It's 2025!gettyIts time to offer up some predictions for 2025. Spoiler alert, theyre not particularly positive expectations, for the economy or public health. But before I get to that, a few words on prognosticating. Crystal ball gazing is invariably a dubious activity, especially in areas such as the economy, public health and politics that are so prone to confounding factors. Despite this, it can be a useful exercise. And its interesting to analyze from year to year what I predicted correctly and what I got wrong.As a health economist writing on the Forbes platform, my so-called swim lanes are healthcare and public health. But given the impact that politics and the economy have on the healthcare sector I also closely follow developments in the United States and global economy and political sphere. Well start there.I thought Trump would fairly easily win the presidential election. Also, just as in my 2022 and 2023 forecasts, I predicted that the economy wouldnt go into recession in 2024 but that inflation also wouldnt come down to 2% and would slowly rise again by the end of the year. While I was off by a few decimal points on the unemployment figure, I did forecast diminishing job gains by the 4th quarter.If Trump makes good on his promises, my economic outlook for 2025 includes reduced growth, modestly rising unemployment and elevated inflation. As tariffs take hold, inflation will continue to tick upward towards 4% on an annual basis by years end. A possibly more problematic feature could be the impact tariffs have on the U.S. industries that are reliant on imported raw materials and semi-finished products. I foresee a stalling of manufacturing and an increase in unemployment, edging up to 5.5% or maybe even 6% by the end of the year. The economy wont technically be in recession, but its growth may diminish to a sluggish 1% by the 4th quarter.Deportation of undocumented workers could lead to rising nominal wages. In itself higher wages are good. But they can also exacerbate the problem of inflation, as companies pass on higher labor costs onto consumers. Austerity measures, including diminished government investment, may take a toll on the economy, along with stubbornly high interest rates. I expect the average 30-year mortgage rate to rise to over 7% by years end. And whats perhaps more detrimental to the economys prospects is the high degree of uncertainty, domestically and abroad.MORE FOR YOUThe shake-up within the healthcare establishment in the federal government under the next Trump administration could cause enhanced vaccine hesitancy, a slowing down of infectious disease drug development and a renewed push for international price referencing for prescription drugs in Medicare.The Food and Drug Administrations novel approvals numbered 50 in 2024, comparable to the the figure of 55 in 2023. Given whats in the pipeline, next years numbers will likely be similarly robust with a continued dominance of cancer and orphan disease drugs and therapies.The bigger story with prescription drugs, however, may be their historically high launch prices. For well over a decade, theres been a sharply upward trajectory in the launch prices of newly marketed brand-name drugs. The median annual list price for a newly approved drug was $300,000 in 2023, according to a Reuters analysis of 47 medicines, up from $222,000 a year before. Though once the numbers for 2024 are fully analyzed the increase in price wont be quite as steep, the upward trend will probably continue into the foreseeable future.The failure to include pharmaceutical pricing reforms in the end-of-year continuing resolution in 2024, despite apparent bipartisan support, may be a sign of further political fracturing among lawmakers in 2025. The legislation cut from the continuing resolution included drug patent reform addressed at reducing the number of patents pharmaceutical companies can claim regarding biologics; delinking of pharmacy benefit manager revenue from drug prices in Medicare, curbing incentives that can lead PBMs to steer patients toward more expensive medicines; and transparency requirements that mandate PBM reporting to Medicare on drug pricing and other information.A modest rebound in life expectancy in 2023 is welcome news, but the U.S. still lags far behind all of its peers. For decades the U.S. has failed to effectively address its major public health issues that are primary causes of sluggish growth in life expectancy. These include extraordinarily high numbers of deaths from fentanyl and other illicit drugs, worsening infant and maternal mortality and increasing numbers of traffic deaths, suicides and gun fatalities, as well as sustained high levels of mortality attributed to obesity.As the Make America Healthy Again movement under RFK Jr. gains in visibility, there will be proposed changes on the nutrition front, But judging from past experiences, it could turn out to be largely symbolic.Banning a food additive here or there or the use of certain pesticides wont get us to where we want to go. While welcome policy measures, theyre not core issues underlying obesity and chronic disease in America. The fundamental problems relate to a relatively poor diet in America and portion sizes that are disproportionately large, as well as a general lack of everyday physical exercise.Furthermore, while RFK Jr. talks about the need to change what we eat and introduce more physical activity into our daily routine, this isnt new. Others before him in other administrations have done so, to no avail. It would take an unlikely revolution to alter ingrained habits, but also the food and beverage industries business practices.More importantly, overall, fewer resources are being allocated to disease prevention and preventive causes of premature deaths. Public healths share of total health expenditures has been falling for two decades, from 3.18% in 2002 to 2.40% in 2023. I dont see any signs of a reversal on the horizon, especially in light of a second term for Trump.Moreover, the persistent problems of un- and underinsurance will worsen and exacerbate already existing inequities in the healthcare system.Going forward, a politically polarized country isnt a recipe for positive change with respect to healthcare and public health. To be sure, money will still be made in the healthcare sector, but this wont necessarily benefit public health.

The big picture: For decades, robotic spacecraft have traversed the solar system, enduring extreme environments that are utterly inhospitable to humans. The Parker Solar Probe, for instance, braved scorching temperatures exceeding 1,800F during its 10-day flyby of the Sun. These extraordinary achievements, coupled with rapid advancements in AI, prompt a compelling question: do we even need human astronauts for future space exploration? Some leading scientists who spoke to the BBC believe the role of humans in space exploration will diminish over time. The UK's Astronomer Royal, Lord Martin Rees, told the publication that rapid advancements in robotics are reducing the need to send humans into space using "taxpayer's money."Indeed, human spaceflight is significantly more expensive than robotic missions. For example, the 2021 Perseverance Rover mission cost approximately $2.7 billion, covering development, launch, and operations. In contrast, sending humans to Mars is estimated to cost $100 billion or more.Rees even argues that the only justification for human space travel in the future would be as a privately funded adventure for wealthy elites.Andrew Coates, a physicist at University College London, also champions robotic missions over human ones. He noted that robotic probes can travel farther and achieve more than human missions, with their potential only set to grow as AI technology advances.Nvidia recently predicted that the robotics market is on the brink of explosive growth, akin to the rise of AI chatbots. Like many tech giants, the company is heavily investing in advanced humanoid robot development, which could accelerate their deployment in space exploration.Dr. Kelly Weinersmith, a biologist at Rice University, appears to side with human-led missions. She argued in the report that maintaining a human presence in space carries significant national prestige, demonstrating that "your political system is effective and your people are brilliant." // Related StoriesThe scientific research angle also supports human involvement. Astronauts conduct invaluable experiments aboard orbital laboratories like the International Space Station. However, robots excel in environments that are hostile to human life, such as the surfaces and atmospheres of other planets.As a result, many scientists advocate for a balanced approach. Humanoid robots equipped with dexterous limbs and AI assistants could handle repetitive maintenance tasks. Dr. Shaun Azimi of NASA's Johnson Space Center suggested these robots could be especially useful for jobs like replacing components or cleaning solar panels.So, where does generative AI fit into this vision? While powerful language models could play a role, current robotic rovers lack the computational power to run them effectively. One scientist noted that the processors in Mars rovers are roughly one-tenth as powerful as those in a smartphone. However, technological breakthroughs like "BitNet" might eventually make such applications feasible.

Facepalm: Well, this is certainly an embarrassing blunder for Kia. The Korean automaker has been forced to recall nearly 23,000 of its brand-new EV9 electric SUVs in the US market after discovering that the rear seats were improperly installed. A total of 22,883 EV9 models built at Kia's plant in Gwangmyeong, South Korea, between September 25, 2023, and October 15, 2024, may be missing mounting bolts for the second and/or third-row seats. This information comes from documents filed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).Interestingly, Kia's report places the blame squarely on a single "plant assembly worker" who allegedly made an "error" and failed to properly secure all the seat bolts on an unspecified number of vehicles.The issue first surfaced in September when a customer reported that the third-row seats in their 2024 EV9 were not properly mounted due to missing bolts. Shortly afterward, Kia identified a second affected vehicle in the US.In an effort to determine the extent of the issue, Kia inspected 90 randomly selected EV9s imported from its South Korean factory. Surprisingly, none of the inspected vehicles were found to have missing or loose seat mounting hardware.After being alerted by its Korean operations about the error linked to the two US cases, Kia opted to issue a recall for nearly 23,000 EV9s, including those already delivered to customers or awaiting shipment. An additional 990 units still awaiting delivery were inspected, with none found to have the seat bolt problem. // Related StoriesWhile the NHTSA report doesn't specify how many bolts may be missing in affected vehicles, the primary concern is that improperly mounted seats could detach in the event of a crash, increasing the risk of passenger injury.To address the issue, Kia dealers will inspect the second and third-row seats on all recalled models and tighten or install any missing mounting bolts free of charge. Since the affected vehicles were not built consecutively, owners are advised to check with their local dealer to confirm whether their EV9 is part of the recall.

African wildcats seem to have been part of the human diet in the Levant 10,000 years agoNSP-RF/AlamyAbout 10,000 years ago, foxes and wildcats made up a notable part of peoples diets in what is now Western Galilee in Israel.Archaeologists have long attributed the abundance of small carnivore bones in early Levant settlements to people harvesting fur and to symbolic associations like tooth ornaments.But now, Shirad Galmor, while at Tel Aviv University in Israel, and her colleagues have found

I had my first child when I was 25. After she grew up, my husband suggested we have another baby. At 45, I had our second daughter, and in a way, they are both only children. I had my first child, Daniella, at 25. Before her, I'd had a mobile disco a business as glittery as a mirror ball and twice as busy. It had included children's parties, which meant I'd always had a miniature audience to charm and exhaust. With my own child, there were mermaids to marvel at and karaoke duets for me to sing to. Daniella, or Danny as she preferred, was a pint-sized marvel a firework in the shape of a child. Life became a permanent source of fun, an unending string of confetti-covered moments, usually cut out and scattered by Danny.At 45, I had my second child, and in a way, they were both only children. Danny had a life of her ownBirthday cakes came in garish shades, sunken in last-minute mishaps, and filled with jelly to create an animal pond. I carved Halloween pumpkins with the determination and skill of a blindfolded drunk, but Danny was thrilled. There were talking teddy bears who secretly ate the shortbread, red-haired trolls with a knack for gobbling chocolate cake, and ornamental reindeer with noses as red as toffee apples. Of course, there was Santa, the magical burglar who could sneak into houses with locked doors and chimney spouts the size of a fist. We'd whisper about presents as we sat with sticky tape and wrapping paper. I was the queen of glue and glitter.And then Danny grew up, fell in love, and became a digital artist with an Instagram account that made my head spin. Friends assured me I had a rich repository of memories to draw on, but memory isn't a substitute for presence. It's a snow globe with no one to shake it or an unexpected pang when you see the cooldrink you no longer need to buy. I watched other people's children grow up through the slow-motion lens of social media, and there it was a niggling that felt embarrassingly like jealousy. I was thrilled for Danny and gutted for myself. Danny and I were still close, but for me, the glitter of childhood had all settled.My husband suggested a baby in our 40sSo when my husband mentioned that a baby would be the cherry on top of our very fine cake, I was thrilled. Who wouldn't be? We were happy, settled, and crucially I'd stopped trying to discover who I was in every reflective surface. A baby felt like a dream. And, remarkably, at 45, we got our miracle. A July lockdown baby, no less born into a world of masks and hand sanitizer, where a mask muffled first lullabies. We called her Ava, a name suggested by her sister. From the moment she arrived, she's had a fire in her soul.Ava's magic is in how she makes you move. Not just physically, though, she's certainly skilled at getting you off the chair, even if it takes a few extra groans and strategic knee adjustments now that we're in our 40s. No, she makes you really move heart and soul. She's the kind of child who laughs with her head thrown back because the puppy is so wild. Life with her is loud, chaotic, and utterly worth it.They are both only childrenIn many ways, my children are both only children, separated by the better part of two decades and united by a shared adoration. From the first moment Ava entered Danny's world a whirlwind of peanut-buttered hands and chaotic affection they've been inseparable. Ava chased Danny's dignified cat through the house with a fistful of purloined kibble, an act of high comedy Danny met not with outrage but with handmade toys and laughter. Ava repaid her with sticky hugs and the kind of uninhibited love only toddlers can muster.Raising a child in your 20s is like being handed a surprise pop quiz every morning you're winging it, caffeinated and hopeful. Raising a toddler in your 40s is more like showing up to an exam you know well, only to find the questions have changed and the paper is heavier. Parenting Ava is both easier and infinitely more exhausting. I'm more relaxed, yes, but my knees would very much like a word.Still, there's joy in both seasons of motherhood: the first, wide-eyed and frantic, and the second, measured but no less magical. I've made cakes that flop in both eras but don't care much for perfection. And the best part? The nest isn't empty. It's full of laughter, peanut butter smears, and life.

I work at Coach as a sales associate, and spotting fake bags is pretty easy.I often check the story patches and hang tags to see if a bag is actually authentic.Fake purses usually have sloppy stitching and too-shiny, lightweight hardware.I've been a fan of Coach for a while, and I now work as a sales associate for the brand.I wasn't fully taught how to spot fake bags during my training process, but I've found many employees learn as they go. Throughout my time with Coach, I've encountered a few fakes, and spotting them is easier than you might think.There are exceptions for example, some types of Coach bags don't have style patches or were released before the hang tag became a staple but here's what I look for when authenticating a bag.Story patches are a key feature of most Coach bagsMost Coach bags have a leather creed or story patch, which is a leather patch inside a bag that's embossed with the bag's serial number and history.Some people try to make fakes of these patches, but they don't really work.One time, a customer brought in a bag for repair. When inspecting it to find the bag style, I noticed the story patch had a serial number that had never existed in the Coach database.The leather and material of the bag can help me determine if a bag is fake I've gotten good at being able to feel the quality of a Coach bag in my hands. Isabella Merchan Quality and material play a big factor in determining a fake.First, I check the material of the hang tag, which every Coach bag has come with for decades.An authentic bag should have a tag made of the exact leather used on the bag. It should also feel thick. To me, a flimsy, low-quality hang tag often screams a bag is fake: The leather often doesn't match the bag and is very thin.If you choose to remove a hang tag from your real Coach bag, you might want to hold onto it anyway to help prove authenticity later on.Also, just touching a bag can be telling. For example, fakes I've seen of the popular Tabby bag, which has a "C" on the front, has leather that isn't pebbled or smooth and buttery it has a plastic-y feel.It's also good to compare the bag's color to the official Coach listings online. Fakes tend not to be quite the right shade.I check for sloppy stitching and edgesCoach takes pride in the craftsmanship of its products, especially when it comes to its edges, stitches, and zippers.When looking for a fake, I look at the edges and tips of the bags since that's where the sloppy overstitching tends to be most visible.Most times, when a fake comes in, the stitching is very sloppy and/or crooked.Hardware often makes the real bags heavier Many Coach bags have brass hardware, not gold-plated pieces. Isabella Merchan Hardware seems to be a giveaway for a lot of fakes I've seen, even when it comes to other high-end bag brands. Sometimes I can spot a fake just by looking at its clips and clasps.One of Coach's main choices of hardware is brass, which isn't very shiny. However, a lot of fakes I see have plated-gold hardware, which looks super bright and shiny.Brass and nickel, another popular Coach choice also tends to be heavier, so I've found many fake bags are lighter in weight.When in doubt, check your sourcesBuying directly from Coach is a safe bet if you want an authentic bag.Other trustworthy sites include Coach.com, Coachoutlet.com, and department stores that are official Coach retailers.If you're shopping secondhand, make sure to research who you may be purchasing from and how they authenticate items.This story was originally published on February 29, 2024, and most recently updated on January 1, 2025.

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