ILM teams with Ben Stiller and Apple TV+ to bring thousands of seamless visual effects shots to the hit drama’s second season. By Clayton Sandell There are mysterious and important secrets to be uncovered in the second season of the wildly popular Apple TV+ series Severance (2022-present). About 3,500 of them are hiding in plain sight. That’s roughly the number of visual effects shots helping tell the Severance story over 10 gripping episodes in the latest season, a collaborative effort led by Industrial Light & Magic. ILM’s Eric Leven served as the Severance season two production visual effects supervisor. We asked him to help pull back the curtain on some of the show’s impressive digital artistry that most viewers will probably never notice. “This is the first show I’ve ever done where it’s nothing but invisible effects,” Leven tells ILM.com. “It’s a really different calculus because nobody talks about them. And if you’ve done them well, they are invisible to the naked eye.” With so many season two shots to choose from, Leven helped us narrow down a list of his favorite visual effects sequences to five. (As a bonus, we’ll also dive into an iconic season finale shot featuring the Mr. Milchick-led marching band.) Before we dig in, a word of caution. This article contains plot spoilers for Severance. (And in case you’re already wondering: No, the goats are not computer-graphics.) Severance tells the story of Mark Scout (Adam Scott), department chief of the secretive Severed Floor located in the basement level of Lumon Industries, a multinational biotech corporation. Mark S., as he’s known to his co-workers, heads up Macrodata Refinement (MDR), a department where employees help categorize numbers without knowing the true purpose of their work.  Mark and his team – Helly R. (Britt Lower), Dylan G. (Zach Cherry), and Irving B. (John Turturro), have all undergone a surgical procedure to “sever” their personal lives from their work lives. The chip embedded in their brains effectively creates two personalities that are sometimes at odds: an “Innie” during Lumon office hours and an “Outie” at home. “This is the first show I’ve ever done where it’s nothing but invisible effects. It’s a really different calculus because nobody talks about them. And if you’ve done them well, they are invisible to the naked eye.”Eric Leven 1. The Running Man (Episode 201: “Hello, Ms. Cobel”) The season one finale ends on a major cliffhanger. Mark S. learns that his Outie’s wife, Gemma – believed killed in a car crash years ago – is actually alive somewhere inside the Lumon complex. Season two opens with Mark S. arriving at the Severed Floor in a desperate search for Gemma, who he only knows as her Innie persona, Ms. Casey. The fast-paced sequence is designed to look like a single, two-minute shot. It begins with the camera making a series of rapid and elaborate moves around a frantic Mark S. as he steps out of the elevator, into the Severed Floor lobby, and begins running through the hallways. “The nice thing about that sequence was that everyone knew it was going to be difficult and challenging,” Leven says, adding that executive producer and Episode 201 director, Ben Stiller, began by mapping out the hallway run with his team. Leven recommended that a previsualization sequence – provided by The Third Floor – would help the filmmakers refine their plan before cameras rolled. “While prevising it, we didn’t worry about how we would actually photograph anything. It was just, ‘These are the visuals we want to capture,’” Leven says. “‘What does it look like for this guy to run down this hallway for two minutes? We’ll figure out how to shoot it later.’” The previs process helped determine how best to shoot the sequence, and also informed which parts of the soundstage set would have to be digitally replaced. The first shot was captured by a camera mounted on a Bolt X Cinebot motion-control arm provided by The Garage production company. The size of the motion-control setup, however, meant it could not fit in the confined space of an elevator or the existing hallways. “We couldn’t actually shoot in the elevator,” Leven says. “The whole elevator section of the set was removed and was replaced with computer graphics [CG].” In addition to the elevator, ILM artists replaced portions of the floor, furniture, and an entire lobby wall, even adding a reflection of Adam Scott into the elevator doors. As Scott begins running, he’s picked up by a second camera mounted on a more compact, stabilized gimbal that allows the operator to quickly run behind and sometimes in front of the actor as he darts down different hallways. ILM seamlessly combined the first two Mark S. plates in a 2D composite. “Part of that is the magic of the artists at ILM who are doing that blend. But I have to give credit to Adam Scott because he ran the same way in both cameras without really being instructed,” says Leven. “Lucky for us, he led with the same foot. He used the same arm. I remember seeing it on the set, and I did a quick-and-dirty blend right there and thought, ‘Oh my gosh, this is going to work.’ So it was really nice.” The action continues at a frenetic pace, ultimately combining ten different shots to complete the sequence. “We didn’t want the very standard sleight of hand that you’ve seen a lot where you do a wipe across the white hallway,” Leven explains. “We tried to vary that as much as possible because we didn’t want to give away the gag. So, there are times when the camera will wipe across a hallway, and it’s not a computer graphics wipe. We’d hide the wipe somewhere else.” A slightly more complicated illusion comes as the camera sweeps around Mark S. from back to front as he barrels down another long hallway. “There was no way to get the camera to spin around Mark while he is running because there’s physically not enough room for the camera there,” says Leven. To capture the shot, Adam Scott ran on a treadmill placed on a green screen stage as the camera maneuvered around him. At that point, the entire hallway environment is made with computer graphics. Artists even added a few extra frames of the actor to help connect one shot to the next, selling the illusion of a single continuous take. “We painted in a bit of Adam Scott running around the corner. So if you freeze and look through it, you’ll see a bit of his heel. He never completely clears the frame,” Leven points out. Leven says ILM also provided Ben Stiller with options when it came to digitally changing up the look of Lumon’s sterile hallways: sometimes adding extra doors, vents, or even switching door handles. “I think Ben was very excited about having this opportunity,” says Leven. “He had never had a complete, fully computer graphics version of these hallways before. And now he was able to do things that he was never able to do in season one.” (Credit: Apple TV+). 2. Let it Snow (Episode 204: “Woe’s Hollow”) The MDR team – Mark, Helly, Dylan, and Irving – unexpectedly find themselves in the snowy wilderness as part of a two-day Lumon Outdoor Retreat and Team-Building Occurrence, or ORTBO.  Exterior scenes were shot on location at Minnewaska State Park Preserve in New York. Throughout the ORTBO sequence, ILM performed substantial environment enhancements, making trees and landscapes appear far snowier than they were during the shoot. “It’s really nice to get the actors out there in the cold and see their breath,” Leven says. “It just wasn’t snowy during the shoot. Nearly every exterior shot was either replaced or enhanced with snow.” For a shot of Irving standing on a vast frozen lake, for example, virtually every element in the location plate – including an unfrozen lake, mountains, and trees behind actor John Turturro – was swapped out for a CG environment. Wide shots of a steep, rocky wall Irving must scale to reach his co-workers were also completely digital. Eventually, the MDR team discovers a waterfall that marks their arrival at a place called Woe’s Hollow. The location – the state park’s real-life Awosting Falls – also got extensive winter upgrades from ILM, including much more snow covering the ground and trees, an ice-covered pond, and hundreds of icicles clinging to the rocky walls. “To make it fit in the world of Severance, there’s a ton of work that has to happen,” Leven tells ILM.com. (Credit: Apple TV+). 3. Welcome to Lumon (Episode 202: “Goodbye, Mrs. Selvig” & Episode 203: “Who is Alive?”) The historic Bell Labs office complex, now known as Bell Works in Holmdel Township, New Jersey, stands in as the fictional Lumon Industries headquarters building. Exterior shots often underwent a significant digital metamorphosis, with artists transforming areas of green grass into snow-covered terrain, inserting a CG water tower, and rendering hundreds of 1980s-era cars to fill the parking lot. “We’re always adding cars, we’re always adding snow. We’re changing, subtly, the shape and the layout of the design,” says Leven. “We’re seeing new angles that we’ve never seen before. On the roof of Lumon, for example, the air conditioning units are specifically designed and created with computer graphics.” In real life, the complex is surrounded by dozens of houses, requiring the digital erasure of entire neighborhoods. “All of that is taken out,” Leven explains. “CG trees are put in, and new mountains are put in the background.” Episodes 202 and 203 feature several night scenes shot from outside the building looking in. In one sequence, a camera drone flying outside captured a long tracking shot of Helena Eagan (Helly R.’s Outie) making her way down a glass-enclosed walkway. The building’s atrium can be seen behind her, complete with a massive wall sculpture depicting company founder Kier Eagan. “We had to put the Kier sculpture in with the special lighting,” Leven reveals. “The entire atrium was computer graphics.” Artists completed the shot by adding CG reflections of the snowy parking lot to the side of the highly reflective building. “We have to replace what’s in the reflections because the real reflection is a parking lot with no snow or a parking lot with no cars,” explains Leven. “We’re often replacing all kinds of stuff that you wouldn’t think would need to be replaced.” Another nighttime scene shot from outside the building features Helena in a conference room overlooking the Lumon parking lot, which sits empty except for Mr. Milchick (Tramell Tillman) riding in on his motorcycle. “The top story, where she is standing, was practical,” says Leven, noting the shot was also captured using a drone hovering outside the window. “The second story below her was all computer graphics. Everything other than the building is computer graphics. They did shoot a motorcycle on location, getting as much practical reference as possible, but then it had to be digitally replaced after the fact to make it work with the rest of the shot.” (Credit: Apple TV+). 4. Time in Motion (Episode 207: “Chikhai Bardo”) Episode seven reveals that MDR’s progress is being monitored by four dopplegang-ish observers in a control room one floor below, revealed via a complex move that has the camera traveling downward through a mass of data cables. “They built an oversize cable run, and they shot with small probe lenses. Visual effects helped by blending several plates together,” explains Leven. “It was a collaboration between many different departments, which was really nice. Visual effects helped with stuff that just couldn’t be shot for real. For example, when the camera exits the thin holes of the metal grate at the bottom of the floor, that grate is computer graphics.” The sequence continues with a sweeping motion-control time-lapse shot that travels around the control-room observers in a spiral pattern, a feat pulled off with an ingenious mix of technical innovation and old-school sleight of hand. A previs sequence from The Third Floor laid out the camera move, but because the Bolt arm motion-control rig could only travel on a straight track and cover roughly one-quarter of the required distance, The Garage came up with a way to break the shot into multiple passes. The passes would later be stitched together into one seemingly uninterrupted movement. The symmetrical set design – including the four identical workstations – helped complete the illusion, along with a clever solution that kept the four actors in the correct position relative to the camera. “The camera would basically get to the end of the track,” Leven explains. “Then everybody would switch positions 90 degrees. Everyone would get out of their chairs and move. The camera would go back to one, and it would look like one continuous move around in a circle because the room is perfectly symmetrical, and everything in it is perfectly symmetrical. We were able to move the actors, and it looks like the camera was going all the way around the room.” The final motion-control move switches from time-lapse back to real time as the camera passes by a workstation and reveals Mr. Drummond (Ólafur Darri Ólafsson) and Dr. Mauer (Robby Benson) standing behind it. Leven notes that each pass was completed with just one take. 5. Mark vs. Mark (Episode 210: “Cold Harbor”) The Severance season two finale begins with an increasingly tense conversation between Innie Mark and Outie Mark, as the two personas use a handheld video camera to send recorded messages back and forth. Their encounter takes place at night in a Lumon birthing cabin equipped with a severance threshold that allows Mark S. to become Mark Scout each time he steps outside and onto the balcony. The cabin set was built on a soundstage at York Studios in the Bronx, New York. The balcony section consisted of the snowy floor, two chairs, and a railing, all surrounded by a blue screen background. Everything else was up to ILM to create. “It was nice to have Ben’s trust that we could just do it,” Leven remembers. “He said, ‘Hey, you’re just going to make this look great, right?’ We said, ‘Yeah, no problem.’” Artists filled in the scene with CG water, mountains, and moonlight to match the on-set lighting and of course, more snow. As Mark Scout steps onto the balcony, the camera pulls back to a wide shot, revealing the cabin’s full exterior. “They built a part of the exterior of the set. But everything other than the windows, even the railing, was digitally replaced,” Leven says. “It was nice to have Ben [Stiller’s] trust that we could just do it. He said, ‘Hey, you’re just going to make this look great, right?’ We said, ‘Yeah, no problem.’”Eric Leven Bonus: Marching Band Magic (Episode 210: “Cold Harbor”) Finally, our bonus visual effects shot appears roughly halfway through the season finale. To celebrate Mark S. completing the Cold Harbor file, Mr. Milchick orders up a marching band from Lumon’s Choreography and Merriment department. Band members pour into MDR, but Leven says roughly 15 to 20 shots required adding a few more digital duplicates. “They wanted it to look like MDR was filled with band members. And for several of the shots there were holes in there. It just didn’t feel full enough,” he says. In a shot featuring a God’s-eye view of MDR, band members hold dozens of white cards above their heads, forming a giant illustration of a smiling Mark S. with text that reads “100%.” “For the top shot, we had to find a different stage because the MDR ceiling is only about eight feet tall,” recalls Leven. “And Ben really pushed to have it done practically, which I think was the right call because you’ve already got the band members, you’ve made the costumes, you’ve got the instruments. Let’s find a place to shoot it.” To get the high shot, the production team set up on an empty soundstage, placing signature MDR-green carpet on the floor. A simple foam core mock-up of the team’s desks occupied the center of the frame, with the finished CG versions added later. Even without the restraints of the practical MDR walls and ceiling, the camera could only get enough height to capture about 30 band members in the shot. So the scene was digitally expanded, with artists adding more green carpet, CG walls, and about 50 more band members. “We painted in new band members, extracting what we could from the practical plate,” Leven says. “We moved them around; we added more, just to make it look as full as Ben wanted.” Every single white card in the shot, Leven points out, is completely digital. (Credit: Apple TV+). A Mysterious and Important Collaboration With fans now fiercely debating the many twists and turns of Severance season two, Leven is quick to credit ILM’s two main visual effects collaborators: east side effects and Mango FX INC, as well as ILM studios and artists around the globe, including San Francisco, Vancouver, Singapore, Sydney, and Mumbai. Leven also believes Severance ultimately benefited from a successful creative partnership between ILM and Ben Stiller. “This one clicked so well, and it really made a difference on the show,” Leven says. “I think we both had the same sort of visual shorthand in terms of what we wanted things to look like. One of the things I love about working with Ben is that he’s obviously grounded in reality. He wants to shoot as much stuff real as possible, but then sometimes there’s a shot that will either come to him late or he just knows is impractical to shoot. And he knows that ILM can deliver it.” — Clayton Sandell is a Star Wars author and enthusiast, TV storyteller, and a longtime fan of the creative people who keep Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound on the leading edge of visual effects and sound design. Follow him on Instagram (@claytonsandell) Bluesky (@claytonsandell.com) or X (@Clayton_Sandell).

The housing catalogue includes 50 low-rise home designs, including for garden suites, duplexes, four-plexes and six-plexes. Each design was developed by local architecture and engineering teams with the intent of aligning with regional building codes, planning rules, climate zones, construction methods and materials. TEXT John Lorinc RENDERINGS Office In Search Of During the spring election, the Liberals leaned into messaging that evoked a historic moment from the late 1940s, when Ottawa succeeded in confronting a severe housing crisis.  “We used to build things in this country,” begins Prime Minister Mark Carney in a nostalgic ad filled with archival images of streets lined with brand new post-World War II “strawberry box” bungalows, built for returning Canadian soldiers and their young families.  The video also includes montages from the now-iconic design “catalogues,” published by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). These supplied floor plans and unlocked cheap mortgages for tens of thousands of simple suburban houses found in communities across the country. “The government built prefabricated homes that were easy to assemble and inexpensive,” Carney said in the voice-over. “And those homes are still here.”  Over the past year, CMHC has initiated a 21st century re-do of that design catalogue, and the first tranche of 50 plans—for garden suites, duplexes, four-plexes and six-plexes—went live in early March. A second tranche, with plans for small apartments, is under development.  Unlike the postwar versions, these focus on infill sites, not green fields. One of CMHC’s goals is to promote so-called gentle density to residential properties with easily constructed plans that reflect regional variations, local zoning and building-code regulations, accessibility features and low-carbon design. As with those postwar catalogues, CMHC’s other goal was to tamp down on soft costs for homeowners or small builders looking to develop these kinds of housing by providing no-cost designs that were effectively permit sets. The early reviews are generally positive. “I find the design really very compelling in a kind of understated way,” says SvN principal Sam Dufaux. By making available vetted plans that can be either pre-approved or approved as of right, CMHC will remove some of the friction that impedes this scale of housing. “One of the elements of the housing crisis has to do with how do we approve these kinds of projects,” Dufaux adds. “I’m hoping it is a bit of a new beginning.” Yet other observers offer cautions about the extent to which the CMHC program can blunt the housing crisis. “It’s a small piece and a positive one,” says missing middle advocate and economist Mike Moffatt, who is executive in residence at the Smart Prosperity Institute and an assistant professor at Western’s Ivey Business School. “But [it’s] one that probably captures a disproportionate amount of attention because it’s something people can visualize in a way that they can’t with an apartment tax credit.” This kind of new-build infill is unlikely to provide much in the way of affordable or deeply affordable housing, adds Carolyn Whitzman, housing and social policy researcher, and author of Home Truths: Fixing Canada’s Housing Crisis (UBC Press, 2024). She estimates Canada needs about three million new dwellings that can be rented for $1,000 per month or less. The policies that will enable new housing at that scale, she says, involve financing subsidies, publicly owned land, and construction innovation, e.g., prefabricated or factory-built components, as well as “consistent and permissive zoning and consistent and permissive building codes.”  Indeed, the make-or-break question hovering over CMHC’s design catalogue is whether municipalities will green-light these plans or simply find new ways to hold up approvals.   An axonometric of a rowhouse development from the Housing Catalogue, designed for Alberta. A team effort Janna Levitt, partner at LGA Architectural Partners, says that when CMHC issued an RFP for the design catalogue, her firm decided to pitch a team of architects and peer reviewers from across Canada, with LGA serving as project manager. After they were selected, Levitt says they had to quickly clarify a key detail, which was the assumption that the program could deliver pre-approved, permit-ready plans absent a piece of property to build on. “Even in 1947,” she says, “it wasn’t a permit set until you had a site.” LGA’s team and CMHC agreed to expand the scope of the assignment so that the finished product wasn’t just a catalogue of plans but also included details about local regulations and typical lot sizes. Re-Housing co-founder Michael Piper, an associate professor at U of T’s John H. Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape, and Design, came on board to carry out research on similar programs, and found initiatives in places like Georgia, Indiana and Texas. “I have not found any that moved forward,” he says. “Canada’s national design catalogue is pretty novel in that regard, which is exciting.” The noteworthy exceptions are California, which has made significant advances in recent years in pre-approving ADUs across the state, and British Columbia, which last fall released its own standardized design catalogue.  He also carried out a scan of land use and zoning rules in Ontario for 15 to 20 municipalities. “We looked to see [what] their zoning permitted and what the rules were, and as you might expect, they’re all over the place,” he says. “Hence the challenge with the standardized design.” At present, high-level overviews for the 50 designs are available, including basic floor plans, 3D axonometrics, and building dimensions. Full architectural design packages are expected to be released later this year. Levitt says the architects on the team set out to come up with designs that used wood frame construction, had no basements (to save on cost and reduce embodied carbon), and drew on vernacular architectural styles. They researched representative lot sizes in the various regions, and configured designs to suit small, medium and large properties. Some versions have accessibility features—CMHC’s remit included both accessible units and aging-in-place as objectives—or can be adapted later on.  As for climate and energy efficiency considerations, the recommended materials include low-carbon components and cladding. The designs do reflect geographical variations, but Levitt says there’s only so much her team could do in terms of energy modelling. “How do you do heat energy calculations when you don’t have a site? You don’t have north, south, east, west [orientations] and you don’t have what zone are you in. In B.C. and Ontario, there are seven climatic regions. There was a lot of working through those kinds of very practical requirements, which were very complicated and actually fed into the design work quite significantly.” As Levitt adds, “in 1947, there were no heat loss models because the world wasn’t like that.” LGA provided the architects on the team with templates for interior elements, such as bathrooms, as well as standards for features such as bedroom sizes, dining areas, storage sufficient to hold strollers, and access to outdoor space, either at grade or via a balcony. “We gathered together these ideas about the quality of life that we wanted baked into each of the designs, so that [they] expressed a really good quality of life—modest but good quality,” she says. “It’s not about the finishes. People had to be able to live there and live there well.” “This isn’t a boutique home solution,” Whitzman says. “This is a cheap and mass-produced solution. And compared to other cheap and mass-produced solutions, whether they be condos or suburban subdivisions, [the catalogue designs] look fine to my untrained eye.” A selection of Housing Catalogue designs for the Atlantic region. Will it succeed?  With the plans now public, the other important variables, besides their conformity with local bylaws, have to do with cost and visibility to potential users, including homeowners, contractors and developers specializing in smaller-scale projects.  On the costing side, N. Barry Lyons Consultants (NBLC) has been retained by CMHC to develop models to accompany the design catalogue, but those figures have yet to be released. While pricing is inevitably dynamic, the calculus behind the entire exercise turns on whether the savings on design outlays and the use of prefabricated components will make such small-scale projects pencil, particularly at a time when there are live concerns about tariffs, skilled labour shortages, and supply chain interruptions on building materials.  Finally, there’s the horse-to-water problem. While the design catalogue has received a reasonable amount of media attention since it launched, does CMHC need to find ways to market it more aggressively? “From my experience,” says Levitt, “they are extremely proactive, and have assembled a kind of dream team with a huge range of experience and expertise. They are doing very concerted and deep work with municipalities across the country.” Proper promotion, observes Moffatt, “is going to be important in particular, just for political reasons. The prime minister has made a lot of bold promises about [adding] 500,000 homes.” Carney’s pledge to get Canada back into building will take time to ramp up, he adds. “I do think the federal government needs to visibly show progress, and if they can’t point to a [new] building across the road, they could at least [say], `We’ve got this design catalogue. Here’s how it works. We’ve already got so many builders and developers looking at this.’”  While it’s far too soon to draw conclusions about the success of this ambitious program, Levitt is well aware of the long and rich legacy of the predecessor CMHC catalogues from the late 40s and the 1950s, all of which gave many young Canadian architects their earliest commissions and then left an enduring aesthetic on countless communities across Canada.   She hopes the updated 21st-century catalogue—fitted out as it is for 21st-century concerns about carbon, resilience and urban density—will acquire a similar cachet.  “These are architecturally designed houses for a group of people across the country who will have never lived in an architecturally designed house,” she muses. “I would love it if, 80 years from now, the consistent feedback [from occupants] was that they were able to live generously and well in those houses, and that everything was where it should be.” ARCHITECTURE FIRM COLLABORATORS Michael Green Architecture, Dub Architects, 5468796 Architecture Inc, Oxbow Architecture, LGA Architectural Partners, KANVA Architecture, Abbott Brown Architects, Taylor Architecture Group  As appeared in the June 2025 issue of Canadian Architect magazine  The post A housing design catalogue for the 21st century appeared first on Canadian Architect.

The UK is deploying AI to keep a watchful eye on Arctic security threats from hostile states amid growing geopolitical tensions. This will be underscored by Foreign Secretary David Lammy during his visit to the region, which kicks off today.The deployment is seen as a signal of the UK’s commitment to leveraging technology to navigate an increasingly complex global security landscape. For Britain, what unfolds in the territories of two of its closest Arctic neighbours – Norway and Iceland – has direct and profound implications.The national security of the UK is linked to stability in the High North. The once remote and frozen expanse is changing, and with it, the security calculus for the UK.Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “The Arctic is becoming an increasingly important frontier for geopolitical competition and trade, and a key flank for European and UK security. “We cannot bolster the UK’s defence and deliver the Plan for Change without greater security in the Arctic. This is a region where Russia’s shadowfleet operates, threatening critical infrastructure like undersea cables to the UK and Europe, and helping fund Russia’s aggressive activity.”British and Norwegian naval vessels conduct vital joint patrols in the Arctic. These missions are at the sharp end of efforts to detect, deter, and manage the increasing subsea threats that loom over vital energy supplies, national infrastructure, and broader regional security.Russia’s Northern Fleet, in particular, presents a persistent challenge in these icy waters. This high-level engagement follows closely on the heels of the Prime Minister’s visit to Norway earlier this month for a Joint Expeditionary Force meeting, where further support for Ukraine was a key talking point with allies from the Baltic and Scandinavian states.During the Icelandic stop of his tour, Lammy will unveil a UK-Iceland tech partnership to boost Arctic security. This new scheme is designed to harness AI technologies for monitoring hostile activity across this vast and challenging region. It’s a forward-looking strategy, acknowledging that as the Arctic opens up, so too do the opportunities for those who might seek to exploit its vulnerabilities.As global temperatures climb and the ancient ice caps continue their retreat, previously impassable shipping routes are emerging. This is not just a matter for climate scientists; it’s redrawing geopolitical maps. The Arctic is fast becoming an arena of increased competition, with nations eyeing newly accessible reserves of gas, oil, and precious minerals. Unsurprisingly, this scramble for resources is cranking up security concerns.Adding another layer of complexity, areas near the Arctic are being actively used by Russia’s fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers. Putin’s vessels are crucial to his “High North” strategy, carving paths for tankers that, in turn, help to bankroll his illegal war in Ukraine.Such operations cast a long shadow, threatening not only maritime security but also the delicate Arctic environment. Reports suggest Putin has been forced to rely on “dodgy and decaying vessels,” which frequently suffer breakdowns and increase the risk of devastating oil spills.The UK’s defence partnership with Norway is deeply rooted, with British troops undertaking vital Arctic training in the country for over half a century. This enduring collaboration is now being elevated through an agreement to fortify the security of both nations.“It’s more important than ever that we work with our allies in the High North, like Norway and Iceland, to enhance our ability to patrol and protect these waters,” added Lammy.“That’s why we have today announced new UK funding to work more closely with Iceland, using AI to bolster our ability to monitor and detect hostile state activity in the Arctic.”Throughout his Arctic tour, the Foreign Secretary will be emphasising the UK’s role in securing NATO’s northern flank. This includes the often unseen but hugely significant task of protecting the region’s critical undersea infrastructure – the cables and pipelines that are the lifelines for stable energy supplies and telecoms for the UK and much of Europe.These targeted Arctic security initiatives are part and parcel of a broader, robust enhancement of the UK’s overall defence posture. Earlier this year, the Prime Minister announced the most significant sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. This will see UK defence expenditure climb to 2.5% of GDP by April 2027, with a clear ambition to reach 3% in the next Parliament, contingent on economic and fiscal conditions.The significance of maritime security and the Arctic is also recognised in the UK’s ambitious new Security and Defence Partnership with the EU, agreed last week. This pact commits both sides to closer collaboration to make Europe a safer place.In today’s interconnected world, security, climate action, and international collaboration are inextricably linked. The turn to AI isn’t just a tech upgrade; it’s a strategic necessity.(Photo by Annie Spratt)Want to learn more about AI and big data from industry leaders? Check out AI & Big Data Expo taking place in Amsterdam, California, and London. The comprehensive event is co-located with other leading events including Intelligent Automation Conference, BlockX, Digital Transformation Week, and Cyber Security & Cloud Expo.Explore other upcoming enterprise technology events and webinars powered by TechForge here.

US President Donald Trump (left), accompanied by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth (right), announces the Golden Dome missile defense shieldCHRIS KLEPONIS/POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock US President Donald Trump has proposed a defence project, called the Golden Dome, to intercept any incoming hypersonic, ballistic and advanced cruise missiles that threaten the country. “Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space,” said Trump during the White House announcement on 20 May. But such a thorough interception system may not be possible. Some experts also warn that, even if it works, the Golden Dome would take at least a decade to build, cost more than half a trillion dollars – and accelerate the global nuclear arms race and the weaponisation of space.Advertisement What is the Golden Dome? The project’s name is inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome system, which uses ground-based missiles to intercept incoming rockets and artillery fired from relatively short distances. But the Golden Dome would need to defend a far larger area – the land mass of the contiguous US alone is more than 350 times the size of Israel – from a wider variety of sophisticated missiles. According to Trump and his officials, the system should be able to counter ballistic missiles that could be launched from the other side of the world, advanced cruise missiles that fly on flatter trajectories at lower altitudes and hypersonic missiles that can fly and manoeuvre at speeds exceeding Mach 5, five times the speed of sound. These missiles can carry either nuclear warheads or conventional explosive warheads. Receive a weekly dose of discovery in your inbox. Sign up to newsletter To detect and intercept the threats, the Golden Dome will use both “space-based sensors and air and missile defense”, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in a statement. That implies an umbrella system of “Golden Domes” with different technologies countering different threats, says David Burbach at the Naval War College in Rhode Island, who shared some comments with New Scientist in a personal capacity. However, not all of these defences exist. For instance, the Golden Dome would supposedly use space-based interceptor missiles in low Earth orbit, an unprecedented technological feat that has never been demonstrated before, says Thomas González Roberts at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. A similar idea, nicknamed Star Wars, was originally proposed by US President Ronald Reagan in his Strategic Defense Initiative during the cold war. In fact, Trump has described the Golden Dome as an effort to complete “the job that President Reagan started 40 years ago”. How will the Golden Dome work? Missile defence experts describe the challenge of intercepting long-range nuclear missiles as being like “hitting a bullet with a bullet, in the dark” because “the targets are small, not emitting any radio or infrared signals, and fast moving”, says Burbach. “One thing to keep in mind is that even optimistic technical experts admit 100 per cent interception is unlikely.” The US already has a system of ground-based interceptor missiles, primarily based in Alaska. They can shoot down “a couple dozen incoming warheads at best”, says Burbach. He also pointed out that Russia and China are developing countermeasures to make it harder to detect and intercept their missiles. “Stopping subsonic cruise missiles or short-range ballistic missiles launched from just outside US borders would use established technology, but it could be expensive to deploy enough of those defensive systems to cover the whole country,” says Burbach. “The real challenge will be Golden Dome’s aim to stop large numbers of intercontinental missiles – President Trump said ‘100 per cent’ of them – such as an attack from China or Russia.” Trump’s claim that the Golden Dome would defend against missile strikes from the other side of the world or even from space implies it would require a “dense constellation of likely low-Earth orbiting, space-based missile interceptors that could deorbit and strike a missile within minutes of it launching” from anywhere, says Roberts. “The number of satellites you would need is bigger than any constellation that’s ever been launched,” he says. Currently, the largest constellation consists of around 7000 Starlink satellites operated by SpaceX. How much will the Golden Dome cost? Trump proposed a budget of $175 billion for the Golden Dome, although that funding has not yet been approved by the US Congress. And the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan federal agency, estimated that a space-based interceptor system like Golden Dome could cost as much as $542 billion. “It’s unclear what expenditures are included in the $175 billion figure,” says Patrycja Bazylczyk at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a think tank in Washington DC. Trump also claimed the Golden Dome would be “fully operational” by the end of his second term in office in early 2029, although experts doubt that is possible. “The three-year timeline is aggressive – this initiative is likely to span at least a decade, if not more,” says Bazylczyk. Much of the timeline may depend upon how many existing military systems it uses. “Significant progress is feasible in the near term, including fielding new interceptors, over-the-horizon radars, space-based sensors and technology demonstrations,” says Bazylczyk. But there are major limitations to how quickly the US could launch the potentially thousands of satellites required for Golden Dome – to say nothing of developing the space-based interceptor technologies. “I think you’d be very hard-pressed to find a launch cadence that could support a large constellation going up in just three years,” says Roberts. “SpaceX launches more things more often than anyone in the history of space operations, and the ask here is to crack open that ceiling even further.” “I think it is almost impossible a system could be ‘fully operational’ in the sense of ‘stop 100 per cent of a missile attack’ that quickly,” says Burbach. “Reaching even a small-scale operational capability that soon would be very difficult.” Will Golden Dome make the US safer? There is already an ongoing arms race between the US, China and Russia, with all three countries modernising and expanding their nuclear arsenals, as well as developing space-based systems to support their militaries. If the Golden Dome system can improve US air and missile defences, it could “change the strategic calculus” by reducing the confidence of any missile-armed adversary, deterring them from launching attacks in the first place, says Bazylczyk. On the other hand, the Golden Dome has the “potential to contribute to instability” by “signalling to your nuclear adversaries that you simply don’t trust them”, says Roberts. China’s foreign ministry responded to Trump’s announcement by saying the Golden Dome carries “strong offensive implications” and raises the risks of an arms race in space. A Kremlin spokesperson suggested the Golden Dome plans could lead to resumption of nuclear arms control discussions between Russia and the US. To counter this system, China and Russia might try to “destroy or disable US satellites”, says Burbach. Both countries already have missiles capable of shooting down satellites, and they could also try to electronically jam or hack US satellite systems, he says. In February 2024, the US government warned that Russia had plans to launch a space weapon capable of disabling or destroying satellites, possibly using a nuclear explosion. These countries could also bulk up their missile arsenals and possibly develop more manoeuvrable weapons that also use decoys, says Burbach. He pointed out that Russia has already started developing weapons less vulnerable to space-based interception, such as intercontinental nuclear torpedoes that travel underwater. Topics:

May 23, 20255 min readThe Creepy Calculus of Measuring Death RiskMeet micromorts and microlives, statistical units that help mathematicians to calculate riskBy Manon Bischoff edited by Daisy Yuhas M-SUR/Alamy Stock PhotoPeople are generally bad at assessing probabilities. That’s why we have irrational fears and why we overestimate our odds of winning the lottery.Whenever I have to travel by plane, for example, my palms sweat, my heart races and my thoughts take a gloomy turn. I should be much more worried when I get on my bike in Darmstadt, Germany, where I live. Statistically, I’m in much greater danger on the road than in the air. Yet my bike commute doesn’t cause me any stress at all.Recently, a friend told me about a concept within decision theory that is supposed to help people get a better sense of hazards and risks. In 1980 electrical engineer Ronald Arthur Howard coined the micromort unit to quantify life-threatening danger.On supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.One micromort corresponds to a one-in-a-million chance of dying during a certain activity. Do you want to run a marathon? The risk is seven micromorts. Are you going under general anesthesia? That’s 10 micromorts. To arrive at these figures, you first need detailed statistics. How many people engaged in these activities and died in the process? And the results depend heavily on the group of people being studied (their age, gender, and so on), as well as the geographic location.Better Living through StatisticsSurprisingly, the history of statistics doesn’t go back very far. In the 17th century, British demographer John Graunt pioneered mortality statistics by analyzing records of deaths and baptisms. But it would take another 200 years for society to recognize the social benefits of these approaches.Today the utility of this mathematical subfield is undisputed. Insurance companies and banks use statistics to carry out risk assessments. Statistical surveys make it possible to investigate psychological and sociological phenomena. Physical research would be unthinkable without statistics.Thanks to Howard and the micromort, the risks in our everyday lives can also be estimated with the help of statistics. By examining the proportion of people who die while undertaking a particular activity, he was able to create a general mortality risk for those activities.But more recently, mathematician David Spiegelhalter noticed something missing in Howard’s analysis: the micromort unit merely indicates how likely it is that a very specific action will kill us. This may make sense for a one-off activity such as climbing a mountain. But for long-term habits, such as regularly eating fast food, the measure is of only limited use.For example, smoking a cigarette causes just 0.21 micromort and would therefore be significantly less risky than getting out of bed in the morning at the age of 45 (which results in six micromorts). Smoking, however, has long-lasting negative consequences for the body that getting up in the morning does not. The long-term risk is therefore not recorded.So Spiegelhalter introduced the “microlife” measure to take into account the long-term effects of different activities. This quantifies how much life you lose on average by carrying out an activity. Each microlife that is lost reduces your life expectancy by half an hour. Two hours of watching TV each day might cost one microlife, for instance.One of the most significant differences between micromorts and microlives is that one of the two types of units compounds over time, and the other does not. If I survive my morning bike ride to the Darmstadt train station, my micromort count for that ride drops back to zero. The next day I start the journey again with the same risk.It’s different with microlife data: if I smoke a cigarette and then a second one an hour later, the time I’ve lost adds up. And of course, the mere ticking of the clock also shortens my available years of life. Every day 48 microlives are lost.But unlike micromorts, I can regain microlives. For example, a 20-minute walk provides me with around two microlives—that is, an extra hour of life expectancy. And eating a healthy diet with fruits and vegetables could gain you four microlives daily.Reality CheckAll these facts and figures are entertaining to read about and can make for interesting conversation starters—“Hey, did you know that this beer shortens your life by about 15 minutes?”—at least with the right crowd. But how do you calculate the microlives you lose as a result of an action?First, you have to compare the life expectancy of different people. For example: How does the life expectancy of smokers and nonsmokers differ? By taking this difference and dividing it by the average number of cigarettes smoked, we can calculate the average amount of time that each cigarette robs us of.This result is clearly inexact. The difference in life expectancy will also depend on factors such as a person’s gender, place of residence and age. These data can still be captured, but when it comes to general lifestyle factors, things get complicated. For example, studies show that many smokers generally have an unhealthier lifestyle and exercise less.Such correlations cannot always be calculated and accounted for. When it comes to smoking, however, there have been long-term studies that followed many people, some of whom stopped smoking at some point in their life, over several decades.These data make it easier to isolate the effect that smoking has on a person’s life expectancy. Such research suggests that a single cigarette is likely to rob a person of slightly less than the originally calculated 15 minutes of life if they have the other lifestyle habits of a nonsmoker. So should we be consulting statistics at the start of every day to maximize our lifespan? Perhaps we should be studying these analyses to engage in activities with as few micromorts as possible and try to gain, rather than lose, microlives?Not exactly. Micromorts and microlives can help you better assess risks. But you shouldn’t attach too much importance to them. After all, our world is complex. You may gain back two microlives during a walk, but you could also get in an unlucky accident along the way and be hit by a car. Ultimately, micromorts and microlives are just too simple a tool to evaluate the full range of consequences associated with an action. Exercise can improve your state of mind, which has a positive effect not only on your quality of life but also on your lifespan.That said, it can still be a source of comfort to turn to statistics—particularly when we want to understand if our fear is rational or not. For my part, I will try to remind myself of how few micromorts are associated with flying. Maybe that will help.This article originally appeared in Spektrum der Wissenschaft and was reproduced with permission.

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images; Getty Images; BIWall Street banks are proving that generative AI is here to stay, and the tech is not just a fad.Business Insider has reported on how some of finance's biggest banks are approaching generative AI.See how giants like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are weaving the tech into the fabric of their firms.Wall Street bank leaders say generative AI is here to stay, and they're weaving the technology throughout the fabric of their banks to make sure.From trading to payments to marketing, it's hard to find a corner of the banking industry that isn't claiming to use AI.In fact, the technology's impact, made mainstream by OpenAI's ChatGPT in late 2022, is becoming cultural. Generative AI is changing what it takes to be a software developer and how to stand out as a junior banker, especially as banks mull over how to roll out autonomous AI agents. The technology is even changing roles in the c-suite. But it's also presented new challenges — bank leaders say they are struggling to keep up with AI-powered cyberattacks.From supercharging productivity via AI-boosted search engines to figuring out the best way banks can realize a return on their AI investments, here's what we know about how Wall Street banks are embracing AI.JPMorgan ChaseJPMorgan CEO Jamie DimonTom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty ImagesJPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon is a "tremendous" user of the bank's generative AI suite. We have the story of how he and other bank executives use AI.JPMorgan's AI rollout: Jamie Dimon's a 'tremendous' user and it's caused some 'healthy competition' among teamsJPMorgan is making a big bet on AI. Here's how its private bankers are using it.Dimon also laid out his vision for how America's largest bank will win the AI battle against fintechs through data. Meet the leaders of that mission.Jamie Dimon says he's out to win the AI arms race. See who he's put in charge of this critical mission.JPMorgan's Lori Beer just added 2 new tech leaders to her ranks. Meet the team behind the bank's AI future.Mary Erdoes, the boss of JPM's asset- and wealth-management business, used these slides to outline how she wants to get her people ready for the "AI of the future."Here's how JPM boss Mary Erdoes wants to use AI to eliminate "no joy" workIt's not just JPMorgan's in-house tech teams that have been gearing up for an AI future. Cloud partners, like AWS, also play an important role.AWS is helping financial giants like JPMorgan and Bridgewater with their AI ambitionsGoldman SachsGoldman Sachs' David SolomonMichael KovacIs Goldman in its AI era? These real-world stories about employees using AI (in some cases daily) make it seem so. Take a look at how AI is being put to the test across the bank and seniority levels, from C-suites to analysts.7 Goldman Sachs insiders explain how the bank's new AI sidekick is helping them crush it at workGoldman is assembling a growing arsenal of AI tools. Here's everything we know about 5.AI is doing 95% of the work on an IPO prospectus, Goldman Sachs CEO saysGoldman's top partners and CEO David Solomon are eager to see AI rev up their businesses. From realizing internal productivity gains to capturing more business as clients look to raise money in anticipation of AI development and acquisitions, here's what the top echelon is expecting.How AI will shake up Goldman Sachs, according to top partners and CEO David SolomonInside Goldman Sachs' plans for AI, from helping non-tech workers do more with software to streamlining how code is documentedThere is no AI without data, and there is no data strategy at Goldman without its chief data officer, Neema Raphael. Raphael gave BI an inside look at how his roughly 500-person team melds with the rest of the bank to get the most out of its data.Meet Neema Raphael, the data whiz key to Goldman's AI ambitions who's overseeing the bank's army of engineers and scientistsAI's impact has ripple effects that go far beyond technology. Goldman's chief information officer, Marco Argenti, predicts that cultural change will be critical to getting the bank to 100% adoption.Goldman Sachs CIO Marco Argenti says Wall Street's 'next big wave' in AI will come down to culture, not just technologyMany dollars are being spent on Wall Street's AI ambitions. But how do you measure the return on the investment? Argenti offers some tips on the calculus that can help firms prioritize where to invest.As AI usage ramps up on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs CIO details how the bank analyzes return on investment for the techMorgan StanleyMorgan Stanley CEO Ted PickJeenah Moon / ReutersMorgan Stanley wants to turn employees' AI ideas into a reality. Here's an exclusive look at that process.Morgan Stanley has 30 AI projects in the pipeline. Here's how the bank sources employees' ideas for inspiration.See how AI is transforming Morgan Stanley's wealth division and the jobs of its 16,000 financial advisors.Morgan Stanley is betting on AI to free up advisors' time to be 'more human.' Nearly 100% of advisor teams use it, and here's how.Thanks to its partnership with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, Morgan Stanley has ramped up its AI efforts. The exec in charge of tech partnerships and firmwide innovation opened up about how it all started.Morgan Stanley's new innovation head lays out his plan for more OpenAI-type partnershipsA Morgan Stanley exec breaks down how the bank courts tech partners like OpenAICitiCiti's Jane FraserNICHOLAS KAMM/Getty ImagesMeet the new exec in charge of giving an AI facelift to Citi's lagging wealth business.Citi snags AI leader from Morgan Stanley to help turn around its wealth techCiti's top tech executive, Shadman Zafar, outlined the bank's four-phased AI strategy and how it will "change how we work for decades to come."A top Citi tech exec breaks down the 4 phases of the bank's AI strategy that will impact everyone from operations to wealth and productBank of AmericaBank of America's Brian MoynihanJohn Lamparski/Getty ImagesBank of America's chief experience officer, Rob Pascal, details how the bank's internal-facing AI assistant helps bankers collect, record, and review client data. Here are all the ways it's helping employees be more effective and efficient.How Bank of America is using an AI-powered tool to help its bankers prep for client meetings more efficientlyAI hits the investment bankWall Street investment banks prepare for an AI future.Momo Takahashi/BIInvestment bankers are hopeful that corporate America's obsession with AI could kick off a new era of mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs. From execs stepping into recently created roles to accommodate the sector to industry veterans launching their own AI-focused M&A-advisory firm, meet 11 investment bankers poised to lead Wall Street's AI revolution.Wall Street is gearing up for an AI shopping spree. Meet 11 bankers poised to come out on top.We spoke with four of those AI bankers about why 2025 is going to be all about AI pickaxes and shovels rather than pure-play AI deals.The deals 4 tech bankers think the 'AI arms race' could drive in 2025AI could save junior bankers time by automating tedious tasks known all too well by Wall Street's youngest ranks. But it can also make it harder to break into the industry by shifting the skills required for entry.How AI will change the job of the junior banker and raise the bar to entryA former Goldman Sachs managing director built an AI-powered networking tool to spur dealmaking. The budding startup, Louisa AI, already has a few clients, including Goldman Sachs, Insight Partners, and a global exchange.See the pitch deck that helped a former Goldman Sachs exec raise $5 million for an AI-powered networking startup that feeds deal ideas to bankers.Here's how former investment bankers left their Wall Street jobs to build an AI startup to solve junior bankers' woes.See the pitch deck that helped former investment bankers raise a $7 million seed round for their generative 'AI consigliere' to bankers and analystsRead the original article on Business Insider

May 16, 20253 min readTornadoes Expected to Strike Multiple States This Weekend in One of the Worst Seasons This DecadeTornadoes are predicted across swaths of the U.S. in the coming days, likely adding to this year’s already high tally of such stormsBy Meghan Bartels edited by Dean Visser Thomas Trott/Getty ImagesTornadoes threaten huge swaths of the U.S. this weekend amid a season already marked by unusually high storm activity, even as the National Weather Service faces budget cuts likely to impede its ability to respond to severe weather.What to ExpectThe National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has forecast severe thunderstorms with scattered tornadoes—some of them intense—across parts of Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and Ohio for the afternoon and evening of May 16.On supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.“Today we’re expecting a severe weather outbreak across the mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys,” says Jenni Pittman, a meteorologist and deputy chief of the Science and Technology Integration division at the National Weather Service’s Central Region Headquarters. These regions stretch farther east than the historically prevalent “Tornado Alley” of the mid- to late 1900s.“Then we see a renewed chance for severe weather Sunday, continuing Monday and continuing Tuesday as well,” Pittman says. “A lot of the risks on Sunday through Tuesday are going to be from the High Plains pretty much through the Midwest.” National Weather Service maps show these risks concentrated in Kansas and Oklahoma.This weekend’s predicted tornadoes would follow a slight lull in the region, she adds. “We’ve had a little bit of a break here in May, which is typically a pretty busy severe weather month,” Pittman says. “April was very active, and the rest of May does look pretty active as well.”This Year in TornadoesAs of May 15, the National Weather Service has tallied 779 tornadoes in its local storm reports—a preliminary number but a helpful metric for tracking the season’s severity. For comparison, between 2005 and 2015, that same tally averaged 624; between 2010 and 2024, it was 592.“As of mid-May, the U.S. is running well above the typical number of tornadoes to this point in the year,” says Rich Thompson, chief of forecast operations for the Storm Prediction Center.This year to date also stands out against individual years. The most active tornado season of recent years was 2011, when hundreds of storms struck in late April; by mid-May the tally stood at more than 1,300 storms, with more than 2,200 by the end of the year.That year also demonstrated the close connection between just a few days of serious storms and a bad season. “Intense tornadoes are disproportionately responsible for damage, injuries and deaths, and such tornadoes are more common on a few ‘outbreak’ days,” Thompson says. “Thus, the number of outbreak days often determines the severity of the season, with 2011 being the prime example of multiple high-impact tornado outbreaks.”Overall, this year is more on par with last year, which had seen 815 tornado reports by this point in the season. Notably, one third of those storms have occurred during just three outbreak days in March and April, Thompson says.Matthew TwomblyWhat to KnowIf you live in an area where tornadoes are forecast, follow local weather and emergency response offices closely. In general, experts recommend having supplies available to shelter in place and having a safety plan for pets as well as humans. Pittman also recommends that people have multiple ways to stay on top of weather alerts (such as through broadcasts on television and on battery-powered radios, outdoor sirens and fully charged mobile phones).During an event, the National Weather Service recommends that people living where a severe thunderstorm watch is active head to “an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.”If you’re caught away from shelter, the calculus becomes more complicated. In a vehicle, if a storm is still at a distance, you may be able evade it by driving at a right angle to the tornado’s apparent approach. If already caught in the winds, park instead, and either keep your seat belt fastened and protect your head and neck or get out of the car if there’s someplace safe to lie below the elevation of the roadway. Avoid sheltering under bridges, however, which don’t offer much protection, experts note.

Publisher financials sound a warning for industry growth | Opinion As consumers around the world feel the economic squeeze, gaming's value for money is facing new challenges – and publishers are battening down the hatches Image credit: Ubisoft/Lucasfilm Opinion by Rob Fahey Contributing Editor Published on May 16, 2025 Corporate financials season may not be the most exciting of the year's changing seasons, but it does present a rare opportunity to take the industry's pulse in a more-or-less objective way. It would be an exaggeration to say that financial reports and the statements made on the earnings calls which follow them are free of marketing bluster, but different, stricter rules apply here than at other times. Companies can and do spin the numbers, but the numbers themselves have to be reported honestly – which means that everyone gets a chance to see how everyone else is doing, and adjust their own planning and outlook accordingly. Since this is also usually when we get firm updates on shipment figures for console hardware, that's the story that tends to attract the most focus. So with the launch of Switch 2 fast approaching and the threat of tariff impacts looming, it's no surprise that that's been the case on this occasion as well. Still, while platform holder results do hold special importance for the industry, they are somewhat separate from the reality that most other companies in this business are facing. For the broader picture, we really do need to dig into the stack of reports issued from publishers around the globe. This quarter – and indeed this year, since most firms are reporting full-year figures – a lot of those reports make for somewhat serious reading, even by the dry standards of corporate financials. Looking across the major results released in the past few weeks from companies ranging from Capcom, Square Enix, and Sega, through to Ubisoft, Warner Bros, and Take-Two, there's unsurprisingly a great deal of diversity on display given their very different market positions and product line-ups, but there are nonetheless a few trends that go beyond the travails of a single company and are worth exploring as potential bellwethers for the wider industry. Firstly, and perhaps most concerning – sales are generally down, with most companies reporting a drop in revenues over the past year. This isn't universal, with Capcom being a notable exception as it continued a genuinely impressive years-long winning streak, and Take-Two also managing to report a few percentage points of growth thanks largely to great performance for its sports titles. Overall, though, revenues seem to be in decline right now. The underlying causes differ in each case – you can look across each company and pinpoint the specific decisions or problems each of them suffered – but the broader trend is still meaningful. That's especially the case since this fits with the warning signals that have begun flashing in market data from various territories around the world, suggesting that overall consumer spend on gaming has fallen over the past year, albeit only by a relatively small percentage. In spite of the lower sales numbers most companies are reporting, however, several of these publishers are nonetheless showing improvements in operating income – notably Sega and Square Enix, both of which were more profitable over the past year despite their revenues being lower. This is due in part to restructuring and narrowing the focus of their development efforts, but a major factor is also the strong sales of back catalogue titles, which incur minimal costs and are thus great for a company's bottom line. Image credit: Rockstar Games These long-tail sales are proving crucial to keeping the industry's financials looking healthy (and if we take a broad definition, you could make an argument that transactions in games like GTA Online also comprise a form of long-tail sales for Take-Two, for example), but they may also point to a rising price sensitivity among consumers who are showing more willingness to buy competitively priced older games rather than forking out for full-price releases in some cases. Again, if that is the case, it fits with broader economic trends; we know that consumers in a lot of territories are feeling a serious squeeze on their discretionary expenditure, and seeking competitively priced alternatives is a natural response in that case. If that's impacting the games industry's top line, then this could potentially mean that the industry is facing its first actual recession (not counting the mean reversion that we saw after the massive industry growth recorded in the first couple of years of the pandemic). There's a long-standing piece of conventional wisdom which says that although individual sectors may suffer, the games business overall is well-insulated against recessions (we used to say "recession-proof" a couple of decades ago, but I don't know anyone who'd care to make a wager on that statement these days). This is because games offer tremendous value for money compared to most other discretionary expenditures – such that consumers who have slashed their spending on travel, going out, and other expensive hobbies and pursuits may actually end up modestly increasing their gaming expenditure to fill the resulting free time. Even by the games industry's usual standards of franchise obsession, that lack of focus on new IP creation or expansion stands out as unusual That logic has been strongly challenged in recent years by the existence of things like subscription video services, which offer hours-per-dollar of entertainment easily comparable with any game, or free-to-play games. Not to mention the other free alternative preferred by many consumers: doomscrolling your way through hours of brain-rot. Moreover, there's an especially tricky calculus at work right now, because the strong possibility of widespread belt-tightening by consumers is coming right as gaming is in the midst of trying to increase prices for many of its top-line products. The reasons for that are well and good, but the timing is horrible, and in these results we may be seeing the first signs that some groups of consumers are actually noping out of paying higher price points for premium games. It's not just competitively priced back catalogue titles that seem to be over-performing relative to other segments. We're also seeing very strong performance from games (such as EA's Split Fiction, and indie title Clair Obscur: Expedition 33) which chose to launch at $50 price points. Their success is a data point worth bearing in mind at a moment when several publishers are trying to push past $70 and establish $80 as a new regular price level. The fact that things like remasters of back catalogue titles sit comfortably at lower price points may well be part of their appeal, both to consumers and to publishers. The restructuring of development efforts that many publishers are currently undertaking is always described in terms of streamlining and improving, but generally looks a lot like strategic de-risking – focusing in on sure-fire bets and a small number of core franchises. Image credit: Sega/Atlus In fact, one common point across every company that has reported results in the past couple of weeks is that they're all quite open about being tightly focused on three or four core IPs. The only company in the bunch with anything really positive to say about a non-core or original IP was Sega's reference to the strong performance of Metaphor: ReFantazio. Even by the games industry's usual standards of franchise obsession, that lack of focus on new IP creation or expansion stands out as unusual – and even in the companies that are doing very well, like the aforementioned Capcom, it's notable that remakes, remasters, re-imaginings and re-visitings describe pretty much the entire software pipeline. The overall sense is clear: publishers are in battening-down-hatches mode right now. In that respect, assuming the economic situation is going to worsen, this approach probably makes sense. Companies facing a market in which consumers are feeling financially precarious need to focus on relatively sure bets for their headline titles, and fill in the gaps with lower-cost games, for which digging into the back catalogue is ideal. In the medium to long term, though, we have to hope against hope that publishers who are narrowing their focus to tentpole franchises right now have some strategy for getting back to building new IPs eventually. Franchise exhaustion is also a very real concern, and growth, ultimately, has to come through creative innovation. No company can run forever just by finding increasingly aggressive ways to flog the same dying horses.