes over a year after its UK boss pledged to take action to improve working conditions.Starting in February 2023, after the fast food chain signed an agreement with the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) promising to protect its staff from sexual harassment, the BBC spoke to staff about the working environment at McDonald's.Of the over 100 allegations the BBC heard prior to publishing its initial 2023 investigation, 31 involved sexual assault, 78 involved sexual harassment, 18 were related to racism, and 6 were related to homophobia.Alistair Macrow, the CEO of McDonald's UK and Ireland, told Members of Parliament in November 2023 that the company had received 407 complaints from employees since that July. He said it was taking steps to better protect staff.Since the BBC's initial investigation in July 2023, 300 reports alleging harassment at the chain have been made to the EHRC."Ensuring the 168,000 people that work in McDonald's restaurants are safe is the most important responsibility for both us and our franchisees," McDonald's said in a statement sent to Business Insider."We have undertaken extensive work over the last year to ensure we have industry leading practices in place to support this priority. Any incident of misconduct and harassment is unacceptable and subject to rapid and thorough investigation and action."Macrow, the UK McDonald's boss, said that 29 people have been fired over incidents involving sexual harassment in the past year.The BBC heard that one woman said her shift manager, who was in his 30s, asked for sex in exchange for extra shifts when she was a 17-year-old employee. Another female staff member, who was 20 at the time, said her male manager sent her topless photos. A 19-year-old employee alleged he was bullied for having a learning disability and an eye condition, per the BBC.McDonald's rolls back some DEI effortsNews of fresh claims of staff harassment in the UK comes in the same week that McDonald's announced plans to scale back its diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts.McDonald's said in a statement on Monday that it will stop "setting aspirational representation goals," pause participating in external surveys, no longer require its supply chain to commit to its DEI pledge and change the name of its diversity team to the Global Inclusion Team.A growing backlash against DEI strategies has seen companies such as Nissan, Walmart, and Harley-Davidson scale back or cut programs altogether.Much of the criticism has come from high-profile figures like Elon Musk and conservative activist Robby Starbuck, who have labeled such initiatives as "woke."

Grown-ups around the world have spent the last year desperately trying to get kids to put down their phones. Worries about kids screen time are far from new (you could argue that they are nearly a century old), but in recent months, high-profile experts have raised the concern that social media use among young people is not just an annoying time suck but a bona fide public health crisis. Rather than relying on parents to limit kids phone time (which, as many parents can attest, is sometimes easier said than done), a growing number of lawmakers are taking matters into their own hands by passing legislation that seeks to keep kids off social media entirely. Australia made headlines late last year with its law barring children under 16 from social platforms. The law will require platforms like TikTok and Instagram to take reasonable steps to verify that their users are 16 or over, or face up to $32 million in fines (its not yet clear exactly which platforms will be subject to the law, but YouTube and WhatsApp are likely to be excluded, according to the New York Times). Meanwhile, a Florida law scheduled to go into effect this month requires platforms to verify that their users are over 14, and that 14- and 15-year-olds have parental consent. The law, which also does not mention specific social media sites, has been challenged in court. Similar restrictions are in place or under consideration in Utah, Texas, and elsewhere. They join some voluntary efforts by platforms to restrict kids use, like Instagram Teen accounts, as well as increasingly widespread school smartphone bans.RelatedShould schools lock up kids phones?The Australian law was inspired, at least in part, by psychologist Jonathan Haidts 2024 book The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness, which argues that smartphones and social media are behind a rise in reported depression and anxiety among young people in the last 10 years. Theres no conclusive research linking social media to these increases, but theres plenty of anecdotal evidence that scrolling on phones makes kids (and adults) feel bad, and the warnings of smartphone critics including US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, who called last year for a warning label on social media platforms have reached the ears of lawmakers. Social media has a social responsibility, Australian Communications Minister Michelle Rowland told the countrys Parliament last year. Thats why we are making big changes to hold platforms to account for user safety.Its not at all clear, however, how Australias law, which gave social media companies like Meta and X a year to put age guardrails in place, or any of the other social media bans in development around the world, are really going to work.Experts say there are better ways to mitigate some of the potential dangers of social media than trying to institute an age-based ban. Those methods include reporting requirements and restrictions on tracking to make the experience of being online better for everyone, not just kids. We should all be getting less algorithmically driven content, Devorah Heitner, author of the book Growing Up in Public: Coming of Age in a Digital World, told me.Every law banning kids from social media has to reckon with one basic problem: Its notoriously hard to tell how old someone is on the internet. One approach is to require people to show a government-issued ID every time they visit a website, but that entails a pretty serious trade-off in terms of privacy and surveillance, said Shaanan Cohney, a senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne who studies the intersection of technology and the law. Forcing people to show an official ID to access social media platforms would destroy online anonymity for adults as well as kids and make it easier for companies, hackers, and governments to spy on people. Because of these concerns, researchers are working on ways to determine peoples age without asking for ID, by analyzing their faces, hand gestures, or other attributes. But these technologies arent ready for widespread use, Cohney said. Some facial age-matching algorithms, for example, have been shown to be less accurate on darker-skinned faces. A lot of research also neglects the fact that teenagers may try to get around any age-verification systems: A 14-year-old attempting to access social media is going to put on makeup and match their hand gestures in order to try and look as old as possible in order to defeat the technology, Cohney said.If kids can easily skirt the verification system, experts say parents could be left with a false sense of security and companies with little incentive to make their platforms safer because they can simply claim that kids arent using them.The age bans could actually let the companies off the hook in some ways, Heitner said.Enforcement issues are only part of the problem with the bans, some experts (and kids) say. Even if they work as intended, the laws would cut young people off not just from negative experiences on social media but from positive ones as well. Social media platforms, for example, can help LGBTQ+ youth connect with people who understand what theyre going through, something thats especially important for kids in rural areas who may not know many other openly queer or trans people.Social media platforms have also become a core part of our news and political environment. Weve seen internationally known and locally important activists at 14, at 15, as well as influential teen journalists, Keitner said. Banning them from social media would silence their voices. I use my Instagram all the time for suicide prevention advocacy, Anjali Verma, an 18-year-old high school senior and the National Student Council President, told me. For me, social media has been a vehicle to make change.Verma campaigned with the ACLU against the Kids Online Safety Act, a federal bill that many advocacy groups feared would prompt platforms to censor content about LGBTQ+ people and their rights. But shes not against all regulation of social media companies: Tech platforms need to be held accountable to make sure that things that are toxic or harmful on these platforms arent being overly publicized to young people, she said. (Metas recent decision to abandon third-party fact-checkers in favor of an X-style community notes approach is unlikely to help matters, and could expose adults and kids alike to more misinformation.)Some experts say the best way to hold tech companies accountable is to require them to treat all of their users better. Getting targeted weight-loss ads on Instagram may be more damaging for teens than for adults, but I would say none of us should be targeted with that stuff, Heitner said. By the same token, platforms need to create better reporting and enforcement mechanisms to root out sexual harassment and threatening behavior. In the meantime, its important to teach kids how algorithms and targeted ads work, as well as how to handle conflicts that start online, Heitner said. Verma has done some of this teaching herself, training middle school students to be digital first responders and report unsafe content or behavior. Regardless of these social media bans, were going to have social media in the future, she said. For her, its important to teach kids how to navigate that and be educated, so it doesnt seem like its a scary, daunting thing.What Im readingCalifornia legislators are introducing two bills to make it harder for federal immigration agents to enter schools, in response to incoming President Donald Trumps promise to launch a mass deportation campaign.More cities are building playgrounds that double as flood control zones in an effort to adapt to climate change.Gen Alpha is over; Gen Beta is here. Here are some of the first Gen Beta babies, born on January 1, 2025. My little kid is now discovering Tar Beach, a classic by the artist and author Faith Ringgold, who died last year at the age of 93.From my inboxIn December, I asked for your thoughts on the positives of social media. One reader, Nicole, reached out with three book recommendations, which Im now passing along to you:Growing Up in Public: Coming of Age in a Digital World by Devorah Heitner. This reader recommendation inspired me to interview the author!Digital for Good: Raising Kids to Thrive in an Online World by Richard Culatta. An expert in educational technology gives tips for helping kids become good digital citizens.Please Unsubscribe, Thanks!: How to Take Back Our Time, Attention, and Purpose in a Relentless World by Julio Vincent Gambuto. Okay, this one might be less about the positives: The author and filmmaker gives tips for going on a tech elimination diet.I love book recommendations, both for kids and for adults! Please keep sending to me at anna.north@vox.com.Youve read 1 article in the last monthHere at Vox, we're unwavering in our commitment to covering the issues that matter most to you threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the environment, and the rising polarization across this country.Our mission is to provide clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to stay informed and engaged in shaping our world. By becoming a Vox Member, you directly strengthen our ability to deliver in-depth, independent reporting that drives meaningful change.We rely on readers like you join us.Swati SharmaVox Editor-in-ChiefSee More:

Is Donald Trump going to risk throwing the global economy into crisis by enacting the gargantuan tariffs hes proposed?Or is he just pretending hes willing to do that to strike a better deal?On trade and many other issues, its clear Trump enjoys being seen as an unpredictable and dangerous figure and believes that image helps him intimidate others into giving him what he wants a belief akin to Richard Nixons madman theory. This theory that Trumps most extreme threats are play-acting or bluffs is in some ways comforting. But there are real risks to having a president so committed to the madman bit if indeed it is a bit.Taken at face value, Trump appears to believe his tariffs have no downsides. He says that theyll boost domestic industry, bring jobs back to the US, and raise substantial revenue. Tariff, hes said, is the most beautiful word in the dictionary. Hes proposed 10 to 20 percent tariffs on all imports to the US, and has discussed 60 percent or higher tariffs on Chinese imports.Yet economists and financiers have warned that if anything like Trumps tariff proposals was actually implemented, they could well cause a trade war, resurgent US inflation, and a market panic, tanking the US and the global economy.Many in the American business and finance elite dearly hope Trump understands these concerns, is bluffing to try and win concessions from other countries, and will scale back his tariffs to a more reasonable level once hes sworn in.And a story this week from the Washington Posts Jeff Stein seemed to back that theory up. Stein reported that Trumps advisers were considering scaling back his tariff plans; that rather than imposing them on all imports, they might limit them to certain sectors. The problem? Very quickly, Trump heatedly denied the story, calling it wrong and another example of Fake News. Of course, thats what he would say if he was bluffing. So whats really going on?Trumps worldview: Zero-sum conflict, dominance vs. weaknessAs Ive written, Trump views the world in terms of zero-sum conflict, dominance vs. weakness, leverage, and reputation. He believes that by making threats, he can intimidate other countries into changing their behavior. He also likely believes that seeming irrational and dangerous strengthens his bargaining position, particularly against smaller countries, since the US has such an advantage in power over them.Nixons madman theory is a precedent to this kind of thinking. As Dan Drezner, a political scientist at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, recently wrote, Nixon believed that if he seemed dangerous like hed be willing to do anything, including using nuclear weapons he could intimidate foreign adversaries like the North Vietnamese into concessions. Trump may well be applying the madman theory to trade negotiations as well, with his mega-tariffs serving as his nuclear threat. If so, hed see his reputation for belligerent unpredictability as an asset which explains why hed hotly push back on any reports that hes actually backing down.The madman theory explains a lot of Trumps behavior in his first term recall how he threatened to rain fire and fury on North Korea before eventually pursuing a deal with Kim Jong Un. On trade policy specifically, Jonathan Swan reported for Axios in 2017 that Trump explicitly told aides this was his strategy, urging them to tell foreign leaders that if they dont give the concessions now, this crazy guy will pull out of the deal.The idea that Trump is really just play-acting madman is a somewhat comforting belief. It would imply that because Trump privately is well aware his tariffs could create global economic chaos, he wont actually go through with them that hes only crazy like a fox.And maybe thats true and it will all work out fine.But there are also some not-so-comforting aspects to the madman interpretation of Trumps actions. Three reasons not to be too comforted by the madman theoryThe first risk is that foreign leaders have also concluded Trumps most extreme threats are bluffs and that this may make him feel compelled to actually follow through, to some extent, to reestablish his credibility.This is a dynamic we saw play out in Trumps first term. A few years in, foreign leaders had generally taken Trumps measure and concluded he wasnt as dangerous and unpredictable as he sounded. The madman strategy doesnt work if everyone else understands youre just pretending. And Trump got annoyed at one country in particular that he felt was acting increasingly provocative: Iran, which had been locked in a shadow conflict with the US.So, in a January 2020 incident that has been largely forgotten by the general public, Trump had one of Irans top leaders, Qasem Soleimani, assassinated. This was a shocking and extremely provocative action, which violated norms against targeting top foreign government officials. But as I argued at the time, it didnt necessarily signal Trump was truly a war-craving madman. He was trying to reestablish dominance in the relationship with Iran, by proving he really would follow through on his threats.So even if Trumps larger strategy is a bluff, we could be in for a bumpy ride as he tries to prove that hes not actually bluffing.That leads us to the second risk that Trump could be too successful at pretending to be crazy, and cause a market panic from which it may be difficult to recover.The current consensus among investors is that, though Trump is serious about tariffs, he couldnt possibly be serious about the mega-tariffs hes actually proposing. As mentioned, foreign leaders also believe this, and Trump seems to want to change their perception.But its very difficult to send a credibly intimidating madman message to foreign leaders while at the same time sending a reassuring message to markets. So if investors end up concluding that theyve been underestimating the chances Trump actually means it, damage to the economy could ensue, involving either a market panic or prices spiraling higher.Finally, the third risk is that the madman theory is simply wrong in the case of Trump and tariffs. That is: Maybe he actually is tariff-pilled, and fully means what he says. Sometimes world leaders simply get bad information, become convinced of bad ideas, and become emboldened to wave away risks by assuming the worst wont happen. For instance, Vladimir Putin apparently believed (like most outside analysts) that the Ukrainian government would collapse quickly after he invaded if he knew the war would be so lengthy, costly, and deadly, he may not have started it. The same holds true for George W. Bushs hubris in launching his war in Iraq.So perhaps Trump isnt knowingly playing a dangerous game. Perhaps, in his own mind, he doesnt actually think the economic risk is that real.Now, there is a gray area between Trump means it and Trump is bluffing. Trump might currently mean what he says, but in practice, he could be convinced to change course by pleading advisers or plunging markets. In Trumps first term, his advisers often talked him out of ideas they viewed as dangerous and irresponsible. But sometimes, Trump pressed onward anyway. Throughout his attempt to steal the 2020 election, he appeared to inhabit a different factual universe, had a different conception of what he could get away with, and stopped listening to voices counseling caution.If I were to guess, Id say Trump is probably either bluffing or could be talked down. But am I totally sure? I cant say that I am, and I dont think anyone else can claim to be totally sure either. And that may be exactly what Trump wants.Youve read 1 article in the last monthHere at Vox, we're unwavering in our commitment to covering the issues that matter most to you threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the environment, and the rising polarization across this country.Our mission is to provide clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to stay informed and engaged in shaping our world. By becoming a Vox Member, you directly strengthen our ability to deliver in-depth, independent reporting that drives meaningful change.We rely on readers like you join us.Swati SharmaVox Editor-in-ChiefSee More:

Season 1 of Marvel Rivals is here, and as fans gear up to play as the Fantastic Four, we've got the latest patch notes for the popular team-based shooter from NetEaseTech11:09, 09 Jan 2025Marvel Rivals has more heroes joining its ranks(Image: NetEase Games)Marvel Rivals has only been out around a month, but the game has drawn a huge player base already. As with any live service game, though, you're only as good as your latest update but Season 1 looks stacked.Not only will the Season introduce all four members of the Fantastic Four (not all at once, it should be said), it'll add a new Battle Pass, fresh cosmetics, and new maps including a new convoy map through New York City. First heroes released from the famous four is Mr Fantastic and the Invisible Woman.Here's when you can download the update, and the early patch notes for hero balancing.Season 1 of Marvel Rivals arrives at 9 AM GMT on January 10 for UK gamers. For everyone else, you'll find the timings below:1 AM PST4 AM EST10 AM CETReady for some new faces to join the fray?Here are the full Season 1 patch notes for character balance, as per NetEase:Captain AmericaSteve will receive some enhanced survivability, allowing more frequent entering and exiting of the combat.- Reduce the delay time for shield restoration after releasing Living Legend from 3s to 2s.- Reduce Liberty Rush cooldown from 12s to 10s.- Increase base health from 650 to 675.- Reduce the energy cost for releasing Freedom Charge (ultimate ability) from 3400 to 3100; Reduce the additional health provided per second to self after releasing it from 110 to 100.Doctor StrangeWell be reducing the threat range and increasing the defense window of the Sorcerer Supreme.- Add damage falloff to Maelstrom of Madness and Gamma Maelstrom. Starting at 5 meters and reducing to 70% at 8 meters.- Slightly decrease the shield value recovery rate after releasing Shield of the Seraphim from 80/s to 70/s.ThorThe God of Thunder could use some slightly increased survivability and improved the success rate to his ultimate ability.- Increase base health from 500 to 525.- Added immunity to control effects during God of Thunder (ultimate ability).HulkDr. Banner has been dominant, but some decreased sustained combat capability upon entering the battlefield will bring him more in line with other Vanguards.- Reduce the Indestructible Guard gamma shield value for Hero Hulk from 250 to 200.VenomWith increased survivability and the threat of his ultimate ability, the symbiote menace will strike fear into the backlines of all enemy teams.- Increase the Symbiotic Resilience bonus health ratio gained per lost health point from 1 to 1.2.- Increase the base damage of Feast of the Abyss (ultimate ability) from 40 to 50.Black PantherWe're slightly decreasing T'Challa's combat survivability.- Reduce the additional health provided to self after refreshing Vibranium Marks with Spirit Rend from 40 to 30, and the upper limit of additional health provided from 120 to 75.Black WidowNatasha was very much in need of optimization when evaluating the release experience of her abilities as well as a slightly increase to the threat of her ultimate ability,- Increase the range of the first effect of Edge Dancer from a 3-meter radius to a 5-meter radius.- Reduce the time required for Fleet Foot to recover from 0 stamina to full from 12s to 4s.- Reduce the time required for Electro-Plasma Explosion (ultimate ability) to reach maximum power from 1s to 0.6s.HawkeyeWe'll be decreasing the medium-long range damage capability, reducing the threatening combat radius, and slightly improving the close combat resistance for the avenging archer.- Slightly reduce the spread angle between every two Blast Arrows.- Reduce the triggering distance of passive ability Archer's Focus from 60 meters to 40 meters. Reduce the maximum additional damage of the passive from 80 to 70.HelaThe Goddess of Death has been a menace and we'll slightly decreasing her combat strength.- Reduce base health from 275 to 250.MagikThe Queen of Limbo needed an Increase to her threat after unleashing her ultimate ability.- Increase Umbral Incursion damage in Darkchild form from 115 to 135.Moon KnightThe Hand of Khonshu will receive a slight increase to the threat of his ultimate ability.- Increase the number of talons generated by Hand of Khonshu (ultimate ability) from 10 to 14.- Increase the explosion radius of each talon from 4 meters to 5 meters.NamorWe're optimizing the throwing feel of Namor's eggs!- Adjust the throwing feel of Monstro Spawn and Frozen Spawn. Now, Namor can more accurately throw them to the desired location.PsylockeWe'll be providing more options for other heroes to counter the demon slayer's ultimate.- Now Dance of the Butterfly (ultimate ability) will check for barriers (including Magneto's Metal Bulwark, Hulk's Indestructible Guard, etc.)The PunisherWe're slightly increasing the damage capability of Frank's weapons.- Slightly reduce the spread of Deliverance and Adjudication.Scarlet WitchWe're Increasing Wanda's combat strength when she's facing Duelists or Strategists.- Increase Chaos Control's fixed damage from 50/s to 60/s. - Reduce the percentage damage per second from 5% to 3%.- Increase Chthonian Burst's projectile damage from 30 to 35.StormThe Weather Witch needed an overall increase to her damage capability; We're also optimizing the feel of her left-click projectile and the release experience of her ultimate ability.- Increase Wind Blade projectile speed from 100m/s to 150m/s and left-click damage from 50 to 55.- Increase Bolt Rush damage from 70 to 80.- After releasing Omega Hurricane (ultimate ability), the bonus health provided for herself will be increased from 350 to 450. Moreover, following its conclusion, the extra health will no longer vanish instantly but will instead diminish at a rate of 100 per secondSquirrel GirlWe're increasing the threat of Doreen and her furry friends in their ultimate ability.- Addition of a new effect to the Unbeatable Squirrel Tsunami (ultimate ability): the squirrels will rush towards the nearest enemy after bouncing instead of bouncing randomly.- Reduce the squirrel tsunami health from 600 to 300.Winter SoldierWe'll be adjusting Bucky by decreasing his long-range combat strength and increasing his survivability in medium-close range combat.- Increase the bonus health provided by Bionic Hook and Tainted Voltage from 30 to 40.- Increase Roterstern's projectile damage from 70 to 75.- Reduce the area damage from 70 to 65 and reduce damage decay from 65% at 40 meters to 60%.- Increase base health from 250 to 275.WolverineLogan will receive an increase to basic combat strength, but a slight decrease to the additional survivability after activating Undying Animal.- Increase base health from 300 to 350.- Reduce the damage reduction ratio provided by Undying Animal from 50% to 40%.Cloak & DaggerTy and Tandy will receive an increase to their healing capability as well as an expansion to the coverage area of their ultimate ability.- Reduce Dagger Storm cooldown from 15s to 12s.- Increase the number of dashes in Eternal Bond (ultimate ability) from 3 to 4.Jeff the Land SharkWe'll be adjusting the range for his ultimate ability so it now better fits the warning marker. In addition, we'll also be increasing his healing capability.- Adjust It's Jeff! (ultimate ability) range from a 10m sphere to a 10m radius, 5m high cylindrical spell field.- Increase the healing of Joyful Splash from 140/s to 150/sLuna SnowWhile we've enjoyed her dropping the bass, we've made adjustments to Luna's ultimate ability to prevent players from abusing its healing capabilities.- Increase the interval for switching between healing and damage in Fate of Both Worlds from 0.1s to 0.5s.MantisWe'll be making Mantis a bit less fleet-footed, reducing her roaming support capability.- Reduce Nature's Favor (passive) movement boost from 2.5m/s to 1.5m/s.Rocket RaccoonRocket could use an enhancement to his healing capability. - Increase the healing of Repair Mode from 60 per/s to 70 per/s.Hawkeye Black WidowTo further tone down Hawkeye's oppression, we' ll be reducing his seasonal buff.- Reduce Hawkeye's season bonus from 20% to 15%.Hela Thor LokiMuch like Hawkeye, Hela's overwhelming power will be receiving a slight reduction.- Reduce Hela's season bonus from 20% to 15%.Luna Snow- NamorWe'll be increasing the threat of Namor's Frozen Spawn.- Increase Frozen Spawn damage from 25 to 27.- Increase Frozen Spawn slowing effect applied to hit enemies from 25% to 30%.- Increase berserk state Frozen Spawn damage from 16 to 18.Rocket Raccoon The Punisher Winter SoldierOne of Rocket's best tools will be available more often!- Reduce the cooldown of Ammo Invention from 45s to 40s.Scarlet Witch - MagnetoA bit underwhelming, the damage capability of this father-daughter Team-Up ability will be enhanced.- Increase Metallic Fusion projectile damage from 55 to 60.- Increase Metallic Fusion spell field damage from 30 to 35.Thor Storm Captain AmericaArticle continues belowWe'll be enhancing the damage capability of Storm's side of this Team-Up ability.- Reduce the cooldown of Charged Gale from 20s to 15s.- Increase the damage of Charged Gale from 50 to 55.For more on Marvel Rivals, be sure to use our Promo Codes guide to earn yourself a free Iron Man skin, and snag a free spray for celebrating 20 million players.For the latest breaking news and stories from across the globe from the Daily Star, sign up for our newsletters.RECOMMENDED

Fans have taken to Reddit to predict the release date for the next GTA 6 trailer, with some dates appearing more than others but is predicting Rockstar's movements a fool's game?Tech10:44, 09 Jan 2025When will we get our next glimpse at GTA 6?(Image: Still)GTA 6 will be the biggest game of 2025 (as long as it doesn't get delayed into 2026), but you'd be forgiven for thinking Rockstar has forgotten all about it.Despite the game being expected to pull in billions of dollars in sales figures, the studio isn't ready to talk about it just yet, and we've had more than a year of silence since that first trailer.Now, fans are putting together Trailer 2 release date suggestions over on Reddit and, while we're not sure anyone can predict Rockstar's moves, there are some neat theories about when we'll see fresh footage.In the post above, one enterprising GTA fan has taken the data from a Reddit thread asking fans to predict the GTA 6 Trailer 2 release date.The most common date is February 14, which was suggested as it's Valentines Day. The romance-themed holiday makes sense for a game where Lucia and Jason, the game's two protagonists, are expected to embark on a Bonnie & Clyde style adventure across Vice City and beyond.Speaking of Bonnie & Clyde, another common pick was May 23. That ties in with the date the real outlaws were killed by police in 1934, so the idea of Lucia and Jason's doomed romance mirroring their real-life inspiration makes some degree of sense.Others suggested April Fool's Day, which would be a fun way to throw people off the scent, while some joked that players will be playing the game before they get a second trailer at this rate.One suggested GTA 6 could see a new trailer reveal at the 2025 Superbowl, which is February 9.Fans are itching for fresh news, but leaks have begun popping up in recent weeks.Article continues belowFor the latest breaking news and stories from across the globe from the Daily Star, sign up for our newsletters.RECOMMENDED

There have been no updates on Pokmon Legends Z-A since its reveal in last years Pokmon Presents (The Pokmon Company)A number of gaming showcases are expected to air in the next couple of months, including a Pokmon Presents to confirm a release date for Pokmon Legends Z-A.One of the few Nintendo Switch (and almost certainly Nintendo Switch 2) games currently scheduled for 2025 is Pokmon Legends: Z-A, a follow-up to 2022s Pokmon Legends: Arceus.Its been almost a year since its reveal teaser and while we know some details about it, Pokmon Legends: Z-A remains mostly a mystery. Some alleged info did leak as part of the Game Freak terahack last October, but none of it can be considered concrete since plans can change mid-development.Something more official should hopefully drop in the coming months, though, especially after the release date appeared to leak via a listing on Amazon UK.When will Pokmon Legends: Z-A release?At the time of writing, Amazon UK has Pokmon Legends: Z-A marked for a December 31 release, which is the go-to placeholder for games that lack an exact date.However, at some point on January 8, the listing was updated to say the game will launch on Friday, August 15. Its unclear how long this was the case, until the listing reverted to how it was before, but naturally a couple of X users grabbed screenshots of it for posterity.Its unclear why this happened but its perfectly possible that Amazon is aware of the actual release date and updated the listing too early, which is something that often happens with retailers.August isnt traditionally a busy time for big new game releases but its not unheard of, especially as 2025 is likely to see a lot of unusual activity due to the launch of the Switch 2 and GTA 6s expected autumn release.A quick glance through the series history shows some Pokmon games have launched in August before, though theyve only ever been spin-offs like Pokmon Rumble U and mobile app Pokmon Masters EX. Although Pokmon Legends: Z-A and its predecessor seem more like spin-offs they are officially classified as mainline entries.Over on Reddit, its been suggested an August 15 release is unlikely since that happens to be the week of Obon, an annual festival and holiday in Japan. So, it might be an awkward time to launch a new Pokmon game if most people are out celebrating.When is the next Pokmon Presents showcase?Fortunately, we should get a clearer answer from The Pokmon Company during this years Pokmon Day on February 27. For the past few years, the company has held a Pokmon Presents showcase that day to show off upcoming games and products, so its safe to assume this will be the case for 2025.In fact, a recent update to mobile game Pokmon GO includes references to a Pokmon Presents tie-in event. While it doesnt mention an exact date for it, the fact theres data referencing it suggests developer Niantic intends to launch the event in the next month or so.Any upcoming showcase will undoubtedly feature Pokmon Legends Z-A, alongside updates to long-running titles like Pokmon Unite and Pokmon Masters EX.When is the next PS5 State of Play?The next couple of months are expected to be busy for gaming showcases in general. Many are hoping to see the Nintendo Switch 2 finally be revealed before the end of January, although one insider has suggested the next Nintendo presentation will only focus on the Xenoblade Chronicles X remaster.More TrendingElsewhere, there is also chatter of a new Xbox showcase happening in January, with leaker eXtas1s claiming itll take place on January 23. This would make sense since Microsoft has held Xbox Developer Direct livestreams in January the past two years.This leaves Sony as the odd one out, since there arent even rumours of a PlayStation showcase happening any time soon. Sonys State of Play livestreams do typically happen within the first three months of the year, so there should hopefully be something for PlayStation fans by at least March. The first big reveals of 2025 are hopefully closer than they feel (Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft/Metro)Emailgamecentral@metro.co.uk, leave a comment below,follow us on Twitter, andsign-up to our newsletter.To submit Inbox letters and Readers Features more easily, without the need to send an email, just use ourSubmit Stuff page here.For more stories like this,check our Gaming page.GameCentralExclusive analysis, latest releases, and bonus community content.This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Your information will be used in line with our Privacy Policy

hat extra button on the bottom right is one of the few things Nintendos managed to keep under wraps (Reddit)Accessory company Genki has contributed to the Nintendo Switch 2 rumour mill, as fans think theyve found proof to support a January reveal.With every day that passes, Nintendos silence on its Nintendo Switch 2 console only becomes more baffling. Perhaps the only thing thats more confusing is why accessory manufacturer Genki, and others, keeps boldly sharing information.While details of the Switch 2s design and functionality have already been leaked by anonymous sources, Genki began showing off an allegedly accurate replica of the console during CES 2025 this week.The replicas design lines up with a lot of the leaks, including new magnetic Joy-Con controllers and a larger USB-C port. Now, Genki has publicly revealed further details and seems to have an explanation for the Joy-Cons mysterious new C button.Speaking with IGN, a Genki representative shared a rumour circulating among other accessory companies that the button is related to some kind of camera functionality.While they couldnt verify what the button actually does, nor whether the Switch 2 even has a camera, there was a similar rumour floating around in 2023. Back then, it was suggested the console would possess AR functionality similar to the Nintendo 3DS.Having a built-in camera would help give the Switch 2 its own identity, beyond just being a stronger and slightly bigger Switch. Nintendo is also bound to use it for lots of unlikely new ideas, in their own games.That said, none of the other recent leaks have mentioned camera functionality so far. Other theories for the button posit its related to a new chat function or something that lets the Switch 2 connect to its dock wirelessly.Its also worth pointing out that the Genki replica doesnt have the letter C on its mystery button. Although its unclear if thats just a mistake or not. With any luck, these magnetic controllers wont be as susceptible to drifting issues (X)Genki has also reaffirmed how the new Joy-Cons connect to the side of the Switch 2 using magnets, with the large buttons on the back acting as a release trigger.As such, Joy-Cons for the original Switch likely wont be compatible with the Switch 2. Although Genki believes that old Joy-Cons will work with the new console; they just cant be attached to it, adding that several accessory companies are expecting this to be the case.Furthermore, its believed the Switch 2 wont be compatible with the original Switchs dock and, in a separate interview with The Verge, CEO Eddie Tsai confirmed that, as far as he understood, the controllers have a new optical sensor that allow them to function like a computer mouse.When will Nintendo announce the Switch 2?At this point, all anyone wants to know is when Nintendo will formally announce the Switch 2, so we can get a release date, price, and find out about the games. Although theres no guarantee that all of that will be announced during the unveiling.More TrendingNintendo has already said an announcement will happen before the end of March, and there have been rumblings of a reveal taking place later this month.Recently, Redditors spotted listings for multiple SKUs (stock keeping units) for Switch 2 SD microcards and accessories on retailer GameStops system.Many hope this means GameStop is preparing for pre-orders and thus a Switch 2 reveal in the very near future. Especially since the prevailing theory is that the console is launching in April. With all these mock-ups and replicas, all thats left to surprise fans is the actual games (Amazon)Emailgamecentral@metro.co.uk, leave a comment below,follow us on Twitter, andsign-up to our newsletter.To submit Inbox letters and Readers Features more easily, without the need to send an email, just use ourSubmit Stuff page here.For more stories like this,check our Gaming page.GameCentralExclusive analysis, latest releases, and bonus community content.This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Your information will be used in line with our Privacy Policy