What a day Rocket Report: Starship experiences a RUD; Blue Origin nails its debut launch "The computed numbers below prove that this is quite feasible with margins to spare." Eric Berger Jan 17, 2025 7:00 am | 3 Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launches from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station early on Thursday morning. Credit: Blue Origin Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launches from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station early on Thursday morning. Credit: Blue Origin Story textSizeSmallStandardLargeWidth *StandardWideLinksStandardOrange* Subscribers only Learn moreWelcome to Edition 7.27 of the Rocket Report! Thursday was an eventful day in super heavy lift launch, with Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket having a highly successful debut launch before dawn in Florida, at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Then, on Thursday afternoon, an upgraded Starship took flight from South Texas. The first stage performed well, but the Starship upper stage experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly during its ascent. Ars will, of course, have full and ongoing coverage.As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets, as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.RFA receives launch license. The UK Civil Aviation Authority has issued Rocket Factory Augsburg a vertical launch license to conduct the inaugural flight of its RFA ONE rocket from SaxaVord Spaceport in Scotland, European Spaceflight reports. The license is for the launch of the company's RFA One rocket, which has an advertised payload of 1.3 metric tons to low-Earth orbit. RFA said it intends to complete the launch sometime this year.A new era for BritSpace... The company might have launched sooner, but last year, a fire during testing destroyed the rockets first stage, forcing RFA to build a replacement before proceeding with the initial launch attempt. An orbital-class rocket has never launched in a vertical configuration before from the United Kingdom, and no rocket has ever successfully reached orbit from there. "This is a new era for aerospace, and granting the first vertical launch license from UK soil builds toward a historic milestone for the nation," said Rob Bishton, chief executive of the civil authority. (submitted by EllPeaTea)Chinese rocket launches from sea platform. China launched a Jielong-3 solid rocket from a mobile sea platform late Sunday, successfully placing 10 Centispace navigation enhancement satellites into orbit, Space News reports. This was the fifth Jielong-3 (or Smart Dragon-3) solid propellant rocket, and it lifted off from a specially converted sea barge off the coast of Haiyang city in the Eastern province of Shandong.Seeking to scale up quickly... The launch was carried out using facilities belonging to the Haiyang Eastern spaceport for sea launches. The spaceport plans more than 10 for 2025, having conducted six sea launches in 2024. The launch was Chinas second orbital launch attempt of 2025 and the second success in as many tries. The Ars Technica Rocket Report The easiest way to keep up with Eric Berger's and Stephen Clark's reporting on all things space is to sign up for our newsletter. We'll collect their stories and deliver them straight to your inbox.Sign Me Up!Utah considering a spaceport. State Sen. Jerry Stevenson has introduced a bill to form a committee that would investigate whether Utah should invest in a spaceport and what benefits it could bring to the state, KUTV Salt Lake City reports. The legislation would provide $500,000 for a committee to study the potential benefits of a launch site. Stevenson said the committee would look into both scientific uses and opportunities to expand Utahs tourism industry, but questions remain over whether such a taxpayer-funded investment makes financial sense.Something to build on... When asked how the state would get a return on its investment, Stevenson said the spaceport would align with Utahs current industries and infrastructure. "We think that this fits very well into whats going on in the state of Utah and whats already here and what we can build on," Stevenson said. Still, critics wondered if the state should focus on space tourism, especially given the potential costs, possibly on the order of hundreds of millions of dollars.Stoke Space goes nova in fundraising round. The Washington-based launch company announced Wednesday that it had raised $260 million in Series C funding, a significant capital raise at a time when it has become more difficult for some space companies to attract funding, Ars reports. "The market is tough, but I think what were doing is poised to go straight to the end state of the industry, and I think investors recognize that," said Andy Lapsa, Stoke Space's co-founder and chief executive officer.Full reuse right out of the gate... By "end state of the industry," Lapsa means that Stoke is developing a fully reusable medium-lift rocket named Nova. The vehicle's first stage will land vertically, similar to a Falcon 9 rocket, and the second stage, which has a novel metallic heat shield and engine design, will also land back on Earth. Historically, it is unlikely for a company to move from engine testing to a first orbital launch attempt in the same year, so a Nova debut in 2026 seems more likely. Nevertheless, the new funding from investors signals confidence that Stoke is making credible technical progress on its vehicle development. (submitted by EllPeaTea)The initial launch plan for Neutron. Rocket Lab is closing in on the completion of its Neutron rocket, and the company plans to launch the medium-lift booster for the first time later this year. With a capacity of 13 metric tons to low-Earth orbit, the rocket will be sold at a cost of $50 million to undersell SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket for megaconstellation launches. Falcon 9 can launch 17.5 metric tons to LEO in a reusable configuration, which is often a higher capability than the customer needs, Payload reports. So on a price-per-launch basis, if Neutron can deliver, it could provide credible competition.A slow ramp-up... Rocket Lab intends to launch a single Neutron this year, followed by three rockets in 2026 and five in 2027. This may not be as flashy as saying the company will ramp up to a dozen rockets next year, but I appreciate the realism in launch cadence. Companies never increase their launch cadence as quickly as they say they will. However, speaking of realism, it's realistic to question whether Neutron will actually make it to the launch pad this year. I'd bet no, but I'd love to be proven wrong.Two lunar landers launch on Falcon 9. A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida early Wednesday and deployed two commercial lunar landers on separate trajectories to reach the Moon in the next few months, Ars reports. It took about an hour and a half for the Falcon 9 rocket to release both payloads into two slightly different orbits, ranging up to 200,000 and 225,000 miles (322,000 and 362,000 kilometers) from Earth.A lunar double shot... The two robotic lunar landersone from Firefly Aerospace based near Austin, Texas, and another from the Japanese space company ispacewill use their own small engines for the final maneuvers required to enter orbit around the Moon in the coming months. Firefly and ispace reported that their landers, each about the size of an SUV, were healthy as ground teams in Texas and Japan activated the spacecraft soon after their separation from the Falcon 9 launch vehicle.ArianeGroup completes Prometheus engine test. Although it was not revealed until January 9, ArianeGroup completed a successful hot fire test of the Prometheus rocket engine in late December 2024, European Spaceflight reports. European Space Agency Director General Josef Aschbacher referred to the "very important" test during his annual press briefing. Afterward, an ESA spokesperson confirmed that the test had taken place on December 19 on the PF20 test bench at the ArianeGroup facilities in Vernon, France.A nominal test... The test of the liquid oxygen and biomethane engine lasted for 41 seconds, with the engine reaching 100 percent of its thrust. Prometheus is slated to initially power the Themis reusable booster demonstrator, a project also being developed by ArianeGroup under an ESA contract. In addition to its use by Themis, Prometheus will also be utilized by ArianeGroup subsidiary MaiaSpace to power its partially reusable Maia rocket. (submitted by EllPeaTea)The hidden MVP of SpaceX's high cadence. On any given day, SpaceX is probably launching a Falcon 9 rocket, rolling one out to the launch pad, or bringing one back into port. With three active Falcon 9 launch pads and an increasing cadence at the Starbase facility in Texas, SpaceX's teams are often doing all three. The company achieved another milestone last Friday with the 25th successful launch and landing of a single Falcon 9 booster. This rocket, designated B1067, launched a batch of 21 Starlink Internet satellites from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. Ars has reported on these rocket reuse milestones before, but SpaceX is breaking its own records so often that we've dialed back our coverage.Building a lot of upper stages... SpaceX's accomplishment of 25 flights offers an opportunity to step back and take in some context. Although everyone focuses on reuse, SpaceX is still building new second stages for every launch. The task of building so many spaceships in a year is a tall order. While SpaceX's competency with reusing Falcon 9 boosters gets a lot of attentionlanding a rocket is still incredible, even after seeing it nearly 400 timesthe high-rate manufacturing of Falcon 9 upper stages is the secret MVP. It also suggests that the company's goal to build 100 Starships a year is not crazy.New Glenn makes a triumphant first flight. For the first time since its founding nearly a quarter of a century ago, Blue Origin has reached orbit. The long-awaited debut launch of the New Glenn rocket, a super-heavy lift vehicle developed largely with private funding, was a smashing success in its debut launch early on Thursday morning, Ars reports. The launch occurred a little more than one hour into the launch window. Liftoff was delayed, at first, by an unspecified issue with properly chilling the BE-4 engines ahead of launch. Then there was a wayward boat.No landing, no problem... Ultimately, the rocket launched at 2:03 am in the morning, local time, at Florida's Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. The first and second stages both appeared to perform nominally, and the Blue Ring pathfinder was put into its intended orbit. The only downer came a bit later when Blue Origin's Ariane Cornell confirmed that the first stage did not successfully return to a drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean. But no one who really understands the difficulties of launching and landing rockets believed that Blue Origin would succeed in catching its first orbital booster, and the company deserves credit for making the attempt rather than criticism for failing to stick the landing.How to do Artemis without SLS or Starship. There has been a lot of discussion about potential changes to the Artemis Program under the incoming Trump administration, including on Ars. In The Space Review, engineer Ajay Kothari offers an architecture that is based on the Falcon Heavy rocket rather than NASA's Space Launch System or SpaceX's Starship rocket. "The computed numbers below prove that this is quite feasible with margins to spare," Kothari wrote about using Falcon Heavy to get Orion to the Moon. "Although three dockings in LEO would be required for the Orion, there is no refueling need and it is a much smaller number than the Starship HLS refueling estimates."There is a catch... Because there is always a catch, right? Kothari writes: "The lander would have to be built by NASA. It would be like the Apollo 17 Lunar Module, called Challenger, which carried two astronauts to the surface from LLO. It had a mass of 16.5 tons, so the new one here is bookkept at 18 tons wet mass, including higher consumable for a 6.5-day stay." If we're being realistic, if NASA were to put out a call for bids for a lunar lander tomorrow, it would not have one in hand before the end of the decade at the very earliest. So if NASA is going to the lunar surface in the 2020s, it's likely Starship or bust.Upgraded Ariane booster to undergo tests. The European Space Agency will begin testing the P160 solid-fuel booster in March 2025, European Spaceflight reports. The booster, which is to be strapped onto the Ariane 6 rocket, will replace the current P120 booster and will be a key element in enabling Arianespace to deliver on an 18-launch contract for Amazon. For 16 of its 18 missions for Amazon to launch Project Kuiper satellites, the Ariane 6 rocket will launch with four of the more powerful boosters.Don't forget about Vega... The P160 motor will replace the P120 booster currently in service. The upgraded boosters will increase the capacity of the Ariane 6 rocket by about 2 tons to low-Earth orbit. In addition to Ariane 6, the P160 boosters will also be utilized by Avio aboard the upgraded Vega C+ and the companys next-generation Vega E rocket. (submitted by EllPeaTea)Next three launchesJan. 18: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-8 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 15:57 UTCJan. 21:Falcon 9 | Starlink 13-1 | Kennedy Space Center, Florida | 05:13 UTCJan. 22: Falcon 9 | Starlink 11-6 | Vandenberg Space Force Base, Calif. | 14:38 UTCEric BergerSenior Space EditorEric BergerSenior Space Editor Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to NASA policy, and author of two books: Liftoff, about the rise of SpaceX; and Reentry, on the development of the Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston. 3 Comments

In the world of programming, technical chops have always been the golden ticket. But over the years, some of the best programmers Ive hired and worked with didnt come from computer science backgrounds. They came from the humanities -- music, philosophy, literature. These liberal arts grads brought a fresh perspective to programming, one thats not always easy to find.And as generative AI changes the game, this edge will only become more valuable. With AI handling the ABCs of programming -- the line-by-line code writing -- whats left is the harder stuff: understanding problems deeply, communicating with stakeholders, and designing solutions that make sense in the real world.Programming Isnt Just About CodeProgramming has never been purely about logic. Sure, you need what used to be called left-brain skill -- the ability to translate technical specs into precise code. But a programmers real value comes when they push beyond that: recognizing patterns, solving complex problems, and seeing connections that others miss.I first noticed this long ago. A talented colleague used to entertain a roomful of fellow IT workers by playing and singing Eric Clapton tunes. He was also a gifted coder, capable of recognizing patterns, and solving problems in a different way.Related:Programming is a creative process, not unlike music. The notes matter, but so does knowing when to riff, how to structure, and how to build something thats more than the sum of its parts. Its no coincidence that the best developer I ever worked with, period, was a music major.Liberal arts majors dont come to work burdened with technical rigidity. Theyve spent their time dissecting ideas, making connections between concepts, and thinking critically. Theyve honed their writing and storytelling. Those skills are incredibly valuable, especially now.GenAI Is Changing the JobGenAI is fundamentally changing what it means to be a programmer. Tools like GitHub Copilot and Googles Gemini can write code, debug simple issues, and automate many of the tasks that used to take up time. But AI doesnt know how to ask the right questions, interpret user needs, or mold its output into something that makes sense in a broader context. Thats still a human job.The role of the programmer is evolving, possibly splitting into two paths. There will always be a place for the hardcore programmer with a computer science background, someone to make systems talk to one another. For others, call them citizen programmers, the work is no longer just about writing code line by line; its about knowing how to work with AI, guiding it, and knowing when and where human input is most needed.Related:This is where that liberal arts mindset comes in -- being able to understand the nuances, think critically about user experience, explain things simplistically, and piece together ideas in new ways.Preparing for the AI FutureSo, what should businesses do with this insight? First, its time to rethink talent and look for people who can adapt, think on their feet, and see the big picture. This outreach could start at the university level where IT recruiters begin visiting leading liberal arts and music colleges in addition to the traditional technical schools on their lists.We also need to recognize that the most valuable skills dont always show up on a resume. How do you measure the ability to see a new solution that nobody else considered? Or the capacity to understand what a user is really asking for, even if they cant quite articulate it? These are the skills that will matter most, even if they dont fit neatly into a job description.And once these new minds are hired, theres a need to change how we approach development within our teams. AI isnt going to stop evolving, and neither can we. For the next few years, people will focus on learning how to use these new tools. But beyond that, itll be about figuring out how to create with them. And thats going to require people who arent afraid to question how things have always been done.Related:All this change isnt mere theory; its happening right now. Instead of looking for people who tick all the technical boxes, Im looking for those who bring a creative mindset to the table. Hiring cannot be merely about pulling in more STEM graduates. It must be about building an environment where people with different backgrounds can work together to solve problems.The future of tech work will be shaped by those who can use AI to amplify their creativity, their empathy, and their ability to solve tough problems. In my experience, thats often the person with a background in the humanities.

MindNeurologist Adam Zeman's excellent exploration of the power and complexity of our imaginations literally needs more space to house all its riches 15 January 2025 Maarten Wouters/Getty ImagesThe Shape of Things UnseenAdam Zeman (Bloomsbury Circus)Just imagine! No, seriously, just imagine: an apple, perhaps, or a cartful of apples, or even a kingdom in which monstrous apples are fought by oranges on horseback. Our imaginations are capable of this and much more. They are responsible for films, novels and paintings, as well as buildings, computers and governments. They are unfathomably powerful.And yet the imaginings themselves are gossamer hard to hold onto, hard to pin down. I might be able to describe the apple I am thinking of, but what about the feeling I can

Last week, when Mark Zuckerberg announced Meta would be ending third-party fact-checking, it was a shocking pivot, but not exactly surprising. Its just the latest example of a billionaire flip-flop affecting our social lives on the internet. After January 6th, Zuckerberg bragged to Congress about Facebooks industry-leading fact-checking program and banned President Trump from the platform. But just two years later, he welcomed Trump back. And last year Zuckerberg was privately reassuring conservative rep Jim Jordan that Meta will no longer demote questionable content while its being fact-checked. Now, not only is Meta ending fact-checking completely, it is loosening rules around hate speech, allowing horrendous personal attacks on migrants or trans people, for example, on its platforms. And Zuckerberg isnt the only social media CEO careening all over the road: Elon Musk, since buying Twitter in 2022 and touting free speech as the bedrock of a functioning democracy, has suspended journalists, restored tens of thousands of banned users (including White Nationalists), brought back political advertising, and weakened verification and harassment policies. Unfortunately, these capricious billionaires can do whatever they want because of an ownership model that privileges singular, centralized control in exchange for shareholder returns. And this has led to a constantly shifting, opaque digital environment in which people can lose their communication pathways and livelihoods in a second, with no recourse as the rules shift. The internet doesnt need to be like this. But as luck would have it, a new way is emerging just in time. If youve heard of Bluesky, youve probably heard of it as a clone of Twitter where liberals can take refuge. But under the hood its structured fundamentally differently in a way that could point us to a healthier internet for everyone, regardless of politics or identity. Just like email, Bluesky sits on top of an open protocol. In practice, that means that anyone can build on it. Just like you wouldnt need anyones permission to start a newsletter company built on email, people are starting to share remixed versions of their social media feed, built on Bluesky. This sounds like a small thing, but think about all the harms done by social media companies through their algorithms in the last decade: insurrection, radicalization, self-harm, bullying. Similarly, Bluesky enables users to share blocklists and labels, to collaborate on verification and moderation. Letting people shape their own experience of social media is nothing short of revolutionary. And importantly, if you decide that you dont agree with Blueskys design and moderation decisions, you can build something else on the same infrastructure and use that instead. This is fundamentally different from the dominant, centralized social media that has come before. At the core of Blueskys philosophy is the idea that instead of being centralized in the hands of one person or institution, social media governance should obey the principle of subsidiarity. Nobel Prize-winning economist Elinor Ostrom found, through studying grassroots solutions to local environmental problems around the world, that some problems are best solved locally, while others are best solved at a higher level. In terms of content moderation, posts related to CSAM or terrorism are best handled by professionals keeping millions or billions safe. But a lot of decisions about speech can be solved in each community, or even user by user by assembling a Bluesky blocklist. So all the right elements are currently in place at Bluesky to usher in this new architecture for social media: independent ownership, newfound popularity, a stark contrast with other dominant platforms, and right-minded leadership. But challenges remain, and we cant count on Bluesky doing this right without support. Critics have pointed out that Bluesky has yet to turn a profit and is currently running on venture capital, the same corporate structure that brought us Facebook, Twitter, and other social media companies. As of now, theres no option to exit Bluesky and take your data and network with you, because there are no other servers that run the AT Protocol. Bluesky CEO Jay Graber deserves credit for her stewardship so far, and for attempting to avoid the dangers of advertising incentives. But the process of capitalism degrading tech products is so predictable that Cory Doctorow coined a now-popular term for it: enshittification. Thats why we need to act now to secure the foundation of this digital future and make it enshittification-proof.Free Our Feeds. There are three parts: First, Free Our Feeds wants to create a nonprofit foundation to govern and protect the AT Protocol, outside of Bluesky the company. We also need to build redundant servers so anyone can leave with their data or build anything they wantregardless of policies set by Bluesky. Finally, we need to spur the development of a whole ecosystem built on this tech with seed money and expertise. Its worth noting that this is not a hostile takeover: Bluesky and Graber recognize the importance of this effort and have signaled their approval. But the point is, this effort cant rely on them. To free us from fickle billionaires, some of the power has to reside outside Bluesky Inc. If we get this right, so much is possible. Not too long ago, the internet was full of builders and people working together: the open web. Email. Podcasts. Wikipedia is one of the best examples a collaborative project to create one of the webs best free, public resources. And the reason we still have it today is the infrastructure built up around it: the nonprofit Wikimedia Foundation protects the project and insulates it from the pressures of capitalism. Whens the last time we collectively built anything as good? We can shift the balance of power and reclaim our social lives from these companies and their billionaires. This an opportunity to bring much more independence, innovation, and local control to our online conversations. We can finally build the Wikipedia of social media, or whatever we want. But we need to act, because the future of the internet cant depend on whether one of the richest men on earth wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. Eli Pariser is author of The Filter Bubble and co-director of New_ Public, a nonprofit R&D lab thats working to reimagine social media. Deepti Doshi is a co-director of New_ Public and was a director at Meta.

A fire broke out at California's Moss Landing Power Plant on Thursday.The Monterey County Sheriff's Office urged residents near the plant to evacuate.40% of the battery plant has burned, according to a Sheriff's Office spokesperson.A major fire has broken out at one of the world's largest battery storage plants, located in California.The Monterey County Sheriff's Office said the North County Fire Protection District was responding to a fire at the Moss Landing Power Plant in an X post on Thursday.Moss Landing is about 270 miles from Los Angeles, where wildfires have been ravaging the city for more than a week.Out of an "abundance" of caution, it urged residents in nearby areas to close windows and doors, shut off air systems until further notice, and avoid the area so that emergency vehicles could respond.A few hours later, it issued evacuation orders for areas of the plant and shut down parts of California's Highway 1.A Monterey County Sheriff's Office spokesperson told KSBW 8 that 40% of the battery plant had burned.A law enforcement spokesperson told CNN that efforts were being made to limit the fire.They said the fire broke out at about 3 p.m. local time, and that evacuation orders were issued at 6:30 p.m. due to concerns about hazardous materials and potential chemical spills.Over 2,000 individuals were instructed to evacuate, they added.Neither Vistra Energy, the plant's owner, nor the Monterey County Sheriff's Office specified the cause of the fire, and they didn't respond to Business Insider requests for comments made outside working hours.Monterey County Supervisor Glenn Church told KSBW-TV that this was the "worst-case scenario" and a "very severe" situation. But he said he didn't expect the fire to spread beyond the concrete building it was enclosed in.Even so, "there's no way to sugarcoat it," he added. "This is a disaster."The National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area said heat signature could be seen in satellite imagery.Jenny Lyon, a spokesperson for Vistra Energy, told Politico that the cause of the fire has yet to be identified but that an inquiry would begin once it's extinguished.In a press release announcing the plant's expansion in 2023, Texas-based Vistra Energy said it was one of the world's largest battery storage plants.It's not the first time the facility has experienced fires, power outages, or technical issues. In 2015, a transmission tower at the power plant collapsed, resulting in a significant power outage.A failing heat detector also caused damage to the battery complex in 2021, and in 2022 a fire broke out at a nearby Pacific Gas & Electric-owned battery plant.North Monterey County Unified School District said all of the county's schools and offices would be closed on Friday due to the fire.Thursday's fire comes as wildfires across Los Angeles area have ravaged over 40,000 acres and killed at least 25 people.AccuWeather has put the total estimated cost of the LA wildfires at $250 to $275 billion.This is a developing story. Please check for updates.

Donald Trump did not win the 2024 election the Democratic Party lost it.So argues Michael Podhorzer, a former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the highly influential Substack, Weekend Reading.Podhorzers recently published newsletter on how Trump won he insists on those quotation marks garnered lots of attention among Democratic insiders. In it, he explains that America didnt shift rightward in 2024 but couchward. American voters basic values or priorities did not become more conservative. Democrats lost merely because turnout among anti-MAGA voters collapsed.Podhorzer does not pair his diagnosis of the Democrats woes with any detailed prescription for remedying them. But he suggests that the party does not need to move right: Its task isnt to win over swing voters who sympathize with the Republican message on immigration, crime, inflation, or any other issue. Rather, it is to mobilize young, disaffected anti-Trump voters by alerting them to the dangers of Republican rule and addressing their desire for systemic change.The demobilization of such voters in 2024 had two primary causes, in Podhorzers account: First, the media, the Biden administration, and Democrats in Congress all failed to convey the existential dangers that a second Trump administration posed. And second, justifiable disaffection and anger with a billionaire-captured system left many anti-MAGA voters too cynical to bother with the electoral process.Some aspects of Podhorzers analysis are both correct and salutary. He is right to insist that the 2024 election did not reveal a broad mandate for the conservative movements agenda. Trumps national margin was exceptionally narrow and Republicans just barely managed to eke out a House majority. This said, I think Podhorzers big-picture take is wrong. Democrats problem in 2024 was not merely that it failed to mobilize cynical, anti-Trump voters. The party also lost the arguments over inflation, immigration, and crime to the Republican Party. Trump did not convert a supermajority of Americans to conservatism. But he did convince a critical slice of voters that he was the better option on at least some of the issues that they cared about most.There are (at least) three problems with Podhorzers analysis:1) Voters who backed Biden in 2020 and then stayed home in 2024 are not necessarily resolutely anti-Trump.Podhorzers argument assumes that Biden voters who stayed home in 2024 could not have done so out of sympathy for any of Trumps messages. But theres little basis for that assumption. Low-propensity voters are less ideological than reliable ones, and voters often choose to sit out elections because they are conflicted, agreeing with some of what each party has to say. Theres reason to think that this dynamic drove part of the Democrats turnout problem in 2024: Both polling and geographical voting patterns indicate that low-propensity voters became more Republican-leaning during the Biden era. 2) Young, first-time voters turned against the Democratic Party.The electorates youngest voters appear to have been far more right-wing in 2024 than in 2020. This is not a problem that can be attributed to mobilization. Republicans seem to have simply had greater success in appealing to first-time voters last year than they have for a long time. 3) In the Biden era, American voters did become more conservative in some of their values and priorities.Contrary to Podhorzers suggestion, there is considerable evidence that voters grew more right-wing in their attitudes toward immigration and criminal justice and more likely to prioritize those issues. Meanwhile, the electorate also grew more confident in the GOPs economic judgement.Given these realities, if Democrats accept Podhorzers thesis and conclude that they do not need to win over Republican-curious voters, but can win solely by mobilizing staunch anti-Trumpers desperate for systemic change they will likely have a more difficult time winning White House in 2028.Perhaps more importantly, unless Democrats manage to win over some Trump voters, they will have little hope of winning back Senate control. It is worth remembering that Joe Bidens 2020 coalition only delivered a bare majority in Congress upper chamber and that majority hinged on the fluke that was Joe Manchin. Thus, to regain the power to pass legislation and appoint judges without Republican permission, Democrats must not only mobilize their coalition, but broaden it.RelatedThe lefts comforting myth about why Harris lostIf youre losing voters to the couch, youre probably losing arguments to the other party.The foundation of Podhorzers analysis is one incontrovertible fact: The Democratic Partys presidential vote tally fell by far more between 2020 and 2024 than the GOPs increased. Kamala Harris received 6.26 million fewer votes than Biden had in 2020, while Trump improved on his own tally from four years ago by just 3 million.When interpreting this drop in Democratic turnout, Podhorzer puts enormous weight on one survey question from AP VoteCast (which is like an exit poll, but more reliable). Each election, VoteCast asks Americans whether they voted primarily for their candidate or against the other one. Between 2020 and 2024, the percentage of Americans who said they were voting against Trump declined considerably. In raw vote terms, the survey implies that 41 million Americans cast a ballot primarily against Trump in 2020, while just 26 million did so in 2024.From these data points, Podhorzer concludes that 1) Democrats didnt lose because the American electorate moved right, but rather because their partys turnout collapsed and 2) that turnout collapse was driven more or less entirely by the demobilization of resolutely anti-Trump voters.But Podhorzers interpretation of this data is dubious. The fact that more voters said they were casting a ballot against Trump in 2020 than in 2024 does not necessarily mean that disaffected anti-Trump voters sat out the latter election en masse. For one thing, VoteCasts question forces Democrats to choose between saying they are primarily for their partys nominee or against Trump. Thus, a Democratic voter who wasnt that inspired by Biden in 2020 but was excited to elect the first Black woman president last year might have told pollsters she was primarily anti-Trump in 2020 but mainly pro-Harris in 2024. In Podhorzers framing, such a person would count as a missing anti-MAGA voter, since they contributed to the anti-Trump total in 2020 but not in 2024. But this hypothetical Democratic voter didnt go anywhere, they just became more passionate about the Democratic nominee.And Podhorzers own data suggests that a lot of Democratic voters fall into this exact bucket. According to the figures he presents from VoteCast, only 25 percent of all voters in 2020 said they were primarily pro-Biden. Four years later, 32 percent said they were mainly pro-Harris. Thus, part of the decline in the primarily anti-Trump vote is attributable to an increase in Democrats enthusiasm for their partys standard-bearer.More critically, just because a given voter cast a ballot against Trump in 2020 does not mean that they still strongly opposed him in 2024. And this seems like an especially unsafe assumption to make about a voter who chose to sit out the latter election. To be clear, it is surely true that many Biden 2020, Living Room Couch 2024 voters were staunchly anti-Trump. But its likely that some within this bloc chose to abstain last year because they had grown more sympathetic to aspects of Trumps message.As Ive previously noted, the forces that lead a partys voters to switch sides and the forces that lead them to drop out of the electorate are often largely the same. According to a study by the Ohio State University political scientist Jon Green, Obama voters who exhibited high levels of sexism or agreed with Trump on immigration, gun control, climate change, or another major issue were more likely than other Obama voters to defect to the GOP in 2016. That isnt terribly surprising. More interesting, however, is that these very same qualities made an Obama voter more likely to sit out the 2016 election. Thus, Trumps advocacy for conservative culture war positions, and exploitation of sexist resentment against Hillary Clinton, simultaneously won over some Democratic voters while demobilizing others. Greens basic finding that when voters feel more torn about the choice facing them in an election, they become less likely to turn out is buttressed by a larger body of political science research. The distinction between persuasion and mobilization is therefore a flawed one: Attempts to persuade swing voters through direct mail or television ads often have the effect of demobilizing the other partys base, likely by increasing its ambivalence.All this provides us with theoretical reasons to suspect that many missing anti-MAGA voters became more sympathetic to Republican messaging between 2020 and 2024. And empirical data reinforces this impression.Polling in 2024 consistently showed Trump gaining ground with disengaged, low-propensity Democratic voters. In May, the New York Times/Siena poll showed Biden (then, the presumptive Democratic nominee) winning only 75 percent of Democratic voters who had sat out the 2022 midterms, even as he won virtually all high-turnout Democrats.Meanwhile, last years election results showed that Democrats gained vote-share in neighborhoods that had high turnout rates in 2022 and 2020, but lost ground in neighborhoods that have chronically low turnout rates. Combined with the available polling, this seems indicative of a broad shift toward Trump among constituencies with a low propensity to vote and a history of supporting Democrats.The most intuitive explanation for this shift is inflation. Low propensity voters tend to be less partisan than reliable voters (and so, more likely to evaluate incumbents on the basis of economic conditions) and less affluent (and so, more likely to resent rapid changes in consumer prices). And a YouGov poll of disengaged voters from July 2024 found that prices and inflation were their top concern, and that they had more negative views of both the economy and Biden than engaged voters did. The kids are all right (or, more of them are than in the past)Podhorzers analysis focuses on the behavior of Biden 2020 voters. He notes that, according to VoteCast, only 4 percent of such voters backed Trump in 2024. From this, he concludes that any movement toward the GOP was negligible.But this leaves first-time voters out of the picture. And several data points indicate that such voters were sharply more conservative in 2024 than they had been in the recent past.In NBC Newss exit poll, Trump won first-time voters by 55 to 44 percent. This was a massive reversal from 2020, when Biden won them by 32 points in the same survey. And a large part of Democrats woes with first-time voters seems attributable to the declining liberalism of young Americans. In 2020, Biden won voters under 25 by 34 points, according to NBCs exit poll. Four years later, Harris won them by just 11.Exit polls are highly flawed. But Democrats performance with young voters looks even worse in more reliable data sources. For example, AP VoteCast shows Harris winning voters under 30 by just 4 points in 2024 after Biden had won them by 25 a development that suggests the youngest, newly registered voters were unusually rightwing last year.Meanwhile, election returns show that Democrats lost more ground between 2020 and 2024 in younger parts of the country than in older ones. Finally, the fact that the youngest zoomers are aberrantly conservative is also apparent in some states voter registration data. Voters 18 to 25 in North Carolina were more likely to register as Republicans than Democrats over the past four years, a break with that purple states historical pattern. It is odd that Podhorzer does not grapple more with this development, since his pre-election analysis presumed that younger voters were so reliably and overwhelmingly anti-MAGA, Democrats didnt need to worry about winning over swing voters so long as they energized Americas youth. In June 2023, he explained theres no reason to listen to those who still think Democrats need to focus on winning back Trump-leaning voters instead of simply doing everything necessary to maintain the support of those who have already rejected Trump/MAGA and continue to turn them out, along with mobilizing those voters aging into the electorate. (In the same piece, Podhorzer also argued that there was no reason to listen to those who panic at any survey which shows Biden substantially behind, as the midterm and special election results consistently show that the voters in the key Purple states reject MAGA/Trump when the choice is clear.)One could try to reconcile Gen Zs right turn with Podhorzers thesis by attributing it entirely to depressed youth turnout among young Democrats. Yet as noted above, polling suggests that politically disengaged Americans were more Republican-leaning this cycle than engaged ones. Peoples political identities tend to be most malleable when they are young. Therefore, the fact that voters who came of age under Biden were unusually likely to become Republicans seems indicative of a rightward turn in Americas political environment and one that could potentially reverberate for years to come.RelatedHow Democratic Gen Z activists lost the Gen Z voteIn the Biden era, Americans did grow more conservative in some of their views and more trustful of Republican economic managementPodhorzer suggests that America couldnt have shifted rightward because voters values and priorities are largely stable. As he writes, A collapse in support for Democrats does not mean that most Americans, especially in Blue America, are suddenly eager to live in an illiberal theocracy.But this is a strawman. No one is claiming that the typical resident of California wants to live under an American Taliban. Rather, the question is whether marginal voters those who lack strong partisan attachments became either more conservative in their issue preferences or priorities during the Biden era. And the answer seems to be yes. This is most apparent on the issue of immigration. In May 2020, 34 percent of voters told Gallup they wanted immigration increased, while just 28 percent said they want it reduced. By June 2024, support for cutting immigration had soared to 55 percent, while that for increasing it had fallen to 16 percent. This marked the first time since 2005 that a majority of Americans had supported cutting admissions.Podhorzer notes that Democrats support dropped off most steeply in blue states, and takes this as a sign that America shifted couchward rather than rightward, since he considers it implausible that voters in blue states could have become substantially more conservative.Yet polls showed voters in New York, California, and Illinois all turning against immigration over the past two years, with 58 percent of Empire State residents agreed with the statement, New Yorkers have already done enough and should try and slow the flow of migrants. Meanwhile, California passed a ballot measure in November that lengthened prison sentences for drug and theft-related crimes, while Oakland and Los Angeles ousted their progressive prosecutors. That same day, Colorado voted to increase minimum prison time for violent offenders. This punitive turn in blue-state criminal justice policy likely reflects rising popular concern with crime during the Biden era. In Gallups polling, the percentage of Americans who considered crime in the United States an extremely or serious problem jumped from 51 percent in 2020 to 63 percent in 2023.If voters grew more conservative in their attitudes toward crime and immigration during the Biden years, they also gave those issues higher priority. Between 2020 and 2024, the percentage of voters who said that immigration was very important to their vote in the Pew Research Centers polling jumped from 52 percent to 61 percent. The share who deemed violent crime very important jumped more modestly from 59 to 61 percent.Finally, it is also clear that voters came to view Republican economic management more favorably over the course of Bidens presidency. In 2020, voters told Gallup that Democrats were better able to keep America prosperous than Republicans were by a margin of 48 to 47 percent. By 2024, the GOP led on that question by a margin of 50 to 44 percent. Nostalgia for the pre-inflation, Trump economy seems to have led many voters to reevaluate the Republicans tenure. In April 2024, a CNN poll found 55 percent of Americans saying Trumps presidency had been a success, up from 41 percent in January 2021.Thus, the America of 2024 was more hostile to immigration, more hardline on criminal justice policy, and more confident in the GOPs superior economic wisdom than the America of 2020. I think that constitutes a rightward shift.Dismissing Podhorzers diagnosis of the Democrats plight does not necessarily compel one to reject his prescriptions for the partys future. It seems entirely possible that Democrats could win the White House in 2028 without moving right on any issue, not least because Biden and Harris already moderated the partys stances on immigration and crime considerably. At present, Democrats appear more likely to moderate excessively on immigration than insufficiently, with most of the party lining up behind the reckless Laken Riley Act in recent days.And Podhorzer is surely not wrong that Democrats should seek to increase the salience of Trumpisms most extreme aspects, nor that the party should speak to voters discontent with the economic system (although, it is important not to mistake anti-institutional sentiment for lockstep backing of the entire progressive economic agenda).Nevertheless, I think its important for Democrats to be clear-eyed about the nature of their problems. The partys failure to retain credibility on economic management, immigration, and crime made some Americans see MAGA in a better light. Some of that failure is attributable to bad luck. But Democrats will still be ill-equipped to preempt similar setbacks in the future if they refuse to admit that this one occurred. Trump really did win the 2024 election. Theres no use in denying it.Youve read 1 article in the last monthHere at Vox, we're unwavering in our commitment to covering the issues that matter most to you threats to democracy, immigration, reproductive rights, the environment, and the rising polarization across this country.Our mission is to provide clear, accessible journalism that empowers you to stay informed and engaged in shaping our world. By becoming a Vox Member, you directly strengthen our ability to deliver in-depth, independent reporting that drives meaningful change.We rely on readers like you join us.Swati SharmaVox Editor-in-ChiefSee More:

Elon Musk accused of faking his gaming skills in row with AsmongoldAdam StarkeyPublished January 17, 2025 11:20am Elon Musk is fired up over Path Of Exile 2 (Reuters; Asmongold TV)Suspicions around Elon Musks touted gaming skills have sparked an angered response from the SpaceX CEO, and streamer Asmongold is in the firing line.Beyond being the CEO of multiple companies and an advisor to president-elect Donald Trump, Elon Musk really wants you to know hes good at video games.He has already claimed he used to be one of the best Quake players in the world (he wasnt) and, last year, made similar, inaccurate proclamations about his skills in Diablo 4.Earlier this month, Musk claimed, through his alternate account on X, to have a high placement on the Path Of Exile 2 hardcore league rankings. But this was also brought into question after he streamed himself playing the game and seemed unaware of basic gameplay mechanics.Path Of Exile 2 streamers and Reddit users thoroughly dissected Musks gameplay for his fumbles, while highlighting oddities like a tab called Elons Map, which some have alleged could be named that way because other users are using his account.Shortly after these suspicions emerged, Musks Path Of Exile 2 hardcore character (named Percy_Verence) died at level 97. In the action role-player, which is currently in easy access, hardcore characters work on a permadeath-style mechanic, where after your first death you are demoted to the Standard League from that point on.As you might imagine, the time and skill required to climb up to level 97 in hardcore is very high, prompting further doubts that Musk got that far. Amongst the sceptics is Twitch streamer Zack Hoyt, aka Asmongold, who accused Musk of lying about his Path Of Exile 2 prowess.There is no way he played that account, Asmongold said during a stream. Like, Im sorry. I think he bought the account, or somebody played it for him. A hundred-f***ing-percent.After the clip circulated on X, Musk responded with a series of posts on the platform, alleging that the streamer is not his own man and has to ask his boss for permission before he can do anything.This seems to have been Musk getting confused about the role of Asmongolds video editors, who Musk mistook as having editorial control over Asmongolds content.Musk leaked direct messages between him and Asmongold, where the latter explained how he has editors to help upload and edit videos on his YouTube channel (which is common among popular streamers).Im on hundreds of streams on YouTube/Twitch playing live with the worlds best players, Musk added. No other way to say this, but, while Asmon IS good at caustic commentary and making fun of people, he is NOT good at video games.In response to this post which was later updated through Xs Community Notes feature to add Asmongolds achievements in World Of Warcraft Asmongold wrote: Leaking my DMs is one thing but this is absolutely uncalled for.Asmongold also talked about Musks criticism during a stream, after the SpaceX CEO unfollowed him on X. Was he probably not happy about the [Path Of Exile] video? Hell get over it, he added.Listen, it was so obvious. You cannot get mad at me for bringing this up. Everybody was talking about this. Come on, man.More TrendingWhile Musk has picked fault with Asmongold specifically, he hasnt addressed the wider doubts around his Path Of Exile 2 skills, with many other assuming that Musk either bought the account or paid someone else to play for him. Musk unfollowed Asmongold on X (Picture: Asmongold TV)Emailgamecentral@metro.co.uk, leave a comment below,follow us on Twitter, andsign-up to our newsletter.To submit Inbox letters and Readers Features more easily, without the need to send an email, just use ourSubmit Stuff page here.For more stories like this,check our Gaming page.GameCentralSign up for exclusive analysis, latest releases, and bonus community content.This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Your information will be used in line with our Privacy Policy

We invite applications for the 2025 Richard Casement internship

I wondered why Android Intelligence was polling people on whether or not they use Androids split-screen. It looks like Google is testing whether tablets running a future version of Android 16 should allow more partitions to the screen than ever before. According to Mishaal Rahman, a noted code sleuth with a knack for catching on with whats next on Android, this years software update will enable large screens running Android to split into three! That means using three apps side, by side, by side. What more could you want? Rahman took a little screen recording of the current developer preview to show the interface quirk that suggests this is coming soon. When I opened two apps in split-screen mode and then attempted to drag and drop a third app, I noticed that there were previews for three positions I could drop the app in, he writes. This suggests that Google is indeed working on implementing support for three-way split-screen multitasking in Android 16. Rahman has been pretty on-the-money with his code sleuthing in the past, which makes all this the more believable. The latest operating system version, Android 15, added desktop windowing support in last years update, so its clear that Google has been considering an eventual multi-app future. This is the first time Android would have three-apps-in-one baked directly into the source code. Other manufacturers figured it out on their own. For instance, the Open Canvas UI by OnePlus is considered an inspiration behind this since Android fans have been loudly lauding how the OnePlus Open handles multitasking. Open Canvas lets you do the same thing: run three apps simultaneously. OnePlus partitions the screen three ways, with the two dominant apps taking up 45% and 45% of screen space and the tertiary app waiting for your tap to bring its 10% sliver to the forefront. The idea is that all three apps are ready when you need them, without the visual overload.Samsungs devices also perform this kind of split-screen magic on the OneUI software, though it is not as streamlined as a screen partitioned into three pieces. On the Galaxy Z Fold 6, you can split two apps vertically on one side of the 7.6-inch inside display and one on the other half of the screen, thus running three apps. But you cant run them parallel to one another across the screen, probably because of the inside displays 4:3 aspect ratio. Like OnePluss Open Canvas feature, the ability is only available to Samsung devices.Google has yet to confirm a triple-screen mode, but its likely that something like this could be added to Androids multitasking offerings. With foldable and tablet devices making up more of the platforms product lineup, the source code must keep up with how people want to use their devices.

Huy Hoang Lock Factory / Baumschlager Eberle ArchitektenSave this picture! Trieu ChienFactory, Sustainability & Green Designtt. Quang Minh, VietnamArchitects: Baumschlager Eberle ArchitektenAreaArea of this architecture projectArea:30000 mYearCompletion year of this architecture project Year: 2024 PhotographsPhotographs:Trieu Chien Lead Architect: Dat Thanh Cung More SpecsLess SpecsSave this picture!Save this picture!Text description provided by the architects. Huy Hoang Lock Co.,Ltd. is a leading professional lock manufacturer in Vietnam. Huy Hoang Lock Factory is located in Quang Minh Industrial Zone which measures three square hectares and is about 20 km away from Hanoi. The complex factory included three buildings: two of them are used to manufacture with German technology and another one is used to manufacture with Italian technology which was connected with the front multi-purpose building.Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!The third factory was built with the expectation of becoming the symbol of innovation and stable development throughout 40 years of Huy Hoang. The expectation was put into practice by not only getting the Gold Leed Construction in the designing process but also getting the GOLD LEED operation in manufacturing. The structure of the building was designed by Core and Shell structure to create the open space inside the building.Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!Save this picture!Hanoi is quite typical for the Northern climate with the characteristics of a humid tropical monsoon climate, hot summer, heavy rain, and cold winter with little rain. Located in the tropics, Hanoi receives an abundant amount of solar radiation and high temperature all year round. To solve this problem, the facade system consists of concrete lam elements that are designed and arranged differently in density and opening angle. On the south and southeast verticals, the opening angle of the lam is extended up to 90 degrees to catch the sun and wind. Opening angles of more than 90 degrees and high densities are applied to the Northern facade system in order to reduce winter winds from the North. The sharp opening angle and the highest lam density are applied to the Western facade system to limit the amount of thermal radiation. The facade system helps the building create its own shadow to cool the building, protect it during rainy seasons, and provide natural ventilation.Save this picture!This is a factory complex designed as an open campus where public space is the top priority. The operating building is designed with open spaces, including exhibition, training spaces, and offices. The main hall is designed as a museum where visitors to the factory can explore artifacts, learn about the development history of the corporation, or simply get lost in the gallery to observe details as well as the process of creating the factory's products. The restaurant/canteen is used for guests, factory workers, and office staff and filters light through the facade system. Indeed, if the building is designed and built to serve the community and users well, it will stand the test of time.Save this picture!Project gallerySee allShow lessProject locationAddress:Quang Minh Industrial Park, Quang Minh Town, Me Linh District, Ha Noi, VietnamLocation to be used only as a reference. It could indicate city/country but not exact address.About this officeMaterialConcreteMaterials and TagsPublished on January 17, 2025Cite: "Huy Hoang Lock Factory / Baumschlager Eberle Architekten" 17 Jan 2025. ArchDaily. Accessed . <https://www.archdaily.com/1025799/huy-hoang-lock-factory-baumschlager-eberle-architekten&gt ISSN 0719-8884Save!ArchDaily?You've started following your first account!Did you know?You'll now receive updates based on what you follow! Personalize your stream and start following your favorite authors, offices and users.Go to my stream