• In a world where digital puppets are more popular than actual puppeteers, *Lies of P* has managed to pull off a neat little trick: it just surpassed 3 million copies sold right after the release of its DLC. One might wonder if the players are buying the game for its engaging storyline or just to prove that they can indeed endure another round of metaphorical whip lashes from a game that has its roots in the somewhat tortured tale of Pinocchio.

    Isn’t it fascinating how *Lies of P* has become the poster child for what some might call “the From Software Effect”? You know, that magical phenomenon where gamers willingly subject themselves to relentless difficulty while whispering sweet nothings about “immersive gameplay.” Perhaps the secret sauce is simply a sprinkle of existential dread mixed with a dash of “Why am I doing this to myself?”

    Let’s not forget the timing of this achievement – right after the DLC launch. Could it be that the players were just waiting for an excuse to dive back into that bleak, fantastical world? Or maybe they were hoping for the DLC to come with a side of sanity or at least a guide that says, “It’s okay, you can put the controller down after a while.” But no, why would anyone want a game that respects their time?

    Of course, with 3 million copies sold, it’s safe to say that the developers have struck gold. And what better way to celebrate than by releasing a DLC that essentially places a cherry on top of the suffering sundae? Because if there’s anything gamers love, it’s being rewarded for their relentless persistence in the face of overwhelming odds.

    And let’s take a moment to appreciate the irony here. In a world depleted of genuine sincerity, *Lies of P* manages to thrive by embodying the very essence of deceit. Is it a game about lying? Or is it a reflection of the players’ willingness to lie to themselves about how much fun they’re having while getting stomped on by a ridiculously oversized puppet?

    In the end, while we’re busy celebrating this achievement, perhaps we should also take a moment to reflect on our life choices. Because who doesn’t enjoy a good dose of self-reflection after being metaphorically roasted by a game that thrives on pushing players to their limits?

    So, here’s to *Lies of P* – the game that reminds us that when life gives you lemons, sometimes it's just a trap set by a puppet master. Cheers to the 3 million players who have chosen to embrace the lie!

    #LiesOfP #GamingNews #DLC #FromSoftware #GamingCommunity
    In a world where digital puppets are more popular than actual puppeteers, *Lies of P* has managed to pull off a neat little trick: it just surpassed 3 million copies sold right after the release of its DLC. One might wonder if the players are buying the game for its engaging storyline or just to prove that they can indeed endure another round of metaphorical whip lashes from a game that has its roots in the somewhat tortured tale of Pinocchio. Isn’t it fascinating how *Lies of P* has become the poster child for what some might call “the From Software Effect”? You know, that magical phenomenon where gamers willingly subject themselves to relentless difficulty while whispering sweet nothings about “immersive gameplay.” Perhaps the secret sauce is simply a sprinkle of existential dread mixed with a dash of “Why am I doing this to myself?” Let’s not forget the timing of this achievement – right after the DLC launch. Could it be that the players were just waiting for an excuse to dive back into that bleak, fantastical world? Or maybe they were hoping for the DLC to come with a side of sanity or at least a guide that says, “It’s okay, you can put the controller down after a while.” But no, why would anyone want a game that respects their time? Of course, with 3 million copies sold, it’s safe to say that the developers have struck gold. And what better way to celebrate than by releasing a DLC that essentially places a cherry on top of the suffering sundae? Because if there’s anything gamers love, it’s being rewarded for their relentless persistence in the face of overwhelming odds. And let’s take a moment to appreciate the irony here. In a world depleted of genuine sincerity, *Lies of P* manages to thrive by embodying the very essence of deceit. Is it a game about lying? Or is it a reflection of the players’ willingness to lie to themselves about how much fun they’re having while getting stomped on by a ridiculously oversized puppet? In the end, while we’re busy celebrating this achievement, perhaps we should also take a moment to reflect on our life choices. Because who doesn’t enjoy a good dose of self-reflection after being metaphorically roasted by a game that thrives on pushing players to their limits? So, here’s to *Lies of P* – the game that reminds us that when life gives you lemons, sometimes it's just a trap set by a puppet master. Cheers to the 3 million players who have chosen to embrace the lie! #LiesOfP #GamingNews #DLC #FromSoftware #GamingCommunity
    Juste après la sortie de son DLC, Lies of P dépasse les 3 millions d’exemplaires
    ActuGaming.net Juste après la sortie de son DLC, Lies of P dépasse les 3 millions d’exemplaires Sans doute l’une des meilleures alternatives aux jeux de From Software, Lies of P a […] L'article Juste après la sortie de son DLC, Lie
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  • Why Designers Get Stuck In The Details And How To Stop

    You’ve drawn fifty versions of the same screen — and you still hate every one of them. Begrudgingly, you pick three, show them to your product manager, and hear: “Looks cool, but the idea doesn’t work.” Sound familiar?
    In this article, I’ll unpack why designers fall into detail work at the wrong moment, examining both process pitfalls and the underlying psychological reasons, as understanding these traps is the first step to overcoming them. I’ll also share tactics I use to climb out of that trap.
    Reason #1 You’re Afraid To Show Rough Work
    We designers worship detail. We’re taught that true craft equals razor‑sharp typography, perfect grids, and pixel precision. So the minute a task arrives, we pop open Figma and start polishing long before polish is needed.
    I’ve skipped the sketch phase more times than I care to admit. I told myself it would be faster, yet I always ended up spending hours producing a tidy mock‑up when a scribbled thumbnail would have sparked a five‑minute chat with my product manager. Rough sketches felt “unprofessional,” so I hid them.
    The cost? Lost time, wasted energy — and, by the third redo, teammates were quietly wondering if I even understood the brief.
    The real problem here is the habit: we open Figma and start perfecting the UI before we’ve even solved the problem.
    So why do we hide these rough sketches? It’s not just a bad habit or plain silly. There are solid psychological reasons behind it. We often just call it perfectionism, but it’s deeper than wanting things neat. Digging into the psychologyshows there are a couple of flavors driving this:

    Socially prescribed perfectionismIt’s that nagging feeling that everyone else expects perfect work from you, which makes showing anything rough feel like walking into the lion’s den.
    Self-oriented perfectionismWhere you’re the one setting impossibly high standards for yourself, leading to brutal self-criticism if anything looks slightly off.

    Either way, the result’s the same: showing unfinished work feels wrong, and you miss out on that vital early feedback.
    Back to the design side, remember that clients rarely see architects’ first pencil sketches, but these sketches still exist; they guide structural choices before the 3D render. Treat your thumbnails the same way — artifacts meant to collapse uncertainty, not portfolio pieces. Once stakeholders see the upside, roughness becomes a badge of speed, not sloppiness. So, the key is to consciously make that shift:
    Treat early sketches as disposable tools for thinking and actively share them to get feedback faster.

    Reason #2: You Fix The Symptom, Not The Cause
    Before tackling any task, we need to understand what business outcome we’re aiming for. Product managers might come to us asking to enlarge the payment button in the shopping cart because users aren’t noticing it. The suggested solution itself isn’t necessarily bad, but before redesigning the button, we should ask, “What data suggests they aren’t noticing it?” Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you shouldn’t trust your product manager. On the contrary, these questions help ensure you’re on the same page and working with the same data.
    From my experience, here are several reasons why users might not be clicking that coveted button:

    Users don’t understand that this step is for payment.
    They understand it’s about payment but expect order confirmation first.
    Due to incorrect translation, users don’t understand what the button means.
    Lack of trust signals.
    Unexpected additional coststhat appear at this stage.
    Technical issues.

    Now, imagine you simply did what the manager suggested. Would you have solved the problem? Hardly.
    Moreover, the responsibility for the unresolved issue would fall on you, as the interface solution lies within the design domain. The product manager actually did their job correctly by identifying a problem: suspiciously, few users are clicking the button.
    Psychologically, taking on this bigger role isn’t easy. It means overcoming the fear of making mistakes and the discomfort of exploring unclear problems rather than just doing tasks. This shift means seeing ourselves as partners who create value — even if it means fighting a hesitation to question product managers— and understanding that using our product logic expertise proactively is crucial for modern designers.
    There’s another critical reason why we, designers, need to be a bit like product managers: the rise of AI. I deliberately used a simple example about enlarging a button, but I’m confident that in the near future, AI will easily handle routine design tasks. This worries me, but at the same time, I’m already gladly stepping into the product manager’s territory: understanding product and business metrics, formulating hypotheses, conducting research, and so on. It might sound like I’m taking work away from PMs, but believe me, they undoubtedly have enough on their plates and are usually more than happy to delegate some responsibilities to designers.
    Reason #3: You’re Solving The Wrong Problem
    Before solving anything, ask whether the problem even deserves your attention.
    During a major home‑screen redesign, our goal was to drive more users into paid services. The initial hypothesis — making service buttons bigger and brighter might help returning users — seemed reasonable enough to test. However, even when A/B testsshowed minimal impact, we continued to tweak those buttons.
    Only later did it click: the home screen isn’t the place to sell; visitors open the app to start, not to buy. We removed that promo block, and nothing broke. Contextual entry points deeper into the journey performed brilliantly. Lesson learned:
    Without the right context, any visual tweak is lipstick on a pig.

    Why did we get stuck polishing buttons instead of stopping sooner? It’s easy to get tunnel vision. Psychologically, it’s likely the good old sunk cost fallacy kicking in: we’d already invested time in the buttons, so stopping felt like wasting that effort, even though the data wasn’t promising.
    It’s just easier to keep fiddling with something familiar than to admit we need a new plan. Perhaps the simple question I should have asked myself when results stalled was: “Are we optimizing the right thing or just polishing something that fundamentally doesn’t fit the user’s primary goal here?” That alone might have saved hours.
    Reason #4: You’re Drowning In Unactionable Feedback
    We all discuss our work with colleagues. But here’s a crucial point: what kind of question do you pose to kick off that discussion? If your go-to is “What do you think?” well, that question might lead you down a rabbit hole of personal opinions rather than actionable insights. While experienced colleagues will cut through the noise, others, unsure what to evaluate, might comment on anything and everything — fonts, button colors, even when you desperately need to discuss a user flow.
    What matters here are two things:

    The question you ask,
    The context you give.

    That means clearly stating the problem, what you’ve learned, and how your idea aims to fix it.
    For instance:
    “The problem is our payment conversion rate has dropped by X%. I’ve interviewed users and found they abandon payment because they don’t understand how the total amount is calculated. My solution is to show a detailed cost breakdown. Do you think this actually solves the problem for them?”

    Here, you’ve stated the problem, shared your insight, explained your solution, and asked a direct question. It’s even better if you prepare a list of specific sub-questions. For instance: “Are all items in the cost breakdown clear?” or “Does the placement of this breakdown feel intuitive within the payment flow?”
    Another good habit is to keep your rough sketches and previous iterations handy. Some of your colleagues’ suggestions might be things you’ve already tried. It’s great if you can discuss them immediately to either revisit those ideas or definitively set them aside.
    I’m not a psychologist, but experience tells me that, psychologically, the reluctance to be this specific often stems from a fear of our solution being rejected. We tend to internalize feedback: a seemingly innocent comment like, “Have you considered other ways to organize this section?” or “Perhaps explore a different structure for this part?” can instantly morph in our minds into “You completely messed up the structure. You’re a bad designer.” Imposter syndrome, in all its glory.
    So, to wrap up this point, here are two recommendations:

    Prepare for every design discussion.A couple of focused questions will yield far more valuable input than a vague “So, what do you think?”.
    Actively work on separating feedback on your design from your self-worth.If a mistake is pointed out, acknowledge it, learn from it, and you’ll be less likely to repeat it. This is often easier said than done. For me, it took years of working with a psychotherapist. If you struggle with this, I sincerely wish you strength in overcoming it.

    Reason #5 You’re Just Tired
    Sometimes, the issue isn’t strategic at all — it’s fatigue. Fussing over icon corners can feel like a cozy bunker when your brain is fried. There’s a name for this: decision fatigue. Basically, your brain’s battery for hard thinking is low, so it hides out in the easy, comfy zone of pixel-pushing.
    A striking example comes from a New York Times article titled “Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue?.” It described how judges deciding on release requests were far more likely to grant release early in the daycompared to late in the daysimply because their decision-making energy was depleted. Luckily, designers rarely hold someone’s freedom in their hands, but the example dramatically shows how fatigue can impact our judgment and productivity.
    What helps here:

    Swap tasks.Trade tickets with another designer; novelty resets your focus.
    Talk to another designer.If NDA permits, ask peers outside the team for a sanity check.
    Step away.Even a ten‑minute walk can do more than a double‑shot espresso.

    By the way, I came up with these ideas while walking around my office. I was lucky to work near a river, and those short walks quickly turned into a helpful habit.

    And one more trick that helps me snap out of detail mode early: if I catch myself making around 20 little tweaks — changing font weight, color, border radius — I just stop. Over time, it turned into a habit. I have a similar one with Instagram: by the third reel, my brain quietly asks, “Wait, weren’t we working?” Funny how that kind of nudge saves a ton of time.
    Four Steps I Use to Avoid Drowning In Detail
    Knowing these potential traps, here’s the practical process I use to stay on track:
    1. Define the Core Problem & Business Goal
    Before anything, dig deep: what’s the actual problem we’re solving, not just the requested task or a surface-level symptom? Ask ‘why’ repeatedly. What user pain or business need are we addressing? Then, state the clear business goal: “What metric am I moving, and do we have data to prove this is the right lever?” If retention is the goal, decide whether push reminders, gamification, or personalised content is the best route. The wrong lever, or tackling a symptom instead of the cause, dooms everything downstream.
    2. Choose the MechanicOnce the core problem and goal are clear, lock the solution principle or ‘mechanic’ first. Going with a game layer? Decide if it’s leaderboards, streaks, or badges. Write it down. Then move on. No UI yet. This keeps the focus high-level before diving into pixels.
    3. Wireframe the Flow & Get Focused Feedback
    Now open Figma. Map screens, layout, and transitions. Boxes and arrows are enough. Keep the fidelity low so the discussion stays on the flow, not colour. Crucially, when you share these early wires, ask specific questions and provide clear contextto get actionable feedback, not just vague opinions.
    4. Polish the VisualsI only let myself tweak grids, type scales, and shadows after the flow is validated. If progress stalls, or before a major polish effort, I surface the work in a design critique — again using targeted questions and clear context — instead of hiding in version 47. This ensures detailing serves the now-validated solution.
    Even for something as small as a single button, running these four checkpoints takes about ten minutes and saves hours of decorative dithering.
    Wrapping Up
    Next time you feel the pull to vanish into mock‑ups before the problem is nailed down, pause and ask what you might be avoiding. Yes, that can expose an uncomfortable truth. But pausing to ask what you might be avoiding — maybe the fuzzy core problem, or just asking for tough feedback — gives you the power to face the real issue head-on. It keeps the project focused on solving the right problem, not just perfecting a flawed solution.
    Attention to detail is a superpower when used at the right moment. Obsessing over pixels too soon, though, is a bad habit and a warning light telling us the process needs a rethink.
    #why #designers #get #stuck #details
    Why Designers Get Stuck In The Details And How To Stop
    You’ve drawn fifty versions of the same screen — and you still hate every one of them. Begrudgingly, you pick three, show them to your product manager, and hear: “Looks cool, but the idea doesn’t work.” Sound familiar? In this article, I’ll unpack why designers fall into detail work at the wrong moment, examining both process pitfalls and the underlying psychological reasons, as understanding these traps is the first step to overcoming them. I’ll also share tactics I use to climb out of that trap. Reason #1 You’re Afraid To Show Rough Work We designers worship detail. We’re taught that true craft equals razor‑sharp typography, perfect grids, and pixel precision. So the minute a task arrives, we pop open Figma and start polishing long before polish is needed. I’ve skipped the sketch phase more times than I care to admit. I told myself it would be faster, yet I always ended up spending hours producing a tidy mock‑up when a scribbled thumbnail would have sparked a five‑minute chat with my product manager. Rough sketches felt “unprofessional,” so I hid them. The cost? Lost time, wasted energy — and, by the third redo, teammates were quietly wondering if I even understood the brief. The real problem here is the habit: we open Figma and start perfecting the UI before we’ve even solved the problem. So why do we hide these rough sketches? It’s not just a bad habit or plain silly. There are solid psychological reasons behind it. We often just call it perfectionism, but it’s deeper than wanting things neat. Digging into the psychologyshows there are a couple of flavors driving this: Socially prescribed perfectionismIt’s that nagging feeling that everyone else expects perfect work from you, which makes showing anything rough feel like walking into the lion’s den. Self-oriented perfectionismWhere you’re the one setting impossibly high standards for yourself, leading to brutal self-criticism if anything looks slightly off. Either way, the result’s the same: showing unfinished work feels wrong, and you miss out on that vital early feedback. Back to the design side, remember that clients rarely see architects’ first pencil sketches, but these sketches still exist; they guide structural choices before the 3D render. Treat your thumbnails the same way — artifacts meant to collapse uncertainty, not portfolio pieces. Once stakeholders see the upside, roughness becomes a badge of speed, not sloppiness. So, the key is to consciously make that shift: Treat early sketches as disposable tools for thinking and actively share them to get feedback faster. Reason #2: You Fix The Symptom, Not The Cause Before tackling any task, we need to understand what business outcome we’re aiming for. Product managers might come to us asking to enlarge the payment button in the shopping cart because users aren’t noticing it. The suggested solution itself isn’t necessarily bad, but before redesigning the button, we should ask, “What data suggests they aren’t noticing it?” Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you shouldn’t trust your product manager. On the contrary, these questions help ensure you’re on the same page and working with the same data. From my experience, here are several reasons why users might not be clicking that coveted button: Users don’t understand that this step is for payment. They understand it’s about payment but expect order confirmation first. Due to incorrect translation, users don’t understand what the button means. Lack of trust signals. Unexpected additional coststhat appear at this stage. Technical issues. Now, imagine you simply did what the manager suggested. Would you have solved the problem? Hardly. Moreover, the responsibility for the unresolved issue would fall on you, as the interface solution lies within the design domain. The product manager actually did their job correctly by identifying a problem: suspiciously, few users are clicking the button. Psychologically, taking on this bigger role isn’t easy. It means overcoming the fear of making mistakes and the discomfort of exploring unclear problems rather than just doing tasks. This shift means seeing ourselves as partners who create value — even if it means fighting a hesitation to question product managers— and understanding that using our product logic expertise proactively is crucial for modern designers. There’s another critical reason why we, designers, need to be a bit like product managers: the rise of AI. I deliberately used a simple example about enlarging a button, but I’m confident that in the near future, AI will easily handle routine design tasks. This worries me, but at the same time, I’m already gladly stepping into the product manager’s territory: understanding product and business metrics, formulating hypotheses, conducting research, and so on. It might sound like I’m taking work away from PMs, but believe me, they undoubtedly have enough on their plates and are usually more than happy to delegate some responsibilities to designers. Reason #3: You’re Solving The Wrong Problem Before solving anything, ask whether the problem even deserves your attention. During a major home‑screen redesign, our goal was to drive more users into paid services. The initial hypothesis — making service buttons bigger and brighter might help returning users — seemed reasonable enough to test. However, even when A/B testsshowed minimal impact, we continued to tweak those buttons. Only later did it click: the home screen isn’t the place to sell; visitors open the app to start, not to buy. We removed that promo block, and nothing broke. Contextual entry points deeper into the journey performed brilliantly. Lesson learned: Without the right context, any visual tweak is lipstick on a pig. Why did we get stuck polishing buttons instead of stopping sooner? It’s easy to get tunnel vision. Psychologically, it’s likely the good old sunk cost fallacy kicking in: we’d already invested time in the buttons, so stopping felt like wasting that effort, even though the data wasn’t promising. It’s just easier to keep fiddling with something familiar than to admit we need a new plan. Perhaps the simple question I should have asked myself when results stalled was: “Are we optimizing the right thing or just polishing something that fundamentally doesn’t fit the user’s primary goal here?” That alone might have saved hours. Reason #4: You’re Drowning In Unactionable Feedback We all discuss our work with colleagues. But here’s a crucial point: what kind of question do you pose to kick off that discussion? If your go-to is “What do you think?” well, that question might lead you down a rabbit hole of personal opinions rather than actionable insights. While experienced colleagues will cut through the noise, others, unsure what to evaluate, might comment on anything and everything — fonts, button colors, even when you desperately need to discuss a user flow. What matters here are two things: The question you ask, The context you give. That means clearly stating the problem, what you’ve learned, and how your idea aims to fix it. For instance: “The problem is our payment conversion rate has dropped by X%. I’ve interviewed users and found they abandon payment because they don’t understand how the total amount is calculated. My solution is to show a detailed cost breakdown. Do you think this actually solves the problem for them?” Here, you’ve stated the problem, shared your insight, explained your solution, and asked a direct question. It’s even better if you prepare a list of specific sub-questions. For instance: “Are all items in the cost breakdown clear?” or “Does the placement of this breakdown feel intuitive within the payment flow?” Another good habit is to keep your rough sketches and previous iterations handy. Some of your colleagues’ suggestions might be things you’ve already tried. It’s great if you can discuss them immediately to either revisit those ideas or definitively set them aside. I’m not a psychologist, but experience tells me that, psychologically, the reluctance to be this specific often stems from a fear of our solution being rejected. We tend to internalize feedback: a seemingly innocent comment like, “Have you considered other ways to organize this section?” or “Perhaps explore a different structure for this part?” can instantly morph in our minds into “You completely messed up the structure. You’re a bad designer.” Imposter syndrome, in all its glory. So, to wrap up this point, here are two recommendations: Prepare for every design discussion.A couple of focused questions will yield far more valuable input than a vague “So, what do you think?”. Actively work on separating feedback on your design from your self-worth.If a mistake is pointed out, acknowledge it, learn from it, and you’ll be less likely to repeat it. This is often easier said than done. For me, it took years of working with a psychotherapist. If you struggle with this, I sincerely wish you strength in overcoming it. Reason #5 You’re Just Tired Sometimes, the issue isn’t strategic at all — it’s fatigue. Fussing over icon corners can feel like a cozy bunker when your brain is fried. There’s a name for this: decision fatigue. Basically, your brain’s battery for hard thinking is low, so it hides out in the easy, comfy zone of pixel-pushing. A striking example comes from a New York Times article titled “Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue?.” It described how judges deciding on release requests were far more likely to grant release early in the daycompared to late in the daysimply because their decision-making energy was depleted. Luckily, designers rarely hold someone’s freedom in their hands, but the example dramatically shows how fatigue can impact our judgment and productivity. What helps here: Swap tasks.Trade tickets with another designer; novelty resets your focus. Talk to another designer.If NDA permits, ask peers outside the team for a sanity check. Step away.Even a ten‑minute walk can do more than a double‑shot espresso. By the way, I came up with these ideas while walking around my office. I was lucky to work near a river, and those short walks quickly turned into a helpful habit. And one more trick that helps me snap out of detail mode early: if I catch myself making around 20 little tweaks — changing font weight, color, border radius — I just stop. Over time, it turned into a habit. I have a similar one with Instagram: by the third reel, my brain quietly asks, “Wait, weren’t we working?” Funny how that kind of nudge saves a ton of time. Four Steps I Use to Avoid Drowning In Detail Knowing these potential traps, here’s the practical process I use to stay on track: 1. Define the Core Problem & Business Goal Before anything, dig deep: what’s the actual problem we’re solving, not just the requested task or a surface-level symptom? Ask ‘why’ repeatedly. What user pain or business need are we addressing? Then, state the clear business goal: “What metric am I moving, and do we have data to prove this is the right lever?” If retention is the goal, decide whether push reminders, gamification, or personalised content is the best route. The wrong lever, or tackling a symptom instead of the cause, dooms everything downstream. 2. Choose the MechanicOnce the core problem and goal are clear, lock the solution principle or ‘mechanic’ first. Going with a game layer? Decide if it’s leaderboards, streaks, or badges. Write it down. Then move on. No UI yet. This keeps the focus high-level before diving into pixels. 3. Wireframe the Flow & Get Focused Feedback Now open Figma. Map screens, layout, and transitions. Boxes and arrows are enough. Keep the fidelity low so the discussion stays on the flow, not colour. Crucially, when you share these early wires, ask specific questions and provide clear contextto get actionable feedback, not just vague opinions. 4. Polish the VisualsI only let myself tweak grids, type scales, and shadows after the flow is validated. If progress stalls, or before a major polish effort, I surface the work in a design critique — again using targeted questions and clear context — instead of hiding in version 47. This ensures detailing serves the now-validated solution. Even for something as small as a single button, running these four checkpoints takes about ten minutes and saves hours of decorative dithering. Wrapping Up Next time you feel the pull to vanish into mock‑ups before the problem is nailed down, pause and ask what you might be avoiding. Yes, that can expose an uncomfortable truth. But pausing to ask what you might be avoiding — maybe the fuzzy core problem, or just asking for tough feedback — gives you the power to face the real issue head-on. It keeps the project focused on solving the right problem, not just perfecting a flawed solution. Attention to detail is a superpower when used at the right moment. Obsessing over pixels too soon, though, is a bad habit and a warning light telling us the process needs a rethink. #why #designers #get #stuck #details
    SMASHINGMAGAZINE.COM
    Why Designers Get Stuck In The Details And How To Stop
    You’ve drawn fifty versions of the same screen — and you still hate every one of them. Begrudgingly, you pick three, show them to your product manager, and hear: “Looks cool, but the idea doesn’t work.” Sound familiar? In this article, I’ll unpack why designers fall into detail work at the wrong moment, examining both process pitfalls and the underlying psychological reasons, as understanding these traps is the first step to overcoming them. I’ll also share tactics I use to climb out of that trap. Reason #1 You’re Afraid To Show Rough Work We designers worship detail. We’re taught that true craft equals razor‑sharp typography, perfect grids, and pixel precision. So the minute a task arrives, we pop open Figma and start polishing long before polish is needed. I’ve skipped the sketch phase more times than I care to admit. I told myself it would be faster, yet I always ended up spending hours producing a tidy mock‑up when a scribbled thumbnail would have sparked a five‑minute chat with my product manager. Rough sketches felt “unprofessional,” so I hid them. The cost? Lost time, wasted energy — and, by the third redo, teammates were quietly wondering if I even understood the brief. The real problem here is the habit: we open Figma and start perfecting the UI before we’ve even solved the problem. So why do we hide these rough sketches? It’s not just a bad habit or plain silly. There are solid psychological reasons behind it. We often just call it perfectionism, but it’s deeper than wanting things neat. Digging into the psychology (like the research by Hewitt and Flett) shows there are a couple of flavors driving this: Socially prescribed perfectionismIt’s that nagging feeling that everyone else expects perfect work from you, which makes showing anything rough feel like walking into the lion’s den. Self-oriented perfectionismWhere you’re the one setting impossibly high standards for yourself, leading to brutal self-criticism if anything looks slightly off. Either way, the result’s the same: showing unfinished work feels wrong, and you miss out on that vital early feedback. Back to the design side, remember that clients rarely see architects’ first pencil sketches, but these sketches still exist; they guide structural choices before the 3D render. Treat your thumbnails the same way — artifacts meant to collapse uncertainty, not portfolio pieces. Once stakeholders see the upside, roughness becomes a badge of speed, not sloppiness. So, the key is to consciously make that shift: Treat early sketches as disposable tools for thinking and actively share them to get feedback faster. Reason #2: You Fix The Symptom, Not The Cause Before tackling any task, we need to understand what business outcome we’re aiming for. Product managers might come to us asking to enlarge the payment button in the shopping cart because users aren’t noticing it. The suggested solution itself isn’t necessarily bad, but before redesigning the button, we should ask, “What data suggests they aren’t noticing it?” Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying you shouldn’t trust your product manager. On the contrary, these questions help ensure you’re on the same page and working with the same data. From my experience, here are several reasons why users might not be clicking that coveted button: Users don’t understand that this step is for payment. They understand it’s about payment but expect order confirmation first. Due to incorrect translation, users don’t understand what the button means. Lack of trust signals (no security icons, unclear seller information). Unexpected additional costs (hidden fees, shipping) that appear at this stage. Technical issues (inactive button, page freezing). Now, imagine you simply did what the manager suggested. Would you have solved the problem? Hardly. Moreover, the responsibility for the unresolved issue would fall on you, as the interface solution lies within the design domain. The product manager actually did their job correctly by identifying a problem: suspiciously, few users are clicking the button. Psychologically, taking on this bigger role isn’t easy. It means overcoming the fear of making mistakes and the discomfort of exploring unclear problems rather than just doing tasks. This shift means seeing ourselves as partners who create value — even if it means fighting a hesitation to question product managers (which might come from a fear of speaking up or a desire to avoid challenging authority) — and understanding that using our product logic expertise proactively is crucial for modern designers. There’s another critical reason why we, designers, need to be a bit like product managers: the rise of AI. I deliberately used a simple example about enlarging a button, but I’m confident that in the near future, AI will easily handle routine design tasks. This worries me, but at the same time, I’m already gladly stepping into the product manager’s territory: understanding product and business metrics, formulating hypotheses, conducting research, and so on. It might sound like I’m taking work away from PMs, but believe me, they undoubtedly have enough on their plates and are usually more than happy to delegate some responsibilities to designers. Reason #3: You’re Solving The Wrong Problem Before solving anything, ask whether the problem even deserves your attention. During a major home‑screen redesign, our goal was to drive more users into paid services. The initial hypothesis — making service buttons bigger and brighter might help returning users — seemed reasonable enough to test. However, even when A/B tests (a method of comparing two versions of a design to determine which performs better) showed minimal impact, we continued to tweak those buttons. Only later did it click: the home screen isn’t the place to sell; visitors open the app to start, not to buy. We removed that promo block, and nothing broke. Contextual entry points deeper into the journey performed brilliantly. Lesson learned: Without the right context, any visual tweak is lipstick on a pig. Why did we get stuck polishing buttons instead of stopping sooner? It’s easy to get tunnel vision. Psychologically, it’s likely the good old sunk cost fallacy kicking in: we’d already invested time in the buttons, so stopping felt like wasting that effort, even though the data wasn’t promising. It’s just easier to keep fiddling with something familiar than to admit we need a new plan. Perhaps the simple question I should have asked myself when results stalled was: “Are we optimizing the right thing or just polishing something that fundamentally doesn’t fit the user’s primary goal here?” That alone might have saved hours. Reason #4: You’re Drowning In Unactionable Feedback We all discuss our work with colleagues. But here’s a crucial point: what kind of question do you pose to kick off that discussion? If your go-to is “What do you think?” well, that question might lead you down a rabbit hole of personal opinions rather than actionable insights. While experienced colleagues will cut through the noise, others, unsure what to evaluate, might comment on anything and everything — fonts, button colors, even when you desperately need to discuss a user flow. What matters here are two things: The question you ask, The context you give. That means clearly stating the problem, what you’ve learned, and how your idea aims to fix it. For instance: “The problem is our payment conversion rate has dropped by X%. I’ve interviewed users and found they abandon payment because they don’t understand how the total amount is calculated. My solution is to show a detailed cost breakdown. Do you think this actually solves the problem for them?” Here, you’ve stated the problem (conversion drop), shared your insight (user confusion), explained your solution (cost breakdown), and asked a direct question. It’s even better if you prepare a list of specific sub-questions. For instance: “Are all items in the cost breakdown clear?” or “Does the placement of this breakdown feel intuitive within the payment flow?” Another good habit is to keep your rough sketches and previous iterations handy. Some of your colleagues’ suggestions might be things you’ve already tried. It’s great if you can discuss them immediately to either revisit those ideas or definitively set them aside. I’m not a psychologist, but experience tells me that, psychologically, the reluctance to be this specific often stems from a fear of our solution being rejected. We tend to internalize feedback: a seemingly innocent comment like, “Have you considered other ways to organize this section?” or “Perhaps explore a different structure for this part?” can instantly morph in our minds into “You completely messed up the structure. You’re a bad designer.” Imposter syndrome, in all its glory. So, to wrap up this point, here are two recommendations: Prepare for every design discussion.A couple of focused questions will yield far more valuable input than a vague “So, what do you think?”. Actively work on separating feedback on your design from your self-worth.If a mistake is pointed out, acknowledge it, learn from it, and you’ll be less likely to repeat it. This is often easier said than done. For me, it took years of working with a psychotherapist. If you struggle with this, I sincerely wish you strength in overcoming it. Reason #5 You’re Just Tired Sometimes, the issue isn’t strategic at all — it’s fatigue. Fussing over icon corners can feel like a cozy bunker when your brain is fried. There’s a name for this: decision fatigue. Basically, your brain’s battery for hard thinking is low, so it hides out in the easy, comfy zone of pixel-pushing. A striking example comes from a New York Times article titled “Do You Suffer From Decision Fatigue?.” It described how judges deciding on release requests were far more likely to grant release early in the day (about 70% of cases) compared to late in the day (less than 10%) simply because their decision-making energy was depleted. Luckily, designers rarely hold someone’s freedom in their hands, but the example dramatically shows how fatigue can impact our judgment and productivity. What helps here: Swap tasks.Trade tickets with another designer; novelty resets your focus. Talk to another designer.If NDA permits, ask peers outside the team for a sanity check. Step away.Even a ten‑minute walk can do more than a double‑shot espresso. By the way, I came up with these ideas while walking around my office. I was lucky to work near a river, and those short walks quickly turned into a helpful habit. And one more trick that helps me snap out of detail mode early: if I catch myself making around 20 little tweaks — changing font weight, color, border radius — I just stop. Over time, it turned into a habit. I have a similar one with Instagram: by the third reel, my brain quietly asks, “Wait, weren’t we working?” Funny how that kind of nudge saves a ton of time. Four Steps I Use to Avoid Drowning In Detail Knowing these potential traps, here’s the practical process I use to stay on track: 1. Define the Core Problem & Business Goal Before anything, dig deep: what’s the actual problem we’re solving, not just the requested task or a surface-level symptom? Ask ‘why’ repeatedly. What user pain or business need are we addressing? Then, state the clear business goal: “What metric am I moving, and do we have data to prove this is the right lever?” If retention is the goal, decide whether push reminders, gamification, or personalised content is the best route. The wrong lever, or tackling a symptom instead of the cause, dooms everything downstream. 2. Choose the Mechanic (Solution Principle) Once the core problem and goal are clear, lock the solution principle or ‘mechanic’ first. Going with a game layer? Decide if it’s leaderboards, streaks, or badges. Write it down. Then move on. No UI yet. This keeps the focus high-level before diving into pixels. 3. Wireframe the Flow & Get Focused Feedback Now open Figma. Map screens, layout, and transitions. Boxes and arrows are enough. Keep the fidelity low so the discussion stays on the flow, not colour. Crucially, when you share these early wires, ask specific questions and provide clear context (as discussed in ‘Reason #4’) to get actionable feedback, not just vague opinions. 4. Polish the Visuals (Mindfully) I only let myself tweak grids, type scales, and shadows after the flow is validated. If progress stalls, or before a major polish effort, I surface the work in a design critique — again using targeted questions and clear context — instead of hiding in version 47. This ensures detailing serves the now-validated solution. Even for something as small as a single button, running these four checkpoints takes about ten minutes and saves hours of decorative dithering. Wrapping Up Next time you feel the pull to vanish into mock‑ups before the problem is nailed down, pause and ask what you might be avoiding. Yes, that can expose an uncomfortable truth. But pausing to ask what you might be avoiding — maybe the fuzzy core problem, or just asking for tough feedback — gives you the power to face the real issue head-on. It keeps the project focused on solving the right problem, not just perfecting a flawed solution. Attention to detail is a superpower when used at the right moment. Obsessing over pixels too soon, though, is a bad habit and a warning light telling us the process needs a rethink.
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  • Architects, Your Real Competition Isn’t AI — It’s Business Complacency

    Larry Fabbroni is an architect, strategic advisor, and Chief Innovation Officer for Practice of Architecture. Throughout his career, he has led efforts to reform studio culture and innovate practice. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.
    In 2017, as leaders in the AIA’s Young Architects Forum, we led the launch of the Practice Innovation Laband hosted a symposium that imagined new architectural practice models. At that time, we already felt that practice innovation was overdue in a profession that has not seen scaled disruption to its business model in over a century. Today, we are confident that there has never been a more critical time for the profession to embrace innovation.

    Redefining Innovation
    Henley Hall: Institute for Energy Efficiency by KieranTimberlake, Santa Barbara, California | KieranTimberlake’s research expertise creates value beyond a baseline labor model. 
    Currently, artificial intelligence dominates strategy conversations, but just as we saw back in 2017, larger patterns prompt calls for innovation. Talent attraction is increasingly challenging, disruptive technology continues to emerge, and actors from outside our industry show growing interest in the space.
    While incremental innovation has long been a part of the profession, relatively few firms have adopted new practices that create value beyond a baseline labor model. Firms such as KieranTimberlake have shown that research expertise can do this. MASS Design has pioneered a mission-driven approach. BIG has taken on the role of architect-as-developer. Snøhetta houses a product design division. We could continue to list great firms that have pushed the boundaries of practice, but they represent exceptions that have yet to be recognized as new standards.
    Indeed, the confluence of those factors that led to the original PIL continues to make the case that the time for scaled innovation is now.

    A Melting Iceberg: Incremental Changes Depleting the Profession
    Powerhouse Telemark by Snøhetta, Vestfold og Telemark, Norway | Photo by Ivar Kvaal | Snøhetta houses a product design division, innovatively presenting a alternative business model for firms. 
    One of the dangers of operating in a slow-moving industry is that change is difficult to detect and even more challenging to comprehend. If an iceberg loses 1% of mass per year, it’s tough to take notice, but the end result is catastrophic. This is what is happening to our profession. For newcomers, if it feels like there are increasingly more attractive opportunities elsewhere, that’s because there are. For seasoned professionals, if it feels like it’s become more challenging to maintain the same levels of prosperity, that’s because it has.
    LessTalent
    In some ways, the shift towards companies recognizing “talent” as their most excellent resource has bewildered architects: we have always relied on talent. However, the patterns of talent leaving our profession are concerning. We say “feel” because there is no significant data.
    We spoke to Kendall A. Nicholson, Senior Director of Research at the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture, who confirmed that aggregated data on graduate placement does not exist. So we inquired about what placement looks like at several programs around the country. Omar Khan, Head of the Carnegie Mellon University School of Architecture, informed us that approximately 90% of students pursue a minor to expand their horizons, and that in 2022, nearly one in three graduates entered the tech sector. Khan stated that these opportunities aren’t just student-driven — large innovative companies increasingly seek the value that graduates of architecture schools will provide.
    This increasing difficulty in capturing the talent that architecture schools are producing results in a shrinking and diluted talent pool. For a profession so reliant on human resources, this presents extreme risk.
    Pay Gaps
    In an increasingly expensive world, we are not able to compete for the best talent with emerging industries.
    It’s easy to understand why a popular career pivot for architects has become UX design. Designing user experience for websites pays significantly better than designing the same for the built environment. According to Glassdoor, 2023 entry-level UX designers earned an average of K, while the AIA salary calculator suggests architecture grads can expect to earn an average of K.
    The talent we do attract into the profession often loses interest when they experience low pay and long hours, all while most firms lack clear paths and criteria for advancement or compensation increases.
    A Smaller Piece of the Pie
    Examining data in isolation, one might conclude that the profession continues to grow; the number of architects has increased substantially over the last century, and this trend has persisted in recent years.
    The problem with this growth is that the estimated share of the US GDP for Architectural Services has shrunk over time. This is not a manageable number to measure before 1999, when NCARB first aggregated local jurisdictional data. Due to limitations in industry economic data, we’re only showing data since 2011 for the purposes of this article.

    In that time, the number of architects has grown, the market size for services has grown, but the share those services represent as a portion of the US GDP has declined — by 15% if we use US Census data to almost 30% if we use industry research data. To put it another way, architecture is a stagnant industry with a shrinking share of the economy.
    It’s challenging to examine this data and emerge feeling confident about the profession, but there is a silver lining. The biggest impediment to innovation for architects is not a lack of talent, but rather the business model. Design thinking has been widely adopted throughout the world as a key component of innovation processes; however, the problem is that we operate in the realm of professional services, which inherently is not well-suited to promoting innovation. Reliance on that formula is causing our iceberg to melt.

    The Tsunami: The AI Tidal Wave is Here
    The Rwanda Institute for Conservation Agriculture by MASS Design Group, Rwanda | MASS Design has pioneered a mission-driven approach that creates value beyond a baseline labor model. 
    As we confront the exodus of talent, it is easy for both firm owners and clients to imagine AI bringing efficiencies and replacing “CAD-monkeys” with machines. However, any firm that wants to operate — and win — as anything more than a low-cost provider will need a strategy to increase value, not just cut costs. AI is merely part of the toolbox required to confront a perfect storm of forces.
    Jobs will Disappear
    Goldman Sachs predicts that as much as 37% of our industry tasks will be replaced by AI. Many see this as a pathway to lower costs and increased profits. However, that is short-sighted. Markets will adjust quickly and demand lower costs for services; additional new value will need to be articulated and proven, and this will only happen through innovation.
    New Jobs will EmergeAI prophets often emphasize that technological innovation has historically led to net employment gains. Previous World Economic Forum estimates predicted losses of up to 85 million existing jobs worldwide, with parallel gains of as many as 97 million new jobs. However, these estimates were revised in the WEF 2023 Economic Outlook, which now anticipates a net loss of 14 million jobs.
    This stark outlook signals an even greater need for architects to become more innovative. The 2024 RIBA AI Report indicates that 41% of architecture firms were already utilizing AI, though current tools are indeed just the beginning. Marketing, business development and content creation will be standard areas of AI deployment moving forward. Still, revolutionary changes will come in how we learn, not only to use new tools, but also to collaborate with digital agents. How will this happen? We can theorize, but it is not possible to know for sure until it arrives, so we need to have a plan before we can see the tidal wave from land.

    The Alien Invasion: Outsiders Are Entering Our Orbit
    VIA 57 West by BIG – Bjarke Ingels Group, New York City, New York | BIG has pioneered a new model for practice by taking on the role of architect-as-developer.
    For years, we’ve heard cries that “architects gave away the role of master builder.” But how much did architects actually give, and how much was taken by innovative competition? This distinction is critical because the wagons are circling, and the AEC space has become ever more attractive to investors.
    Venture Capital and Private Equity Investment
    The numbers are often difficult to parse because architecture can impact so many verticals and does not operate as its own sector in the investment realm; however, the trends suggest a groundswell is underway.
    A 2023 McKinsey report shows that construction tech deals nearly doubled from 2019 to 2022, growing by 85%. At the same period, the number of deals increased by 30%, indicating that interest continues to grow. An increasing size of deals also suggests a maturity of the market. As interest in infrastructure investments has declined from its high in 2020, and along with real estate, has been blunted by high interest rates, institutional investors continue to see opportunities in the AEC space.
    Firm Acquisitions
    AEC firms that deliver predictable returns have proven to be attractive targets for PE firms. In the second quarter of 2024, private equity firms accounted for over one-third of AEC firm mergers and acquisitions. For M&A deals, the industry has seen an increase in attractiveness with expanded infrastructure spending as a catalyst. However, this interest can also be tied to the lack of innovation that has resulted in an industry ripe for consolidation. M&A orchestrators generate large amounts of profit by streamlining operations, eliminating redundancies, and then stamping out competition. An entire community has been built around this, with AEC Advisors hosting an annual “Private Equity Summit” that brings together CEOs of AEC firms with PE investors.
    Startups
    As an extension of the growing interest from venture capital in the space, there is an upward trend in the AEC space being targeted for disruption by entrepreneurs who see an industry that represents a significant portion of the global GDP. AEC Works, a project of e-verse that catalogs AEC startups and investors, lists nearly 800 startups from around the world, with almost 200 identified as “architecture-focused.” The signal is clear: startups are looking to figure out how to do what you do cheaper, better, or perhaps both.
    Combining this environment with depleted talent pools, a declining share of GDP, and revolutionary technology, it is a correct response to be alarmed. Significant change is inevitable. It is time for architects to see the same opportunities that investors and entrepreneurs see, and learn to navigate within these spaces.

    The Great Opportunity
    Throughout history, new actors have enjoyed a “leap-frog” effect and been able to surpass established incumbents to reshape industries, markets and economies.
    From climate change to pandemic ripple effects, to the housing crisis, to generational shifts in the workforce, there are many forces that directly impact the work of architects and call for innovation. The need for new ways of designing and delivering different components of the built environment is ever-present and will be solved by teams that either include — and might be led by — architects, or those that do not. Most end users will only care if the resulting product is superior.
    This time of tension is indeed a time of great opportunity. Architects who embrace innovation in pursuing new iterations of our dated business models may actually achieve what many of us have dreamed of from the start: to leave a positive mark on the world.
    We think the future of the profession depends on it.
    Top image: Powerhouse Telemark by Snøhetta, Vestfold og Telemark, Norway
    The post Architects, Your Real Competition Isn’t AI — It’s Business Complacency appeared first on Journal.
    #architects #your #real #competition #isnt
    Architects, Your Real Competition Isn’t AI — It’s Business Complacency
    Larry Fabbroni is an architect, strategic advisor, and Chief Innovation Officer for Practice of Architecture. Throughout his career, he has led efforts to reform studio culture and innovate practice. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. In 2017, as leaders in the AIA’s Young Architects Forum, we led the launch of the Practice Innovation Laband hosted a symposium that imagined new architectural practice models. At that time, we already felt that practice innovation was overdue in a profession that has not seen scaled disruption to its business model in over a century. Today, we are confident that there has never been a more critical time for the profession to embrace innovation. Redefining Innovation Henley Hall: Institute for Energy Efficiency by KieranTimberlake, Santa Barbara, California | KieranTimberlake’s research expertise creates value beyond a baseline labor model.  Currently, artificial intelligence dominates strategy conversations, but just as we saw back in 2017, larger patterns prompt calls for innovation. Talent attraction is increasingly challenging, disruptive technology continues to emerge, and actors from outside our industry show growing interest in the space. While incremental innovation has long been a part of the profession, relatively few firms have adopted new practices that create value beyond a baseline labor model. Firms such as KieranTimberlake have shown that research expertise can do this. MASS Design has pioneered a mission-driven approach. BIG has taken on the role of architect-as-developer. Snøhetta houses a product design division. We could continue to list great firms that have pushed the boundaries of practice, but they represent exceptions that have yet to be recognized as new standards. Indeed, the confluence of those factors that led to the original PIL continues to make the case that the time for scaled innovation is now. A Melting Iceberg: Incremental Changes Depleting the Profession Powerhouse Telemark by Snøhetta, Vestfold og Telemark, Norway | Photo by Ivar Kvaal | Snøhetta houses a product design division, innovatively presenting a alternative business model for firms.  One of the dangers of operating in a slow-moving industry is that change is difficult to detect and even more challenging to comprehend. If an iceberg loses 1% of mass per year, it’s tough to take notice, but the end result is catastrophic. This is what is happening to our profession. For newcomers, if it feels like there are increasingly more attractive opportunities elsewhere, that’s because there are. For seasoned professionals, if it feels like it’s become more challenging to maintain the same levels of prosperity, that’s because it has. LessTalent In some ways, the shift towards companies recognizing “talent” as their most excellent resource has bewildered architects: we have always relied on talent. However, the patterns of talent leaving our profession are concerning. We say “feel” because there is no significant data. We spoke to Kendall A. Nicholson, Senior Director of Research at the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture, who confirmed that aggregated data on graduate placement does not exist. So we inquired about what placement looks like at several programs around the country. Omar Khan, Head of the Carnegie Mellon University School of Architecture, informed us that approximately 90% of students pursue a minor to expand their horizons, and that in 2022, nearly one in three graduates entered the tech sector. Khan stated that these opportunities aren’t just student-driven — large innovative companies increasingly seek the value that graduates of architecture schools will provide. This increasing difficulty in capturing the talent that architecture schools are producing results in a shrinking and diluted talent pool. For a profession so reliant on human resources, this presents extreme risk. Pay Gaps In an increasingly expensive world, we are not able to compete for the best talent with emerging industries. It’s easy to understand why a popular career pivot for architects has become UX design. Designing user experience for websites pays significantly better than designing the same for the built environment. According to Glassdoor, 2023 entry-level UX designers earned an average of K, while the AIA salary calculator suggests architecture grads can expect to earn an average of K. The talent we do attract into the profession often loses interest when they experience low pay and long hours, all while most firms lack clear paths and criteria for advancement or compensation increases. A Smaller Piece of the Pie Examining data in isolation, one might conclude that the profession continues to grow; the number of architects has increased substantially over the last century, and this trend has persisted in recent years. The problem with this growth is that the estimated share of the US GDP for Architectural Services has shrunk over time. This is not a manageable number to measure before 1999, when NCARB first aggregated local jurisdictional data. Due to limitations in industry economic data, we’re only showing data since 2011 for the purposes of this article. In that time, the number of architects has grown, the market size for services has grown, but the share those services represent as a portion of the US GDP has declined — by 15% if we use US Census data to almost 30% if we use industry research data. To put it another way, architecture is a stagnant industry with a shrinking share of the economy. It’s challenging to examine this data and emerge feeling confident about the profession, but there is a silver lining. The biggest impediment to innovation for architects is not a lack of talent, but rather the business model. Design thinking has been widely adopted throughout the world as a key component of innovation processes; however, the problem is that we operate in the realm of professional services, which inherently is not well-suited to promoting innovation. Reliance on that formula is causing our iceberg to melt. The Tsunami: The AI Tidal Wave is Here The Rwanda Institute for Conservation Agriculture by MASS Design Group, Rwanda | MASS Design has pioneered a mission-driven approach that creates value beyond a baseline labor model.  As we confront the exodus of talent, it is easy for both firm owners and clients to imagine AI bringing efficiencies and replacing “CAD-monkeys” with machines. However, any firm that wants to operate — and win — as anything more than a low-cost provider will need a strategy to increase value, not just cut costs. AI is merely part of the toolbox required to confront a perfect storm of forces. Jobs will Disappear Goldman Sachs predicts that as much as 37% of our industry tasks will be replaced by AI. Many see this as a pathway to lower costs and increased profits. However, that is short-sighted. Markets will adjust quickly and demand lower costs for services; additional new value will need to be articulated and proven, and this will only happen through innovation. New Jobs will EmergeAI prophets often emphasize that technological innovation has historically led to net employment gains. Previous World Economic Forum estimates predicted losses of up to 85 million existing jobs worldwide, with parallel gains of as many as 97 million new jobs. However, these estimates were revised in the WEF 2023 Economic Outlook, which now anticipates a net loss of 14 million jobs. This stark outlook signals an even greater need for architects to become more innovative. The 2024 RIBA AI Report indicates that 41% of architecture firms were already utilizing AI, though current tools are indeed just the beginning. Marketing, business development and content creation will be standard areas of AI deployment moving forward. Still, revolutionary changes will come in how we learn, not only to use new tools, but also to collaborate with digital agents. How will this happen? We can theorize, but it is not possible to know for sure until it arrives, so we need to have a plan before we can see the tidal wave from land. The Alien Invasion: Outsiders Are Entering Our Orbit VIA 57 West by BIG – Bjarke Ingels Group, New York City, New York | BIG has pioneered a new model for practice by taking on the role of architect-as-developer. For years, we’ve heard cries that “architects gave away the role of master builder.” But how much did architects actually give, and how much was taken by innovative competition? This distinction is critical because the wagons are circling, and the AEC space has become ever more attractive to investors. Venture Capital and Private Equity Investment The numbers are often difficult to parse because architecture can impact so many verticals and does not operate as its own sector in the investment realm; however, the trends suggest a groundswell is underway. A 2023 McKinsey report shows that construction tech deals nearly doubled from 2019 to 2022, growing by 85%. At the same period, the number of deals increased by 30%, indicating that interest continues to grow. An increasing size of deals also suggests a maturity of the market. As interest in infrastructure investments has declined from its high in 2020, and along with real estate, has been blunted by high interest rates, institutional investors continue to see opportunities in the AEC space. Firm Acquisitions AEC firms that deliver predictable returns have proven to be attractive targets for PE firms. In the second quarter of 2024, private equity firms accounted for over one-third of AEC firm mergers and acquisitions. For M&A deals, the industry has seen an increase in attractiveness with expanded infrastructure spending as a catalyst. However, this interest can also be tied to the lack of innovation that has resulted in an industry ripe for consolidation. M&A orchestrators generate large amounts of profit by streamlining operations, eliminating redundancies, and then stamping out competition. An entire community has been built around this, with AEC Advisors hosting an annual “Private Equity Summit” that brings together CEOs of AEC firms with PE investors. Startups As an extension of the growing interest from venture capital in the space, there is an upward trend in the AEC space being targeted for disruption by entrepreneurs who see an industry that represents a significant portion of the global GDP. AEC Works, a project of e-verse that catalogs AEC startups and investors, lists nearly 800 startups from around the world, with almost 200 identified as “architecture-focused.” The signal is clear: startups are looking to figure out how to do what you do cheaper, better, or perhaps both. Combining this environment with depleted talent pools, a declining share of GDP, and revolutionary technology, it is a correct response to be alarmed. Significant change is inevitable. It is time for architects to see the same opportunities that investors and entrepreneurs see, and learn to navigate within these spaces. The Great Opportunity Throughout history, new actors have enjoyed a “leap-frog” effect and been able to surpass established incumbents to reshape industries, markets and economies. From climate change to pandemic ripple effects, to the housing crisis, to generational shifts in the workforce, there are many forces that directly impact the work of architects and call for innovation. The need for new ways of designing and delivering different components of the built environment is ever-present and will be solved by teams that either include — and might be led by — architects, or those that do not. Most end users will only care if the resulting product is superior. This time of tension is indeed a time of great opportunity. Architects who embrace innovation in pursuing new iterations of our dated business models may actually achieve what many of us have dreamed of from the start: to leave a positive mark on the world. We think the future of the profession depends on it. Top image: Powerhouse Telemark by Snøhetta, Vestfold og Telemark, Norway The post Architects, Your Real Competition Isn’t AI — It’s Business Complacency appeared first on Journal. #architects #your #real #competition #isnt
    ARCHITIZER.COM
    Architects, Your Real Competition Isn’t AI — It’s Business Complacency
    Larry Fabbroni is an architect, strategic advisor, and Chief Innovation Officer for Practice of Architecture. Throughout his career, he has led efforts to reform studio culture and innovate practice. He earned his MBA from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. In 2017, as leaders in the AIA’s Young Architects Forum (YAF), we led the launch of the Practice Innovation Lab (PIL) and hosted a symposium that imagined new architectural practice models. At that time, we already felt that practice innovation was overdue in a profession that has not seen scaled disruption to its business model in over a century. Today, we are confident that there has never been a more critical time for the profession to embrace innovation. Redefining Innovation Henley Hall: Institute for Energy Efficiency by KieranTimberlake, Santa Barbara, California | KieranTimberlake’s research expertise creates value beyond a baseline labor model.  Currently, artificial intelligence dominates strategy conversations, but just as we saw back in 2017, larger patterns prompt calls for innovation. Talent attraction is increasingly challenging, disruptive technology continues to emerge, and actors from outside our industry show growing interest in the space. While incremental innovation has long been a part of the profession, relatively few firms have adopted new practices that create value beyond a baseline labor model. Firms such as KieranTimberlake have shown that research expertise can do this. MASS Design has pioneered a mission-driven approach. BIG has taken on the role of architect-as-developer. Snøhetta houses a product design division. We could continue to list great firms that have pushed the boundaries of practice, but they represent exceptions that have yet to be recognized as new standards. Indeed, the confluence of those factors that led to the original PIL continues to make the case that the time for scaled innovation is now. A Melting Iceberg: Incremental Changes Depleting the Profession Powerhouse Telemark by Snøhetta, Vestfold og Telemark, Norway | Photo by Ivar Kvaal | Snøhetta houses a product design division, innovatively presenting a alternative business model for firms.  One of the dangers of operating in a slow-moving industry is that change is difficult to detect and even more challenging to comprehend. If an iceberg loses 1% of mass per year, it’s tough to take notice, but the end result is catastrophic. This is what is happening to our profession. For newcomers, if it feels like there are increasingly more attractive opportunities elsewhere, that’s because there are. For seasoned professionals, if it feels like it’s become more challenging to maintain the same levels of prosperity, that’s because it has. Less(er) Talent In some ways, the shift towards companies recognizing “talent” as their most excellent resource has bewildered architects: we have always relied on talent. However, the patterns of talent leaving our profession are concerning. We say “feel” because there is no significant data. We spoke to Kendall A. Nicholson, Senior Director of Research at the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture (ACSA), who confirmed that aggregated data on graduate placement does not exist. So we inquired about what placement looks like at several programs around the country. Omar Khan, Head of the Carnegie Mellon University School of Architecture, informed us that approximately 90% of students pursue a minor to expand their horizons, and that in 2022, nearly one in three graduates entered the tech sector. Khan stated that these opportunities aren’t just student-driven — large innovative companies increasingly seek the value that graduates of architecture schools will provide. This increasing difficulty in capturing the talent that architecture schools are producing results in a shrinking and diluted talent pool. For a profession so reliant on human resources, this presents extreme risk. Pay Gaps In an increasingly expensive world, we are not able to compete for the best talent with emerging industries. It’s easy to understand why a popular career pivot for architects has become UX design. Designing user experience for websites pays significantly better than designing the same for the built environment. According to Glassdoor, 2023 entry-level UX designers earned an average of $78K, while the AIA salary calculator suggests architecture grads can expect to earn an average of $59 K. The talent we do attract into the profession often loses interest when they experience low pay and long hours, all while most firms lack clear paths and criteria for advancement or compensation increases. A Smaller Piece of the Pie Examining data in isolation, one might conclude that the profession continues to grow; the number of architects has increased substantially over the last century, and this trend has persisted in recent years. The problem with this growth is that the estimated share of the US GDP for Architectural Services has shrunk over time. This is not a manageable number to measure before 1999, when NCARB first aggregated local jurisdictional data. Due to limitations in industry economic data, we’re only showing data since 2011 for the purposes of this article. In that time, the number of architects has grown, the market size for services has grown, but the share those services represent as a portion of the US GDP has declined — by 15% if we use US Census data to almost 30% if we use industry research data (we used IbisWorld.com, however we found data that suggested a worse and others that offered a slightly better picture). To put it another way, architecture is a stagnant industry with a shrinking share of the economy. It’s challenging to examine this data and emerge feeling confident about the profession, but there is a silver lining. The biggest impediment to innovation for architects is not a lack of talent, but rather the business model. Design thinking has been widely adopted throughout the world as a key component of innovation processes; however, the problem is that we operate in the realm of professional services, which inherently is not well-suited to promoting innovation. Reliance on that formula is causing our iceberg to melt. The Tsunami: The AI Tidal Wave is Here The Rwanda Institute for Conservation Agriculture by MASS Design Group, Rwanda | MASS Design has pioneered a mission-driven approach that creates value beyond a baseline labor model.  As we confront the exodus of talent, it is easy for both firm owners and clients to imagine AI bringing efficiencies and replacing “CAD-monkeys” with machines. However, any firm that wants to operate — and win — as anything more than a low-cost provider will need a strategy to increase value, not just cut costs. AI is merely part of the toolbox required to confront a perfect storm of forces. Jobs will Disappear Goldman Sachs predicts that as much as 37% of our industry tasks will be replaced by AI. Many see this as a pathway to lower costs and increased profits. However, that is short-sighted. Markets will adjust quickly and demand lower costs for services; additional new value will need to be articulated and proven, and this will only happen through innovation. New Jobs will Emerge (but fewer of them) AI prophets often emphasize that technological innovation has historically led to net employment gains. Previous World Economic Forum estimates predicted losses of up to 85 million existing jobs worldwide, with parallel gains of as many as 97 million new jobs. However, these estimates were revised in the WEF 2023 Economic Outlook, which now anticipates a net loss of 14 million jobs. This stark outlook signals an even greater need for architects to become more innovative. The 2024 RIBA AI Report indicates that 41% of architecture firms were already utilizing AI, though current tools are indeed just the beginning. Marketing, business development and content creation will be standard areas of AI deployment moving forward. Still, revolutionary changes will come in how we learn, not only to use new tools, but also to collaborate with digital agents. How will this happen? We can theorize, but it is not possible to know for sure until it arrives, so we need to have a plan before we can see the tidal wave from land. The Alien Invasion: Outsiders Are Entering Our Orbit VIA 57 West by BIG – Bjarke Ingels Group, New York City, New York | BIG has pioneered a new model for practice by taking on the role of architect-as-developer. For years, we’ve heard cries that “architects gave away the role of master builder.” But how much did architects actually give, and how much was taken by innovative competition? This distinction is critical because the wagons are circling, and the AEC space has become ever more attractive to investors. Venture Capital and Private Equity Investment The numbers are often difficult to parse because architecture can impact so many verticals and does not operate as its own sector in the investment realm; however, the trends suggest a groundswell is underway. A 2023 McKinsey report shows that construction tech deals nearly doubled from 2019 to 2022, growing by 85%. At the same period, the number of deals increased by 30%, indicating that interest continues to grow. An increasing size of deals also suggests a maturity of the market. As interest in infrastructure investments has declined from its high in 2020, and along with real estate, has been blunted by high interest rates, institutional investors continue to see opportunities in the AEC space. Firm Acquisitions AEC firms that deliver predictable returns have proven to be attractive targets for PE firms. In the second quarter of 2024, private equity firms accounted for over one-third of AEC firm mergers and acquisitions. For M&A deals, the industry has seen an increase in attractiveness with expanded infrastructure spending as a catalyst. However, this interest can also be tied to the lack of innovation that has resulted in an industry ripe for consolidation. M&A orchestrators generate large amounts of profit by streamlining operations, eliminating redundancies, and then stamping out competition. An entire community has been built around this, with AEC Advisors hosting an annual “Private Equity Summit” that brings together CEOs of AEC firms with PE investors. Startups As an extension of the growing interest from venture capital in the space, there is an upward trend in the AEC space being targeted for disruption by entrepreneurs who see an industry that represents a significant portion of the global GDP. AEC Works, a project of e-verse that catalogs AEC startups and investors, lists nearly 800 startups from around the world, with almost 200 identified as “architecture-focused.” The signal is clear: startups are looking to figure out how to do what you do cheaper, better, or perhaps both. Combining this environment with depleted talent pools, a declining share of GDP, and revolutionary technology, it is a correct response to be alarmed. Significant change is inevitable. It is time for architects to see the same opportunities that investors and entrepreneurs see, and learn to navigate within these spaces. The Great Opportunity Throughout history, new actors have enjoyed a “leap-frog” effect and been able to surpass established incumbents to reshape industries, markets and economies. From climate change to pandemic ripple effects, to the housing crisis, to generational shifts in the workforce, there are many forces that directly impact the work of architects and call for innovation. The need for new ways of designing and delivering different components of the built environment is ever-present and will be solved by teams that either include — and might be led by — architects, or those that do not. Most end users will only care if the resulting product is superior. This time of tension is indeed a time of great opportunity. Architects who embrace innovation in pursuing new iterations of our dated business models may actually achieve what many of us have dreamed of from the start: to leave a positive mark on the world. We think the future of the profession depends on it. Top image: Powerhouse Telemark by Snøhetta, Vestfold og Telemark, Norway The post Architects, Your Real Competition Isn’t AI — It’s Business Complacency appeared first on Journal.
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  • Texas is headed for a drought—but lawmakers won’t do the one thing necessary to save its water supply

    LUBBOCK — Every winter, after the sea of cotton has been harvested in the South Plains and the ground looks barren, technicians with the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District check the water levels in nearly 75,000 wells across 16 counties.

    For years, their measurements have shown what farmers and water conservationists fear most—the Ogallala Aquifer, an underground water source that’s the lifeblood of the South Plains agriculture industry, is running dry.

    That’s because of a century-old law called the rule of capture.

    The rule is simple: If you own the land above an aquifer in Texas, the water underneath is yours. You can use as much as you want, as long as it’s not wasted or taken maliciously. The same applies to your neighbor. If they happen to use more water than you, then that’s just bad luck.

    To put it another way, landowners can mostly pump as much water as they choose without facing liability to surrounding landowners whose wells might be depleted as a result.

    Following the Dust Bowl—and to stave off catastrophe—state lawmakers created groundwater conservation districts in 1949 to protect what water is left. But their power to restrict landowners is limited.

    “The mission is to save as much water possible for as long as possible, with as little impact on private property rights as possible,” said Jason Coleman, manager for the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District. “How do you do that? It’s a difficult task.”

    A 1953 map of the wells in Lubbock County hangs in the office of the groundwater district.Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. Texas does not have enough water to meet demand if the state is stricken with a historic drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board, the state agency that manages Texas’ water supply.

    Lawmakers want to invest in every corner to save the state’s water. This week, they reached a historic billion deal on water projects.

    High Plains Underground Water District General Manager Jason Coleman stands in the district’s meeting room on May 21 in Lubbock.But no one wants to touch the rule of capture. In a state known for rugged individualism, politically speaking, reforming the law is tantamount to stripping away freedoms.

    “There probably are opportunities to vest groundwater districts with additional authority,” said Amy Hardberger, director for the Texas Tech University Center for Water Law and Policy. “I don’t think the political climate is going to do that.”

    State Sen. Charles Perry, a Lubbock Republican, and Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican, led the effort on water in Austin this year. Neither responded to requests for comment.

    Carlos Rubinstein, a water expert with consulting firm RSAH2O and a former chairman of the water development board, said the rule has been relied upon so long that it would be near impossible to undo the law.

    “I think it’s better to spend time working within the rules,” Rubinstein said. “And respect the rule of capture, yet also recognize that, in and of itself, it causes problems.”

    Even though groundwater districts were created to regulate groundwater, the law effectively stops them from doing so, or they risk major lawsuits. The state water plan, which spells out how the state’s water is to be used, acknowledges the shortfall. Groundwater availability is expected to decline by 25% by 2070, mostly due to reduced supply in the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. Together, the aquifers stretch across West Texas and up through the Panhandle.

    By itself, the Ogallala has an estimated three trillion gallons of water. Though the overwhelming majority in Texas is used by farmers. It’s expected to face a 50% decline by 2070.

    Groundwater is 54% of the state’s total water supply and is the state’s most vulnerable natural resource. It’s created by rainfall and other precipitation, and seeps into the ground. Like surface water, groundwater is heavily affected by ongoing droughts and prolonged heat waves. However, the state has more say in regulating surface water than it does groundwater. Surface water laws have provisions that cut supply to newer users in a drought and prohibit transferring surface water outside of basins.

    Historically, groundwater has been used by agriculture in the High Plains. However, as surface water evaporates at a quicker clip, cities and businesses are increasingly interested in tapping the underground resource. As Texas’ population continues to grow and surface water declines, groundwater will be the prize in future fights for water.

    In many ways, the damage is done in the High Plains, a region that spans from the top of the Panhandle down past Lubbock. The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath the region, and it’s faced depletion to the point of no return, according to experts. Simply put: The Ogallala is not refilling to keep up with demand.

    “It’s a creeping disaster,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment. “It isn’t like you wake up tomorrow and nobody can pump anymore. It’s just happening slowly, every year.”Groundwater districts and the law

    The High Plains Water District was the first groundwater district created in Texas.

    Over a protracted multi-year fight, the Legislature created these new local government bodies in 1949, with voter approval, enshrining the new stewards of groundwater into the state Constitution.

    If the lawmakers hoped to embolden local officials to manage the troves of water under the soil, they failed. There are areas with groundwater that don’t have conservation districts. Each groundwater districts has different powers. In practice, most water districts permit wells and make decisions on spacing and location to meet the needs of the property owner.

    The one thing all groundwater districts have in common: They stop short of telling landowners they can’t pump water.

    In the seven decades since groundwater districts were created, a series of lawsuits have effectively strangled groundwater districts. Even as water levels decline from use and drought, districts still get regular requests for new wells. They won’t say no out of fear of litigation.

    The field technician coverage area is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office at the High Plains Underground Water District. Bibbs is a permit assistant for the district.“You have a host of different decisions to make as it pertains to management of groundwater,” Coleman said. “That list has grown over the years.”

    The possibility of lawsuits makes groundwater districts hesitant to regulate usage or put limitations on new well permits. Groundwater districts have to defend themselves in lawsuits, and most lack the resources to do so.

    A well spacing guide is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office.“The law works against us in that way,” Hardberger, with Texas Tech University, said. “It means one large tool in our toolbox, regulation, is limited.”

    The most recent example is a lawsuit between the Braggs Farm and the Edwards Aquifer Authority. The farm requested permits for two pecan orchards in Medina County, outside San Antonio. The authority granted only one and limited how much water could be used based on state law.

    It wasn’t an arbitrary decision. The authority said it followed the statute set by the Legislature to determine the permit.

    “That’s all they were guaranteed,” said Gregory Ellis, the first general manager of the authority, referring to the water available to the farm.

    The Braggs family filed a takings lawsuit against the authority. This kind of claim can be filed when any level of government—including groundwater districts—takes private property for public use without paying for the owner’s losses.

    Braggs won. It is the only successful water-related takings claim in Texas, and it made groundwater laws murkier. It cost the authority million.

    “I think it should have been paid by the state Legislature,” Ellis said. “They’re the ones who designed that permitting system. But that didn’t happen.”

    An appeals court upheld the ruling in 2013, and the Texas Supreme Court denied petitions to consider appeals. However, the state’s supreme court has previously suggested the Legislature could enhance the powers of the groundwater districts and regulate groundwater like surface water, just as many other states have done.

    While the laws are complicated, Ellis said the fundamental rule of capture has benefits. It has saved Texas’ legal system from a flurry of lawsuits between well owners.

    “If they had said ‘Yes, you can sue your neighbor for damaging your well,’ where does it stop?” Ellis asked. “Everybody sues everybody.”

    Coleman, the High Plains district’s manager, said some people want groundwater districts to have more power, while others think they have too much. Well owners want restrictions for others, but not on them, he said.

    “You’re charged as a district with trying to apply things uniformly and fairly,” Coleman said.

    Can’t reverse the past

    Two tractors were dropping seeds around Walt Hagood’s farm as he turned on his irrigation system for the first time this year. He didn’t plan on using much water. It’s too precious.

    The cotton farm stretches across 2,350 acres on the outskirts of Wolfforth, a town 12 miles southwest of Lubbock. Hagood irrigates about 80 acres of land, and prays that rain takes care of the rest.

    Walt Hagood drives across his farm on May 12, in Wolfforth. Hagood utilizes “dry farming,” a technique that relies on natural rainfall.“We used to have a lot of irrigated land with adequate water to make a crop,” Hagood said. “We don’t have that anymore.”

    The High Plains is home to cotton and cattle, multi-billion-dollar agricultural industries. The success is in large part due to the Ogallala. Since its discovery, the aquifer has helped farms around the region spring up through irrigation, a way for farmers to water their crops instead of waiting for rain that may not come. But as water in the aquifer declines, there are growing concerns that there won’t be enough water to support agriculture in the future.

    At the peak of irrigation development, more than 8.5 million acres were irrigated in Texas. About 65% of that was in the High Plains. In the decades since the irrigation boom, High Plains farmers have resorted to methods that might save water and keep their livelihoods afloat. They’ve changed their irrigation systems so water is used more efficiently. They grow cover crops so their soil is more likely to soak up rainwater. Some use apps to see where water is needed so it’s not wasted.

    A furrow irrigation is seen at Walt Hagood’s cotton farm.Farmers who have not changed their irrigation systems might not have a choice in the near future. It can take a week to pump an inch of water in some areas from the aquifer because of how little water is left. As conditions change underground, they are forced to drill deeper for water. That causes additional problems. Calcium can build up, and the water is of poorer quality. And when the water is used to spray crops through a pivot irrigation system, it’s more of a humidifier as water quickly evaporates in the heat.

    According to the groundwater district’s most recent management plan, 2 million acres in the district use groundwater for irrigation. About 95% of water from the Ogallala is used for irrigated agriculture. The plan states that the irrigated farms “afford economic stability to the area and support a number of other industries.”

    The state water plan shows groundwater supply is expected to decline, and drought won’t be the only factor causing a shortage. Demand for municipal use outweighs irrigation use, reflecting the state’s future growth. In Region O, which is the South Plains, water for irrigation declines by 2070 while demand for municipal use rises because of population growth in the region.

    Coleman, with the High Plains groundwater district, often thinks about how the aquifer will hold up with future growth. There are some factors at play with water planning that are nearly impossible to predict and account for, Coleman said. Declining surface water could make groundwater a source for municipalities that didn’t depend on it before. Regions known for having big, open patches of land, like the High Plains, could be attractive to incoming businesses. People could move to the country and want to drill a well, with no understanding of water availability.

    The state will continue to grow, Coleman said, and all the incoming businesses and industries will undoubtedly need water.

    “We could say ‘Well, it’s no one’s fault. We didn’t know that factory would need 20,000 acre-feet of water a year,” Coleman said. “It’s not happening right now, but what’s around the corner?”

    Coleman said this puts agriculture in a tenuous position. The region is full of small towns that depend on agriculture and have supporting businesses, like cotton gins, equipment and feed stores, and pesticide and fertilizer sprayers. This puts pressure on the High Plains water district, along with the two regional water planning groups in the region, to keep agriculture alive.

    “Districts are not trying to reduce pumping down to a sustainable level,” said Mace with the Meadows Foundation. “And I don’t fault them for that, because doing that is economic devastation in a region with farmers.”

    Hagood, the cotton farmer, doesn’t think reforming groundwater rights is the way to solve it. What’s done is done, he said.

    “Our U.S. Constitution protects our private property rights, and that’s what this is all about,” Hagood said. “Any time we have a regulation and people are given more authority, it doesn’t work out right for everybody.”

    Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply.What can be done

    The state water plan recommends irrigation conservation as a strategy. It’s also the least costly water management method.

    But that strategy is fraught. Farmers need to irrigate in times of drought, and telling them to stop can draw criticism.

    In Eastern New Mexico, the Ogallala Land and Water Conservancy, a nonprofit organization, has been retiring irrigation wells. Landowners keep their water rights, and the organization pays them to stop irrigating their farms. Landowners get paid every year as part of the voluntary agreement, and they can end it at any point.

    Ladona Clayton, executive director of the organization, said they have been criticized, with their efforts being called a “war” and “land grab.” They also get pushback on why the responsibility falls on farmers. She said it’s because of how much water is used for irrigation. They have to be aggressive in their approach, she said. The aquifer supplies water to the Cannon Air Force Base.

    “We don’t want them to stop agricultural production,” Clayton said. “But for me to say it will be the same level that irrigation can support would be untrue.”

    There is another possible lifeline that people in the High Plains are eyeing as a solution: the Dockum Aquifer. It’s a minor aquifer that underlies part of the Ogallala, so it would be accessible to farmers and ranchers in the region. The High Plains Water District also oversees this aquifer.

    If it seems too good to be true—that the most irrigated part of Texas would just so happen to have another abundant supply of water flowing underneath—it’s because there’s a catch. The Dockum is full of extremely salty brackish water. Some counties can use the water for irrigation and drinking water without treatment, but it’s unusable in others. According to the groundwater district, a test well in Lubbock County pulled up water that was as salty as seawater.

    Rubinstein, the former water development board chairman, said there are pockets of brackish groundwater in Texas that haven’t been tapped yet. It would be enough to meet the needs on the horizon, but it would also be very expensive to obtain and use. A landowner would have to go deeper to get it, then pump the water over a longer distance.

    “That costs money, and then you have to treat it on top of that,” Rubinstein said. “But, it is water.”

    Landowners have expressed interest in using desalination, a treatment method to lower dissolved salt levels. Desalination of produced and brackish water is one of the ideas that was being floated around at the Legislature this year, along with building a pipeline to move water across the state. Hagood, the farmer, is skeptical. He thinks whatever water they move could get used up before it makes it all the way to West Texas.

    There is always brackish groundwater. Another aquifer brings the chance of history repeating—if the Dockum aquifer is treated so its water is usable, will people drain it, too?

    Hagood said there would have to be limits.

    Disclosure: Edwards Aquifer Authority and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

    This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.
    #texas #headed #droughtbut #lawmakers #wont
    Texas is headed for a drought—but lawmakers won’t do the one thing necessary to save its water supply
    LUBBOCK — Every winter, after the sea of cotton has been harvested in the South Plains and the ground looks barren, technicians with the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District check the water levels in nearly 75,000 wells across 16 counties. For years, their measurements have shown what farmers and water conservationists fear most—the Ogallala Aquifer, an underground water source that’s the lifeblood of the South Plains agriculture industry, is running dry. That’s because of a century-old law called the rule of capture. The rule is simple: If you own the land above an aquifer in Texas, the water underneath is yours. You can use as much as you want, as long as it’s not wasted or taken maliciously. The same applies to your neighbor. If they happen to use more water than you, then that’s just bad luck. To put it another way, landowners can mostly pump as much water as they choose without facing liability to surrounding landowners whose wells might be depleted as a result. Following the Dust Bowl—and to stave off catastrophe—state lawmakers created groundwater conservation districts in 1949 to protect what water is left. But their power to restrict landowners is limited. “The mission is to save as much water possible for as long as possible, with as little impact on private property rights as possible,” said Jason Coleman, manager for the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District. “How do you do that? It’s a difficult task.” A 1953 map of the wells in Lubbock County hangs in the office of the groundwater district.Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. Texas does not have enough water to meet demand if the state is stricken with a historic drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board, the state agency that manages Texas’ water supply. Lawmakers want to invest in every corner to save the state’s water. This week, they reached a historic billion deal on water projects. High Plains Underground Water District General Manager Jason Coleman stands in the district’s meeting room on May 21 in Lubbock.But no one wants to touch the rule of capture. In a state known for rugged individualism, politically speaking, reforming the law is tantamount to stripping away freedoms. “There probably are opportunities to vest groundwater districts with additional authority,” said Amy Hardberger, director for the Texas Tech University Center for Water Law and Policy. “I don’t think the political climate is going to do that.” State Sen. Charles Perry, a Lubbock Republican, and Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican, led the effort on water in Austin this year. Neither responded to requests for comment. Carlos Rubinstein, a water expert with consulting firm RSAH2O and a former chairman of the water development board, said the rule has been relied upon so long that it would be near impossible to undo the law. “I think it’s better to spend time working within the rules,” Rubinstein said. “And respect the rule of capture, yet also recognize that, in and of itself, it causes problems.” Even though groundwater districts were created to regulate groundwater, the law effectively stops them from doing so, or they risk major lawsuits. The state water plan, which spells out how the state’s water is to be used, acknowledges the shortfall. Groundwater availability is expected to decline by 25% by 2070, mostly due to reduced supply in the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. Together, the aquifers stretch across West Texas and up through the Panhandle. By itself, the Ogallala has an estimated three trillion gallons of water. Though the overwhelming majority in Texas is used by farmers. It’s expected to face a 50% decline by 2070. Groundwater is 54% of the state’s total water supply and is the state’s most vulnerable natural resource. It’s created by rainfall and other precipitation, and seeps into the ground. Like surface water, groundwater is heavily affected by ongoing droughts and prolonged heat waves. However, the state has more say in regulating surface water than it does groundwater. Surface water laws have provisions that cut supply to newer users in a drought and prohibit transferring surface water outside of basins. Historically, groundwater has been used by agriculture in the High Plains. However, as surface water evaporates at a quicker clip, cities and businesses are increasingly interested in tapping the underground resource. As Texas’ population continues to grow and surface water declines, groundwater will be the prize in future fights for water. In many ways, the damage is done in the High Plains, a region that spans from the top of the Panhandle down past Lubbock. The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath the region, and it’s faced depletion to the point of no return, according to experts. Simply put: The Ogallala is not refilling to keep up with demand. “It’s a creeping disaster,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment. “It isn’t like you wake up tomorrow and nobody can pump anymore. It’s just happening slowly, every year.”Groundwater districts and the law The High Plains Water District was the first groundwater district created in Texas. Over a protracted multi-year fight, the Legislature created these new local government bodies in 1949, with voter approval, enshrining the new stewards of groundwater into the state Constitution. If the lawmakers hoped to embolden local officials to manage the troves of water under the soil, they failed. There are areas with groundwater that don’t have conservation districts. Each groundwater districts has different powers. In practice, most water districts permit wells and make decisions on spacing and location to meet the needs of the property owner. The one thing all groundwater districts have in common: They stop short of telling landowners they can’t pump water. In the seven decades since groundwater districts were created, a series of lawsuits have effectively strangled groundwater districts. Even as water levels decline from use and drought, districts still get regular requests for new wells. They won’t say no out of fear of litigation. The field technician coverage area is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office at the High Plains Underground Water District. Bibbs is a permit assistant for the district.“You have a host of different decisions to make as it pertains to management of groundwater,” Coleman said. “That list has grown over the years.” The possibility of lawsuits makes groundwater districts hesitant to regulate usage or put limitations on new well permits. Groundwater districts have to defend themselves in lawsuits, and most lack the resources to do so. A well spacing guide is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office.“The law works against us in that way,” Hardberger, with Texas Tech University, said. “It means one large tool in our toolbox, regulation, is limited.” The most recent example is a lawsuit between the Braggs Farm and the Edwards Aquifer Authority. The farm requested permits for two pecan orchards in Medina County, outside San Antonio. The authority granted only one and limited how much water could be used based on state law. It wasn’t an arbitrary decision. The authority said it followed the statute set by the Legislature to determine the permit. “That’s all they were guaranteed,” said Gregory Ellis, the first general manager of the authority, referring to the water available to the farm. The Braggs family filed a takings lawsuit against the authority. This kind of claim can be filed when any level of government—including groundwater districts—takes private property for public use without paying for the owner’s losses. Braggs won. It is the only successful water-related takings claim in Texas, and it made groundwater laws murkier. It cost the authority million. “I think it should have been paid by the state Legislature,” Ellis said. “They’re the ones who designed that permitting system. But that didn’t happen.” An appeals court upheld the ruling in 2013, and the Texas Supreme Court denied petitions to consider appeals. However, the state’s supreme court has previously suggested the Legislature could enhance the powers of the groundwater districts and regulate groundwater like surface water, just as many other states have done. While the laws are complicated, Ellis said the fundamental rule of capture has benefits. It has saved Texas’ legal system from a flurry of lawsuits between well owners. “If they had said ‘Yes, you can sue your neighbor for damaging your well,’ where does it stop?” Ellis asked. “Everybody sues everybody.” Coleman, the High Plains district’s manager, said some people want groundwater districts to have more power, while others think they have too much. Well owners want restrictions for others, but not on them, he said. “You’re charged as a district with trying to apply things uniformly and fairly,” Coleman said. Can’t reverse the past Two tractors were dropping seeds around Walt Hagood’s farm as he turned on his irrigation system for the first time this year. He didn’t plan on using much water. It’s too precious. The cotton farm stretches across 2,350 acres on the outskirts of Wolfforth, a town 12 miles southwest of Lubbock. Hagood irrigates about 80 acres of land, and prays that rain takes care of the rest. Walt Hagood drives across his farm on May 12, in Wolfforth. Hagood utilizes “dry farming,” a technique that relies on natural rainfall.“We used to have a lot of irrigated land with adequate water to make a crop,” Hagood said. “We don’t have that anymore.” The High Plains is home to cotton and cattle, multi-billion-dollar agricultural industries. The success is in large part due to the Ogallala. Since its discovery, the aquifer has helped farms around the region spring up through irrigation, a way for farmers to water their crops instead of waiting for rain that may not come. But as water in the aquifer declines, there are growing concerns that there won’t be enough water to support agriculture in the future. At the peak of irrigation development, more than 8.5 million acres were irrigated in Texas. About 65% of that was in the High Plains. In the decades since the irrigation boom, High Plains farmers have resorted to methods that might save water and keep their livelihoods afloat. They’ve changed their irrigation systems so water is used more efficiently. They grow cover crops so their soil is more likely to soak up rainwater. Some use apps to see where water is needed so it’s not wasted. A furrow irrigation is seen at Walt Hagood’s cotton farm.Farmers who have not changed their irrigation systems might not have a choice in the near future. It can take a week to pump an inch of water in some areas from the aquifer because of how little water is left. As conditions change underground, they are forced to drill deeper for water. That causes additional problems. Calcium can build up, and the water is of poorer quality. And when the water is used to spray crops through a pivot irrigation system, it’s more of a humidifier as water quickly evaporates in the heat. According to the groundwater district’s most recent management plan, 2 million acres in the district use groundwater for irrigation. About 95% of water from the Ogallala is used for irrigated agriculture. The plan states that the irrigated farms “afford economic stability to the area and support a number of other industries.” The state water plan shows groundwater supply is expected to decline, and drought won’t be the only factor causing a shortage. Demand for municipal use outweighs irrigation use, reflecting the state’s future growth. In Region O, which is the South Plains, water for irrigation declines by 2070 while demand for municipal use rises because of population growth in the region. Coleman, with the High Plains groundwater district, often thinks about how the aquifer will hold up with future growth. There are some factors at play with water planning that are nearly impossible to predict and account for, Coleman said. Declining surface water could make groundwater a source for municipalities that didn’t depend on it before. Regions known for having big, open patches of land, like the High Plains, could be attractive to incoming businesses. People could move to the country and want to drill a well, with no understanding of water availability. The state will continue to grow, Coleman said, and all the incoming businesses and industries will undoubtedly need water. “We could say ‘Well, it’s no one’s fault. We didn’t know that factory would need 20,000 acre-feet of water a year,” Coleman said. “It’s not happening right now, but what’s around the corner?” Coleman said this puts agriculture in a tenuous position. The region is full of small towns that depend on agriculture and have supporting businesses, like cotton gins, equipment and feed stores, and pesticide and fertilizer sprayers. This puts pressure on the High Plains water district, along with the two regional water planning groups in the region, to keep agriculture alive. “Districts are not trying to reduce pumping down to a sustainable level,” said Mace with the Meadows Foundation. “And I don’t fault them for that, because doing that is economic devastation in a region with farmers.” Hagood, the cotton farmer, doesn’t think reforming groundwater rights is the way to solve it. What’s done is done, he said. “Our U.S. Constitution protects our private property rights, and that’s what this is all about,” Hagood said. “Any time we have a regulation and people are given more authority, it doesn’t work out right for everybody.” Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply.What can be done The state water plan recommends irrigation conservation as a strategy. It’s also the least costly water management method. But that strategy is fraught. Farmers need to irrigate in times of drought, and telling them to stop can draw criticism. In Eastern New Mexico, the Ogallala Land and Water Conservancy, a nonprofit organization, has been retiring irrigation wells. Landowners keep their water rights, and the organization pays them to stop irrigating their farms. Landowners get paid every year as part of the voluntary agreement, and they can end it at any point. Ladona Clayton, executive director of the organization, said they have been criticized, with their efforts being called a “war” and “land grab.” They also get pushback on why the responsibility falls on farmers. She said it’s because of how much water is used for irrigation. They have to be aggressive in their approach, she said. The aquifer supplies water to the Cannon Air Force Base. “We don’t want them to stop agricultural production,” Clayton said. “But for me to say it will be the same level that irrigation can support would be untrue.” There is another possible lifeline that people in the High Plains are eyeing as a solution: the Dockum Aquifer. It’s a minor aquifer that underlies part of the Ogallala, so it would be accessible to farmers and ranchers in the region. The High Plains Water District also oversees this aquifer. If it seems too good to be true—that the most irrigated part of Texas would just so happen to have another abundant supply of water flowing underneath—it’s because there’s a catch. The Dockum is full of extremely salty brackish water. Some counties can use the water for irrigation and drinking water without treatment, but it’s unusable in others. According to the groundwater district, a test well in Lubbock County pulled up water that was as salty as seawater. Rubinstein, the former water development board chairman, said there are pockets of brackish groundwater in Texas that haven’t been tapped yet. It would be enough to meet the needs on the horizon, but it would also be very expensive to obtain and use. A landowner would have to go deeper to get it, then pump the water over a longer distance. “That costs money, and then you have to treat it on top of that,” Rubinstein said. “But, it is water.” Landowners have expressed interest in using desalination, a treatment method to lower dissolved salt levels. Desalination of produced and brackish water is one of the ideas that was being floated around at the Legislature this year, along with building a pipeline to move water across the state. Hagood, the farmer, is skeptical. He thinks whatever water they move could get used up before it makes it all the way to West Texas. There is always brackish groundwater. Another aquifer brings the chance of history repeating—if the Dockum aquifer is treated so its water is usable, will people drain it, too? Hagood said there would have to be limits. Disclosure: Edwards Aquifer Authority and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here. This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org. #texas #headed #droughtbut #lawmakers #wont
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    Texas is headed for a drought—but lawmakers won’t do the one thing necessary to save its water supply
    LUBBOCK — Every winter, after the sea of cotton has been harvested in the South Plains and the ground looks barren, technicians with the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District check the water levels in nearly 75,000 wells across 16 counties. For years, their measurements have shown what farmers and water conservationists fear most—the Ogallala Aquifer, an underground water source that’s the lifeblood of the South Plains agriculture industry, is running dry. That’s because of a century-old law called the rule of capture. The rule is simple: If you own the land above an aquifer in Texas, the water underneath is yours. You can use as much as you want, as long as it’s not wasted or taken maliciously. The same applies to your neighbor. If they happen to use more water than you, then that’s just bad luck. To put it another way, landowners can mostly pump as much water as they choose without facing liability to surrounding landowners whose wells might be depleted as a result. Following the Dust Bowl—and to stave off catastrophe—state lawmakers created groundwater conservation districts in 1949 to protect what water is left. But their power to restrict landowners is limited. “The mission is to save as much water possible for as long as possible, with as little impact on private property rights as possible,” said Jason Coleman, manager for the High Plains Underground Water Conservation District. “How do you do that? It’s a difficult task.” A 1953 map of the wells in Lubbock County hangs in the office of the groundwater district. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. Texas does not have enough water to meet demand if the state is stricken with a historic drought, according to the Texas Water Development Board, the state agency that manages Texas’ water supply. Lawmakers want to invest in every corner to save the state’s water. This week, they reached a historic $20 billion deal on water projects. High Plains Underground Water District General Manager Jason Coleman stands in the district’s meeting room on May 21 in Lubbock. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] But no one wants to touch the rule of capture. In a state known for rugged individualism, politically speaking, reforming the law is tantamount to stripping away freedoms. “There probably are opportunities to vest groundwater districts with additional authority,” said Amy Hardberger, director for the Texas Tech University Center for Water Law and Policy. “I don’t think the political climate is going to do that.” State Sen. Charles Perry, a Lubbock Republican, and Rep. Cody Harris, a Palestine Republican, led the effort on water in Austin this year. Neither responded to requests for comment. Carlos Rubinstein, a water expert with consulting firm RSAH2O and a former chairman of the water development board, said the rule has been relied upon so long that it would be near impossible to undo the law. “I think it’s better to spend time working within the rules,” Rubinstein said. “And respect the rule of capture, yet also recognize that, in and of itself, it causes problems.” Even though groundwater districts were created to regulate groundwater, the law effectively stops them from doing so, or they risk major lawsuits. The state water plan, which spells out how the state’s water is to be used, acknowledges the shortfall. Groundwater availability is expected to decline by 25% by 2070, mostly due to reduced supply in the Ogallala and Edwards-Trinity aquifers. Together, the aquifers stretch across West Texas and up through the Panhandle. By itself, the Ogallala has an estimated three trillion gallons of water. Though the overwhelming majority in Texas is used by farmers. It’s expected to face a 50% decline by 2070. Groundwater is 54% of the state’s total water supply and is the state’s most vulnerable natural resource. It’s created by rainfall and other precipitation, and seeps into the ground. Like surface water, groundwater is heavily affected by ongoing droughts and prolonged heat waves. However, the state has more say in regulating surface water than it does groundwater. Surface water laws have provisions that cut supply to newer users in a drought and prohibit transferring surface water outside of basins. Historically, groundwater has been used by agriculture in the High Plains. However, as surface water evaporates at a quicker clip, cities and businesses are increasingly interested in tapping the underground resource. As Texas’ population continues to grow and surface water declines, groundwater will be the prize in future fights for water. In many ways, the damage is done in the High Plains, a region that spans from the top of the Panhandle down past Lubbock. The Ogallala Aquifer runs beneath the region, and it’s faced depletion to the point of no return, according to experts. Simply put: The Ogallala is not refilling to keep up with demand. “It’s a creeping disaster,” said Robert Mace, executive director of the Meadows Center for Water and the Environment. “It isn’t like you wake up tomorrow and nobody can pump anymore. It’s just happening slowly, every year.” [Image: Yuriko Schumacher/The Texas Tribune] Groundwater districts and the law The High Plains Water District was the first groundwater district created in Texas. Over a protracted multi-year fight, the Legislature created these new local government bodies in 1949, with voter approval, enshrining the new stewards of groundwater into the state Constitution. If the lawmakers hoped to embolden local officials to manage the troves of water under the soil, they failed. There are areas with groundwater that don’t have conservation districts. Each groundwater districts has different powers. In practice, most water districts permit wells and make decisions on spacing and location to meet the needs of the property owner. The one thing all groundwater districts have in common: They stop short of telling landowners they can’t pump water. In the seven decades since groundwater districts were created, a series of lawsuits have effectively strangled groundwater districts. Even as water levels decline from use and drought, districts still get regular requests for new wells. They won’t say no out of fear of litigation. The field technician coverage area is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office at the High Plains Underground Water District. Bibbs is a permit assistant for the district. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] “You have a host of different decisions to make as it pertains to management of groundwater,” Coleman said. “That list has grown over the years.” The possibility of lawsuits makes groundwater districts hesitant to regulate usage or put limitations on new well permits. Groundwater districts have to defend themselves in lawsuits, and most lack the resources to do so. A well spacing guide is seen in Nathaniel Bibbs’ office. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] “The law works against us in that way,” Hardberger, with Texas Tech University, said. “It means one large tool in our toolbox, regulation, is limited.” The most recent example is a lawsuit between the Braggs Farm and the Edwards Aquifer Authority. The farm requested permits for two pecan orchards in Medina County, outside San Antonio. The authority granted only one and limited how much water could be used based on state law. It wasn’t an arbitrary decision. The authority said it followed the statute set by the Legislature to determine the permit. “That’s all they were guaranteed,” said Gregory Ellis, the first general manager of the authority, referring to the water available to the farm. The Braggs family filed a takings lawsuit against the authority. This kind of claim can be filed when any level of government—including groundwater districts—takes private property for public use without paying for the owner’s losses. Braggs won. It is the only successful water-related takings claim in Texas, and it made groundwater laws murkier. It cost the authority $4.5 million. “I think it should have been paid by the state Legislature,” Ellis said. “They’re the ones who designed that permitting system. But that didn’t happen.” An appeals court upheld the ruling in 2013, and the Texas Supreme Court denied petitions to consider appeals. However, the state’s supreme court has previously suggested the Legislature could enhance the powers of the groundwater districts and regulate groundwater like surface water, just as many other states have done. While the laws are complicated, Ellis said the fundamental rule of capture has benefits. It has saved Texas’ legal system from a flurry of lawsuits between well owners. “If they had said ‘Yes, you can sue your neighbor for damaging your well,’ where does it stop?” Ellis asked. “Everybody sues everybody.” Coleman, the High Plains district’s manager, said some people want groundwater districts to have more power, while others think they have too much. Well owners want restrictions for others, but not on them, he said. “You’re charged as a district with trying to apply things uniformly and fairly,” Coleman said. Can’t reverse the past Two tractors were dropping seeds around Walt Hagood’s farm as he turned on his irrigation system for the first time this year. He didn’t plan on using much water. It’s too precious. The cotton farm stretches across 2,350 acres on the outskirts of Wolfforth, a town 12 miles southwest of Lubbock. Hagood irrigates about 80 acres of land, and prays that rain takes care of the rest. Walt Hagood drives across his farm on May 12, in Wolfforth. Hagood utilizes “dry farming,” a technique that relies on natural rainfall. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] “We used to have a lot of irrigated land with adequate water to make a crop,” Hagood said. “We don’t have that anymore.” The High Plains is home to cotton and cattle, multi-billion-dollar agricultural industries. The success is in large part due to the Ogallala. Since its discovery, the aquifer has helped farms around the region spring up through irrigation, a way for farmers to water their crops instead of waiting for rain that may not come. But as water in the aquifer declines, there are growing concerns that there won’t be enough water to support agriculture in the future. At the peak of irrigation development, more than 8.5 million acres were irrigated in Texas. About 65% of that was in the High Plains. In the decades since the irrigation boom, High Plains farmers have resorted to methods that might save water and keep their livelihoods afloat. They’ve changed their irrigation systems so water is used more efficiently. They grow cover crops so their soil is more likely to soak up rainwater. Some use apps to see where water is needed so it’s not wasted. A furrow irrigation is seen at Walt Hagood’s cotton farm. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] Farmers who have not changed their irrigation systems might not have a choice in the near future. It can take a week to pump an inch of water in some areas from the aquifer because of how little water is left. As conditions change underground, they are forced to drill deeper for water. That causes additional problems. Calcium can build up, and the water is of poorer quality. And when the water is used to spray crops through a pivot irrigation system, it’s more of a humidifier as water quickly evaporates in the heat. According to the groundwater district’s most recent management plan, 2 million acres in the district use groundwater for irrigation. About 95% of water from the Ogallala is used for irrigated agriculture. The plan states that the irrigated farms “afford economic stability to the area and support a number of other industries.” The state water plan shows groundwater supply is expected to decline, and drought won’t be the only factor causing a shortage. Demand for municipal use outweighs irrigation use, reflecting the state’s future growth. In Region O, which is the South Plains, water for irrigation declines by 2070 while demand for municipal use rises because of population growth in the region. Coleman, with the High Plains groundwater district, often thinks about how the aquifer will hold up with future growth. There are some factors at play with water planning that are nearly impossible to predict and account for, Coleman said. Declining surface water could make groundwater a source for municipalities that didn’t depend on it before. Regions known for having big, open patches of land, like the High Plains, could be attractive to incoming businesses. People could move to the country and want to drill a well, with no understanding of water availability. The state will continue to grow, Coleman said, and all the incoming businesses and industries will undoubtedly need water. “We could say ‘Well, it’s no one’s fault. We didn’t know that factory would need 20,000 acre-feet of water a year,” Coleman said. “It’s not happening right now, but what’s around the corner?” Coleman said this puts agriculture in a tenuous position. The region is full of small towns that depend on agriculture and have supporting businesses, like cotton gins, equipment and feed stores, and pesticide and fertilizer sprayers. This puts pressure on the High Plains water district, along with the two regional water planning groups in the region, to keep agriculture alive. “Districts are not trying to reduce pumping down to a sustainable level,” said Mace with the Meadows Foundation. “And I don’t fault them for that, because doing that is economic devastation in a region with farmers.” Hagood, the cotton farmer, doesn’t think reforming groundwater rights is the way to solve it. What’s done is done, he said. “Our U.S. Constitution protects our private property rights, and that’s what this is all about,” Hagood said. “Any time we have a regulation and people are given more authority, it doesn’t work out right for everybody.” Rapid population growth, climate change, and aging water infrastructure all threaten the state’s water supply. [Photo: Annie Rice for The Texas Tribune] What can be done The state water plan recommends irrigation conservation as a strategy. It’s also the least costly water management method. But that strategy is fraught. Farmers need to irrigate in times of drought, and telling them to stop can draw criticism. In Eastern New Mexico, the Ogallala Land and Water Conservancy, a nonprofit organization, has been retiring irrigation wells. Landowners keep their water rights, and the organization pays them to stop irrigating their farms. Landowners get paid every year as part of the voluntary agreement, and they can end it at any point. Ladona Clayton, executive director of the organization, said they have been criticized, with their efforts being called a “war” and “land grab.” They also get pushback on why the responsibility falls on farmers. She said it’s because of how much water is used for irrigation. They have to be aggressive in their approach, she said. The aquifer supplies water to the Cannon Air Force Base. “We don’t want them to stop agricultural production,” Clayton said. “But for me to say it will be the same level that irrigation can support would be untrue.” There is another possible lifeline that people in the High Plains are eyeing as a solution: the Dockum Aquifer. It’s a minor aquifer that underlies part of the Ogallala, so it would be accessible to farmers and ranchers in the region. The High Plains Water District also oversees this aquifer. If it seems too good to be true—that the most irrigated part of Texas would just so happen to have another abundant supply of water flowing underneath—it’s because there’s a catch. The Dockum is full of extremely salty brackish water. Some counties can use the water for irrigation and drinking water without treatment, but it’s unusable in others. According to the groundwater district, a test well in Lubbock County pulled up water that was as salty as seawater. Rubinstein, the former water development board chairman, said there are pockets of brackish groundwater in Texas that haven’t been tapped yet. It would be enough to meet the needs on the horizon, but it would also be very expensive to obtain and use. A landowner would have to go deeper to get it, then pump the water over a longer distance. “That costs money, and then you have to treat it on top of that,” Rubinstein said. “But, it is water.” Landowners have expressed interest in using desalination, a treatment method to lower dissolved salt levels. Desalination of produced and brackish water is one of the ideas that was being floated around at the Legislature this year, along with building a pipeline to move water across the state. Hagood, the farmer, is skeptical. He thinks whatever water they move could get used up before it makes it all the way to West Texas. There is always brackish groundwater. Another aquifer brings the chance of history repeating—if the Dockum aquifer is treated so its water is usable, will people drain it, too? Hagood said there would have to be limits. Disclosure: Edwards Aquifer Authority and Texas Tech University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here. This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune, a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at texastribune.org.
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  • With a Busy 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast, Staffing Cuts and Warm Oceans Worry Experts

    May 30, 20255 min readWhy This Hurricane Season Has Experts on EdgePredictions for an above-average number of storms, communities that are still recovering and cuts to the National Weather Service have meteorologists and other experts worried about this hurricane seasonBy Andrea Thompson edited by Dean VisserCategory 4 Hurricane Florence as seen from the International Space Station in 2018. ESA/NASA–A. GerstJune 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy.Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos—have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year.Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane seasonOn supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s—put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strengthor higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes. And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale.The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there’s no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year.And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. “Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we’ve seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,” says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. “That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,” she says.It’s a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. “The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that’s undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,” Lowry says. “This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.”Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, “I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak” of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia.Several experts noted that this year’s conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, “the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we’ve seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,” Lowry says. But, he adds, they are “still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.”Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. “My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,” he says.Communities are still recoveringInevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year “places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,” Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season.An aerial view of destroyed houses in Port St Lucie, Fla., after a tornado hit the area and caused severe damage as Hurricane Milton swept through on October 11, 2024.Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/AFP via Getty ImagesA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in “perpetual disaster recovery” mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone.It’s entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. “With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,” Marshall says.NWS and FEMA cutsPiled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Serviceand the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,” says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. “But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.”Though the National Hurricane Centermonitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS’s Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots.Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions.There is one positive note: “I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,” Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. “Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.”James Franklin, former chief of the NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. “When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,” he says.Finally, another big worry is simply the government’s ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters’ biggest worry is that FEMA won't “be capable of managing a major disaster right now.”Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. “I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,” says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, “and it’s hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.”
    #with #busy #hurricane #season #forecast
    With a Busy 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast, Staffing Cuts and Warm Oceans Worry Experts
    May 30, 20255 min readWhy This Hurricane Season Has Experts on EdgePredictions for an above-average number of storms, communities that are still recovering and cuts to the National Weather Service have meteorologists and other experts worried about this hurricane seasonBy Andrea Thompson edited by Dean VisserCategory 4 Hurricane Florence as seen from the International Space Station in 2018. ESA/NASA–A. GerstJune 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy.Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos—have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year.Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane seasonOn supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s—put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strengthor higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes. And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale.The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there’s no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year.And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. “Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we’ve seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,” says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. “That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,” she says.It’s a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. “The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that’s undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,” Lowry says. “This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.”Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, “I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak” of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia.Several experts noted that this year’s conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, “the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we’ve seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,” Lowry says. But, he adds, they are “still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.”Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. “My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,” he says.Communities are still recoveringInevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year “places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,” Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season.An aerial view of destroyed houses in Port St Lucie, Fla., after a tornado hit the area and caused severe damage as Hurricane Milton swept through on October 11, 2024.Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/AFP via Getty ImagesA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in “perpetual disaster recovery” mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone.It’s entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. “With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,” Marshall says.NWS and FEMA cutsPiled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Serviceand the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,” says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. “But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.”Though the National Hurricane Centermonitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS’s Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots.Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions.There is one positive note: “I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,” Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. “Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.”James Franklin, former chief of the NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. “When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,” he says.Finally, another big worry is simply the government’s ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters’ biggest worry is that FEMA won't “be capable of managing a major disaster right now.”Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. “I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,” says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, “and it’s hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.” #with #busy #hurricane #season #forecast
    WWW.SCIENTIFICAMERICAN.COM
    With a Busy 2025 Hurricane Season Forecast, Staffing Cuts and Warm Oceans Worry Experts
    May 30, 20255 min readWhy This Hurricane Season Has Experts on EdgePredictions for an above-average number of storms, communities that are still recovering and cuts to the National Weather Service have meteorologists and other experts worried about this hurricane seasonBy Andrea Thompson edited by Dean VisserCategory 4 Hurricane Florence as seen from the International Space Station in 2018. ESA/NASA–A. GerstJune 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy.Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos—have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year.Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane seasonOn supporting science journalismIf you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today.Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s—put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strength (with winds of 39 to 74 miles per hour) or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of more than 74 mph). And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3 (those of 111 to 129 mph) or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale.The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there’s no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year.And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. “Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we’ve seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,” says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. “That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,” she says.It’s a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. “The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that’s undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,” Lowry says. “This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.”Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, “I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak” of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia.Several experts noted that this year’s conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, “the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we’ve seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,” Lowry says. But, he adds, they are “still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.”Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. “My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,” he says.Communities are still recoveringInevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year “places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,” Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season.An aerial view of destroyed houses in Port St Lucie, Fla., after a tornado hit the area and caused severe damage as Hurricane Milton swept through on October 11, 2024.Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo/AFP via Getty ImagesA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in “perpetual disaster recovery” mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone.It’s entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. “With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,” Marshall says.NWS and FEMA cutsPiled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). “It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,” says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. “But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.”Though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS’s Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots.Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions.There is one positive note: “I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,” Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. “Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.”James Franklin, former chief of the NHC’s Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. “When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,” he says.Finally, another big worry is simply the government’s ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters’ biggest worry is that FEMA won't “be capable of managing a major disaster right now.”Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. “I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,” says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, “and it’s hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.”
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  • Valve releases SteamOS 3.7.8 with new features for Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go S support

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    Valve releases SteamOS 3.7.8 with new features for Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go S support

    Taras Buria

    Neowin
    @TarasBuria ·

    May 23, 2025 05:46 EDT

    Valve's SteamOS 3.7.8 is now out in the Stable Channel. This release adds many improvements and new fixes for the Steam Deck and some other important changes, such as better support for the ASUS ROG Ally, the original Lenovo Legion Go, and the upcoming Lenovo Legion Go S. Plus, users can now test SteamOS on other AMD-powered handheld consoles.
    Useful new features for the Steam Deck in SteamOS 3.7.8 include the ability to set the charge limit at 80% to prevent battery degradation. This change will help preserve the battery life when the console is always connected or rarely has its battery fully depleted. Also, the operating system now supports frame limiting on screenswith Variable Refresh Ratesupport and the Proteus Byowave controller.
    As for other handheld consoles, SteamOS' recovery image now works with the Lenovo Legion Go S. If you want to try SteamOS on another handheld with an AMD processor, you can use the updated recovery image by following the instructions published on the official website.

    Other changes in SteamOS 3.7.8 include fixes for issues with hanging controllers and non-working Switch Pro Controller gyros, Bluetooth audio fixes and a new battery level indicator for supported Bluetooth devices, AMD P-State CPU frequency control support, fixes for surround sound, improved compatibility for certain displays, and patches for performance regressions in No Rest for the Wicked
    Finally, Valve updated SteamOS to a newer Arch Linux base, Linux kernel, the Mesa graphics driver base, Plasma for desktop mode, and more. You can find the complete changelog for SteamOS 3.7.8 in a post on the official Steam website.

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    Valve releases SteamOS 3.7.8 with new features for Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go S support
    When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works. Valve releases SteamOS 3.7.8 with new features for Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go S support Taras Buria Neowin @TarasBuria · May 23, 2025 05:46 EDT Valve's SteamOS 3.7.8 is now out in the Stable Channel. This release adds many improvements and new fixes for the Steam Deck and some other important changes, such as better support for the ASUS ROG Ally, the original Lenovo Legion Go, and the upcoming Lenovo Legion Go S. Plus, users can now test SteamOS on other AMD-powered handheld consoles. Useful new features for the Steam Deck in SteamOS 3.7.8 include the ability to set the charge limit at 80% to prevent battery degradation. This change will help preserve the battery life when the console is always connected or rarely has its battery fully depleted. Also, the operating system now supports frame limiting on screenswith Variable Refresh Ratesupport and the Proteus Byowave controller. As for other handheld consoles, SteamOS' recovery image now works with the Lenovo Legion Go S. If you want to try SteamOS on another handheld with an AMD processor, you can use the updated recovery image by following the instructions published on the official website. Other changes in SteamOS 3.7.8 include fixes for issues with hanging controllers and non-working Switch Pro Controller gyros, Bluetooth audio fixes and a new battery level indicator for supported Bluetooth devices, AMD P-State CPU frequency control support, fixes for surround sound, improved compatibility for certain displays, and patches for performance regressions in No Rest for the Wicked Finally, Valve updated SteamOS to a newer Arch Linux base, Linux kernel, the Mesa graphics driver base, Plasma for desktop mode, and more. You can find the complete changelog for SteamOS 3.7.8 in a post on the official Steam website. Tags Report a problem with article Follow @NeowinFeed #valve #releases #steamos #with #new
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    Valve releases SteamOS 3.7.8 with new features for Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go S support
    When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works. Valve releases SteamOS 3.7.8 with new features for Steam Deck and Lenovo Legion Go S support Taras Buria Neowin @TarasBuria · May 23, 2025 05:46 EDT Valve's SteamOS 3.7.8 is now out in the Stable Channel. This release adds many improvements and new fixes for the Steam Deck and some other important changes, such as better support for the ASUS ROG Ally, the original Lenovo Legion Go, and the upcoming Lenovo Legion Go S. Plus, users can now test SteamOS on other AMD-powered handheld consoles. Useful new features for the Steam Deck in SteamOS 3.7.8 include the ability to set the charge limit at 80% to prevent battery degradation. This change will help preserve the battery life when the console is always connected or rarely has its battery fully depleted. Also, the operating system now supports frame limiting on screens (internal and external) with Variable Refresh Rate (VRR) support and the Proteus Byowave controller. As for other handheld consoles, SteamOS' recovery image now works with the Lenovo Legion Go S. If you want to try SteamOS on another handheld with an AMD processor, you can use the updated recovery image by following the instructions published on the official website. Other changes in SteamOS 3.7.8 include fixes for issues with hanging controllers and non-working Switch Pro Controller gyros, Bluetooth audio fixes and a new battery level indicator for supported Bluetooth devices, AMD P-State CPU frequency control support, fixes for surround sound, improved compatibility for certain displays (TCL FireTV and Dell VRR-capable monitors), and patches for performance regressions in No Rest for the Wicked Finally, Valve updated SteamOS to a newer Arch Linux base, Linux kernel (6.11), the Mesa graphics driver base, Plasma for desktop mode (6.2.5), and more. You can find the complete changelog for SteamOS 3.7.8 in a post on the official Steam website. Tags Report a problem with article Follow @NeowinFeed
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  • All ammo upgrade leaders locations in Doom: The Dark Ages

    In Doom: The Dark Ages, you have a long list of weapons at your disposal, each gun with its own flavor. But regardless of whether we are talking about the Combat Shotgun or the Chainshot, you will always need ammo upgrades for them.

    Right after your Health and Shield capacity, ammo is one of the most important resources in Doom: The Dark Ages. It’s also one of the scarcest. Since you can’t store thousands of bullets for all the weapons you have in the game, any chance of recovering ammo or increasing the amount you can keep with you is always welcome. 

    This guide helps you understand how to get ammo upgrades in Doom: The Dark Ages plus shows you where to find all ammo upgrades.

    How to upgrade ammo in Doom: The Dark Ages

    To upgrade your ammo capacity, you need to collect the Demonic Essence of specific leaders — and to do so, you must find and defeat them first. When you find leaders from whom you can collect Demonic Essence, a yellow icon showing three bullets appears above their heads.

    Unlike the other two types of upgrades, Health and Shield, when you defeat a leader, they will give you an upgrade for one of the three kinds of ammo in the game: Shells, Cells, Spikers, Skulls, Reaver, and Launcher.

    These upgrades are permanent, so you don’t need to worry about having to chase leaders in every chapter.

    Below, you find all the chapters in which there are leaders who give you ammo upgrades in Doom: The Dark Ages.

    The Holy City of AratumThe fifth chapter of Doom: The Dark Ages is the first time you have access to your cyberdragon to explore the areas and look for its secret landing zones. This is a lengthy chapter, but there’s only one ammoupgrade to get.

    To find the leader, after you’re done with the tutorial, fly with your dragon to the first ship to your right. You will need to destroy all its canons for the landing spot to appear. Once you’re in, there isn’t much secret. Just keep following the path available to you until you reach the last room.

    The objective sign will take you to the lowest platform in front of a red energy gate which you must destroy dashing with your shield. However, before you can even try, the leader will appear. 

    Your first ammo upgrade leader is an armored Hell Knight. This enemy uses the jumping Hell Surge attacks which the regular version you’ve already faced does. They will also throw Hell Surge axes at you, so stay alert to parry them. 

    The challenge in this fight is to fight this aggressive enemy in a tiny corridor. Focus on using the Accelerator to break their armor faster and don’t let them corner you. 

    The Siege – Part 1Doom: The Dark Ages’s Chapter 6 will force you to traverse a long and a little bit confusing map. To find the leader who will give you an ammoupgrade, you want to visit the area to the left corner of the map from the starting gate. The place is marked by a red skull icon on your map.

    This fight is the first involving the morale system, which means that, before you can actually fight the leader — who will be attacking as soon as they spot you — you need to kill the other demons in the area to deplete its morale bar.

    Once you have killed enough demons and a message appears saying “Leader Shield Disabled!,” it’s time to shoot. The leader this time is an armored Mancubus and as you might have expected your top priority is to destroy their armor.

    Keep a safe distance from them since the Mancubus will pop their flamethrowers at you if you get too close. You can play it safe and look for their signature attack, a wall of energy that always has one side which you can parry. 

    Ancestral ForgeFinding the leader in Chapter 9 who gives you an ammoupgrade is just a matter of reaching the end of the level. You will need to face another armored Mancubus. Take advantage of the Shield Rune you unlock in this chapter and parry all their attacks. 

    Be careful with the regular enemies around you as you fight the Mancubus. The fight is easier than the previous one, so you don’t need to worry too much. You should, however, deal with the Pinky Rider who is in the arena as soon as possible to make your life easier.

    The Forsaken PlainsYour main goal in Chapter 10 is to destroy the two Hell Cannons in the Forsaken Plains. By going to the one on the right side of the map, you will be closer to the leader you want to fight to unlock an ammoupgrade. They are indicated by an icon of a crowned skull in a higher segment of the region.

    When you reach the place, all you find is a tree. Destroy it with your shield to summon some waves of enemies. After defeating them, the leader will appear. This time you need to fight a Revenant, but they don’t have a morale bar, making the encounter less demanding.

    Revenants are pretty agile so try your best to get closer to them before taking a shot. They usually shoot Hell Purge projectiles and skulls. You know the drill, go parry them. 

    If you see them becoming all white, don’t waste your bullets. The Revenant doesn’t take damage while frozen in this state. It is worth parrying the projectiles they will shoot though since they seem to break their ice skin.

    From BeyondIn Chapter 13, you’ll again fly around with your cyberdragon, destroying ships and dealing with tentacles from another dimension. Usual stuff. During this chapter, there is also an ammoupgrade for you to gain.

    By following the main mission of this chapter, you will eventually get to the first landing spot on the map. It’s a tower that you access after destroying a ship. Once you land, the battle against an armored Mancubus will start. 

    Although the strategy won’t change when fighting them directly, you must first clean the area to deplete its morale bar. Always try to look for the larger enemies since killing the smaller ones doesn’t affect the bar.

    Spire of NerathulSpire of Nerathul takes you to a region you haven’t explored yet but don’t fret. The dangers are still the same ones. As you progress in the main mission of Chapter 14, you will destroy a statue of the Old One and drop into a hole that takes you to an arena.

    Enemies will spawn and after defeating some of them, Chapter 14’s ammoupgrade leader will appear, a Revenant. Follow the same strategy suggested for Chapter 10’s leader. Just be careful because a Komodo, a large behemoth of Hell will fight alongside the leader.

    The Kar’Thul MarshesThere is one leader that will give you an ammoupgrade in Chapter 16 and you can find them by just following the main mission. As you make your way to gather the second Relic Fragment, you will find an arena where the leader is.

    You will be facing an armored Mancubus again to get your hands on this upgrade. The real challenge in this fight is to handle the Pinky Rider, the Cyberdemon, and the Cosmic Baron who are also in the arena. Kill them all to disable the leader’s shield.

    Temple of LomarithChapter 17, the Temple of Lomarith is a quite confusing map and there are two leaders for you to chase. You find the first one as you’re trying to rescue Thira. The area has a huge gate in the middle so it’s hard to miss.

    Be ready to fight your way through waves of enemies containing powerful ones like the Vagary before you can disable the leader’s shield. When their morale bar is completely depleted, you can look for the armored Pinky Rider, the first leader you fight in this chapter. Defeating them unlocks an ammoupgrade.

    Now, the second leader is hidden. By following the main mission, you eventually get to a section where you use green gates to reach some floating wreckage of ships. Before you use the second gate, look to your left and you will see that you can dash to destroy a wall. 

    Drop to the level below and you will see a tree. Once you use your shield to destroy it, the room will be sealed and waves of enemies will start to appear.

    After killing some enemies, the leader, a Revenant, will come and you must defeat them to unlock an ammoupgrade. You are already familiar with this enemy. Just be careful since the room is small and you will be fighting large enemies inside of it.

    Harbor of SoulsAfter one hell of a ride to the underworld, it’s time for you to find your back to the Mortal Plane. However, before you do so, there’s a leader you need to defeat and an ammoupgrade to claim. Keep following the main mission and you will find it.

    You face another armored Pinky Rider in this chapter, who has a morale bar. Take advantage of the Berserk cell in this arena to fight the strongest demons around. With them out of the way, beating the Pinky Rider is quite simple. 

    ResurrectionThere is a lot to be done in Chapter 20, but luckily finding the leader — who gives you an ammoupgrade — of this chapter is not one of the most difficult challenges it offers.

    Your main goal in the first segment of this chapter is to destroy the Siege Towers. Following this objective will inevitably lead you to the left part of the map where there is a red zone with a crowned skull icon. By getting there, you will find the leader.

    This time a Komodo is the leader, a quite challenging enemy to face. Focus on clearing the area of other large enemies and, when facing the Komodo, focus on parrying their attacks. They unleash long sequences of attacks so learn them to know the right moment to fight back.

    ReckoningThere’s one last leader in Doom: The Dark Ages for you to hunt down. You can find them by reaching the last red zone on the top side of the map. Once you claim their Demonic Essence, you will receive an ammoupgrade. There are some tough fights before you can reach the place, so be prepared.

    The leader of Chapter 22 is a Cyberdemon and they are in their regular version, so you know what to do. Get close to them, parry their attacks, and hit the Cyberdemon hard. They have a morale bar, forcing you to fight a Komodo and other strong demons before the final encounter.
    #all #ammo #upgrade #leaders #locations
    All ammo upgrade leaders locations in Doom: The Dark Ages
    In Doom: The Dark Ages, you have a long list of weapons at your disposal, each gun with its own flavor. But regardless of whether we are talking about the Combat Shotgun or the Chainshot, you will always need ammo upgrades for them. Right after your Health and Shield capacity, ammo is one of the most important resources in Doom: The Dark Ages. It’s also one of the scarcest. Since you can’t store thousands of bullets for all the weapons you have in the game, any chance of recovering ammo or increasing the amount you can keep with you is always welcome.  This guide helps you understand how to get ammo upgrades in Doom: The Dark Ages plus shows you where to find all ammo upgrades. How to upgrade ammo in Doom: The Dark Ages To upgrade your ammo capacity, you need to collect the Demonic Essence of specific leaders — and to do so, you must find and defeat them first. When you find leaders from whom you can collect Demonic Essence, a yellow icon showing three bullets appears above their heads. Unlike the other two types of upgrades, Health and Shield, when you defeat a leader, they will give you an upgrade for one of the three kinds of ammo in the game: Shells, Cells, Spikers, Skulls, Reaver, and Launcher. These upgrades are permanent, so you don’t need to worry about having to chase leaders in every chapter. Below, you find all the chapters in which there are leaders who give you ammo upgrades in Doom: The Dark Ages. The Holy City of AratumThe fifth chapter of Doom: The Dark Ages is the first time you have access to your cyberdragon to explore the areas and look for its secret landing zones. This is a lengthy chapter, but there’s only one ammoupgrade to get. To find the leader, after you’re done with the tutorial, fly with your dragon to the first ship to your right. You will need to destroy all its canons for the landing spot to appear. Once you’re in, there isn’t much secret. Just keep following the path available to you until you reach the last room. The objective sign will take you to the lowest platform in front of a red energy gate which you must destroy dashing with your shield. However, before you can even try, the leader will appear.  Your first ammo upgrade leader is an armored Hell Knight. This enemy uses the jumping Hell Surge attacks which the regular version you’ve already faced does. They will also throw Hell Surge axes at you, so stay alert to parry them.  The challenge in this fight is to fight this aggressive enemy in a tiny corridor. Focus on using the Accelerator to break their armor faster and don’t let them corner you.  The Siege – Part 1Doom: The Dark Ages’s Chapter 6 will force you to traverse a long and a little bit confusing map. To find the leader who will give you an ammoupgrade, you want to visit the area to the left corner of the map from the starting gate. The place is marked by a red skull icon on your map. This fight is the first involving the morale system, which means that, before you can actually fight the leader — who will be attacking as soon as they spot you — you need to kill the other demons in the area to deplete its morale bar. Once you have killed enough demons and a message appears saying “Leader Shield Disabled!,” it’s time to shoot. The leader this time is an armored Mancubus and as you might have expected your top priority is to destroy their armor. Keep a safe distance from them since the Mancubus will pop their flamethrowers at you if you get too close. You can play it safe and look for their signature attack, a wall of energy that always has one side which you can parry.  Ancestral ForgeFinding the leader in Chapter 9 who gives you an ammoupgrade is just a matter of reaching the end of the level. You will need to face another armored Mancubus. Take advantage of the Shield Rune you unlock in this chapter and parry all their attacks.  Be careful with the regular enemies around you as you fight the Mancubus. The fight is easier than the previous one, so you don’t need to worry too much. You should, however, deal with the Pinky Rider who is in the arena as soon as possible to make your life easier. The Forsaken PlainsYour main goal in Chapter 10 is to destroy the two Hell Cannons in the Forsaken Plains. By going to the one on the right side of the map, you will be closer to the leader you want to fight to unlock an ammoupgrade. They are indicated by an icon of a crowned skull in a higher segment of the region. When you reach the place, all you find is a tree. Destroy it with your shield to summon some waves of enemies. After defeating them, the leader will appear. This time you need to fight a Revenant, but they don’t have a morale bar, making the encounter less demanding. Revenants are pretty agile so try your best to get closer to them before taking a shot. They usually shoot Hell Purge projectiles and skulls. You know the drill, go parry them.  If you see them becoming all white, don’t waste your bullets. The Revenant doesn’t take damage while frozen in this state. It is worth parrying the projectiles they will shoot though since they seem to break their ice skin. From BeyondIn Chapter 13, you’ll again fly around with your cyberdragon, destroying ships and dealing with tentacles from another dimension. Usual stuff. During this chapter, there is also an ammoupgrade for you to gain. By following the main mission of this chapter, you will eventually get to the first landing spot on the map. It’s a tower that you access after destroying a ship. Once you land, the battle against an armored Mancubus will start.  Although the strategy won’t change when fighting them directly, you must first clean the area to deplete its morale bar. Always try to look for the larger enemies since killing the smaller ones doesn’t affect the bar. Spire of NerathulSpire of Nerathul takes you to a region you haven’t explored yet but don’t fret. The dangers are still the same ones. As you progress in the main mission of Chapter 14, you will destroy a statue of the Old One and drop into a hole that takes you to an arena. Enemies will spawn and after defeating some of them, Chapter 14’s ammoupgrade leader will appear, a Revenant. Follow the same strategy suggested for Chapter 10’s leader. Just be careful because a Komodo, a large behemoth of Hell will fight alongside the leader. The Kar’Thul MarshesThere is one leader that will give you an ammoupgrade in Chapter 16 and you can find them by just following the main mission. As you make your way to gather the second Relic Fragment, you will find an arena where the leader is. You will be facing an armored Mancubus again to get your hands on this upgrade. The real challenge in this fight is to handle the Pinky Rider, the Cyberdemon, and the Cosmic Baron who are also in the arena. Kill them all to disable the leader’s shield. Temple of LomarithChapter 17, the Temple of Lomarith is a quite confusing map and there are two leaders for you to chase. You find the first one as you’re trying to rescue Thira. The area has a huge gate in the middle so it’s hard to miss. Be ready to fight your way through waves of enemies containing powerful ones like the Vagary before you can disable the leader’s shield. When their morale bar is completely depleted, you can look for the armored Pinky Rider, the first leader you fight in this chapter. Defeating them unlocks an ammoupgrade. Now, the second leader is hidden. By following the main mission, you eventually get to a section where you use green gates to reach some floating wreckage of ships. Before you use the second gate, look to your left and you will see that you can dash to destroy a wall.  Drop to the level below and you will see a tree. Once you use your shield to destroy it, the room will be sealed and waves of enemies will start to appear. After killing some enemies, the leader, a Revenant, will come and you must defeat them to unlock an ammoupgrade. You are already familiar with this enemy. Just be careful since the room is small and you will be fighting large enemies inside of it. Harbor of SoulsAfter one hell of a ride to the underworld, it’s time for you to find your back to the Mortal Plane. However, before you do so, there’s a leader you need to defeat and an ammoupgrade to claim. Keep following the main mission and you will find it. You face another armored Pinky Rider in this chapter, who has a morale bar. Take advantage of the Berserk cell in this arena to fight the strongest demons around. With them out of the way, beating the Pinky Rider is quite simple.  ResurrectionThere is a lot to be done in Chapter 20, but luckily finding the leader — who gives you an ammoupgrade — of this chapter is not one of the most difficult challenges it offers. Your main goal in the first segment of this chapter is to destroy the Siege Towers. Following this objective will inevitably lead you to the left part of the map where there is a red zone with a crowned skull icon. By getting there, you will find the leader. This time a Komodo is the leader, a quite challenging enemy to face. Focus on clearing the area of other large enemies and, when facing the Komodo, focus on parrying their attacks. They unleash long sequences of attacks so learn them to know the right moment to fight back. ReckoningThere’s one last leader in Doom: The Dark Ages for you to hunt down. You can find them by reaching the last red zone on the top side of the map. Once you claim their Demonic Essence, you will receive an ammoupgrade. There are some tough fights before you can reach the place, so be prepared. The leader of Chapter 22 is a Cyberdemon and they are in their regular version, so you know what to do. Get close to them, parry their attacks, and hit the Cyberdemon hard. They have a morale bar, forcing you to fight a Komodo and other strong demons before the final encounter. #all #ammo #upgrade #leaders #locations
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    All ammo upgrade leaders locations in Doom: The Dark Ages
    In Doom: The Dark Ages, you have a long list of weapons at your disposal, each gun with its own flavor. But regardless of whether we are talking about the Combat Shotgun or the Chainshot, you will always need ammo upgrades for them. Right after your Health and Shield capacity, ammo is one of the most important resources in Doom: The Dark Ages. It’s also one of the scarcest. Since you can’t store thousands of bullets for all the weapons you have in the game, any chance of recovering ammo or increasing the amount you can keep with you is always welcome.  This guide helps you understand how to get ammo upgrades in Doom: The Dark Ages plus shows you where to find all ammo upgrades. How to upgrade ammo in Doom: The Dark Ages To upgrade your ammo capacity, you need to collect the Demonic Essence of specific leaders — and to do so, you must find and defeat them first. When you find leaders from whom you can collect Demonic Essence, a yellow icon showing three bullets appears above their heads. Unlike the other two types of upgrades, Health and Shield, when you defeat a leader, they will give you an upgrade for one of the three kinds of ammo in the game: Shells, Cells, Spikers, Skulls, Reaver, and Launcher. These upgrades are permanent, so you don’t need to worry about having to chase leaders in every chapter. Below, you find all the chapters in which there are leaders who give you ammo upgrades in Doom: The Dark Ages. The Holy City of Aratum (Chapter 5) The fifth chapter of Doom: The Dark Ages is the first time you have access to your cyberdragon to explore the areas and look for its secret landing zones. This is a lengthy chapter, but there’s only one ammo (Shell) upgrade to get. To find the leader, after you’re done with the tutorial, fly with your dragon to the first ship to your right. You will need to destroy all its canons for the landing spot to appear. Once you’re in, there isn’t much secret. Just keep following the path available to you until you reach the last room. The objective sign will take you to the lowest platform in front of a red energy gate which you must destroy dashing with your shield. However, before you can even try, the leader will appear.  Your first ammo upgrade leader is an armored Hell Knight. This enemy uses the jumping Hell Surge attacks which the regular version you’ve already faced does. They will also throw Hell Surge axes at you, so stay alert to parry them.  The challenge in this fight is to fight this aggressive enemy in a tiny corridor. Focus on using the Accelerator to break their armor faster and don’t let them corner you.  The Siege – Part 1 (Chapter 6) Doom: The Dark Ages’s Chapter 6 will force you to traverse a long and a little bit confusing map. To find the leader who will give you an ammo (Spiker) upgrade, you want to visit the area to the left corner of the map from the starting gate. The place is marked by a red skull icon on your map. This fight is the first involving the morale system, which means that, before you can actually fight the leader — who will be attacking as soon as they spot you — you need to kill the other demons in the area to deplete its morale bar. Once you have killed enough demons and a message appears saying “Leader Shield Disabled!,” it’s time to shoot. The leader this time is an armored Mancubus and as you might have expected your top priority is to destroy their armor. Keep a safe distance from them since the Mancubus will pop their flamethrowers at you if you get too close. You can play it safe and look for their signature attack, a wall of energy that always has one side which you can parry.  Ancestral Forge (Chapter 9) Finding the leader in Chapter 9 who gives you an ammo (Cell) upgrade is just a matter of reaching the end of the level. You will need to face another armored Mancubus. Take advantage of the Shield Rune you unlock in this chapter and parry all their attacks.  Be careful with the regular enemies around you as you fight the Mancubus. The fight is easier than the previous one, so you don’t need to worry too much. You should, however, deal with the Pinky Rider who is in the arena as soon as possible to make your life easier. The Forsaken Plains (Chapter 10) Your main goal in Chapter 10 is to destroy the two Hell Cannons in the Forsaken Plains. By going to the one on the right side of the map, you will be closer to the leader you want to fight to unlock an ammo (Skull) upgrade. They are indicated by an icon of a crowned skull in a higher segment of the region. When you reach the place, all you find is a tree. Destroy it with your shield to summon some waves of enemies. After defeating them, the leader will appear. This time you need to fight a Revenant, but they don’t have a morale bar, making the encounter less demanding. Revenants are pretty agile so try your best to get closer to them before taking a shot. They usually shoot Hell Purge projectiles and skulls. You know the drill, go parry them.  If you see them becoming all white, don’t waste your bullets. The Revenant doesn’t take damage while frozen in this state. It is worth parrying the projectiles they will shoot though since they seem to break their ice skin. From Beyond (Chapter 13) In Chapter 13, you’ll again fly around with your cyberdragon, destroying ships and dealing with tentacles from another dimension. Usual stuff. During this chapter, there is also an ammo (Reaver) upgrade for you to gain. By following the main mission of this chapter, you will eventually get to the first landing spot on the map. It’s a tower that you access after destroying a ship. Once you land, the battle against an armored Mancubus will start.  Although the strategy won’t change when fighting them directly, you must first clean the area to deplete its morale bar. Always try to look for the larger enemies since killing the smaller ones doesn’t affect the bar. Spire of Nerathul (Chapter 14) Spire of Nerathul takes you to a region you haven’t explored yet but don’t fret. The dangers are still the same ones. As you progress in the main mission of Chapter 14, you will destroy a statue of the Old One and drop into a hole that takes you to an arena. Enemies will spawn and after defeating some of them, Chapter 14’s ammo (Launcher) upgrade leader will appear, a Revenant. Follow the same strategy suggested for Chapter 10’s leader. Just be careful because a Komodo, a large behemoth of Hell will fight alongside the leader. The Kar’Thul Marshes (Chapter 16) There is one leader that will give you an ammo (Shell) upgrade in Chapter 16 and you can find them by just following the main mission. As you make your way to gather the second Relic Fragment, you will find an arena where the leader is. You will be facing an armored Mancubus again to get your hands on this upgrade. The real challenge in this fight is to handle the Pinky Rider, the Cyberdemon, and the Cosmic Baron who are also in the arena. Kill them all to disable the leader’s shield. Temple of Lomarith (Chapter 17) Chapter 17, the Temple of Lomarith is a quite confusing map and there are two leaders for you to chase. You find the first one as you’re trying to rescue Thira. The area has a huge gate in the middle so it’s hard to miss. Be ready to fight your way through waves of enemies containing powerful ones like the Vagary before you can disable the leader’s shield. When their morale bar is completely depleted, you can look for the armored Pinky Rider, the first leader you fight in this chapter. Defeating them unlocks an ammo (Spike) upgrade. Now, the second leader is hidden. By following the main mission, you eventually get to a section where you use green gates to reach some floating wreckage of ships. Before you use the second gate, look to your left and you will see that you can dash to destroy a wall.  Drop to the level below and you will see a tree. Once you use your shield to destroy it, the room will be sealed and waves of enemies will start to appear. After killing some enemies, the leader, a Revenant, will come and you must defeat them to unlock an ammo (Cell) upgrade. You are already familiar with this enemy. Just be careful since the room is small and you will be fighting large enemies inside of it. Harbor of Souls (Chapter 19) After one hell of a ride to the underworld, it’s time for you to find your back to the Mortal Plane. However, before you do so, there’s a leader you need to defeat and an ammo (Skull) upgrade to claim. Keep following the main mission and you will find it. You face another armored Pinky Rider in this chapter, who has a morale bar. Take advantage of the Berserk cell in this arena to fight the strongest demons around. With them out of the way, beating the Pinky Rider is quite simple.  Resurrection (Chapter 20) There is a lot to be done in Chapter 20, but luckily finding the leader — who gives you an ammo (Reaver) upgrade — of this chapter is not one of the most difficult challenges it offers. Your main goal in the first segment of this chapter is to destroy the Siege Towers. Following this objective will inevitably lead you to the left part of the map where there is a red zone with a crowned skull icon. By getting there, you will find the leader. This time a Komodo is the leader, a quite challenging enemy to face. Focus on clearing the area of other large enemies and, when facing the Komodo, focus on parrying their attacks. They unleash long sequences of attacks so learn them to know the right moment to fight back. Reckoning (Chapter 22) There’s one last leader in Doom: The Dark Ages for you to hunt down. You can find them by reaching the last red zone on the top side of the map. Once you claim their Demonic Essence, you will receive an ammo (Launcher) upgrade. There are some tough fights before you can reach the place, so be prepared. The leader of Chapter 22 is a Cyberdemon and they are in their regular version, so you know what to do. Get close to them, parry their attacks, and hit the Cyberdemon hard. They have a morale bar, forcing you to fight a Komodo and other strong demons before the final encounter.
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  • A Roguelite Deckbuilder Where I'm An Exorcist Detective Fighting Demons? Yes, Please

    Malys is quite the surprise as a follow-up to Summerfall Studios' first game, Stray Gods: A Roleplaying Musical. Rather than craft another superb choice-driven visual novel with an emphasis on music and Greek myth, Summerfall's next game is a turn-based roguelite deckbuilder set in a demon-filled city. The tone looks to be far darker and there's a lot more to the gameplay this time around, but much like Summerfall Studios' first game, Malys looks like a visual delight and features characters I desperately want to get to know."There was an initial question, do we want to do this more as a visual novel, more like Stray Gods?" Summerfall creative director David Gaider told me during an exclusive gameplay preview of Malys. "Because Stray Gods did not have much in the way of gameplay, we wanted to try something that has more gameplay to prove that we're a studio that can do something that's fun and still narrative-driven but that has a very strong gameplay loop at its heart."Even the weaker demons can pack a punch.In Malys, you play as a former priest turned exorcist named Noah. He's striving to cross the entirety of a city to reach a major demon waiting for him on the other side, but lesser demons block his path. Each confrontation has a chance of wearing on Noah's will, and if it is fully depleted, he collapses, only to awaken back at the start of his journey with a time reset. These time loops allow Noah to better prepare for future runs and gain the trust of citizens, but he isn't the only one who remembers everything that transpires with every loop: A mysterious celestial, a powerful occultist, and a seemingly friendly masked demon are immune to the time rewinds, too.Continue Reading at GameSpot
    #roguelite #deckbuilder #where #i039m #exorcist
    A Roguelite Deckbuilder Where I'm An Exorcist Detective Fighting Demons? Yes, Please
    Malys is quite the surprise as a follow-up to Summerfall Studios' first game, Stray Gods: A Roleplaying Musical. Rather than craft another superb choice-driven visual novel with an emphasis on music and Greek myth, Summerfall's next game is a turn-based roguelite deckbuilder set in a demon-filled city. The tone looks to be far darker and there's a lot more to the gameplay this time around, but much like Summerfall Studios' first game, Malys looks like a visual delight and features characters I desperately want to get to know."There was an initial question, do we want to do this more as a visual novel, more like Stray Gods?" Summerfall creative director David Gaider told me during an exclusive gameplay preview of Malys. "Because Stray Gods did not have much in the way of gameplay, we wanted to try something that has more gameplay to prove that we're a studio that can do something that's fun and still narrative-driven but that has a very strong gameplay loop at its heart."Even the weaker demons can pack a punch.In Malys, you play as a former priest turned exorcist named Noah. He's striving to cross the entirety of a city to reach a major demon waiting for him on the other side, but lesser demons block his path. Each confrontation has a chance of wearing on Noah's will, and if it is fully depleted, he collapses, only to awaken back at the start of his journey with a time reset. These time loops allow Noah to better prepare for future runs and gain the trust of citizens, but he isn't the only one who remembers everything that transpires with every loop: A mysterious celestial, a powerful occultist, and a seemingly friendly masked demon are immune to the time rewinds, too.Continue Reading at GameSpot #roguelite #deckbuilder #where #i039m #exorcist
    WWW.GAMESPOT.COM
    A Roguelite Deckbuilder Where I'm An Exorcist Detective Fighting Demons? Yes, Please
    Malys is quite the surprise as a follow-up to Summerfall Studios' first game, Stray Gods: A Roleplaying Musical. Rather than craft another superb choice-driven visual novel with an emphasis on music and Greek myth, Summerfall's next game is a turn-based roguelite deckbuilder set in a demon-filled city. The tone looks to be far darker and there's a lot more to the gameplay this time around, but much like Summerfall Studios' first game, Malys looks like a visual delight and features characters I desperately want to get to know."There was an initial question, do we want to do this more as a visual novel, more like Stray Gods?" Summerfall creative director David Gaider told me during an exclusive gameplay preview of Malys. "Because Stray Gods did not have much in the way of gameplay, we wanted to try something that has more gameplay to prove that we're a studio that can do something that's fun and still narrative-driven but that has a very strong gameplay loop at its heart."Even the weaker demons can pack a punch.In Malys, you play as a former priest turned exorcist named Noah. He's striving to cross the entirety of a city to reach a major demon waiting for him on the other side, but lesser demons block his path. Each confrontation has a chance of wearing on Noah's will, and if it is fully depleted, he collapses, only to awaken back at the start of his journey with a time reset. These time loops allow Noah to better prepare for future runs and gain the trust of citizens, but he isn't the only one who remembers everything that transpires with every loop: A mysterious celestial, a powerful occultist, and a seemingly friendly masked demon are immune to the time rewinds, too.Continue Reading at GameSpot
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  • What is VUCA? How to manage in an increasingly unstable world

    The headlines scream it daily: Markets are fluctuating wildly, AI is transforming entire industries overnight, supply chains are fracturing, and the workforce is reshuffling at unprecedented rates. According to the World Economic Forum, 78 million new job opportunities will emerge by 2030, but this comes amid massive workforce transformation, with 77% of employers planning upskilling initiatives while 41% anticipate reductions due to AI automation. All these moving parts are playing out against a global background of financial insecurity, war, climate change, and political disruption.

    The age of anxiety

    Welcome to the age of VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—a concept adopted by the military to describe post-Cold War conditions but now perfectly capturing our business landscape. And here’s the brutal truth. We’re facing this unprecedented VUCA while collectively and perfectly depleted from the trauma of the past five years. A recent American Psychiatric Association survey reveals that 43% of U.S. adults feel more anxious than they did the previous year, with 70% particularly anxious about current events. Research from meQ also finds that depression and anxiety rates are more than four times higher for people who feel least prepared for change.

    This isn’t another challenging period to weather. Chaotic change isn’t a bug in the code we can just rewrite. It’s a fundamental feature of our era, requiring a complete reinvention of our relationship with change itself.

    Why the U in VUCA Hurts So Much Right Now

    In a word, trauma. The pandemic threw us into societal trauma at a level few of us had ever known. Unlike normal adversity, where mental health improves once the challenge passes, the pandemic created persistent mental health issues that have worsened even after the acute phases passed. When it comes to mental health, trauma has a long tail.

    The pandemic delivered a perfect storm of traumatic conditions:

    Chronic and unrelenting. Rather than a sharp, short crisis, it dragged on with no clear endpoint.

    Pervasive impact. It transformed every aspect of life simultaneously—work, relationships, health, finances.

    Global with no escape. You couldn’t get on a plane to avoid it.

    Beyond our control. Individual actions had minimal impact on the overall trajectory.

    Shifting goalposts. Vaccines were promised, then delayed; variants emerged; reopenings were followed by new lockdowns.

    Aversion to Uncertainty

    This roller coaster of false hope and disappointment forced us to experience unrelenting uncertainty, and even in good times, our brains hate uncertainty. In a 2016 University College London study, people experienced more stress and anxiety when facing a 50/50 chance of receiving an electric shock than when facing a 98% certainty of receiving that same shock. Uncertainty was more unbearable than guaranteed pain.

    This preference made evolutionary sense when stability increased the chance of survival. In today’s business environment, it’s a dangerous liability. The fight-flight-freeze responses that helped our ancestors survive short periods of uncertainty now paralyze us in boardrooms, strategy sessions, and daily decision-making. We are not yet equipped to handle the ongoing uncertainty of today’s nonstop change.

    The New Approach to Change

    I often describe our current relationship to change as abusive. Another disruption shakes us off course, and we think “this time will be different,” but it never is. The resulting uncertainty plagues us as much as before, because we haven’t changed our approach.

    Transforming our ingrained fear of uncertainty requires a process that rewrites our own relationship with change. We are then empowered to lead our teams and organizations through this era of VUCA without end.

    Step 1: Reject our old-fashioned beliefs about uncertainty and change

    We all have deep-seated beliefs about how the world should work. I call these Iceberg Beliefs because they’re enormous and largely lie beneath the surface of our awareness. They often define how we react to change. Classic beliefs about change and uncertainty might sound like:

    ●  “If I keep my head down and work hard, certainty should be my reward.”

    ●  “Uncertainty is unbearable and unfair.”

    ●  “The more control I get, the better my life will be.”

    ●  “Steady as she goes wins the race.”

    ●  “Change is frightening. It should be resisted or ignored.”

    We have to discard these beliefs. For one, they’re not accurate. While hard work helps achieve our goals, it brings no guarantee of certainty or constancy. Second, they frame VUCA in a way that’s not useful. VUCA is happening to us all, and “fair”  has nothing to do with it. 

    These beliefs push us to waste our time and energy fighting for an illusion of certainty that will never come. We must reject these naive Icebergs and replace them with beliefs that reflect reality and point to a path ahead.

    Step 2: Reinvent and reimagine our beliefs about uncertainty and change

    Reinventing our relationship with change means rejecting old and tired thinking and constructing new belief systems. We can ease into this by first endorsing beliefs that get us more comfortable with change.

    ●  “Not all uncertainty ends badly. There have been college applications, new jobs, and reorgs that turned out well.”

    ●  “I’ve been through change before, and most of the terrible stuff I worried about at 3 a.m. every night didn’t actually happen.”

    ●  “I am powerless to change change, but I alone have the power to change my relationship with it.”

    Next, we can finally turn the tables on this abusive relationship by edging toward embracing change. We’ll get there with beliefs like “there is no growth without change” and “every change brings opportunity.” We can also recognize that some of life’s most exhilarating moments—falling in love, becoming a parent, getting a promotion, starting a new venture—involve profound uncertainty and change.

    Part of this work must include recalibrating our sense of what is under our control and mapping our sphere of control daily. Trauma distorts our sense of what we can and cannot influence. For example, during the pandemic, I found myself obsessively worrying about my elderly parents’ health in Australia—something I had limited control over—while neglecting my children’s online education happening right in front of me. I was systematically failing to control what I could because I was exhausted trying to control what I couldn’t.

    Step 3: Lead your people through change

    With the threat of uncertainty neutralized and our beliefs about change and control starting to shift, we turn attention outward. How can we react to disruption more productively? And how can we successfully lead the people who count on us through VUCA?

    Practice a growth mindset

    These habits of mind help us see opportunities and stay focused through chaotic disruption. As leaders, we shift our teams’ response to change when we approach challenges with principles such as:

    ●  Abandoning perfectionism.

    ●  Accepting inevitable mistakes.

    ●  Reframing mistakes as progress to value.

    ●  Encouraging creativity without judgment.

    We can also educate our managers in this new approach to change, and help them learn to coach their teams to do the same. When this training happens at scale, our entire workforce is much more equipped to navigate and accelerate through organizational changes.

    Adjust work to the demands of VUCA

    We can’t lead like “business as usual” when VUCA rules. However, with our greater resilience in the face of change, we can skillfully shift workplace expectations and norms to reduce VUCA’s impact, thereby protecting growth and well-being as changes unfold.

    ●  Reduce Volatile Processes. Slow processes down when possible. External forces put a ceiling on how much volatility you can control, but even small reductions help. The greatest athletes visualize the game in slow motion, while they respond in real time. Deal with one thing at a time rather than everything simultaneously.

    ●  Reduce Uncertain Outcomes. While you can’t eliminate uncertainty, take actions today that narrow the field of possible outcomes. That’s why we try to exercise and eat healthfully. While never a guarantee that we’ll dodge illness, it renders that uncertainty small enough to set aside for now.

    ●   Reduce Complex Problems. Break problems into smaller pieces. Think of untangling yarn—start with one strand, simplify it, then move to the next. Organizations like NASA excel at this approach, breaking seemingly impossible challenges into manageable components.

    ●   Reduce Ambiguous Information with Clarity. The U in VUCA is future-directed, while the A—ambiguity—is happening now. During change, people will fill information gaps with their Icebergs and fears. In my research, organizations that fare better during VUCA have transparency of process and open information. It’s widely held in military circles that in a battle, communication is often the first thing to fail. By the time an organization is in VUCA, it’s too late to develop lines of communication. Work now, preemptively, to build strategies to keep your people informed.

    The payoff is clear. Research at meQ shows that most change-ready, resilient, and supported employees are significantly VUCA-proofed, with rates of depression, anxiety, and burnout slashed by around 75% when compared with their less change-ready peers.

    Taking the Power Back from Change

    The ultimate reality? Periods of stability will become increasingly rare. The concept that we just need to get through this “liminal time” before returning to normal is outdated. It’s the brief periods of stability that are now liminal—unusual spaces between the predominant times of change, turmoil, and flux.

    Those who can adapt internally rather than demanding external stability will be best positioned to thrive. The pursuit of stability is a fool’s errand, and what we’re chasing is fool’s gold.

    The only thing at stake is this: Our entire mental health, wellness, happiness, productivity, and performance. It’s time to take back the power in our relationship with change.
    #what #vuca #how #manage #increasingly
    What is VUCA? How to manage in an increasingly unstable world
    The headlines scream it daily: Markets are fluctuating wildly, AI is transforming entire industries overnight, supply chains are fracturing, and the workforce is reshuffling at unprecedented rates. According to the World Economic Forum, 78 million new job opportunities will emerge by 2030, but this comes amid massive workforce transformation, with 77% of employers planning upskilling initiatives while 41% anticipate reductions due to AI automation. All these moving parts are playing out against a global background of financial insecurity, war, climate change, and political disruption. The age of anxiety Welcome to the age of VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—a concept adopted by the military to describe post-Cold War conditions but now perfectly capturing our business landscape. And here’s the brutal truth. We’re facing this unprecedented VUCA while collectively and perfectly depleted from the trauma of the past five years. A recent American Psychiatric Association survey reveals that 43% of U.S. adults feel more anxious than they did the previous year, with 70% particularly anxious about current events. Research from meQ also finds that depression and anxiety rates are more than four times higher for people who feel least prepared for change. This isn’t another challenging period to weather. Chaotic change isn’t a bug in the code we can just rewrite. It’s a fundamental feature of our era, requiring a complete reinvention of our relationship with change itself. Why the U in VUCA Hurts So Much Right Now In a word, trauma. The pandemic threw us into societal trauma at a level few of us had ever known. Unlike normal adversity, where mental health improves once the challenge passes, the pandemic created persistent mental health issues that have worsened even after the acute phases passed. When it comes to mental health, trauma has a long tail. The pandemic delivered a perfect storm of traumatic conditions: Chronic and unrelenting. Rather than a sharp, short crisis, it dragged on with no clear endpoint. Pervasive impact. It transformed every aspect of life simultaneously—work, relationships, health, finances. Global with no escape. You couldn’t get on a plane to avoid it. Beyond our control. Individual actions had minimal impact on the overall trajectory. Shifting goalposts. Vaccines were promised, then delayed; variants emerged; reopenings were followed by new lockdowns. Aversion to Uncertainty This roller coaster of false hope and disappointment forced us to experience unrelenting uncertainty, and even in good times, our brains hate uncertainty. In a 2016 University College London study, people experienced more stress and anxiety when facing a 50/50 chance of receiving an electric shock than when facing a 98% certainty of receiving that same shock. Uncertainty was more unbearable than guaranteed pain. This preference made evolutionary sense when stability increased the chance of survival. In today’s business environment, it’s a dangerous liability. The fight-flight-freeze responses that helped our ancestors survive short periods of uncertainty now paralyze us in boardrooms, strategy sessions, and daily decision-making. We are not yet equipped to handle the ongoing uncertainty of today’s nonstop change. The New Approach to Change I often describe our current relationship to change as abusive. Another disruption shakes us off course, and we think “this time will be different,” but it never is. The resulting uncertainty plagues us as much as before, because we haven’t changed our approach. Transforming our ingrained fear of uncertainty requires a process that rewrites our own relationship with change. We are then empowered to lead our teams and organizations through this era of VUCA without end. Step 1: Reject our old-fashioned beliefs about uncertainty and change We all have deep-seated beliefs about how the world should work. I call these Iceberg Beliefs because they’re enormous and largely lie beneath the surface of our awareness. They often define how we react to change. Classic beliefs about change and uncertainty might sound like: ●  “If I keep my head down and work hard, certainty should be my reward.” ●  “Uncertainty is unbearable and unfair.” ●  “The more control I get, the better my life will be.” ●  “Steady as she goes wins the race.” ●  “Change is frightening. It should be resisted or ignored.” We have to discard these beliefs. For one, they’re not accurate. While hard work helps achieve our goals, it brings no guarantee of certainty or constancy. Second, they frame VUCA in a way that’s not useful. VUCA is happening to us all, and “fair”  has nothing to do with it.  These beliefs push us to waste our time and energy fighting for an illusion of certainty that will never come. We must reject these naive Icebergs and replace them with beliefs that reflect reality and point to a path ahead. Step 2: Reinvent and reimagine our beliefs about uncertainty and change Reinventing our relationship with change means rejecting old and tired thinking and constructing new belief systems. We can ease into this by first endorsing beliefs that get us more comfortable with change. ●  “Not all uncertainty ends badly. There have been college applications, new jobs, and reorgs that turned out well.” ●  “I’ve been through change before, and most of the terrible stuff I worried about at 3 a.m. every night didn’t actually happen.” ●  “I am powerless to change change, but I alone have the power to change my relationship with it.” Next, we can finally turn the tables on this abusive relationship by edging toward embracing change. We’ll get there with beliefs like “there is no growth without change” and “every change brings opportunity.” We can also recognize that some of life’s most exhilarating moments—falling in love, becoming a parent, getting a promotion, starting a new venture—involve profound uncertainty and change. Part of this work must include recalibrating our sense of what is under our control and mapping our sphere of control daily. Trauma distorts our sense of what we can and cannot influence. For example, during the pandemic, I found myself obsessively worrying about my elderly parents’ health in Australia—something I had limited control over—while neglecting my children’s online education happening right in front of me. I was systematically failing to control what I could because I was exhausted trying to control what I couldn’t. Step 3: Lead your people through change With the threat of uncertainty neutralized and our beliefs about change and control starting to shift, we turn attention outward. How can we react to disruption more productively? And how can we successfully lead the people who count on us through VUCA? Practice a growth mindset These habits of mind help us see opportunities and stay focused through chaotic disruption. As leaders, we shift our teams’ response to change when we approach challenges with principles such as: ●  Abandoning perfectionism. ●  Accepting inevitable mistakes. ●  Reframing mistakes as progress to value. ●  Encouraging creativity without judgment. We can also educate our managers in this new approach to change, and help them learn to coach their teams to do the same. When this training happens at scale, our entire workforce is much more equipped to navigate and accelerate through organizational changes. Adjust work to the demands of VUCA We can’t lead like “business as usual” when VUCA rules. However, with our greater resilience in the face of change, we can skillfully shift workplace expectations and norms to reduce VUCA’s impact, thereby protecting growth and well-being as changes unfold. ●  Reduce Volatile Processes. Slow processes down when possible. External forces put a ceiling on how much volatility you can control, but even small reductions help. The greatest athletes visualize the game in slow motion, while they respond in real time. Deal with one thing at a time rather than everything simultaneously. ●  Reduce Uncertain Outcomes. While you can’t eliminate uncertainty, take actions today that narrow the field of possible outcomes. That’s why we try to exercise and eat healthfully. While never a guarantee that we’ll dodge illness, it renders that uncertainty small enough to set aside for now. ●   Reduce Complex Problems. Break problems into smaller pieces. Think of untangling yarn—start with one strand, simplify it, then move to the next. Organizations like NASA excel at this approach, breaking seemingly impossible challenges into manageable components. ●   Reduce Ambiguous Information with Clarity. The U in VUCA is future-directed, while the A—ambiguity—is happening now. During change, people will fill information gaps with their Icebergs and fears. In my research, organizations that fare better during VUCA have transparency of process and open information. It’s widely held in military circles that in a battle, communication is often the first thing to fail. By the time an organization is in VUCA, it’s too late to develop lines of communication. Work now, preemptively, to build strategies to keep your people informed. The payoff is clear. Research at meQ shows that most change-ready, resilient, and supported employees are significantly VUCA-proofed, with rates of depression, anxiety, and burnout slashed by around 75% when compared with their less change-ready peers. Taking the Power Back from Change The ultimate reality? Periods of stability will become increasingly rare. The concept that we just need to get through this “liminal time” before returning to normal is outdated. It’s the brief periods of stability that are now liminal—unusual spaces between the predominant times of change, turmoil, and flux. Those who can adapt internally rather than demanding external stability will be best positioned to thrive. The pursuit of stability is a fool’s errand, and what we’re chasing is fool’s gold. The only thing at stake is this: Our entire mental health, wellness, happiness, productivity, and performance. It’s time to take back the power in our relationship with change. #what #vuca #how #manage #increasingly
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    What is VUCA? How to manage in an increasingly unstable world
    The headlines scream it daily: Markets are fluctuating wildly, AI is transforming entire industries overnight, supply chains are fracturing, and the workforce is reshuffling at unprecedented rates. According to the World Economic Forum, 78 million new job opportunities will emerge by 2030, but this comes amid massive workforce transformation, with 77% of employers planning upskilling initiatives while 41% anticipate reductions due to AI automation. All these moving parts are playing out against a global background of financial insecurity, war, climate change, and political disruption. The age of anxiety Welcome to the age of VUCA—volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—a concept adopted by the military to describe post-Cold War conditions but now perfectly capturing our business landscape. And here’s the brutal truth. We’re facing this unprecedented VUCA while collectively and perfectly depleted from the trauma of the past five years. A recent American Psychiatric Association survey reveals that 43% of U.S. adults feel more anxious than they did the previous year, with 70% particularly anxious about current events. Research from meQ also finds that depression and anxiety rates are more than four times higher for people who feel least prepared for change. This isn’t another challenging period to weather. Chaotic change isn’t a bug in the code we can just rewrite. It’s a fundamental feature of our era, requiring a complete reinvention of our relationship with change itself. Why the U in VUCA Hurts So Much Right Now In a word, trauma. The pandemic threw us into societal trauma at a level few of us had ever known. Unlike normal adversity, where mental health improves once the challenge passes, the pandemic created persistent mental health issues that have worsened even after the acute phases passed. When it comes to mental health, trauma has a long tail. The pandemic delivered a perfect storm of traumatic conditions: Chronic and unrelenting. Rather than a sharp, short crisis, it dragged on with no clear endpoint. Pervasive impact. It transformed every aspect of life simultaneously—work, relationships, health, finances. Global with no escape. You couldn’t get on a plane to avoid it. Beyond our control. Individual actions had minimal impact on the overall trajectory. Shifting goalposts. Vaccines were promised, then delayed; variants emerged; reopenings were followed by new lockdowns. Aversion to Uncertainty This roller coaster of false hope and disappointment forced us to experience unrelenting uncertainty, and even in good times, our brains hate uncertainty. In a 2016 University College London study, people experienced more stress and anxiety when facing a 50/50 chance of receiving an electric shock than when facing a 98% certainty of receiving that same shock. Uncertainty was more unbearable than guaranteed pain. This preference made evolutionary sense when stability increased the chance of survival. In today’s business environment, it’s a dangerous liability. The fight-flight-freeze responses that helped our ancestors survive short periods of uncertainty now paralyze us in boardrooms, strategy sessions, and daily decision-making. We are not yet equipped to handle the ongoing uncertainty of today’s nonstop change. The New Approach to Change I often describe our current relationship to change as abusive. Another disruption shakes us off course, and we think “this time will be different,” but it never is. The resulting uncertainty plagues us as much as before, because we haven’t changed our approach. Transforming our ingrained fear of uncertainty requires a process that rewrites our own relationship with change. We are then empowered to lead our teams and organizations through this era of VUCA without end. Step 1: Reject our old-fashioned beliefs about uncertainty and change We all have deep-seated beliefs about how the world should work. I call these Iceberg Beliefs because they’re enormous and largely lie beneath the surface of our awareness. They often define how we react to change. Classic beliefs about change and uncertainty might sound like: ●  “If I keep my head down and work hard, certainty should be my reward.” ●  “Uncertainty is unbearable and unfair.” ●  “The more control I get, the better my life will be.” ●  “Steady as she goes wins the race.” ●  “Change is frightening. It should be resisted or ignored.” We have to discard these beliefs. For one, they’re not accurate. While hard work helps achieve our goals, it brings no guarantee of certainty or constancy. Second, they frame VUCA in a way that’s not useful. VUCA is happening to us all, and “fair”  has nothing to do with it.  These beliefs push us to waste our time and energy fighting for an illusion of certainty that will never come. We must reject these naive Icebergs and replace them with beliefs that reflect reality and point to a path ahead. Step 2: Reinvent and reimagine our beliefs about uncertainty and change Reinventing our relationship with change means rejecting old and tired thinking and constructing new belief systems. We can ease into this by first endorsing beliefs that get us more comfortable with change. ●  “Not all uncertainty ends badly. There have been college applications, new jobs, and reorgs that turned out well.” ●  “I’ve been through change before, and most of the terrible stuff I worried about at 3 a.m. every night didn’t actually happen.” ●  “I am powerless to change change, but I alone have the power to change my relationship with it.” Next, we can finally turn the tables on this abusive relationship by edging toward embracing change. We’ll get there with beliefs like “there is no growth without change” and “every change brings opportunity.” We can also recognize that some of life’s most exhilarating moments—falling in love, becoming a parent, getting a promotion, starting a new venture—involve profound uncertainty and change. Part of this work must include recalibrating our sense of what is under our control and mapping our sphere of control daily. Trauma distorts our sense of what we can and cannot influence. For example, during the pandemic, I found myself obsessively worrying about my elderly parents’ health in Australia—something I had limited control over—while neglecting my children’s online education happening right in front of me. I was systematically failing to control what I could because I was exhausted trying to control what I couldn’t. Step 3: Lead your people through change With the threat of uncertainty neutralized and our beliefs about change and control starting to shift, we turn attention outward. How can we react to disruption more productively? And how can we successfully lead the people who count on us through VUCA? Practice a growth mindset These habits of mind help us see opportunities and stay focused through chaotic disruption. As leaders, we shift our teams’ response to change when we approach challenges with principles such as: ●  Abandoning perfectionism. ●  Accepting inevitable mistakes. ●  Reframing mistakes as progress to value. ●  Encouraging creativity without judgment. We can also educate our managers in this new approach to change, and help them learn to coach their teams to do the same. When this training happens at scale, our entire workforce is much more equipped to navigate and accelerate through organizational changes. Adjust work to the demands of VUCA We can’t lead like “business as usual” when VUCA rules. However, with our greater resilience in the face of change, we can skillfully shift workplace expectations and norms to reduce VUCA’s impact, thereby protecting growth and well-being as changes unfold. ●  Reduce Volatile Processes. Slow processes down when possible. External forces put a ceiling on how much volatility you can control, but even small reductions help. The greatest athletes visualize the game in slow motion, while they respond in real time. Deal with one thing at a time rather than everything simultaneously. ●  Reduce Uncertain Outcomes. While you can’t eliminate uncertainty, take actions today that narrow the field of possible outcomes. That’s why we try to exercise and eat healthfully. While never a guarantee that we’ll dodge illness, it renders that uncertainty small enough to set aside for now. ●   Reduce Complex Problems. Break problems into smaller pieces. Think of untangling yarn—start with one strand, simplify it, then move to the next. Organizations like NASA excel at this approach, breaking seemingly impossible challenges into manageable components. ●   Reduce Ambiguous Information with Clarity. The U in VUCA is future-directed, while the A—ambiguity—is happening now. During change, people will fill information gaps with their Icebergs and fears. In my research, organizations that fare better during VUCA have transparency of process and open information. It’s widely held in military circles that in a battle, communication is often the first thing to fail. By the time an organization is in VUCA, it’s too late to develop lines of communication. Work now, preemptively, to build strategies to keep your people informed. The payoff is clear. Research at meQ shows that most change-ready, resilient, and supported employees are significantly VUCA-proofed, with rates of depression, anxiety, and burnout slashed by around 75% when compared with their less change-ready peers. Taking the Power Back from Change The ultimate reality? Periods of stability will become increasingly rare. The concept that we just need to get through this “liminal time” before returning to normal is outdated. It’s the brief periods of stability that are now liminal—unusual spaces between the predominant times of change, turmoil, and flux. Those who can adapt internally rather than demanding external stability will be best positioned to thrive. The pursuit of stability is a fool’s errand, and what we’re chasing is fool’s gold. The only thing at stake is this: Our entire mental health, wellness, happiness, productivity, and performance. It’s time to take back the power in our relationship with change.
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