• When Russian Radar Mistook a Norwegian Scientific Rocket for a U.S. Missile, the World Narrowly Avoided Nuclear War
    www.smithsonianmag.com
    A Black Brant XII rocket was launched from the Andoya Rocket Range in 2010, 30 years after the Norwegian rocket incident. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center via Wikimedia Commons under CC BY2.0When the Cold War ended in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union, it greatly reduced the threat of global nuclear war. But on January 25, 1995, that threat once again came front and center when Russian officers mistook a Norwegian rocket sent to study the aurora borealis for a weapon of mass destruction.While not as well known as the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the Norwegian rocket incident is considered one of the worlds closest brushes with nuclear war.In the early morning hours of January 25, a team of Norwegian and American scientists launched a Black Brant XIIfour-stage sounding rocket from Norways Andoya Rocket Range, a launch site off the countrys northwestern coast. Its purpose: to study the northern lights over Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean.Although the scientists had notified dozens of countries, including Russia, in advance of their high-altitude scientific experiment, the information never made its way to Russias radar technicians.How a Science Experiment Almost Started a Nuclear War | The Norwegian Rocket IncidentWatch on Just four years after the Cold Wars end, tensions between the former USSR and the United States remained high. So when Russian officers at the Olenegorsk Radar Station detected a fast-moving object that was traveling on a high northbound trajectory above the Barents Sea, near Russias northern border, they feared it might be a nuclear attack from U.S. submarines. After all, it was similar in speed and flight pattern to a missile. It reached an altitude of 903 miles, separating into several sections as it flew, in the same way warheads would detach from a submarine-launched Trident missile.Russias modus operandi was to identify an attack, assess it and decide whether to retaliate, all within ten minutes. Tracking the trajectory of the missile had already taken up the bulk of that time.As a result, Russian submarine commanders were put on alert and ordered to prepare for a nuclear response. Russian President Boris Yeltsin was notified and given the Cheget, Russias nuclear briefcasetypically kept near the leader of a nuclear-weapons state at all times. This holds the launch codes for the countrys missile arsenal, which can be used to order a nuclear strike. To this day, its the only known activation of a nuclear briefcase in response to a possible attack.After conferring with his top advisers, Yeltsin concluded that the rocket was heading away from Russian airspace and didnt pose any threat to the country.Twenty-four minutes after its launch, the rocket fell into the sea near Spitsbergen, the only permanently inhabited island on the Svalbard archipelago. The entire incident was over as quickly as it seemingly began.It was a harrowing false alarm, and one that had the potential to cause widespread casualties. Though the incident has largely flown beneath historys radar, it did lead to the re-evaluation and redesign of notification and disclosure protocols in both the U.S. and Russia.Get the latest stories in your inbox every weekday.Filed Under: American History, Cold War, Norway, Nuclear Power, On This Day in History, Russia , Soviet History, Warfare
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  • The IRS Starts New Tax Rule for Venmo, PayPal and CashApp. What You Need to Know
    www.cnet.com
    Listen up, freelancers. This tax season, you may receive a1099-K tax formif you made more than $5,000 through a third-party payment app such as PayPal, Venmo or Cash App.The IRS originally rolled out a plan to implement new reporting requirements for anyone earning over $600 via payment apps in 2023. After two years of delays, the tax agency has decided to implement a phased rollout, lifting the reporting threshold to $5,000 for the 2024 tax year. This story is part of Taxes 2025, CNET's coverage of the best tax software, tax tips and everything else you need to file your return and track your refund. This reporting change means if you earned over $5,000 on an app like Venmo last year, the payment platform will send you and the IRS a 1099-K form. This gives the IRS a clearer picture of how much you earned in untaxed income this year, to ensure you're paying the right amount of taxes.If you earn freelance or self-employment income, you're likely no stranger to1099 tax forms. Even if you don't receive a 1099 for untaxed income you earned, you're required to report any net earnings over $400 to the IRS when you file your tax return. The 1099-K tax change places a reporting requirement on payment apps so the IRS can keep better tabs on income earnings that might otherwise go unreported."The taxation and tax treatment requirements for taxpayers have not changed," said Mark Steber, chief tax information officer for Jackson Hewitt. "This income has always been considered by the IRS to be taxable and should be reported on a tax return." CNETWhile the IRS will be able to keep a closer eye on freelance earnings, the tax agency isn't interested in the money you're sending to your family and friends. If you pay your roommate your portion of rent through Venmo, for example, these transactions are not considered taxable.Here's everything you need to know about the new 1099-K tax reporting change.What is a 1099-K?A 1099-K is a tax form that reports income received via a third-party payment platform from a non-permanent job, such as a side hustle, freelance agreement or contractor position where taxes are not withheld.The IRS currently requires anythird-party payment apps like Cash App and Venmo to send a 1099-K to the IRS and individuals if they earned more than $20,000 in commercial payments across more than 200 transactions. If you regularly make over $20,000 in freelance income, are paid through Venmo, and receive more than 200 transactions in payments, you may have received a 1099-K tax form before.What's the reporting threshold for a 1099-K for tax year 2024?For your 2024 taxes (which you'll file in 2025), the IRS is planning a phased rollout, requiring payment apps to report freelancer and business ownerearnings over $5,000."Prior to 2024, the earnings threshold was $20,000 and 200 transactions to receive a 1099-K tax document," said Steber.Why was the IRS's 1099-K tax rule delayed?Originally set to kick off at the beginning of 2022, the IRS planned to implement a new reporting rule that would require third-party payment apps, likePayPal, Venmo or Cash App to report income of over $600 or more per yearto the tax agency. The IRS delayed this new reporting requirement in 2022 and again in 2023.Why? Distinguishing between taxable and nontaxable transactions through third-party apps isn't always easy. For example, money your roommate sends you through Venmo for dinner is not taxable, but money received for a graphic design project might be. The delayed rollout gave payment platforms more time to prepare."We spent many months gathering feedback from third-party groups and others, and it became increasingly clear we need additional time to effectively implement the new reporting requirements," said IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel in aNovember 2023 statement.Which payment apps are sending 1099-Ks?All third-partypayment apps where freelancers and business owners receive income are required to begin reporting transactions involving you to the IRS in 2024. Some popular payment apps include PayPal, Venmo and Cash App. Other platforms freelancers may use, such as Fivver or Upwork, are also on the hook to begin reporting payments that freelancers receive throughout the year.If you earn income through payment apps, it's a good idea to set up separate PayPal, Cash App or Venmo accounts for your professional transactions. This could prevent nontaxable charges -- money sent from family or friends -- from being included on your 1099-K in error.Zelle users will not receive a 1099-KThere's one popular payment app that's exempt from the 1099-K rule. Payment transfer service Zelle will not be issuing 1099-Ks, regardless of whether you receive business funds through the service or not. That's because Zelle doesn't hold your funds in an account, like PayPal, Venmo or Cash App do, and instead is used as a way to transfer money between bank accounts. If you are paid for your freelance or small business services through Zelle, it's your responsibility to report all income on Schedule C of your tax return.Will the IRS tax money you send to family or friends?No. Rumors have circulated that the IRS was cracking down on money sent to family and friends through third-party payment apps, but that isn't true. Personal transactions involving gifts, favors or reimbursements are not considered taxable. Some examples of nontaxable transactions include:Money received from a family member as a holiday or birthday giftMoney received from a friend covering their portion of a restaurant billMoney received from your roommate or partner for their share of the rent and utilitiesPayments that will be reported on a 1099-K must be flagged as payments for goods or services from the vendor. When you select "sending money to family or friends," it won't appear on your tax form. In other words, that money from your roommate for her half of the restaurant bill is safe."This is only for self-employment income," said Steber. "You should not receive a 1099-K for personal transactions but be aware that some platforms could accidentally include personal transactions in the 1099-K and that will need to be corrected on the users tax return."Will you owe taxes if you sell items on Facebook Marketplace or Poshmark?If you sell personal items for less than you paid for them and collect the money via third-party payment apps, these changes won't affect you. For example, if you buy a couch for your home for $500 and later sell it on Facebook Marketplace for $200, you won't owe taxes on the sale because it's a personal item you've sold at a loss. You may be required to show documentation of the original purchase to prove that you sold the item at a loss.If you have a side hustle where you buy items and resell them for a profit via PayPal oranother digital payment app, then earnings over $5,000 will be considered taxable and reported to the IRS in 2024.Make sure to keep a good record of your purchases and online transactions to avoid paying taxes on any nontaxable income -- and when in doubt, contact a tax professional for help.What should you do to prepare for this reporting change?Any payment apps you use may ask you to confirm your tax information, such as your employer identification number, individual tax identification number or Social Security number. If you own a business, you most likely have an EIN, but if you're a sole proprietor, individual freelancer or gig worker, you'll provide an ITIN or SSN.In some cases,receiving a 1099-K may take some of the manual work out of filing your self-employment taxes.Once this rule takes effect, you may still receive individual 1099-NEC forms if you were paid through direct deposit, check or cash. If you have multiple clients who pay you through PayPal, Venmo, Upwork or other third-party payment appsand you earn more than $5,000, you'll receive one 1099-K instead of multiple 1099-NECs.To avoid any reporting confusion, make sure you're tracking your earnings manually or with accounting software such as Quickbooks.More money advice
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  • Fortnite removes crucial ability from comp lobbies weeks before FNCS
    www.videogamer.com
    You can trust VideoGamer. Our team of gaming experts spend hours testing and reviewing the latest games, to ensure you're reading the most comprehensive guide possible. Rest assured, all imagery and advice is unique and original. Check out how we test and review games hereSince the beginning, Epic Games has always prioritized the balance between enjoyment and fair play in Fortnite competitive lobbies. As the new FNCS 2025 season nears its Major 1, Epic has taken additional steps to ensure that the playing field stays equitable for all pros.The loot pool in Fortnites competitive scene has been adjusted multiple times over the seasons, typically to avoid particular mechanics from skewing matches in favor of one tactic over another. This season, Epic Games has taken a comprehensive approach, focusing on objects that could potentially disturb the balance of power in high-stakes situations. As a result of the latest hotfix, which has also nerfed and buffed several weapons, Epic has also removed a crucial ability item from the Chapter 6 Season 1 loot pool from competitive lobbies.Fortnite removes Water Boon ability item from competitive lobbiesThe removal of the Water Boon from Fortnite competitive lobbies is one of the most notable recent modifications. This ability item, which is used to grant players bonuses like health regeneration or increased movement speed in the water, has sparked disagreement in the community.Water Boon removed in Fortnite Competitive. Image credit FNCompReport.By eliminating the Water Boon, Epic hopes to establish an environment where strategies, building, and raw aim are the keys to winning, rather than players camping in water just to have a certain ability boost to overpower their enemies.Upon its removal, player base has been left divided with some favoring the change to avoid sweaty pros while others believed it was an unnecessary change. One such user wrote, Why are they removing something a week before FNCS again? First, it was the cactus now this. To the same argument, another player replied, I think it shouldve been taken out of comp almost instantly tbh, its literally just cactus all over again it was gonna be taken out at some point.On the other hand, pros are also relieved that none of the Godzilla collab items or supply drops are present in the games Ranked and Competitive lobbies, or else the 100% spawn rate across Battle Royale matches would be quite unfair in FNCS. FortnitePlatform(s):Android, iOS, macOS, Nintendo Switch, PC, PlayStation 4, PlayStation 5, Xbox One, Xbox Series S/XGenre(s):Action, Massively Multiplayer, Shooter9VideoGamerRelated TopicsFortnite Subscribe to our newsletters!By subscribing, you agree to our Privacy Policy and may receive occasional deal communications; you can unsubscribe anytime.Share
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  • Get all your Blender add-ons on BlenderKit
    www.blendernation.com
    Get all your Blender add-ons on BlenderKit By Vilem Duha on January 25, 2025 Add-ons BlenderKit's latest update offers an extensive library off add-ons at your fingertips.We are proud to announce that from now on all free & paid Blender add-ons will be available on BlenderKit.Discover Blender add-ons on BlenderKit.BlenderKit (pre-link: https://www.blenderkit.com/) offers an ever-growing asset library seamlessly integrated into Blender 3D. The community-driven database includes 3D models, materials, brushes, scenes, HDRIs and more. It was a long-term dream of ours to extend our library and incorporate Blender add-ons.Our aim is to assist creators in sharing their add-ons and provide the community a curated list of amazing Blender tools. Much thought was devoted into creating a well-maintained system beneficiary for all. Since BlenderKit is committed to open-source, even creators of free add-ons will be paid and all creators will receive a fair commission rate.Hopefully, you will enjoy finding all your 3D assets in one place. If you are a creator, be sure to upload your add-ons.Sincerely yours,The BlenderKit team
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  • Talking Point: What Are You Playing This Weekend? (25th January)
    www.nintendolife.com
    Pokntial earnings"Now I am the (re)master"Ollie Reynolds, Staff WriterIm still making my way through the Halo franchise on Legendary. Im on Halo: Combat Evolved at the moment and Im about to enter oh lord... The Library. Pray for me.Otherwise, Ive still got a couple of games on the go for review purposes (so look out for both of those next week!) and Im still dabbling in The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild here and there. Im not even progressing the story or anything, its just nice roaming through Hyrule and hoarding a bunch of apples.Have a good one!Subscribe to Nintendo Life on YouTube794kJim Norman, Staff WriterI'm honestly not sure what my plans contain at the moment a feeling I will look back on fondly when the summer/Holiday releases start to consume my every waking moment. I recently returned to my Pokmon Emerald playthrough and I'm still having a wonderful time with it, 20 hours in. Marvel Rivals is still dominating more than a little of my time, and Dragon Quest III HD-2D Remake continues to cast a hard stare my way every time I open my Switch. Maybe this will be the week I do more than stare back at it. Maybe.That said, after returning to Pokmon Snap this week, I've really got a hankering to 'snap 'em all' (that didn't sound as sinister in my head) and 100% this N64 beauty again. Watch out for incoming shells, Mankey.Gonalo Lopes, ContributorThe Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom continue to delight with very clever dungeon designs, while mankind stares at the brink of annihilation in the Freespace 2 end game. Perhaps this is a good excuse to start a Babylon 5 marathon (something I do quite often). Further Smugglers Run: Warzones progress while giving proper attention to weekly Switch releases: Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter, Tales of Graces f Remastered (my physical copy ran late), DoDonPachi SaiDaiOuJou, Strania -The Stella Machina- EX and (at long last) Guilty Gear -Strive-!My game of the week is The Lord of the Rings: War in the North. I almost went for a rerun of Wiis Aragorns Quest after a recent NL top Lord of the Ring games list, but I instead went for one of the unplayed games. I also just realised Nolan North voices the Dnedain ranger character, so WB Games missed out on a once-in-a-lifetime glorious opportunity to brand their name War in the North with Nolan North. Elendil would be proud.Subscribe to Nintendo Life on YouTube794kGavin Lane, EditorI played a little Sutte Hakkun to grab some screens and it grabbed me almost instantly - looking forward to diving into that. Otherwise, it's a little more Arco and some N64 games on NSO to soothe the soul. Dipping into Pokmon Snap this week led me to fire up a couple of ol' reliables, although the input lag was messing up my Z-button landings in 1080. Yes, definitely the lag and not being out of practice. I just need to w- work my body some more to get used to it.Kate Gray, ContributorIt's me, the erstwhile resident NL games-that-require-note-taking liker. And I'm back with another one of those, of course: The Roottrees are Dead! A detective game that requires honest-to-goodness actual detective work, in the form of googling people's names and then printing off pictures of them and then sticking them on the wall with pins and red tape! And so soon after finishing Rise of the Golden Idol! We truly are in the golden age of games-that-make-me-sharpen-my-pencil-a-lot. Unfortunately, much like Her Story, this one requires a keyboard so I don't think it'll come to Switch. Maybe Switch 2 is more of a peripherals console? We can only hope.Subscribe to Nintendo Life on YouTube794kFelix Sanchez, Video ProducerThis weekend, my plan is to play Donkey Kong Country Returns HD. I'm two worlds in, and even though I'm not completely hooked, I'd love to see how this game progresses. I'm also making my way through Professor Layton and Pandora's Box on my DS Lite, and I feel like I'm nearing the end game. Yesterday, I finally finished a really hard chess puzzle which had gotten me stuck for a while... haha... ha...That's what we have planned for the weekend, but what about you? Let us know in the following poll which games you're planning on booting up over the next couple of days.What are you playing this weekend (25th/26th January)? (29 votes)Related GamesSee Also
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  • Lexar Is Apparently Releasing A Switch 2 'microSD Express' Card
    www.nintendolife.com
    It will be a "NS 2 must have".Take this one with a grain of salt, but Lexar has apparently announced it's releasing a new 'microSD Express' card for Switch 2.This information was originally shared by Lexar China on social media (via Famiboards), with additional details revealing it's a "1TB express card" releasing in "mid- February". It's also being touted as a "NS 2 must-have".Read the full article on nintendolife.com
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  • iOS 18.3 Release Date: iPhone Update Sees Mystery Last-Minute Change, Report Says
    www.forbes.com
    The next iPhone update is iOS 18.3 and its coming in the next few days. But theres been a sudden and surprise change to the code, which could mean a last-minute addition. So, how do we know, what might it mean, and when will the update arrive?Apple iPhone 16new software is almost here.Getty ImagesThe final build number for the release has changed from 22D60, found on the release candidate beta, to 22D61, according to a private account on X, quoted by MacRumors.The account has a good track record of sharing iOS-related information, but it has had some occasional misses. We continue to respect the account owner's request to not link to its posts, as they wish to remain anonymous and maintain a low profile, the site saysThe build number is just one digit higher, youll notice, so maybe the change is only mild. This means it could include a very minor, last-minute change or two, MacRumors says.The good thing about it being minor is that its unlikely to affect the release date, of which more below.MORE FOR YOUExactly what those changes might be remains to be seen, the report goes on, but we can speculate about one possibility: a 2025 Black Unity collection.Black Unity has been a feature for Apple for the last four years, with a new Apple Watch band, for instance, and iPhone wallpapers with the Pan-African flag.Theres another clue that this might be whats coming: a new reference to UNITY25 was found in another Apple software product, tvOS 18.3. All of which suggests we will find out about the changes soon. And the timing is perfect, as February is Black History Month in the United States, for instance.Release DateIt looks likely, given the release candidate having already arrived, that iOS 18.3 is on the brink of appearance. January has been widely reported as the most likely time for release and, since Apple habitually choose Monday or Tuesday for dropping its new software updates, that means Monday, Jan. 27 or Tuesday, Jan. 28.Im inclined to think that Tuesday, Jan. 28 will be the big day.
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  • Google Play Store WarningDo Not Keep All These Apps On Your Phone
    www.forbes.com
    New Play Store warningNurPhoto via Getty ImagesGoogles new updates have made Android safer and more secure than ever before. This weeks identity check update, protecting your data even if someone has your PIN, is just the latest advance. And Android 15 now finally making its way onto Samsungs does finally narrow the gap to iPhone. But its not all good news theres a major issue that is keeping Android stuck materially behind iPhone, and it needs to change.Were talking permission abuse, which has always been a serious threat to users. A new report is just the latest alarming wake-up call, uncovering alarming security and privacy concerns. This latest research has also exposed hardcoded secrets embedded within some apps which poses a serious risk of unauthorized access and data breaches.The report is from Leakd, which investigated 51 top downloaded crypto apps from Google Play. The teams focus was how these apps manage permissions, network configurations, embedded trackers, and hardcoded secrets. And their findings are both surprising and concerning; many apps overreach by requesting unnecessary permissions, show glaring security weaknesses, and fail to adhere to even basic privacy standards, putting you at considerable risk.Crypto apps number of trackers found LeakdMORE FOR YOUiPhones are far from perfect, but theyre better. The hope is Googles new live threat detection is the beginning of an on-device permission abuse crackdown. But I fear that its not at least not yet. This report follows a similar one from last year that looked at some of the most popular apps in general, and found much the same. I have asked Google for any comments on these latest findings. Clearly, something needs to change.Leakd says these vulnerabilities arent just theoretical. Excessive permissions and insecure configurations can lead to: data theft sensitive user information, including identity documents and private keys, can be intercepted; account takeovers hardcoded secrets and weak authorization controls provide attackers with easy entry points; and privacy breaches overuse of trackers undermines user anonymity, exposing personal activity to third parties.Trackers and permissions are readily understood, silently collecting data about how you interact with an app and sometimes even your activities outside of it trackers often go unnoticed, harvesting information that can paint an intimate picture of your behavior, habits, and preferences. Its this abuse that is behind the collection of sensitive location data, that promoted NSA to warn users to disable such settings and enabled an alarming data breach earlier this month.But Leakd also looked into app code exposure. While trackers quietly collect data in the background, hardcoded secrets present a more overt and critical threat to your security. These embedded secrets including API keys, authentication tokens, and sensitive system configurations are directly baked into the app's code. If exposed, they provide attackers with a straightforward route to compromise critical systems, gain unauthorized access, or manipulate app functionality.Crypto apps number of permissions per appLeakdThats worrying, but its permission abuse that is the more serious and widespread threat and should be the easier problem to solve. We can see the permissions each app seeks and AI-fueled defenses are not yet successfully asking why. One of the most disturbing issues identified was the sheer number of permissions requested by the apps. On average, each app requested around 22.9 permissions, with some going as high as 45 These excessive permissions create a large attack surface, making you more vulnerable to exploitation.Given the sensitive nature of these crypto apps, Leakd recommends you do the following:Be Permission-Conscious: Before installing an app, check the permissions it requests. Avoid apps asking for irrelevant permissions.Opt for Secure Options: Choose apps with a proven track record of security and transparency.Use Separate Wallets: Avoid storing large amounts of cryptoassets in apps with questionable security.You should also limit the number of these apps that you keep on your phone you certainly do not want to collect multiple apps highlighted in the report to compound the risk. You should also check each of the apps you have for access to sensitive permissions. This means location, phone and messaging data, and access to content such as contacts that is not needed for the core functionality of the app itself. I have reached out to Google for any comments on this latest report.
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  • EV sales surge could continue as Trump delays ending federal rebates, report says
    www.digitaltrends.com
    A surge in sales of electric vehicles in the final months of last year could continue well into 2025, as consumers continue to take advantage of federal tax incentives while they last, according to a report by the Associated Press.On the day of his inauguration, President Donald Trump signed an executive order titled Unleashing American Energy, which says the government is considering the elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor EVs over other technologies.Recommended VideosDuring his campaign, Trumps team said it was planning to end the Biden administrations $7,500 tax credit on the purchase or lease of an EV, although it did not provide a timeline for doing so.Please enable Javascript to view this contentAmericans rushed to take advantage of the incentive, helping fuel a surge of more than 15% in EV sales in the fourth quarter, according to Cox Automotive.Recent surveys show that incentives have played a major role in fueling EV sales over the past few years, and that a majority of Americans are in favor of government incentives to help with the purchase of an EV.Meanwhile, the wording in Trumps executive order, which says his administration is still considering its options, leaves room for ambiguity about the timing of its application.Temporarily, sales of EVs could skyrocket as car-buyers rush to take advantage of existing tax credits, the report by the Associated Press says.In order to repeal the EV tax credit, the Trump administration will need to obtain the approval of congress. The process will likely take place as part of broader negotiations on extending Trumps first-term tax cuts, which are due to expire near the end of 2025.Its also not entirely clear if the Trump administration will seek to end the whole of the $7,500 EV tax incentive. In order to obtain the incentive for the purchase of an EV, restrictions apply for high-income households and for EVs with non-U.S. made batteries. But those restrictions dont apply to leasing an EV.According to Cox Automotive, members of the Trump administration are particularly keen on ending this leasing loophole, which was created partly to appease Korean and Japanese automakers, who have invested billions in U.S. EV manufacturing.Ending rebates and other subsidies for EVs is also likely to meet challenges, be they legal or political, from different actors.The Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA), a trade group whose members include the likes of Tesla, Waymo, Rivian, and Uber, has come out in support of incentives for both the production and the sale of EVs.ZETA says the incentives for both EV and battery-makers have led to enormous investments and job gains in Republican-dominated states like Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, and Georgia.Editors Recommendations
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  • Ukraine's Kursk invasion was a risky play, but it might have nailed the timing
    www.businessinsider.com
    Ukraine took a huge risk attacking into Russia and taking territory last year.It has had positives and negatives for both countries.But if it still holds enough of the territory as Trump pushes for negotiations it could pay off.Ukraine's risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if for no other reason than the timing.Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian region of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The move into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of which had been static for months.But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts have said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as the upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved pressure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a lot of what they captured.Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right now, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through negotiations.Whoever holds territory in Kursk "is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefire negotiations," Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former commander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forces, told Business Insider.New talk of negotiationsTim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King's College London and a former British diplomat,saidthis month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation was "quite deliberate" because it was "trying to take some territory which could lead to bargaining."And now Trump's re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war through negotiations.Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This week, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a deal.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingness to enter talks.Zelenskyy said in November the parts of Ukraine still under its own control could be taken "under the NATO umbrella" as part of an agreement that still holds Ukraine's borders as its internationally recognized borders. He said Ukraine could then negotiate the return of its own territory that was still under Russian control "in a diplomatic way."De Bretton-Gordon said Zelenskyy's comments reinforce that "Kursk is absolutely key."A "victory plan" Zelenskyy unveiled in October also called for the continuation of Ukraine's work in Kursk, hinting at its value. De Bretton-Gordon said it shows Zelenskyy may be seeing Kursk as "a key bargaining chip."Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that given Trump is "almost certain" to push negotiations, "it's good to have this bargaining chip." Plus, he said, negotiations are likely to take place sooner than they would have under a Kamala Harris presidency, making it more likely that Ukraine could hold on to a significant chunk of Kursk."It could work out well" for Ukraine, he said.Kursk holds significance for the Russians, as it was a key battle and turning point in World War II. Holding Kursk gives Ukraine, which has often been on its back foot, something it can use in negotations.Russia may want to fight over KurskThere's no guarantee it gets to negotiations, though. Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson said last month that Russia sees "no grounds for negotiations yet." Putin has signaled that he doesn't want to slow down and take his foot off the gas.George Barros, a conflict expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI Kursk "certainly can" play a role in negotiations, but he suspects that Russian President Vladimir Putin would rather fight rather than negotiate for Kursk.Negotiating over his own territory would be a "massive humiliation for Putin," he said.Russia hasn't pushed as hard as it could in Kursk. Barros said "it's quite clear to me that Kursk has not been a primary objective." Were that to change, it could have significant effects.There are limits to what Russia can do. Focusing on Kursk could mean taking more troops out of Ukraine something Ukraine wants as it takes the pressure off its forces. That might open the door for Ukraine to take back more of its own territory. It's hard to know.Negotiations might still be a long way offIf there are negotiations, they may not be immediate, and Ukraine will need to be holding a good-sized chunk to use Kursk as a bargaining chip.Ukraine has lost much of what it held, though warfare experts said it likely gave some of that up willingly to strategically defend other parts. Some experts are still bullish about what Ukraine is holding. De Bretton-Gordon, for instance, said "Ukraine's still holding a significant amount."And Ukraine also executed a new offensive push in Kursk this month. The move was "likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage," Can Kasapolu, a political-military expert at the Hudson Institute, wrote recently.But for the gamble to pay off for Ukraine in terms of timing, Ukraine still needs to be holding ground if negotiations turn real something Trump advisors said could take months more. That could be a tall order, but with the possibility of talks being openly discussed, that makes Kursk even more important.
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